0x88e2…7489

Прибыльный

Эдж

+12.7pp

ROI

+37%

Доля побед

50% @ 37.1¢

Brier

0.233

Сделок

2287

Ср. размер

$456

Динамика ROI

Специализация по сферам

Сфера	Попадания	ROI	Ставки
Other	36% (36/101)	+88%	101
Политика	48% (47/98)	+18%	98
Геополитика	53% (16/30)	-9%	30
Спорт	33% (1/3)	+51%	3
Технологии	100% (1/1)	+6%	1

Other101 ставки
Попадания
36% (36/101)
ROI
+88%
Политика98 ставки
Попадания
48% (47/98)
ROI
+18%
Геополитика30 ставки
Попадания
53% (16/30)
ROI
-9%
Спорт3 ставки
Попадания
33% (1/3)
ROI
+51%
Технологии1 ставки
Попадания
100% (1/1)
ROI
+6%

История результатов

43% попаданий · 101/233

Рынок	Исход	Размер	Вход	Итог
Will Benjamin Netanyahu receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	No	$2	63.0¢	Победа
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	$41	48.0¢	Поражение
Will parties below the electoral threshold receive between 6% and 8% of the vote in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	$115	37.0¢	Поражение
Will parties below the electoral threshold receive 8% or higher of the vote in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	$1.5k	75.0¢	Победа
Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?	Yes	$2.2k	55.0¢	Победа
Will the Netanyahu bloc win the Israeli election by 7+ seats?	No	$17	86.0¢	Победа
Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	Yes	$14.7k	86.2¢	Победа
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	$843	79.0¢	Победа
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31?	No	$3.2k	79.9¢	Победа
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	No	$6.9k	89.0¢	Победа
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	Yes	$708	7.9¢	Поражение
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	$2.4k	71.0¢	Победа
Will Together win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	$36	60.0¢	Победа
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	$4.2k	86.4¢	Победа
Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	$55	77.0¢	Победа
Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	$878	73.0¢	Поражение
Will Otzma Yehudit win the fourth-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	$69	81.0¢	Победа
Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?	No	$4	75.0¢	Победа
Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	$915	61.0¢	Поражение
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	$2.7k	61.0¢	Поражение
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	$3.3k	33.4¢	Победа
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?	Yes	$624	89.0¢	Победа
Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	No	$152	53.8¢	Поражение
Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?	Yes	$17.4k	94.1¢	Победа
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	No	$2.8k	85.0¢	Победа
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?	No	$899	46.6¢	Поражение
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?	Yes	$3.1k	31.4¢	Победа
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19?	Yes	$3.0k	60.0¢	Поражение
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	$419	11.0¢	Поражение
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	Yes	$600	8.0¢	Поражение
Will Khamzat Chimaev win by KO or TKO?	Yes	$500	20.0¢	Поражение
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$67.4k	85.3¢	Победа
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$57.3k	22.2¢	Поражение
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?	Yes	$94	11.0¢	Поражение
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?	Yes	$12.4k	43.5¢	Победа
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	No	$8.9k	74.0¢	Поражение
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?	Yes	$8.2k	24.9¢	Поражение
Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?	No	$859	73.6¢	Победа
Military action against Iran ends by April 9, 2026?	Yes	$17	6.5¢	Победа
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	$36	5.5¢	Поражение
Military action against Iran ends by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$579	84.6¢	Победа
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	Yes	$320	47.0¢	Поражение
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$16.0k	13.3¢	Поражение
France vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5	Under	$8.8k	53.3¢	Победа
Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by March 31?	Yes	$33	15.0¢	Поражение
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 24, 2026?	Yes	$4	3.0¢	Поражение
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?	No	$2.7k	89.0¢	Победа
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	$13.0k	64.1¢	Победа
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	$131	4.6¢	Поражение
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?	No	$9.4k	88.0¢	Победа

Will Benjamin Netanyahu receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?Победа
No$2 @ 63.0¢
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Поражение
Yes$41 @ 48.0¢
Will parties below the electoral threshold receive between 6% and 8% of the vote in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Поражение
Yes$115 @ 37.0¢
Will parties below the electoral threshold receive 8% or higher of the vote in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Победа
No$1.5k @ 75.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?Победа
Yes$2.2k @ 55.0¢
Will the Netanyahu bloc win the Israeli election by 7+ seats?Победа
No$17 @ 86.0¢
Will there be no Hormuz agreement?Победа
Yes$14.7k @ 86.2¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Победа
Yes$843 @ 79.0¢
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31?Победа
No$3.2k @ 79.9¢
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?Победа
No$6.9k @ 89.0¢
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?Поражение
Yes$708 @ 7.9¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Победа
No$2.4k @ 71.0¢
Will Together win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Победа
Yes$36 @ 60.0¢
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Победа
No$4.2k @ 86.4¢
Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Победа
No$55 @ 77.0¢
Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Поражение
No$878 @ 73.0¢
Will Otzma Yehudit win the fourth-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Победа
No$69 @ 81.0¢
Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?Победа
No$4 @ 75.0¢
Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Поражение
Yes$915 @ 61.0¢
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Поражение
No$2.7k @ 61.0¢
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Победа
Yes$3.3k @ 33.4¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?Победа
Yes$624 @ 89.0¢
Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?Поражение
No$152 @ 53.8¢
Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?Победа
Yes$17.4k @ 94.1¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?Победа
No$2.8k @ 85.0¢
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Поражение
No$899 @ 46.6¢
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Победа
Yes$3.1k @ 31.4¢
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19?Поражение
Yes$3.0k @ 60.0¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?Поражение
Yes$419 @ 11.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?Поражение
Yes$600 @ 8.0¢
Will Khamzat Chimaev win by KO or TKO?Поражение
Yes$500 @ 20.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Победа
No$67.4k @ 85.3¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Поражение
Yes$57.3k @ 22.2¢
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?Поражение
Yes$94 @ 11.0¢
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?Победа
Yes$12.4k @ 43.5¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Поражение
No$8.9k @ 74.0¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?Поражение
Yes$8.2k @ 24.9¢
Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?Победа
No$859 @ 73.6¢
Military action against Iran ends by April 9, 2026?Победа
Yes$17 @ 6.5¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Поражение
Yes$36 @ 5.5¢
Military action against Iran ends by April 30, 2026?Победа
Yes$579 @ 84.6¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Поражение
Yes$320 @ 47.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Поражение
Yes$16.0k @ 13.3¢
France vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5Победа
Under$8.8k @ 53.3¢
Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by March 31?Поражение
Yes$33 @ 15.0¢
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 24, 2026?Поражение
Yes$4 @ 3.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?Победа
No$2.7k @ 89.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Победа
No$13.0k @ 64.1¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Поражение
Yes$131 @ 4.6¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?Победа
No$9.4k @ 88.0¢

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Текущие позиции

Рынок	Сфера	Исход	Размер	Вход
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	Политика	No	$22.6k	89.0¢
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	Геополитика	No	$14.0k	70.5¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Геополитика	Yes	$11.2k	37.3¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Политика	No	$9.0k	82.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	Геополитика	Yes	$8.9k	83.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026?	Политика	No	$7.7k	95.1¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 15?	Геополитика	Yes	$6.7k	41.5¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Политика	No	$5.8k	65.0¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?	Политика	No	$5.3k	73.0¢
Will Saudi airspace be closed by December 31?	Политика	No	$4.3k	86.0¢
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?	Геополитика	No	$4.3k	88.0¢
Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	Политика	No	$2.9k	93.8¢
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?	Политика	No	$2.1k	74.0¢
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Политика	Yes	$920	3.0¢
Major airlines suspend Ben Gurion flights by November 30, 2026?	Политика	Yes	$905	16.6¢
Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?	Политика	Yes	$893	16.0¢
Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?	Геополитика	No	$594	75.7¢
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31?	Политика	Yes	$272	11.5¢
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by December 31?	Политика	No	$223	90.8¢
Israeli airspace closed by November 30, 2026?	Политика	Yes	$204	14.9¢
Major airlines suspend Ben Gurion flights by December 31, 2026?	Политика	Yes	$109	37.9¢
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Политика	Yes	$63	0.3¢
Will Azerbaijan join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	Политика	Yes	$5	6.5¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Политика	No	$2	63.0¢

Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?Политика
No$22.6k @ 89.0¢
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?Геополитика
No$14.0k @ 70.5¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Геополитика
Yes$11.2k @ 37.3¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Политика
No$9.0k @ 82.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?Геополитика
Yes$8.9k @ 83.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026?Политика
No$7.7k @ 95.1¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 15?Геополитика
Yes$6.7k @ 41.5¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Политика
No$5.8k @ 65.0¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?Политика
No$5.3k @ 73.0¢
Will Saudi airspace be closed by December 31?Политика
No$4.3k @ 86.0¢
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?Геополитика
No$4.3k @ 88.0¢
Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027?Политика
No$2.9k @ 93.8¢
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?Политика
No$2.1k @ 74.0¢
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Политика
Yes$920 @ 3.0¢
Major airlines suspend Ben Gurion flights by November 30, 2026?Политика
Yes$905 @ 16.6¢
Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?Политика
Yes$893 @ 16.0¢
Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?Геополитика
No$594 @ 75.7¢
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31?Политика
Yes$272 @ 11.5¢
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by December 31?Политика
No$223 @ 90.8¢
Israeli airspace closed by November 30, 2026?Политика
Yes$204 @ 14.9¢
Major airlines suspend Ben Gurion flights by December 31, 2026?Политика
Yes$109 @ 37.9¢
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Политика
Yes$63 @ 0.3¢
Will Azerbaijan join the Abraham Accords before 2027?Политика
Yes$5 @ 6.5¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?Политика
No$2 @ 63.0¢