0xb4b2…23fd

Профи

Эдж

-8.5pp

ROI

+46%

Доля побед

19% @ 27.8¢

Brier

0.128

Сделок

202

Ср. размер

$19

Динамика ROI

Специализация по сферам

Сфера	Попадания	ROI	Ставки
Other	24% (11/46)	+105%	46
Политика	17% (1/6)	-49%	6
Технологии	100% (1/1)	+22%	1
Геополитика	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other46 ставки
Попадания
24% (11/46)
ROI
+105%
Политика6 ставки
Попадания
17% (1/6)
ROI
-49%
Технологии1 ставки
Попадания
100% (1/1)
ROI
+22%
Геополитика1 ставки
Попадания
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

История результатов

24% попаданий · 13/54

Рынок	Исход	Размер	Вход	Итог
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány?	Yes	$10	4.8¢	Поражение
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár?	Yes	$7	0.1¢	Поражение
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?	Yes	$2	10.4¢	Поражение
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	No	$21	3.0¢	Поражение
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Yes	$527	22.9¢	Поражение
Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	$31	1.3¢	Поражение
Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	$35	39.4¢	Победа
Will the government shutdown last 6 days or more?	Yes	$39	29.0¢	Поражение
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30?	No	$6	1.0¢	Поражение
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 21 2025?	Yes	$8	1.9¢	Поражение
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15?	Yes	$126	86.1¢	Победа
Trump renames AI by September 30?	No	$202	44.9¢	Поражение
Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more?	Yes	$12	12.4¢	Поражение
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	No	$932	67.0¢	Победа
Will Trump and Mamdani shake hands for between 2 and 6 seconds on November 21 2025?	Yes	$1	7.9¢	Поражение
Will Sora by OpenAI be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 31?	Yes	$1	58.0¢	Поражение
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by July 31?	No	$90	20.6¢	Поражение
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by July 31?	Yes	$600	81.7¢	Победа
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	$5	0.5¢	Поражение
Will Balendra “Balen” Shah be the next Prime Minister of Nepal?	Yes	$20	90.0¢	Победа
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025?	No	$148	13.0¢	Поражение
Netanyahu out by March 31?	Yes	$6	2.7¢	Поражение
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C or below on August 17?	Yes	$1	5.0¢	Поражение
Current shutdown longest in U.S. history?	No	$3	6.0¢	Поражение
Will Hades II win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards?	Yes	$3	6.0¢	Поражение
Will Sanae Takaichi be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	$17	0.8¢	Поражение
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the 2026 State of the Union address?	Yes	$26	29.0¢	Поражение
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 20 2025?	Yes	$58	8.1¢	Поражение
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later?	Yes	$31	8.8¢	Поражение
Will the government shutdown end November 14?	Yes	$8	3.5¢	Поражение
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on July 3?	No	$8	88.0¢	Победа
Michigan vs. Northwestern	Michigan	$9	45.0¢	Победа
Michigan vs. Northwestern	Northwestern	$9	45.0¢	Поражение
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 26 2025?	Yes	$5	1.0¢	Поражение
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest?	Yes	$1	27.4¢	Поражение
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 22?	No	$6	6.5¢	Поражение
Will Trump create a tariff dividend in 2025?	No	$139	89.0¢	Победа
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025?	No	$128	8.1¢	Поражение
Will the government shutdown last 14 days or more?	Yes	$6	5.6¢	Поражение
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more?	Yes	$175	2.7¢	Поражение
Will the government shutdown end November 13?	Yes	$139	4.7¢	Победа
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?	Yes	$10	1.1¢	Поражение
Will the government shutdown last 10 days or more?	Yes	$10	9.5¢	Поражение
Will Hollow Knight: Silksong win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards?	Yes	$3	9.0¢	Поражение
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11?	No	$1	82.0¢	Победа
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11?	Yes	$31	16.8¢	Поражение
Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$41	82.0¢	Победа
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 19 2025?	Yes	$26	7.0¢	Поражение
Will Catalin Drula be the next Mayor of Bucharest?	Yes	$1	25.0¢	Поражение
Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau confirmed relationship by October 31?	No	$1	80.0¢	Победа

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány?Поражение
Yes$10 @ 4.8¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár?Поражение
Yes$7 @ 0.1¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?Поражение
Yes$2 @ 10.4¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Поражение
No$21 @ 3.0¢
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?Поражение
Yes$527 @ 22.9¢
Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?Поражение
Yes$31 @ 1.3¢
Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?Победа
Yes$35 @ 39.4¢
Will the government shutdown last 6 days or more?Поражение
Yes$39 @ 29.0¢
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30?Поражение
No$6 @ 1.0¢
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 21 2025?Поражение
Yes$8 @ 1.9¢
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15?Победа
Yes$126 @ 86.1¢
Trump renames AI by September 30?Поражение
No$202 @ 44.9¢
Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more?Поражение
Yes$12 @ 12.4¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?Победа
No$932 @ 67.0¢
Will Trump and Mamdani shake hands for between 2 and 6 seconds on November 21 2025?Поражение
Yes$1 @ 7.9¢
Will Sora by OpenAI be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 31?Поражение
Yes$1 @ 58.0¢
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by July 31?Поражение
No$90 @ 20.6¢
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by July 31?Победа
Yes$600 @ 81.7¢
US forces enter Iran by April 30?Поражение
No$5 @ 0.5¢
Will Balendra “Balen” Shah be the next Prime Minister of Nepal?Победа
Yes$20 @ 90.0¢
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025?Поражение
No$148 @ 13.0¢
Netanyahu out by March 31?Поражение
Yes$6 @ 2.7¢
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C or below on August 17?Поражение
Yes$1 @ 5.0¢
Current shutdown longest in U.S. history?Поражение
No$3 @ 6.0¢
Will Hades II win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards?Поражение
Yes$3 @ 6.0¢
Will Sanae Takaichi be the next leader out before 2027?Поражение
Yes$17 @ 0.8¢
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the 2026 State of the Union address?Поражение
Yes$26 @ 29.0¢
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 20 2025?Поражение
Yes$58 @ 8.1¢
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later?Поражение
Yes$31 @ 8.8¢
Will the government shutdown end November 14?Поражение
Yes$8 @ 3.5¢
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on July 3?Победа
No$8 @ 88.0¢
Michigan vs. NorthwesternПобеда
Michigan$9 @ 45.0¢
Michigan vs. NorthwesternПоражение
Northwestern$9 @ 45.0¢
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 26 2025?Поражение
Yes$5 @ 1.0¢
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest?Поражение
Yes$1 @ 27.4¢
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 22?Поражение
No$6 @ 6.5¢
Will Trump create a tariff dividend in 2025?Победа
No$139 @ 89.0¢
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025?Поражение
No$128 @ 8.1¢
Will the government shutdown last 14 days or more?Поражение
Yes$6 @ 5.6¢
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more?Поражение
Yes$175 @ 2.7¢
Will the government shutdown end November 13?Победа
Yes$139 @ 4.7¢
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?Поражение
Yes$10 @ 1.1¢
Will the government shutdown last 10 days or more?Поражение
Yes$10 @ 9.5¢
Will Hollow Knight: Silksong win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards?Поражение
Yes$3 @ 9.0¢
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11?Победа
No$1 @ 82.0¢
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11?Поражение
Yes$31 @ 16.8¢
Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?Победа
Yes$41 @ 82.0¢
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 19 2025?Поражение
Yes$26 @ 7.0¢
Will Catalin Drula be the next Mayor of Bucharest?Поражение
Yes$1 @ 25.0¢
Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau confirmed relationship by October 31?Победа
No$1 @ 80.0¢

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Текущие позиции

Рынок	Сфера	Исход	Размер	Вход
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Политика	Yes	$67	67.0¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Политика	Yes	$45	90.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	Политика	Yes	$35	70.0¢

Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Политика
Yes$67 @ 67.0¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Политика
Yes$45 @ 90.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?Политика
Yes$35 @ 70.0¢