0xcd96…cbdc

Прибыльный

Эдж

+2.9pp

ROI

+4%

Доля побед

48% @ 44.7¢

Brier

0.217

Сделок

3273

Ср. размер

$48

Специализация по сферам

Сфера	Попадания	ROI	Ставки
Политика	49% (33/67)	+8%	67
Технологии	48% (25/52)	+3%	52
Other	41% (20/49)	-10%	49
Геополитика	50% (12/24)	+4%	24
Крипто	67% (2/3)	+91%	3
Спорт	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Наука	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Политика67 ставки
Попадания
49% (33/67)
ROI
+8%
Технологии52 ставки
Попадания
48% (25/52)
ROI
+3%
Other49 ставки
Попадания
41% (20/49)
ROI
-10%
Геополитика24 ставки
Попадания
50% (12/24)
ROI
+4%
Крипто3 ставки
Попадания
67% (2/3)
ROI
+91%
Спорт1 ставки
Попадания
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Наука1 ставки
Попадания
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

История результатов

47% попаданий · 92/197

Рынок	Исход	Размер	Вход	Итог
Tread FDV above $100M one day after launch	No	$64	74.0¢	Победа
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?	No	$1.2k	56.3¢	Победа
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?	Yes	$3.2k	64.5¢	Поражение
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?	No	$2.1k	60.8¢	Поражение
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?	Yes	$3.3k	67.9¢	Победа
USD.AI FDV above $400M one day after launch?	No	$15	1.3¢	Поражение
Will there be exactly 3 ChatGPT outages in July 2026?	Yes	$52	20.0¢	Поражение
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?	No	$715	33.2¢	Поражение
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$1.2k	74.7¢	Победа
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $190B by December 31?	No	$90	57.0¢	Поражение
Will GPT-6 be released by August 21, 2026?	No	$68	67.3¢	Победа
Will GPT-6 be released by August 21, 2026?	Yes	$32	15.5¢	Поражение
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$2.5k	77.1¢	Победа
USD.AI FDV above $800M one day after launch?	Yes	$11	1.6¢	Победа
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?	No	$528	35.9¢	Поражение
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?	Yes	$3.2k	63.4¢	Победа
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	No	$489	69.9¢	Победа
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?	No	$3.7k	37.4¢	Победа
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?	Yes	$222	36.6¢	Поражение
Will Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q2 revenue (USD) be above $40B?	No	$22	24.0¢	Поражение
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?	Yes	$671	43.6¢	Поражение
GPT-5.6 released by July 6, 2026?	Yes	$37	15.3¢	Поражение
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	Yes	$86	23.7¢	Победа
GPT-5.6 released by July 17, 2026?	No	$21	15.9¢	Поражение
GPT-5.6 released by July 17, 2026?	Yes	$409	76.8¢	Победа
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13?	No	$30	55.0¢	Победа
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13?	Yes	$15	35.0¢	Поражение
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30?	Yes	$45	5.4¢	Поражение
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	No	$3.5k	37.5¢	Поражение
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$8.0k	44.8¢	Победа
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$956	27.0¢	Поражение
USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	$13	1.0¢	Поражение
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?	No	$12	3.1¢	Поражение
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$533	72.3¢	Победа
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?	No	$160	82.8¢	Победа
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?	Yes	$40	19.5¢	Поражение
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	No	$4.6k	46.3¢	Победа
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	Yes	$4.5k	61.2¢	Поражение
GPT-5.6 released by July 13, 2026?	No	$27	4.5¢	Поражение
GPT-5.6 released by July 13, 2026?	Yes	$388	79.7¢	Победа
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	$1.4k	83.6¢	Победа
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$2.1k	25.9¢	Поражение
GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026?	Yes	$33	19.0¢	Поражение
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	Yes	$192	16.1¢	Победа
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $180B by December 31?	No	$0	19.0¢	Поражение
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$26	2.1¢	Поражение
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–0.1%?	Yes	$18	0.4¢	Поражение
GPT-5.6 released by July 9, 2026?	No	$280	9.8¢	Поражение
GPT-5.6 released by July 9, 2026?	Yes	$68	77.6¢	Победа
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	$4.7k	72.3¢	Победа

Tread FDV above $100M one day after launchПобеда
No$64 @ 74.0¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?Победа
No$1.2k @ 56.3¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?Поражение
Yes$3.2k @ 64.5¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Поражение
No$2.1k @ 60.8¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Победа
Yes$3.3k @ 67.9¢
USD.AI FDV above $400M one day after launch?Поражение
No$15 @ 1.3¢
Will there be exactly 3 ChatGPT outages in July 2026?Поражение
Yes$52 @ 20.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?Поражение
No$715 @ 33.2¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?Победа
Yes$1.2k @ 74.7¢
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $190B by December 31?Поражение
No$90 @ 57.0¢
Will GPT-6 be released by August 21, 2026?Победа
No$68 @ 67.3¢
Will GPT-6 be released by August 21, 2026?Поражение
Yes$32 @ 15.5¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Победа
No$2.5k @ 77.1¢
USD.AI FDV above $800M one day after launch?Победа
Yes$11 @ 1.6¢
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?Поражение
No$528 @ 35.9¢
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?Победа
Yes$3.2k @ 63.4¢
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?Победа
No$489 @ 69.9¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?Победа
No$3.7k @ 37.4¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?Поражение
Yes$222 @ 36.6¢
Will Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q2 revenue (USD) be above $40B?Поражение
No$22 @ 24.0¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?Поражение
Yes$671 @ 43.6¢
GPT-5.6 released by July 6, 2026?Поражение
Yes$37 @ 15.3¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Победа
Yes$86 @ 23.7¢
GPT-5.6 released by July 17, 2026?Поражение
No$21 @ 15.9¢
GPT-5.6 released by July 17, 2026?Победа
Yes$409 @ 76.8¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13?Победа
No$30 @ 55.0¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13?Поражение
Yes$15 @ 35.0¢
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30?Поражение
Yes$45 @ 5.4¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Поражение
No$3.5k @ 37.5¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Победа
Yes$8.0k @ 44.8¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?Поражение
Yes$956 @ 27.0¢
USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch?Поражение
No$13 @ 1.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?Поражение
No$12 @ 3.1¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?Победа
Yes$533 @ 72.3¢
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?Победа
No$160 @ 82.8¢
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?Поражение
Yes$40 @ 19.5¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?Победа
No$4.6k @ 46.3¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?Поражение
Yes$4.5k @ 61.2¢
GPT-5.6 released by July 13, 2026?Поражение
No$27 @ 4.5¢
GPT-5.6 released by July 13, 2026?Победа
Yes$388 @ 79.7¢
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Победа
No$1.4k @ 83.6¢
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Поражение
Yes$2.1k @ 25.9¢
GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026?Поражение
Yes$33 @ 19.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Победа
Yes$192 @ 16.1¢
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $180B by December 31?Поражение
No$0 @ 19.0¢
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Поражение
Yes$26 @ 2.1¢
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–0.1%?Поражение
Yes$18 @ 0.4¢
GPT-5.6 released by July 9, 2026?Поражение
No$280 @ 9.8¢
GPT-5.6 released by July 9, 2026?Победа
Yes$68 @ 77.6¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Победа
No$4.7k @ 72.3¢

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Текущие позиции

Рынок	Сфера	Исход	Размер	Вход
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Политика	No	$760	76.0¢
Hyperbeat FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Крипто	No	$310	77.8¢
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	Политика	No	$243	93.6¢
Ink FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Крипто	Yes	$224	57.4¢
Base FDV above $8B one day after launch?	Крипто	No	$217	75.5¢
StandX FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Крипто	No	$200	39.3¢
Base FDV above $4B one day after launch?	Крипто	Yes	$194	45.4¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Политика	No	$171	85.6¢
Will Databricks' valuation hit (LOW) $130B by December 31?	Технологии	No	$160	80.0¢
Arc FDV above $4B one day after launch?	Крипто	No	$155	72.2¢
Will Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $20B by December 31?	Other	No	$140	81.8¢
StandX FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Крипто	Yes	$132	64.2¢
Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?	Крипто	No	$130	91.3¢
Will Glean's valuation hit (HIGH) $8B by December 31?	Other	No	$124	62.0¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?	Технологии	Yes	$121	47.5¢
Printr FDV above $150M one day after launch?	Крипто	No	$120	80.0¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	Технологии	No	$119	56.7¢
Ink FDV above $250M one day after launch?	Крипто	No	$113	43.6¢
Will Lambda's valuation hit (HIGH) $12.5B by December 31?	Технологии	No	$113	77.9¢
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $400B by December 31?	Other	No	$110	90.0¢
Will Predict.fun launch a token by September 30, 2027?	Крипто	Yes	$109	72.6¢
Will Revolut's valuation hit (HIGH) $150B by December 31?	Other	No	$103	82.8¢
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?	Политика	No	$102	34.8¢
Will Tuyo launch a token by September 30, 2027?	Крипто	Yes	$101	46.2¢
StandX FDV above $800M one day after launch?	Крипто	No	$101	76.1¢
Will the Ornn B200 Index hit $5.50 (LOW) by December 31, 2026?	Технологии	Yes	$89	90.0¢
Variational FDV above $3B one day after launch?	Крипто	No	$89	88.9¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Политика	No	$89	59.0¢
Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $50B by December 31?	Технологии	No	$86	42.9¢
Will Tuyo launch a token by December 31, 2027?	Крипто	No	$84	45.0¢

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Политика
No$760 @ 76.0¢
Hyperbeat FDV above $50M one day after launch?Крипто
No$310 @ 77.8¢
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?Политика
No$243 @ 93.6¢
Ink FDV above $100M one day after launch?Крипто
Yes$224 @ 57.4¢
Base FDV above $8B one day after launch?Крипто
No$217 @ 75.5¢
StandX FDV above $200M one day after launch?Крипто
No$200 @ 39.3¢
Base FDV above $4B one day after launch?Крипто
Yes$194 @ 45.4¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?Политика
No$171 @ 85.6¢
Will Databricks' valuation hit (LOW) $130B by December 31?Технологии
No$160 @ 80.0¢
Arc FDV above $4B one day after launch?Крипто
No$155 @ 72.2¢
Will Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $20B by December 31?Other
No$140 @ 81.8¢
StandX FDV above $100M one day after launch?Крипто
Yes$132 @ 64.2¢
Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?Крипто
No$130 @ 91.3¢
Will Glean's valuation hit (HIGH) $8B by December 31?Other
No$124 @ 62.0¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?Технологии
Yes$121 @ 47.5¢
Printr FDV above $150M one day after launch?Крипто
No$120 @ 80.0¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?Технологии
No$119 @ 56.7¢
Ink FDV above $250M one day after launch?Крипто
No$113 @ 43.6¢
Will Lambda's valuation hit (HIGH) $12.5B by December 31?Технологии
No$113 @ 77.9¢
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $400B by December 31?Other
No$110 @ 90.0¢
Will Predict.fun launch a token by September 30, 2027?Крипто
Yes$109 @ 72.6¢
Will Revolut's valuation hit (HIGH) $150B by December 31?Other
No$103 @ 82.8¢
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?Политика
No$102 @ 34.8¢
Will Tuyo launch a token by September 30, 2027?Крипто
Yes$101 @ 46.2¢
StandX FDV above $800M one day after launch?Крипто
No$101 @ 76.1¢
Will the Ornn B200 Index hit $5.50 (LOW) by December 31, 2026?Технологии
Yes$89 @ 90.0¢
Variational FDV above $3B one day after launch?Крипто
No$89 @ 88.9¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?Политика
No$89 @ 59.0¢
Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $50B by December 31?Технологии
No$86 @ 42.9¢
Will Tuyo launch a token by December 31, 2027?Крипто
No$84 @ 45.0¢