0x8a7b…782f

Профи

Эдж

+3.8pp

ROI

+20%

Доля побед

13% @ 8.9¢

Brier

0.035

Сделок

1734

Ср. размер

$15

Динамика ROI

Специализация по сферам

Сфера	Попадания	ROI	Ставки
Other	23% (21/93)	-10%	93
Политика	43% (30/70)	-8%	70
Экономика	46% (18/39)	+20%	39
Геополитика	52% (13/25)	+7%	25
Технологии	0% (0/19)	-100%	19
Крипто	50% (1/2)	+22%	2
Спорт	100% (1/1)	+5%	1

Other93 ставки
Попадания
23% (21/93)
ROI
-10%
Политика70 ставки
Попадания
43% (30/70)
ROI
-8%
Экономика39 ставки
Попадания
46% (18/39)
ROI
+20%
Геополитика25 ставки
Попадания
52% (13/25)
ROI
+7%
Технологии19 ставки
Попадания
0% (0/19)
ROI
-100%
Крипто2 ставки
Попадания
50% (1/2)
ROI
+22%
Спорт1 ставки
Попадания
100% (1/1)
ROI
+5%

История результатов

34% попаданий · 84/249

Рынок	Исход	Размер	Вход	Итог
Will PPI YoY be between 5.0% and 5.9% in May?	No	$10	51.0¢	Победа
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	$16	0.2¢	Поражение
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	No	$618	79.8¢	Победа
Will the 10-year Treasury hit 4.00% (LOW) in April?	No	$166	83.0¢	Победа
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	No	$37	76.5¢	Поражение
Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$1	1.2¢	Поражение
Will Amazon have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	$1	0.2¢	Поражение
Bank of England decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2026 meeting?	Yes	$7	0.1¢	Поражение
Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 50+ bps at the July interest rate announcement?	Yes	$1	0.1¢	Поражение
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	$5	12.0¢	Поражение
Will Alibaba have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$0	0.2¢	Поражение
Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	$3	0.2¢	Поражение
Will DeepSeek have the second-best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	$2	0.1¢	Поражение
Will Cerebras' market cap be between $30B and $40B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	$2	0.4¢	Поражение
Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$16	40.0¢	Поражение
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?	Yes	$88	88.0¢	Поражение
Will the Bank of Canada announce an increase at the June meeting?	Yes	$31	0.9¢	Поражение
Will Z.ai have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	$1	0.2¢	Поражение
Will Moonshot have the second-best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	$1	0.1¢	Поражение
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia make no change to the target for the cash rate after the May Meeting?	Yes	$1	6.0¢	Поражение
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	$10	0.2¢	Поражение
Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after June 2026 meeting?	Yes	$1	0.2¢	Поражение
Will the US lose more than 150k jobs in March?	Yes	$0	0.4¢	Поражение
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair before May 15?	No	$1	86.0¢	Победа
US bank failure by June 30?	No	$52	44.6¢	Победа
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	No	$70	41.0¢	Поражение
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$440	52.5¢	Победа
S&P 500 breaks its losing streak this week?	Yes	$25	33.0¢	Победа
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?	Yes	$323	82.1¢	Победа
Trump out as President by August 31?	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Поражение
Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?	Yes	$3	0.1¢	Поражение
Will ByteDance have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$2	0.2¢	Поражение
Will the Bank of Israel hike by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting?	Yes	$1	0.1¢	Поражение
Sharjah ruler Sultan bin Muhammad Al-Qasimi arrested by May 31?	Yes	$14	6.1¢	Поражение
Bank of England increases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2026 meeting?	Yes	$7	0.2¢	Поражение
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	No	$405	81.0¢	Победа
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$25	0.6¢	Поражение
Will the Bank of Canada announce an increase at the April meeting?	Yes	$1	1.2¢	Поражение
Fed Rate Hike by June 2026 Meeting?	Yes	$2	1.0¢	Поражение
Will Alibaba have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	$1	0.2¢	Поражение
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$59	0.7¢	Поражение
Will the Bank of Canada decrease the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the July interest rate announcement?	No	$96	87.6¢	Победа
Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 31?	Yes	$34	6.0¢	Поражение
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$13	0.2¢	Поражение
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	$609	68.9¢	Победа
Will the Bank of Korea hike by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting?	Yes	$2	16.0¢	Победа
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	$146	73.0¢	Победа
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	$14	68.0¢	Победа
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$12	60.0¢	Победа
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in May?	Yes	$1	0.6¢	Поражение

Will PPI YoY be between 5.0% and 5.9% in May?Победа
No$10 @ 51.0¢
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?Поражение
Yes$16 @ 0.2¢
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?Победа
No$618 @ 79.8¢
Will the 10-year Treasury hit 4.00% (LOW) in April?Победа
No$166 @ 83.0¢
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?Поражение
No$37 @ 76.5¢
Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?Поражение
Yes$1 @ 1.2¢
Will Amazon have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?Поражение
Yes$1 @ 0.2¢
Bank of England decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2026 meeting?Поражение
Yes$7 @ 0.1¢
Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 50+ bps at the July interest rate announcement?Поражение
Yes$1 @ 0.1¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?Поражение
Yes$5 @ 12.0¢
Will Alibaba have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?Поражение
Yes$0 @ 0.2¢
Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?Поражение
Yes$3 @ 0.2¢
Will DeepSeek have the second-best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026?Поражение
Yes$2 @ 0.1¢
Will Cerebras' market cap be between $30B and $40B at market close on IPO day?Поражение
Yes$2 @ 0.4¢
Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026?Поражение
Yes$16 @ 40.0¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?Поражение
Yes$88 @ 88.0¢
Will the Bank of Canada announce an increase at the June meeting?Поражение
Yes$31 @ 0.9¢
Will Z.ai have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?Поражение
Yes$1 @ 0.2¢
Will Moonshot have the second-best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026?Поражение
Yes$1 @ 0.1¢
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia make no change to the target for the cash rate after the May Meeting?Поражение
Yes$1 @ 6.0¢
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?Поражение
Yes$10 @ 0.2¢
Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after June 2026 meeting?Поражение
Yes$1 @ 0.2¢
Will the US lose more than 150k jobs in March?Поражение
Yes$0 @ 0.4¢
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair before May 15?Победа
No$1 @ 86.0¢
US bank failure by June 30?Победа
No$52 @ 44.6¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Поражение
No$70 @ 41.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Победа
Yes$440 @ 52.5¢
S&P 500 breaks its losing streak this week?Победа
Yes$25 @ 33.0¢
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?Победа
Yes$323 @ 82.1¢
Trump out as President by August 31?Поражение
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?Поражение
Yes$3 @ 0.1¢
Will ByteDance have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026?Поражение
Yes$2 @ 0.2¢
Will the Bank of Israel hike by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting?Поражение
Yes$1 @ 0.1¢
Sharjah ruler Sultan bin Muhammad Al-Qasimi arrested by May 31?Поражение
Yes$14 @ 6.1¢
Bank of England increases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2026 meeting?Поражение
Yes$7 @ 0.2¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?Победа
No$405 @ 81.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?Поражение
Yes$25 @ 0.6¢
Will the Bank of Canada announce an increase at the April meeting?Поражение
Yes$1 @ 1.2¢
Fed Rate Hike by June 2026 Meeting?Поражение
Yes$2 @ 1.0¢
Will Alibaba have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?Поражение
Yes$1 @ 0.2¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?Поражение
Yes$59 @ 0.7¢
Will the Bank of Canada decrease the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the July interest rate announcement?Победа
No$96 @ 87.6¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 31?Поражение
Yes$34 @ 6.0¢
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?Поражение
Yes$13 @ 0.2¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Победа
No$609 @ 68.9¢
Will the Bank of Korea hike by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting?Победа
Yes$2 @ 16.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Победа
No$146 @ 73.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?Победа
No$14 @ 68.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Победа
No$12 @ 60.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in May?Поражение
Yes$1 @ 0.6¢

Недавние сделки

в реальном времени с Polymarket · нажмите на столбец для сортировки

Загрузка недавних сделок…

Текущие позиции

Рынок	Сфера	Исход	Размер	Вход
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.25% or lower before 2027?	Политика	No	$1.0k	88.1¢
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.0% or lower before 2027?	Политика	No	$906	90.9¢
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?	Экономика	No	$691	76.6¢
Major U.S. bank bailout before 2027?	Экономика	No	$656	72.6¢
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.75% or lower before 2027?	Политика	No	$561	91.6¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Политика	Yes	$467	59.9¢
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?	Экономика	No	$460	92.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Политика	No	$273	91.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Политика	No	$228	76.0¢
ECB rate cut in 2026?	Экономика	No	$191	83.6¢
Major CEX insolvent in 2026?	Крипто	No	$188	90.1¢
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $4,500 (LOW) in December?	Other	No	$186	93.0¢
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates stay above 2.5% in 2026?	Other	Yes	$170	79.4¢
Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027?	Политика	No	$136	90.4¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.7% before 2027?	Политика	No	$132	79.0¢
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,200 (LOW) in December?	Other	No	$117	89.0¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Политика	Yes	$104	10.4¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 1.0% before 2027?	Политика	No	$97	90.2¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.0% before 2027?	Политика	No	$87	78.2¢
Will Dogecoin reach $0.48 by December 31, 2026?	Крипто	No	$73	72.5¢
Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027?	Политика	No	$62	88.0¢
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.25% at the end of 2026?	Политика	No	$57	90.5¢
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027?	Политика	No	$52	92.0¢
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.25% or higher before 2027?	Политика	No	$50	93.7¢
Will Deutsche Bank fail by end of 2026?	Экономика	No	$48	96.1¢
Will US Bank fail by end of 2026?	Экономика	No	$48	96.0¢
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?	Экономика	Yes	$45	34.8¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 2.0% before 2027?	Политика	No	$31	88.6¢
Will Solana dip to $30 by December 31, 2026?	Крипто	No	$25	79.0¢
Trump tries to fire Warsh in 2026?	Политика	No	$24	80.0¢

Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.25% or lower before 2027?Политика
No$1.0k @ 88.1¢
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.0% or lower before 2027?Политика
No$906 @ 90.9¢
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?Экономика
No$691 @ 76.6¢
Major U.S. bank bailout before 2027?Экономика
No$656 @ 72.6¢
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.75% or lower before 2027?Политика
No$561 @ 91.6¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?Политика
Yes$467 @ 59.9¢
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?Экономика
No$460 @ 92.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Политика
No$273 @ 91.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Политика
No$228 @ 76.0¢
ECB rate cut in 2026?Экономика
No$191 @ 83.6¢
Major CEX insolvent in 2026?Крипто
No$188 @ 90.1¢
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $4,500 (LOW) in December?Other
No$186 @ 93.0¢
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates stay above 2.5% in 2026?Other
Yes$170 @ 79.4¢
Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027?Политика
No$136 @ 90.4¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.7% before 2027?Политика
No$132 @ 79.0¢
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,200 (LOW) in December?Other
No$117 @ 89.0¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Политика
Yes$104 @ 10.4¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 1.0% before 2027?Политика
No$97 @ 90.2¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.0% before 2027?Политика
No$87 @ 78.2¢
Will Dogecoin reach $0.48 by December 31, 2026?Крипто
No$73 @ 72.5¢
Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027?Политика
No$62 @ 88.0¢
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.25% at the end of 2026?Политика
No$57 @ 90.5¢
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027?Политика
No$52 @ 92.0¢
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.25% or higher before 2027?Политика
No$50 @ 93.7¢
Will Deutsche Bank fail by end of 2026?Экономика
No$48 @ 96.1¢
Will US Bank fail by end of 2026?Экономика
No$48 @ 96.0¢
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?Экономика
Yes$45 @ 34.8¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 2.0% before 2027?Политика
No$31 @ 88.6¢
Will Solana dip to $30 by December 31, 2026?Крипто
No$25 @ 79.0¢
Trump tries to fire Warsh in 2026?Политика
No$24 @ 80.0¢