0x9517…f0b3

Прибыльный

Эдж

+28.6pp

ROI

+124%

Доля побед

75% @ 46.2¢

Brier

0.346

Сделок

234

Ср. размер

$100

Специализация по сферам

Сфера	Попадания	ROI	Ставки
Политика	55% (22/40)	-23%	40
Other	80% (24/30)	+174%	30
Спорт	78% (7/9)	+0%	9
Геополитика	75% (6/8)	+10%	8
Технологии	0% (0/2)	-100%	2
Экономика	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Культура	100% (1/1)	+33%	1

Политика40 ставки
Попадания
55% (22/40)
ROI
-23%
Other30 ставки
Попадания
80% (24/30)
ROI
+174%
Спорт9 ставки
Попадания
78% (7/9)
ROI
+0%
Геополитика8 ставки
Попадания
75% (6/8)
ROI
+10%
Технологии2 ставки
Попадания
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%
Экономика1 ставки
Попадания
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Культура1 ставки
Попадания
100% (1/1)
ROI
+33%

История результатов

66% попаданий · 60/91

Рынок	Исход	Размер	Вход	Итог
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	No	$199	89.5¢	Победа
Will Dan Green be the Republican nominee for FL-09?	Yes	$13	89.3¢	Победа
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	$32	89.8¢	Победа
Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?	Yes	$44	87.0¢	Победа
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	No	$167	64.0¢	Победа
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$66	81.4¢	Победа
Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?	Yes	$20	60.4¢	Победа
Will "Minions & Monsters" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 68m?	No	$1.9k	62.0¢	Поражение
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$38	63.0¢	Победа
Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?	No	$269	46.0¢	Поражение
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?	No	$25	75.0¢	Победа
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	$151	85.9¢	Победа
Will Linke win the third-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	Yes	$150	88.0¢	Победа
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	Yes	$304	70.7¢	Победа
Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?	Yes	$302	85.0¢	Победа
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	No	$36	70.9¢	Поражение
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?	Yes	$19	19.9¢	Поражение
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% or more in August?	No	$151	88.0¢	Победа
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?	No	$69	87.2¢	Победа
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?	No	$150	83.5¢	Победа
Another NATO Article 4 invocation by August 31, 2026?	No	$72	88.4¢	Победа
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?	No	$111	88.0¢	Победа
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	Yes	$25	18.0¢	Поражение
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	No	$18	73.0¢	Поражение
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	Yes	$41	37.1¢	Победа
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in August?	No	$304	81.0¢	Победа
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	$50	77.3¢	Победа
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?	No	$26	83.0¢	Победа
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?	Yes	$96	55.7¢	Поражение
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	$151	86.7¢	Победа
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?	No	$58	81.2¢	Победа
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	No	$150	86.0¢	Победа
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	$151	88.0¢	Победа
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?	No	$181	78.2¢	Победа
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	No	$25	62.5¢	Поражение
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	No	$25	53.0¢	Поражение
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	$26	36.5¢	Поражение
Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	No	$50	75.7¢	Победа
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?	Yes	$44	3.1¢	Поражение
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 350m?	Yes	$151	87.7¢	Победа
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	$54	71.0¢	Поражение
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	$29	61.0¢	Победа
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?	Yes	$19	37.0¢	Победа
United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advance	Belgium	$124	69.8¢	Победа
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	$300	88.9¢	Победа
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	$171	50.0¢	Поражение
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$26	52.0¢	Победа
US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?	No	$95	88.1¢	Победа
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	No	$535	12.3¢	Поражение
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$16	64.4¢	Победа

Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?Победа
No$199 @ 89.5¢
Will Dan Green be the Republican nominee for FL-09?Победа
Yes$13 @ 89.3¢
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Победа
No$32 @ 89.8¢
Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?Победа
Yes$44 @ 87.0¢
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?Победа
No$167 @ 64.0¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Победа
No$66 @ 81.4¢
Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?Победа
Yes$20 @ 60.4¢
Will "Minions & Monsters" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 68m?Поражение
No$1.9k @ 62.0¢
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?Победа
Yes$38 @ 63.0¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?Поражение
No$269 @ 46.0¢
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?Победа
No$25 @ 75.0¢
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?Победа
Yes$151 @ 85.9¢
Will Linke win the third-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?Победа
Yes$150 @ 88.0¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Победа
Yes$304 @ 70.7¢
Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?Победа
Yes$302 @ 85.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Поражение
No$36 @ 70.9¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?Поражение
Yes$19 @ 19.9¢
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% or more in August?Победа
No$151 @ 88.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?Победа
No$69 @ 87.2¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?Победа
No$150 @ 83.5¢
Another NATO Article 4 invocation by August 31, 2026?Победа
No$72 @ 88.4¢
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?Победа
No$111 @ 88.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?Поражение
Yes$25 @ 18.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?Поражение
No$18 @ 73.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?Победа
Yes$41 @ 37.1¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in August?Победа
No$304 @ 81.0¢
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Победа
Yes$50 @ 77.3¢
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Победа
No$26 @ 83.0¢
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Поражение
Yes$96 @ 55.7¢
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?Победа
No$151 @ 86.7¢
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?Победа
No$58 @ 81.2¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Победа
No$150 @ 86.0¢
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?Победа
Yes$151 @ 88.0¢
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?Победа
No$181 @ 78.2¢
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?Поражение
No$25 @ 62.5¢
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?Поражение
No$25 @ 53.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?Поражение
No$26 @ 36.5¢
Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Победа
No$50 @ 75.7¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?Поражение
Yes$44 @ 3.1¢
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 350m?Победа
Yes$151 @ 87.7¢
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?Поражение
No$54 @ 71.0¢
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?Победа
Yes$29 @ 61.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?Победа
Yes$19 @ 37.0¢
United States vs. Belgium: Team to AdvanceПобеда
Belgium$124 @ 69.8¢
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Победа
No$300 @ 88.9¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Поражение
No$171 @ 50.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Победа
Yes$26 @ 52.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?Победа
No$95 @ 88.1¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Поражение
No$535 @ 12.3¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Победа
Yes$16 @ 64.4¢

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Текущие позиции

Рынок	Сфера	Исход	Размер	Вход
Will Meituan have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Технологии	No	$271	96.0¢
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Политика	No	$250	46.5¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	Политика	No	$250	83.0¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Политика	No	$241	84.0¢
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Политика	No	$150	89.0¢
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?	Политика	No	$150	91.3¢
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by September 30, 2026?	Технологии	Yes	$150	86.4¢
Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?	Технологии	No	$150	93.0¢
Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Paraíba?	Политика	Yes	$79	89.1¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Политика	No	$78	78.7¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Политика	No	$63	55.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Политика	No	$62	70.2¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Технологии	Yes	$62	78.0¢
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?	Политика	No	$62	91.0¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win 39% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Политика	Yes	$48	86.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Политика	No	$46	90.0¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Политика	Yes	$35	88.0¢
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Политика	Yes	$23	78.5¢
Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?	Политика	No	$14	94.0¢
No one announced as next James Bond?	Культура	No	$12	74.7¢

Will Meituan have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?Технологии
No$271 @ 96.0¢
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?Политика
No$250 @ 46.5¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?Политика
No$250 @ 83.0¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?Политика
No$241 @ 84.0¢
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Политика
No$150 @ 89.0¢
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?Политика
No$150 @ 91.3¢
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by September 30, 2026?Технологии
Yes$150 @ 86.4¢
Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?Технологии
No$150 @ 93.0¢
Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Paraíba?Политика
Yes$79 @ 89.1¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Политика
No$78 @ 78.7¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Политика
No$63 @ 55.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?Политика
No$62 @ 70.2¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Технологии
Yes$62 @ 78.0¢
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?Политика
No$62 @ 91.0¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win 39% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Политика
Yes$48 @ 86.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Политика
No$46 @ 90.0¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Политика
Yes$35 @ 88.0¢
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Политика
Yes$23 @ 78.5¢
Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?Политика
No$14 @ 94.0¢
No one announced as next James Bond?Культура
No$12 @ 74.7¢