0xc798…8aab

Профи

Эдж

+3.4pp

ROI

+6%

Доля побед

47% @ 43.3¢

Brier

0.182

Сделок

2320

Ср. размер

Динамика ROI

Специализация по сферам

Сфера	Попадания	ROI	Ставки
Политика	42% (64/154)	-0%	154
Other	46% (38/83)	+56%	83
Спорт	35% (13/37)	-28%	37
Геополитика	30% (11/37)	-45%	37
Технологии	70% (7/10)	+12%	10
Крипто	50% (3/6)	+26%	6
Бизнес	50% (1/2)	+0%	2

Политика154 ставки
Попадания
42% (64/154)
ROI
-0%
Other83 ставки
Попадания
46% (38/83)
ROI
+56%
Спорт37 ставки
Попадания
35% (13/37)
ROI
-28%
Геополитика37 ставки
Попадания
30% (11/37)
ROI
-45%
Технологии10 ставки
Попадания
70% (7/10)
ROI
+12%
Крипто6 ставки
Попадания
50% (3/6)
ROI
+26%
Бизнес2 ставки
Попадания
50% (1/2)
ROI
+0%

История результатов

42% попаданий · 137/329

Рынок	Исход	Размер	Вход	Итог
Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$46	84.0¢	Победа
Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1520 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$6	11.0¢	Поражение
Will Kai and Speed finish their Minecraft marathon by August 31?	No	$0	2.0¢	Поражение
Fight to Go the Distance?	No	$4	70.0¢	Поражение
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$40	76.7¢	Поражение
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?	Yes	$29	14.8¢	Поражение
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	No	$2	34.0¢	Поражение
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Yes	$1	4.1¢	Поражение
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?	No	$35	50.4¢	Поражение
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?	Yes	$10	63.0¢	Победа
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$50	50.0¢	Победа
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	$49	81.6¢	Победа
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	Yes	$1	10.0¢	Поражение
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	No	$14	69.0¢	Поражение
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$6	33.4¢	Победа
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5	Over	$3	47.0¢	Поражение
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?	No	$10	31.0¢	Поражение
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	Yes	$20	3.8¢	Поражение
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$10	12.5¢	Поражение
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$17	83.0¢	Победа
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	No	$43	69.3¢	Победа
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	Yes	$59	31.3¢	Поражение
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$35	65.6¢	Победа
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	No	$3	32.1¢	Победа
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	$7	2.0¢	Поражение
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?	No	$10	9.2¢	Поражение
Iran closes its airspace by May 7?	Yes	$4	2.9¢	Поражение
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 11, 2026?	No	$79	78.8¢	Победа
Will Centre Party (C) win between 5% and 7% of all valid votes?	Yes	$7	35.0¢	Поражение
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?	Yes	$25	23.0¢	Поражение
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?	No	$20	20.8¢	Поражение
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?	Yes	$20	80.5¢	Победа
Will Trump and Xi hug at their summit?	Yes	$3	10.2¢	Поражение
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?	Yes	$17	55.8¢	Поражение
Will Trump Leave China on May 15?	Yes	$8	86.6¢	Победа
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	No	$77	28.7¢	Поражение
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	Yes	$93	47.8¢	Победа
Knicks vs. Spurs	Knicks	$5	33.0¢	Победа
Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?	No	$5	83.0¢	Победа
Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?	Yes	$5	4.0¢	Поражение
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$40	35.8¢	Поражение
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$60	18.0¢	Поражение
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	No	$110	85.1¢	Победа
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May?	No	$1	27.0¢	Победа
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	$101	78.6¢	Победа
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$131	14.7¢	Поражение
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Yes	$8	62.0¢	Победа
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?	Yes	$2	4.2¢	Поражение
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	$10	87.5¢	Победа
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	$85	10.2¢	Поражение

Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?Победа
Yes$46 @ 84.0¢
Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1520 by December 31, 2026?Поражение
Yes$6 @ 11.0¢
Will Kai and Speed finish their Minecraft marathon by August 31?Поражение
No$0 @ 2.0¢
Fight to Go the Distance?Поражение
No$4 @ 70.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?Поражение
Yes$40 @ 76.7¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?Поражение
Yes$29 @ 14.8¢
Will France win on 2026-06-16?Поражение
No$2 @ 34.0¢
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Поражение
Yes$1 @ 4.1¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Поражение
No$35 @ 50.4¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Победа
Yes$10 @ 63.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?Победа
Yes$50 @ 50.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?Победа
No$49 @ 81.6¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?Поражение
Yes$1 @ 10.0¢
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?Поражение
No$14 @ 69.0¢
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?Победа
Yes$6 @ 33.4¢
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5Поражение
Over$3 @ 47.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?Поражение
No$10 @ 31.0¢
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?Поражение
Yes$20 @ 3.8¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Поражение
Yes$10 @ 12.5¢
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?Победа
Yes$17 @ 83.0¢
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?Победа
No$43 @ 69.3¢
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?Поражение
Yes$59 @ 31.3¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Победа
No$35 @ 65.6¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?Победа
No$3 @ 32.1¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?Поражение
Yes$7 @ 2.0¢
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?Поражение
No$10 @ 9.2¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 7?Поражение
Yes$4 @ 2.9¢
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 11, 2026?Победа
No$79 @ 78.8¢
Will Centre Party (C) win between 5% and 7% of all valid votes?Поражение
Yes$7 @ 35.0¢
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?Поражение
Yes$25 @ 23.0¢
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?Поражение
No$20 @ 20.8¢
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?Победа
Yes$20 @ 80.5¢
Will Trump and Xi hug at their summit?Поражение
Yes$3 @ 10.2¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?Поражение
Yes$17 @ 55.8¢
Will Trump Leave China on May 15?Победа
Yes$8 @ 86.6¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Поражение
No$77 @ 28.7¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Победа
Yes$93 @ 47.8¢
Knicks vs. SpursПобеда
Knicks$5 @ 33.0¢
Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?Победа
No$5 @ 83.0¢
Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?Поражение
Yes$5 @ 4.0¢
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?Поражение
Yes$40 @ 35.8¢
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Поражение
Yes$60 @ 18.0¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Победа
No$110 @ 85.1¢
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May?Победа
No$1 @ 27.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Победа
No$101 @ 78.6¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Поражение
Yes$131 @ 14.7¢
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?Победа
Yes$8 @ 62.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?Поражение
Yes$2 @ 4.2¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Победа
No$10 @ 87.5¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Поражение
Yes$85 @ 10.2¢

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Текущие позиции

Рынок	Сфера	Исход	Размер	Вход
Will the ECB announce no change at the December 2026 meeting?	Экономика	No	$21	70.0¢
Will the Centre Party (C) be in the next Swedish government?	Политика	No	$20	52.0¢

Will the ECB announce no change at the December 2026 meeting?Экономика
No$21 @ 70.0¢
Will the Centre Party (C) be in the next Swedish government?Политика
No$20 @ 52.0¢