0x8a7b…782f

Профи

Эдж

+2.2pp

ROI

+47%

Доля побед

6% @ 4.0¢

Brier

0.017

Сделок

727

Ср. размер

Динамика ROI

Специализация по сферам

Сфера	Попадания	ROI	Ставки
Политика	18% (5/28)	+65%	28
Other	11% (2/18)	-5%	18
Экономика	15% (2/13)	+15%	13
Технологии	0% (0/11)	-100%	11
Геополитика	22% (2/9)	-12%	9
Крипто	50% (1/2)	+22%	2

Политика28 ставки
Попадания
18% (5/28)
ROI
+65%
Other18 ставки
Попадания
11% (2/18)
ROI
-5%
Экономика13 ставки
Попадания
15% (2/13)
ROI
+15%
Технологии11 ставки
Попадания
0% (0/11)
ROI
-100%
Геополитика9 ставки
Попадания
22% (2/9)
ROI
-12%
Крипто2 ставки
Попадания
50% (1/2)
ROI
+22%

История результатов

15% попаданий · 12/81

Рынок	Исход	Размер	Вход	Итог
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	$0	0.2¢	Поражение
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	No	$432	83.4¢	Победа
Bank of England decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2026 meeting?	Yes	$7	0.1¢	Поражение
Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 50+ bps at the July interest rate announcement?	Yes	$1	0.1¢	Поражение
Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	$3	0.2¢	Поражение
Will DeepSeek have the second-best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	$2	0.1¢	Поражение
Will Cerebras' market cap be between $30B and $40B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	$2	0.4¢	Поражение
Will the Bank of Canada announce an increase at the June meeting?	Yes	$7	0.2¢	Поражение
Will Moonshot have the second-best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	$1	0.1¢	Поражение
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia make no change to the target for the cash rate after the May Meeting?	Yes	$1	6.0¢	Поражение
Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after June 2026 meeting?	Yes	$1	0.2¢	Поражение
US bank failure by June 30?	No	$52	44.6¢	Победа
Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?	Yes	$3	0.1¢	Поражение
Will ByteDance have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$2	0.2¢	Поражение
Sharjah ruler Sultan bin Muhammad Al-Qasimi arrested by May 31?	Yes	$14	6.1¢	Поражение
Bank of England increases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2026 meeting?	Yes	$7	0.2¢	Поражение
ECB rate hike in 2026?	No	$5	15.0¢	Поражение
ECB rate hike in 2026?	Yes	$78	89.3¢	Победа
Will Alaska Airlines announce bankruptcy by December 31?	Yes	$5	3.1¢	Поражение
Will the Bank of Canada decrease the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the July interest rate announcement?	No	$96	87.6¢	Победа
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$54	6.7¢	Поражение
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$2	0.6¢	Поражение
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	$14	68.0¢	Победа
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$12	60.0¢	Победа
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in May?	Yes	$1	0.6¢	Поражение
Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the August meeting?	Yes	$1	0.2¢	Поражение
Bank of England decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2026 meeting?	Yes	$3	0.1¢	Поражение
Will the Bank of Canada announce a 25 bps decrease at the April meeting?	Yes	$0	0.2¢	Поражение
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	$3	0.1¢	Поражение
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$167	2.4¢	Поражение
Will xAI have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	$0	0.2¢	Поражение
Will ByteDance have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	$2	0.2¢	Поражение
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30?	Yes	$1	2.0¢	Поражение
Tea FDV above $200M one day after launch	Yes	$4	11.0¢	Поражение
Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2026 meeting?	Yes	$7	6.2¢	Поражение
Will the US add at least 200k jobs in May?	Yes	$0	1.0¢	Поражение
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$1	0.2¢	Поражение
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$1.0k	40.4¢	Победа
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$2	0.2¢	Поражение
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	Yes	$35	3.5¢	Поражение
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	$2	0.2¢	Поражение
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.0% at the end of 2026?	Yes	$12	0.2¢	Поражение
Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the August meeting?	Yes	$2	0.2¢	Поражение
Will the Eurozone's 2026 Annual Inflation be between 1.6% and 1.8%?	Yes	$0	0.4¢	Поражение
Will Joe Biden be arrested before 2027?	Yes	$2	2.2¢	Поражение
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after June 2026 meeting?	No	$6	6.0¢	Поражение
Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30?	Yes	$15	3.9¢	Поражение
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≤1.0% at the end of 2026?	Yes	$0	0.2¢	Поражение
Will the Bank of Canada decrease the target for the overnight rate by 50+ bps at the July interest rate announcement?	Yes	$1	0.2¢	Поражение
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$12	4.0¢	Поражение

Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?Поражение
Yes$0 @ 0.2¢
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?Победа
No$432 @ 83.4¢
Bank of England decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2026 meeting?Поражение
Yes$7 @ 0.1¢
Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 50+ bps at the July interest rate announcement?Поражение
Yes$1 @ 0.1¢
Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?Поражение
Yes$3 @ 0.2¢
Will DeepSeek have the second-best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026?Поражение
Yes$2 @ 0.1¢
Will Cerebras' market cap be between $30B and $40B at market close on IPO day?Поражение
Yes$2 @ 0.4¢
Will the Bank of Canada announce an increase at the June meeting?Поражение
Yes$7 @ 0.2¢
Will Moonshot have the second-best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026?Поражение
Yes$1 @ 0.1¢
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia make no change to the target for the cash rate after the May Meeting?Поражение
Yes$1 @ 6.0¢
Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after June 2026 meeting?Поражение
Yes$1 @ 0.2¢
US bank failure by June 30?Победа
No$52 @ 44.6¢
Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?Поражение
Yes$3 @ 0.1¢
Will ByteDance have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026?Поражение
Yes$2 @ 0.2¢
Sharjah ruler Sultan bin Muhammad Al-Qasimi arrested by May 31?Поражение
Yes$14 @ 6.1¢
Bank of England increases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2026 meeting?Поражение
Yes$7 @ 0.2¢
ECB rate hike in 2026?Поражение
No$5 @ 15.0¢
ECB rate hike in 2026?Победа
Yes$78 @ 89.3¢
Will Alaska Airlines announce bankruptcy by December 31?Поражение
Yes$5 @ 3.1¢
Will the Bank of Canada decrease the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the July interest rate announcement?Победа
No$96 @ 87.6¢
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026?Поражение
Yes$54 @ 6.7¢
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?Поражение
Yes$2 @ 0.6¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?Победа
No$14 @ 68.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Победа
No$12 @ 60.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in May?Поражение
Yes$1 @ 0.6¢
Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the August meeting?Поражение
Yes$1 @ 0.2¢
Bank of England decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2026 meeting?Поражение
Yes$3 @ 0.1¢
Will the Bank of Canada announce a 25 bps decrease at the April meeting?Поражение
Yes$0 @ 0.2¢
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the June 2026 meeting?Поражение
Yes$3 @ 0.1¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Поражение
Yes$167 @ 2.4¢
Will xAI have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026?Поражение
Yes$0 @ 0.2¢
Will ByteDance have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026?Поражение
Yes$2 @ 0.2¢
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30?Поражение
Yes$1 @ 2.0¢
Tea FDV above $200M one day after launchПоражение
Yes$4 @ 11.0¢
Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2026 meeting?Поражение
Yes$7 @ 6.2¢
Will the US add at least 200k jobs in May?Поражение
Yes$0 @ 1.0¢
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the July 2026 meeting?Поражение
Yes$1 @ 0.2¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Победа
Yes$1.0k @ 40.4¢
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the July 2026 meeting?Поражение
Yes$2 @ 0.2¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?Поражение
Yes$35 @ 3.5¢
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the June 2026 meeting?Поражение
Yes$2 @ 0.2¢
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.0% at the end of 2026?Поражение
Yes$12 @ 0.2¢
Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the August meeting?Поражение
Yes$2 @ 0.2¢
Will the Eurozone's 2026 Annual Inflation be between 1.6% and 1.8%?Поражение
Yes$0 @ 0.4¢
Will Joe Biden be arrested before 2027?Поражение
Yes$2 @ 2.2¢
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after June 2026 meeting?Поражение
No$6 @ 6.0¢
Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30?Поражение
Yes$15 @ 3.9¢
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≤1.0% at the end of 2026?Поражение
Yes$0 @ 0.2¢
Will the Bank of Canada decrease the target for the overnight rate by 50+ bps at the July interest rate announcement?Поражение
Yes$1 @ 0.2¢
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Поражение
Yes$12 @ 4.0¢

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Текущие позиции

Рынок	Сфера	Исход	Размер	Вход
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.25% or lower before 2027?	Политика	No	$1.5k	87.5¢
Will Santander fail by June 30, 2026?	Экономика	No	$1.0k	98.5¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Политика	No	$923	92.9¢
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.0% or lower before 2027?	Политика	No	$906	90.9¢
Trump out as President before 2027?	Политика	No	$900	90.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	Геополитика	No	$795	99.4¢
JD Vance out as VP by June 30?	Политика	No	$659	99.1¢
Major U.S. bank bailout before 2027?	Экономика	No	$644	72.4¢
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?	Экономика	No	$631	85.0¢
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.75% or lower before 2027?	Политика	No	$618	91.6¢
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	Экономика	Yes	$604	36.9¢
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.5% or lower before 2027?	Политика	No	$600	59.4¢
Will Deutsche Bank fail by June 30, 2026?	Экономика	No	$516	99.0¢
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?	Экономика	No	$471	75.5¢
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0% or lower before 2027?	Политика	No	$453	92.1¢
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.25% or lower before 2027?	Политика	No	$406	92.1¢
Xi Jinping out by June 30?	Геополитика	No	$379	99.3¢
NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine in June 30, 2026?	Политика	No	$377	96.8¢
US x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	Политика	No	$322	97.8¢
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30?	Политика	No	$322	98.0¢
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.5% or lower before 2027?	Политика	No	$307	91.0¢
Record crypto liquidation in 2026?	Крипто	No	$220	75.7¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	—	No	$199	89.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Политика	No	$198	98.8¢
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	Геополитика	No	$197	98.4¢
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?	Политика	No	$195	97.7¢
Major CEX insolvent in 2026?	Крипто	No	$180	90.0¢
Fed abolished before 2027?	Политика	No	$178	91.6¢
Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027?	Политика	No	$136	90.4¢
Obama arrested before 2027?	Политика	No	$122	84.7¢

Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.25% or lower before 2027?Политика
No$1.5k @ 87.5¢
Will Santander fail by June 30, 2026?Экономика
No$1.0k @ 98.5¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Политика
No$923 @ 92.9¢
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.0% or lower before 2027?Политика
No$906 @ 90.9¢
Trump out as President before 2027?Политика
No$900 @ 90.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?Геополитика
No$795 @ 99.4¢
JD Vance out as VP by June 30?Политика
No$659 @ 99.1¢
Major U.S. bank bailout before 2027?Экономика
No$644 @ 72.4¢
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?Экономика
No$631 @ 85.0¢
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.75% or lower before 2027?Политика
No$618 @ 91.6¢
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?Экономика
Yes$604 @ 36.9¢
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.5% or lower before 2027?Политика
No$600 @ 59.4¢
Will Deutsche Bank fail by June 30, 2026?Экономика
No$516 @ 99.0¢
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?Экономика
No$471 @ 75.5¢
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0% or lower before 2027?Политика
No$453 @ 92.1¢
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.25% or lower before 2027?Политика
No$406 @ 92.1¢
Xi Jinping out by June 30?Геополитика
No$379 @ 99.3¢
NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine in June 30, 2026?Политика
No$377 @ 96.8¢
US x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?Политика
No$322 @ 97.8¢
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30?Политика
No$322 @ 98.0¢
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.5% or lower before 2027?Политика
No$307 @ 91.0¢
Record crypto liquidation in 2026?Крипто
No$220 @ 75.7¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?—
No$199 @ 89.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Политика
No$198 @ 98.8¢
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?Геополитика
No$197 @ 98.4¢
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?Политика
No$195 @ 97.7¢
Major CEX insolvent in 2026?Крипто
No$180 @ 90.0¢
Fed abolished before 2027?Политика
No$178 @ 91.6¢
Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027?Политика
No$136 @ 90.4¢
Obama arrested before 2027?Политика
No$122 @ 84.7¢