0xd1e1…69a6

Прибыльный

Эдж

+18.7pp

ROI

+27%

Доля побед

47% @ 28.2¢

Brier

0.195

Сделок

Ср. размер

$190

Специализация по сферам

Сфера	Попадания	ROI	Ставки
Политика	27% (3/11)	-4%	11
Other	40% (2/5)	-6%	5
Геополитика	50% (1/2)	+990%	2

Политика11 ставки
Попадания
27% (3/11)
ROI
-4%
Other5 ставки
Попадания
40% (2/5)
ROI
-6%
Геополитика2 ставки
Попадания
50% (1/2)
ROI
+990%

История результатов

33% попаданий · 6/18

Рынок	Исход	Размер	Вход	Итог
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 10?	Yes	$100	3.5¢	Поражение
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	Yes	$300	13.5¢	Победа
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	$1.3k	50.0¢	Победа
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	$103	35.0¢	Поражение
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$500	19.1¢	Поражение
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.3% and 4.6%?	Yes	$157	7.2¢	Победа
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	No	$52	52.0¢	Поражение
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	No	$66	57.0¢	Победа
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$103	47.0¢	Победа
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10?	No	$100	9.9¢	Поражение
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	$2.3k	9.4¢	Поражение
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	Yes	$42	42.0¢	Поражение
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?	Yes	$100	2.4¢	Поражение
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	$400	7.6¢	Поражение
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country?	Yes	$104	11.7¢	Поражение
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	$100	1.7¢	Поражение
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$2	1.0¢	Поражение
Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 5.0% and 5.5%?	Yes	$289	57.8¢	Победа

Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 10?Поражение
Yes$100 @ 3.5¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Победа
Yes$300 @ 13.5¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?Победа
No$1.3k @ 50.0¢
Will Trump visit China by May 15?Поражение
No$103 @ 35.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?Поражение
Yes$500 @ 19.1¢
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.3% and 4.6%?Победа
Yes$157 @ 7.2¢
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?Поражение
No$52 @ 52.0¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?Победа
No$66 @ 57.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Победа
Yes$103 @ 47.0¢
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10?Поражение
No$100 @ 9.9¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?Поражение
Yes$2.3k @ 9.4¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?Поражение
Yes$42 @ 42.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?Поражение
Yes$100 @ 2.4¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Поражение
Yes$400 @ 7.6¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country?Поражение
Yes$104 @ 11.7¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Поражение
No$100 @ 1.7¢
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?Поражение
Yes$2 @ 1.0¢
Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 5.0% and 5.5%?Победа
Yes$289 @ 57.8¢

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Текущие позиции

Рынок	Сфера	Исход	Размер	Вход
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Политика	Yes	$699	8.8¢
Will China GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 4.3% and 4.6%?	Геополитика	Yes	$150	46.1¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?Политика
Yes$699 @ 8.8¢
Will China GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 4.3% and 4.6%?Геополитика
Yes$150 @ 46.1¢