0xc320…7637

Прибыльный

Эдж

+10.9pp

ROI

+14%

Доля побед

56% @ 45.2¢

Brier

0.247

Сделок

1093

Ср. размер

$38

Динамика ROI

Специализация по сферам

Сфера	Попадания	ROI	Ставки
Other	43% (72/166)	+5%	166
Политика	40% (4/10)	-23%	10
Технологии	67% (2/3)	+11%	3
Геополитика	33% (1/3)	-85%	3
Экономика	33% (1/3)	+136%	3
Спорт	0% (0/2)	-100%	2
Крипто	50% (1/2)	+161%	2

Other166 ставки
Попадания
43% (72/166)
ROI
+5%
Политика10 ставки
Попадания
40% (4/10)
ROI
-23%
Технологии3 ставки
Попадания
67% (2/3)
ROI
+11%
Геополитика3 ставки
Попадания
33% (1/3)
ROI
-85%
Экономика3 ставки
Попадания
33% (1/3)
ROI
+136%
Спорт2 ставки
Попадания
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%
Крипто2 ставки
Попадания
50% (1/2)
ROI
+161%

История результатов

43% попаданий · 81/189

Рынок	Исход	Размер	Вход	Итог
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in October?	Yes	$112	28.0¢	Поражение
Will Powell say "Good Morning" during Jackson Hole speech on August 22?	No	$45	22.0¢	Победа
Will Powell say "Good Morning" during Jackson Hole speech on August 22?	Yes	$208	78.0¢	Поражение
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?	No	$518	74.2¢	Победа
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?	Yes	$1.6k	32.3¢	Поражение
US government shutdown by October 1?	No	$44	22.0¢	Поражение
S&P 500 all time high by December 31?	Yes	$646	50.8¢	Победа
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by January 31?	Yes	$20	20.0¢	Поражение
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in February?	No	$324	54.0¢	Поражение
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in February?	Yes	$297	79.0¢	Победа
Will Trump meet with Putin by August 15?	Yes	$1.3k	69.9¢	Победа
Will Trump talk to Emmanuel Macron in January?	Yes	$140	70.0¢	Победа
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of January?	Yes	$275	55.1¢	Поражение
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by September 30?	No	$90	30.0¢	Победа
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by September 30?	Yes	$3	68.0¢	Поражение
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March?	No	$122	12.2¢	Поражение
U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by September 30?	Yes	$6	10.4¢	Поражение
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $65 on the final trading day of June 2026?	No	$65	12.9¢	Поражение
Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?	No	$264	88.0¢	Победа
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?	No	$430	86.0¢	Победа
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?	Yes	$52	13.0¢	Поражение
Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be between 12 and 15 on April 19, 2026?	Yes	$10	10.0¢	Победа
Will Gold close below $4000 at the end of 2025?	Yes	$60	30.0¢	Поражение
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine?	Yes	$186	28.1¢	Поражение
Will courts block Trump's 100k H1b by September 30?	No	$116	77.0¢	Победа
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?	No	$142	56.0¢	Победа
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?	Yes	$142	34.5¢	Поражение
S&P 500 breaks its losing streak this week?	No	$30	6.0¢	Поражение
S&P 500 breaks its losing streak this week?	Yes	$11	47.0¢	Победа
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?	Yes	$75	25.0¢	Поражение
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine in 2025?	Yes	$113	20.9¢	Поражение
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in August?	Yes	$202	52.5¢	Победа
Will Trump talk to Pope Leo XIV in January?	Yes	$0	3.0¢	Поражение
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $90 on the final trading day of June 2026?	No	$159	34.8¢	Победа
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	No	$206	69.7¢	Поражение
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	Yes	$11	50.0¢	Победа
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in December?	Yes	$126	35.8¢	Победа
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	No	$141	73.4¢	Победа
No listed company closes Warner Bros acquisition by June 30, 2027	Yes	$26	13.0¢	Поражение
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	$68	76.0¢	Победа
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	$270	45.0¢	Поражение
Will annual inflation increase by 2.8% in July?	Yes	$40	56.0¢	Поражение
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?	No	$726	72.6¢	Победа
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?	Yes	$165	15.0¢	Поражение
Will Trump and Putin meet next in another country?	Yes	$9	6.0¢	Поражение
Will Palantir dip to $162 in January?	Yes	$12	66.0¢	Победа
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $6,960 on the final trading day of January 2026?	Yes	$3	35.0¢	Поражение
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?	Yes	$20	15.0¢	Поражение
US government shutdown Saturday?	No	$256	64.0¢	Поражение
US government shutdown Saturday?	Yes	$172	86.0¢	Победа

Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in October?Поражение
Yes$112 @ 28.0¢
Will Powell say "Good Morning" during Jackson Hole speech on August 22?Победа
No$45 @ 22.0¢
Will Powell say "Good Morning" during Jackson Hole speech on August 22?Поражение
Yes$208 @ 78.0¢
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?Победа
No$518 @ 74.2¢
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?Поражение
Yes$1.6k @ 32.3¢
US government shutdown by October 1?Поражение
No$44 @ 22.0¢
S&P 500 all time high by December 31?Победа
Yes$646 @ 50.8¢
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by January 31?Поражение
Yes$20 @ 20.0¢
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in February?Поражение
No$324 @ 54.0¢
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in February?Победа
Yes$297 @ 79.0¢
Will Trump meet with Putin by August 15?Победа
Yes$1.3k @ 69.9¢
Will Trump talk to Emmanuel Macron in January?Победа
Yes$140 @ 70.0¢
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of January?Поражение
Yes$275 @ 55.1¢
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by September 30?Победа
No$90 @ 30.0¢
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by September 30?Поражение
Yes$3 @ 68.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March?Поражение
No$122 @ 12.2¢
U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by September 30?Поражение
Yes$6 @ 10.4¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $65 on the final trading day of June 2026?Поражение
No$65 @ 12.9¢
Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?Победа
No$264 @ 88.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?Победа
No$430 @ 86.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?Поражение
Yes$52 @ 13.0¢
Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be between 12 and 15 on April 19, 2026?Победа
Yes$10 @ 10.0¢
Will Gold close below $4000 at the end of 2025?Поражение
Yes$60 @ 30.0¢
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine?Поражение
Yes$186 @ 28.1¢
Will courts block Trump's 100k H1b by September 30?Победа
No$116 @ 77.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?Победа
No$142 @ 56.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?Поражение
Yes$142 @ 34.5¢
S&P 500 breaks its losing streak this week?Поражение
No$30 @ 6.0¢
S&P 500 breaks its losing streak this week?Победа
Yes$11 @ 47.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?Поражение
Yes$75 @ 25.0¢
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine in 2025?Поражение
Yes$113 @ 20.9¢
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in August?Победа
Yes$202 @ 52.5¢
Will Trump talk to Pope Leo XIV in January?Поражение
Yes$0 @ 3.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $90 on the final trading day of June 2026?Победа
No$159 @ 34.8¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?Поражение
No$206 @ 69.7¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?Победа
Yes$11 @ 50.0¢
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in December?Победа
Yes$126 @ 35.8¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Победа
No$141 @ 73.4¢
No listed company closes Warner Bros acquisition by June 30, 2027Поражение
Yes$26 @ 13.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Победа
No$68 @ 76.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Поражение
Yes$270 @ 45.0¢
Will annual inflation increase by 2.8% in July?Поражение
Yes$40 @ 56.0¢
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?Победа
No$726 @ 72.6¢
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?Поражение
Yes$165 @ 15.0¢
Will Trump and Putin meet next in another country?Поражение
Yes$9 @ 6.0¢
Will Palantir dip to $162 in January?Победа
Yes$12 @ 66.0¢
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $6,960 on the final trading day of January 2026?Поражение
Yes$3 @ 35.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?Поражение
Yes$20 @ 15.0¢
US government shutdown Saturday?Поражение
No$256 @ 64.0¢
US government shutdown Saturday?Победа
Yes$172 @ 86.0¢

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Текущие позиции

Рынок	Сфера	Исход	Размер	Вход
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.4% before 2027?	Экономика	Yes	$671	50.6¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026?	Крипто	No	$459	44.5¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?	Экономика	Yes	$303	29.8¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% before 2027?	Экономика	Yes	$234	20.5¢
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	Экономика	No	$129	69.3¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.3% before 2027?	Экономика	Yes	$78	39.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in November?	Other	Yes	$33	33.0¢

Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.4% before 2027?Экономика
Yes$671 @ 50.6¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026?Крипто
No$459 @ 44.5¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?Экономика
Yes$303 @ 29.8¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% before 2027?Экономика
Yes$234 @ 20.5¢
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?Экономика
No$129 @ 69.3¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.3% before 2027?Экономика
Yes$78 @ 39.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in November?Other
Yes$33 @ 33.0¢