0xaabd…0992

Прибыльный

Эдж

+29.1pp

ROI

+124%

Доля побед

62% @ 32.7¢

Brier

0.261

Сделок

Ср. размер

$74

Специализация по сферам

Сфера	Попадания	ROI	Ставки
Политика	63% (5/8)	+195%	8
Other	38% (3/8)	+57%	8
Спорт	50% (1/2)	-10%	2
Технологии	100% (1/1)	+22%	1

Политика8 ставки
Попадания
63% (5/8)
ROI
+195%
Other8 ставки
Попадания
38% (3/8)
ROI
+57%
Спорт2 ставки
Попадания
50% (1/2)
ROI
-10%
Технологии1 ставки
Попадания
100% (1/1)
ROI
+22%

История результатов

53% попаданий · 10/19

Рынок	Исход	Размер	Вход	Итог
Will Warsh say "Good day" during July Press Conference?	Yes	$5	66.0¢	Победа
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw?	Yes	$9	8.0¢	Поражение
Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?	No	$200	20.0¢	Поражение
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?	No	$158	79.0¢	Победа
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?	Yes	$400	18.4¢	Поражение
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 7, 2026?	Yes	$73	73.0¢	Поражение
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15?	Yes	$3	5.7¢	Поражение
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	$13	66.0¢	Победа
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	No	$245	81.7¢	Победа
Will Adrian Boafo be the Democratic nominee for MD-05?	No	$220	22.0¢	Поражение
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$487	69.6¢	Победа
Will CXMT’s closing IPO market cap be at least 2T yuan?	No	$208	16.0¢	Поражение
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	$200	42.1¢	Победа
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	$360	30.0¢	Поражение
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	No	$50	85.0¢	Победа
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Yes	$1.0k	17.4¢	Победа
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Runoff by at least 15%?	No	$198	7.6¢	Поражение
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	$300	86.0¢	Победа
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$875	27.5¢	Победа

Will Warsh say "Good day" during July Press Conference?Победа
Yes$5 @ 66.0¢
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw?Поражение
Yes$9 @ 8.0¢
Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?Поражение
No$200 @ 20.0¢
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?Победа
No$158 @ 79.0¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?Поражение
Yes$400 @ 18.4¢
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 7, 2026?Поражение
Yes$73 @ 73.0¢
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15?Поражение
Yes$3 @ 5.7¢
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?Победа
Yes$13 @ 66.0¢
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?Победа
No$245 @ 81.7¢
Will Adrian Boafo be the Democratic nominee for MD-05?Поражение
No$220 @ 22.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?Победа
Yes$487 @ 69.6¢
Will CXMT’s closing IPO market cap be at least 2T yuan?Поражение
No$208 @ 16.0¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Победа
Yes$200 @ 42.1¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Поражение
Yes$360 @ 30.0¢
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?Победа
No$50 @ 85.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Победа
Yes$1.0k @ 17.4¢
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Runoff by at least 15%?Поражение
No$198 @ 7.6¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?Победа
No$300 @ 86.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?Победа
Yes$875 @ 27.5¢

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Текущие позиции

Рынок	Сфера	Исход	Размер	Вход
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Геополитика	No	$1.2k	95.1¢
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?	Крипто	No	$415	83.0¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?	Политика	No	$348	87.0¢
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Геополитика	No	$312	93.8¢
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Политика	No	$300	84.0¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Политика	Yes	$300	84.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?	Крипто	No	$300	78.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?	Крипто	No	$250	89.0¢

Xi Jinping out before 2027?Геополитика
No$1.2k @ 95.1¢
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?Крипто
No$415 @ 83.0¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?Политика
No$348 @ 87.0¢
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?Геополитика
No$312 @ 93.8¢
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Политика
No$300 @ 84.0¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Политика
Yes$300 @ 84.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?Крипто
No$300 @ 78.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?Крипто
No$250 @ 89.0¢