0x8a4c…2c4c

Профи

Эдж

+14.7pp

ROI

+40%

Доля побед

68% @ 53.2¢

Brier

0.177

Сделок

770

Ср. размер

$73

Специализация по сферам

Сфера	Попадания	ROI	Ставки
Other	57% (29/51)	+104%	51
Политика	56% (20/36)	+12%	36
Крипто	33% (3/9)	-6%	9
Геополитика	75% (6/8)	+45%	8
Экономика	57% (4/7)	+31%	7
Спорт	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other51 ставки
Попадания
57% (29/51)
ROI
+104%
Политика36 ставки
Попадания
56% (20/36)
ROI
+12%
Крипто9 ставки
Попадания
33% (3/9)
ROI
-6%
Геополитика8 ставки
Попадания
75% (6/8)
ROI
+45%
Экономика7 ставки
Попадания
57% (4/7)
ROI
+31%
Спорт1 ставки
Попадания
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

История результатов

55% попаданий · 62/112

Рынок	Исход	Размер	Вход	Итог
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	No	$529	83.8¢	Победа
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?	Yes	$239	40.8¢	Победа
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	$3	44.0¢	Поражение
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on April 25?	No	$250	81.9¢	Победа
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$500	76.7¢	Победа
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?	Yes	$43	42.9¢	Победа
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	$408	71.8¢	Поражение
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	No	$200	7.9¢	Поражение
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	Yes	$270	0.4¢	Поражение
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	$300	85.3¢	Победа
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$14	21.0¢	Победа
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	No	$60	3.8¢	Поражение
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August?	No	$71	71.0¢	Победа
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	$200	84.8¢	Победа
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?	Yes	$106	3.2¢	Поражение
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?	No	$50	0.2¢	Поражение
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	Yes	$100	6.7¢	Поражение
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	Yes	$143	18.1¢	Победа
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?	No	$277	79.1¢	Победа
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	Yes	$10	21.0¢	Победа
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	$5.0k	69.3¢	Победа
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	Yes	$250	68.5¢	Поражение
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?	Yes	$390	39.0¢	Поражение
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?	Yes	$200	18.0¢	Поражение
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	$290	45.4¢	Победа
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	Yes	$103	15.0¢	Поражение
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$108	43.0¢	Поражение
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	$450	69.2¢	Победа
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	Yes	$310	4.7¢	Победа
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	$1.5k	48.0¢	Победа
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?	Yes	$50	10.0¢	Поражение
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7?	No	$1.2k	75.2¢	Победа
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	Yes	$95	19.0¢	Победа
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in August?	No	$317	44.4¢	Поражение
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?	Yes	$60	61.8¢	Победа
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	No	$200	65.7¢	Победа
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	No	$570	81.4¢	Победа
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	$1.5k	62.1¢	Поражение
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June?	No	$811	73.0¢	Победа
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	No	$90	68.2¢	Победа
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15?	Yes	$590	39.3¢	Победа
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?	No	$19	15.9¢	Победа
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 29?	No	$154	53.6¢	Победа
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	$50	34.0¢	Поражение
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$100	6.8¢	Поражение
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?	Yes	$30	6.0¢	Победа
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?	No	$100	89.0¢	Победа
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	No	$200	88.0¢	Победа
Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	$1.2k	44.7¢	Поражение
Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	$2.4k	39.8¢	Победа

Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?Победа
No$529 @ 83.8¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Победа
Yes$239 @ 40.8¢
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 by December 31, 2026?Поражение
No$3 @ 44.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on April 25?Победа
No$250 @ 81.9¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Победа
No$500 @ 76.7¢
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?Победа
Yes$43 @ 42.9¢
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 by December 31, 2026?Поражение
No$408 @ 71.8¢
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?Поражение
No$200 @ 7.9¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Поражение
Yes$270 @ 0.4¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Победа
No$300 @ 85.3¢
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?Победа
Yes$14 @ 21.0¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?Поражение
No$60 @ 3.8¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August?Победа
No$71 @ 71.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Победа
No$200 @ 84.8¢
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?Поражение
Yes$106 @ 3.2¢
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?Поражение
No$50 @ 0.2¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Поражение
Yes$100 @ 6.7¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Победа
Yes$143 @ 18.1¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?Победа
No$277 @ 79.1¢
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Победа
Yes$10 @ 21.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Победа
No$5.0k @ 69.3¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Поражение
Yes$250 @ 68.5¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?Поражение
Yes$390 @ 39.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?Поражение
Yes$200 @ 18.0¢
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?Победа
No$290 @ 45.4¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?Поражение
Yes$103 @ 15.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Поражение
Yes$108 @ 43.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?Победа
No$450 @ 69.2¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Победа
Yes$310 @ 4.7¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Победа
No$1.5k @ 48.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?Поражение
Yes$50 @ 10.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7?Победа
No$1.2k @ 75.2¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Победа
Yes$95 @ 19.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in August?Поражение
No$317 @ 44.4¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?Победа
Yes$60 @ 61.8¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?Победа
No$200 @ 65.7¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Победа
No$570 @ 81.4¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Поражение
No$1.5k @ 62.1¢
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June?Победа
No$811 @ 73.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?Победа
No$90 @ 68.2¢
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15?Победа
Yes$590 @ 39.3¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?Победа
No$19 @ 15.9¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 29?Победа
No$154 @ 53.6¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?Поражение
No$50 @ 34.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?Поражение
Yes$100 @ 6.8¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?Победа
Yes$30 @ 6.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?Победа
No$100 @ 89.0¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?Победа
No$200 @ 88.0¢
Fed rate hike in 2026?Поражение
No$1.2k @ 44.7¢
Fed rate hike in 2026?Победа
Yes$2.4k @ 39.8¢

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Текущие позиции

Рынок	Сфера	Исход	Размер	Вход
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	Политика	No	$3.2k	81.3¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	Политика	No	$1.5k	88.0¢
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?	Other	Yes	$1.2k	13.6¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Политика	No	$1000	70.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Политика	No	$1000	51.0¢
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	Экономика	Yes	$939	25.6¢
New pandemic before 2028?	Other	No	$500	78.6¢
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Наука	No	$500	90.4¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Политика	No	$500	78.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	Крипто	No	$480	55.9¢
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	Крипто	No	$410	73.2¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Политика	No	$400	32.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Политика	Yes	$290	11.9¢
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Политика	Yes	$209	9.9¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Политика	No	$205	80.5¢
Will a new pneumonic plague case be confirmed in Russia by October 15?	Геополитика	No	$200	89.7¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Политика	No	$200	48.0¢
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December?	Other	Yes	$200	8.8¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?	Политика	No	$100	12.2¢
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?	Технологии	Yes	$55	17.5¢
5kt meteor strike in 2026?	Технологии	Yes	$40	32.3¢
ECB rate cut in 2026?	Экономика	Yes	$36	15.9¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Политика	Yes	$35	26.8¢
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Политика	Yes	$20	4.8¢
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Политика	Yes	$20	4.8¢
Will EUR/USD hit 1.20 (High) in 2026?	Other	Yes	$19	63.0¢

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?Политика
No$3.2k @ 81.3¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?Политика
No$1.5k @ 88.0¢
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?Other
Yes$1.2k @ 13.6¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?Политика
No$1000 @ 70.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?Политика
No$1000 @ 51.0¢
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?Экономика
Yes$939 @ 25.6¢
New pandemic before 2028?Other
No$500 @ 78.6¢
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?Наука
No$500 @ 90.4¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Политика
No$500 @ 78.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?Крипто
No$480 @ 55.9¢
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?Крипто
No$410 @ 73.2¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Политика
No$400 @ 32.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Политика
Yes$290 @ 11.9¢
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Политика
Yes$209 @ 9.9¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?Политика
No$205 @ 80.5¢
Will a new pneumonic plague case be confirmed in Russia by October 15?Геополитика
No$200 @ 89.7¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?Политика
No$200 @ 48.0¢
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December?Other
Yes$200 @ 8.8¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?Политика
No$100 @ 12.2¢
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?Технологии
Yes$55 @ 17.5¢
5kt meteor strike in 2026?Технологии
Yes$40 @ 32.3¢
ECB rate cut in 2026?Экономика
Yes$36 @ 15.9¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Политика
Yes$35 @ 26.8¢
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Политика
Yes$20 @ 4.8¢
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Политика
Yes$20 @ 4.8¢
Will EUR/USD hit 1.20 (High) in 2026?Other
Yes$19 @ 63.0¢