0x87d1…3da3

Профи

Эдж

+6.0pp

ROI

+12%

Доля побед

49% @ 42.8¢

Brier

0.203

Сделок

703

Ср. размер

Динамика ROI

Специализация по сферам

Сфера	Попадания	ROI	Ставки
Other	52% (118/225)	+10%	225
Политика	43% (23/53)	+6%	53
Геополитика	0% (0/4)	-100%	4
Технологии	33% (1/3)	+29%	3
Спорт	50% (1/2)	+134%	2
Культура	100% (1/1)	+15%	1

Other225 ставки
Попадания
52% (118/225)
ROI
+10%
Политика53 ставки
Попадания
43% (23/53)
ROI
+6%
Геополитика4 ставки
Попадания
0% (0/4)
ROI
-100%
Технологии3 ставки
Попадания
33% (1/3)
ROI
+29%
Спорт2 ставки
Попадания
50% (1/2)
ROI
+134%
Культура1 ставки
Попадания
100% (1/1)
ROI
+15%

История результатов

50% попаданий · 144/288

Рынок	Исход	Размер	Вход	Итог
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	No	$130	52.8¢	Победа
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	Yes	$35	33.4¢	Поражение
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?	Yes	$11	47.1¢	Поражение
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 27?	Yes	$4	77.0¢	Победа
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$40	84.0¢	Победа
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30?	Yes	$1	6.0¢	Поражение
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?	No	$41	74.9¢	Победа
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	No	$32	59.5¢	Поражение
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	Yes	$2	37.0¢	Победа
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?	No	$9	7.3¢	Победа
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?	No	$8	17.2¢	Поражение
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?	Yes	$12	86.4¢	Победа
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	$4	2.2¢	Поражение
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?	No	$5	87.0¢	Победа
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by July 31?	No	$2	61.0¢	Победа
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by July 31?	Yes	$10	36.0¢	Поражение
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?	No	$50	78.5¢	Победа
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	No	$18	12.7¢	Поражение
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?	Yes	$6	3.2¢	Поражение
Will Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	No	$1	39.0¢	Победа
Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 31?	No	$15	83.9¢	Победа
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	No	$66	34.7¢	Поражение
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	Yes	$16	27.8¢	Победа
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?	No	$70	82.1¢	Победа
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?	No	$47	69.1¢	Победа
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?	Yes	$26	20.1¢	Поражение
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?	Yes	$31	71.8¢	Победа
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28?	Yes	$2	22.0¢	Поражение
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?	No	$27	61.6¢	Победа
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	$3	4.1¢	Поражение
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	No	$15	75.0¢	Победа
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	No	$47	32.0¢	Поражение
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	Yes	$96	39.7¢	Победа
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by July 31?	No	$2	33.7¢	Победа
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by July 31?	Yes	$3	18.0¢	Поражение
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	$43	58.2¢	Победа
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$15	16.3¢	Поражение
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?	No	$67	63.8¢	Победа
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?	Yes	$32	29.0¢	Поражение
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?	No	$24	80.4¢	Победа
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?	Yes	$8	12.2¢	Поражение
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?	No	$5	83.9¢	Победа
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?	Yes	$27	24.5¢	Поражение
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?	No	$74	79.0¢	Победа
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?	Yes	$22	10.6¢	Поражение
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	No	$470	67.2¢	Поражение
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	Yes	$238	34.0¢	Победа
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?	No	$28	33.1¢	Поражение
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$27	34.4¢	Победа
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	No	$8	60.9¢	Победа

Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?Победа
No$130 @ 52.8¢
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?Поражение
Yes$35 @ 33.4¢
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?Поражение
Yes$11 @ 47.1¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 27?Победа
Yes$4 @ 77.0¢
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by August 31, 2026?Победа
Yes$40 @ 84.0¢
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30?Поражение
Yes$1 @ 6.0¢
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?Победа
No$41 @ 74.9¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Поражение
No$32 @ 59.5¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Победа
Yes$2 @ 37.0¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?Победа
No$9 @ 7.3¢
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?Поражение
No$8 @ 17.2¢
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?Победа
Yes$12 @ 86.4¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Поражение
Yes$4 @ 2.2¢
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?Победа
No$5 @ 87.0¢
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by July 31?Победа
No$2 @ 61.0¢
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by July 31?Поражение
Yes$10 @ 36.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?Победа
No$50 @ 78.5¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Поражение
No$18 @ 12.7¢
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?Поражение
Yes$6 @ 3.2¢
Will Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?Победа
No$1 @ 39.0¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 31?Победа
No$15 @ 83.9¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Поражение
No$66 @ 34.7¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Победа
Yes$16 @ 27.8¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?Победа
No$70 @ 82.1¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?Победа
No$47 @ 69.1¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?Поражение
Yes$26 @ 20.1¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?Победа
Yes$31 @ 71.8¢
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28?Поражение
Yes$2 @ 22.0¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?Победа
No$27 @ 61.6¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?Поражение
Yes$3 @ 4.1¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?Победа
No$15 @ 75.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?Поражение
No$47 @ 32.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?Победа
Yes$96 @ 39.7¢
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by July 31?Победа
No$2 @ 33.7¢
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by July 31?Поражение
Yes$3 @ 18.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Победа
No$43 @ 58.2¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Поражение
Yes$15 @ 16.3¢
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?Победа
No$67 @ 63.8¢
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?Поражение
Yes$32 @ 29.0¢
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Победа
No$24 @ 80.4¢
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Поражение
Yes$8 @ 12.2¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?Победа
No$5 @ 83.9¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?Поражение
Yes$27 @ 24.5¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?Победа
No$74 @ 79.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?Поражение
Yes$22 @ 10.6¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Поражение
No$470 @ 67.2¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Победа
Yes$238 @ 34.0¢
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?Поражение
No$28 @ 33.1¢
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?Победа
Yes$27 @ 34.4¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?Победа
No$8 @ 60.9¢

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Текущие позиции

Рынок	Сфера	Исход	Размер	Вход
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	—	No	$153	79.8¢
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?	—	Yes	$141	86.7¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Политика	No	$121	82.3¢
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?	Политика	No	$52	33.7¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	—	Yes	$46	72.8¢
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?	Политика	Yes	$40	69.1¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by March 31, 2027?	—	Yes	$38	63.0¢
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?	Политика	Yes	$35	90.8¢
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Политика	No	$35	87.8¢
Will any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?	—	Yes	$34	32.2¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	—	Yes	$33	65.8¢
Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?	—	No	$32	66.6¢
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?	Политика	No	$32	71.4¢
Cuban regime falls in 2026?	Политика	No	$31	86.4¢
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	—	No	$30	84.2¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Политика	Yes	$30	17.7¢
Will any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?	—	No	$29	74.4¢
Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 25?	Политика	Yes	$28	86.0¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Геополитика	Yes	$28	33.0¢
Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?	—	No	$27	46.9¢
Will Trump visit Greenland by October 31?	Политика	No	$26	87.8¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States by September 30, 2026?	—	Yes	$22	9.6¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	—	Yes	$22	44.9¢
Will no listed leader be out before 2027?	—	Yes	$20	36.0¢
Iran full airspace closure by December 31?	—	Yes	$18	23.4¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?	—	Yes	$18	12.5¢
Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?	—	Yes	$18	29.6¢
Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?	—	Yes	$18	30.3¢
Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?	—	No	$16	73.0¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Политика	No	$16	77.0¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?—
No$153 @ 79.8¢
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?—
Yes$141 @ 86.7¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Политика
No$121 @ 82.3¢
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?Политика
No$52 @ 33.7¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?—
Yes$46 @ 72.8¢
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?Политика
Yes$40 @ 69.1¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by March 31, 2027?—
Yes$38 @ 63.0¢
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?Политика
Yes$35 @ 90.8¢
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Политика
No$35 @ 87.8¢
Will any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?—
Yes$34 @ 32.2¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?—
Yes$33 @ 65.8¢
Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?—
No$32 @ 66.6¢
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?Политика
No$32 @ 71.4¢
Cuban regime falls in 2026?Политика
No$31 @ 86.4¢
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?—
No$30 @ 84.2¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Политика
Yes$30 @ 17.7¢
Will any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?—
No$29 @ 74.4¢
Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 25?Политика
Yes$28 @ 86.0¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?Геополитика
Yes$28 @ 33.0¢
Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?—
No$27 @ 46.9¢
Will Trump visit Greenland by October 31?Политика
No$26 @ 87.8¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States by September 30, 2026?—
Yes$22 @ 9.6¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?—
Yes$22 @ 44.9¢
Will no listed leader be out before 2027?—
Yes$20 @ 36.0¢
Iran full airspace closure by December 31?—
Yes$18 @ 23.4¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?—
Yes$18 @ 12.5¢
Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?—
Yes$18 @ 29.6¢
Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?—
Yes$18 @ 30.3¢
Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?—
No$16 @ 73.0¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?Политика
No$16 @ 77.0¢