0x858b…a2ce

Прибыльный

Эдж

+3.0pp

ROI

+4%

Доля побед

37% @ 34.5¢

Brier

0.171

Сделок

2097

Ср. размер

Динамика ROI

Специализация по сферам

Сфера	Попадания	ROI	Ставки
Other	38% (92/240)	-1%	240
Наука	16% (19/120)	+13%	120
Технологии	55% (23/42)	+16%	42
Политика	25% (4/16)	+16%	16
Геополитика	13% (1/8)	+117%	8
Культура	25% (1/4)	+20%	4
Экономика	100% (1/1)	+104%	1

Other240 ставки
Попадания
38% (92/240)
ROI
-1%
Наука120 ставки
Попадания
16% (19/120)
ROI
+13%
Технологии42 ставки
Попадания
55% (23/42)
ROI
+16%
Политика16 ставки
Попадания
25% (4/16)
ROI
+16%
Геополитика8 ставки
Попадания
13% (1/8)
ROI
+117%
Культура4 ставки
Попадания
25% (1/4)
ROI
+20%
Экономика1 ставки
Попадания
100% (1/1)
ROI
+104%

История результатов

33% попаданий · 141/431

Рынок	Исход	Размер	Вход	Итог
Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?	Yes	$4	79.0¢	Победа
Will the Ornn H100 Index be at least $3.00 on October 31, 2026?	Yes	$2	22.0¢	Победа
Baidu announces a training pause by October 31?	No	$4	88.0¢	Победа
Alibaba announces a training pause by October 31?	No	$9	95.0¢	Победа
DeepSeek announces a training pause by October 31?	No	$4	88.0¢	Победа
ByteDance announces a training pause by October 31?	No	$4	89.0¢	Победа
Moonshot announces a training pause by October 31?	No	$9	88.5¢	Победа
Z.ai announces a training pause by October 31?	No	$4	89.0¢	Победа
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	$3	11.7¢	Победа
Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	$0	1.0¢	Поражение
Will Baidu have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	$0	0.4¢	Поражение
Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	$1	2.9¢	Победа
Will OpenAI be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	$1	5.0¢	Победа
Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	$1	5.0¢	Поражение
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	$9	47.0¢	Поражение
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	$0	0.9¢	Поражение
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 23?	Yes	$1	3.7¢	Поражение
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 9?	Yes	$15	30.6¢	Поражение
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 2?	Yes	$28	32.5¢	Поражение
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 23?	No	$9	76.0¢	Поражение
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on May 26?	Yes	$3	20.4¢	Поражение
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on July 6?	Yes	$5	22.1¢	Поражение
Will the next Grok model (4.7+) debut at a score of at least 1450 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	$8	41.5¢	Поражение
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on May 24?	Yes	$212	87.6¢	Победа
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on July 12?	Yes	$23	31.0¢	Победа
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on April 17?	No	$12	88.1¢	Победа
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on July 3?	Yes	$13	32.0¢	Поражение
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on July 11?	Yes	$3	14.3¢	Победа
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on July 4?	Yes	$18	54.0¢	Победа
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on July 5?	Yes	$10	50.5¢	Поражение
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 9?	Yes	$35	42.7¢	Поражение
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 24?	Yes	$18	14.8¢	Победа
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 2?	Yes	$15	29.7¢	Победа
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 8?	No	$7	70.5¢	Победа
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on May 31?	Yes	$8	7.4¢	Поражение
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 19?	Yes	$84	40.2¢	Победа
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 35°C on April 24?	No	$45	76.2¢	Поражение
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on May 26?	Yes	$12	39.3¢	Победа
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on July 11?	Yes	$15	28.0¢	Поражение
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on May 13?	Yes	$5	88.0¢	Победа
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 10?	Yes	$0	2.2¢	Поражение
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on May 26?	Yes	$1	1.0¢	Поражение
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on July 13?	Yes	$1	14.0¢	Поражение
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on May 25?	Yes	$2	20.5¢	Поражение
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on May 25?	No	$12	76.7¢	Победа
Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$3	32.0¢	Поражение
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on May 13?	Yes	$1	0.1¢	Поражение
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 2?	Yes	$9	25.5¢	Поражение
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on July 26?	Yes	$4	20.0¢	Поражение
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on July 2?	Yes	$0	1.0¢	Поражение

Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?Победа
Yes$4 @ 79.0¢
Will the Ornn H100 Index be at least $3.00 on October 31, 2026?Победа
Yes$2 @ 22.0¢
Baidu announces a training pause by October 31?Победа
No$4 @ 88.0¢
Alibaba announces a training pause by October 31?Победа
No$9 @ 95.0¢
DeepSeek announces a training pause by October 31?Победа
No$4 @ 88.0¢
ByteDance announces a training pause by October 31?Победа
No$4 @ 89.0¢
Moonshot announces a training pause by October 31?Победа
No$9 @ 88.5¢
Z.ai announces a training pause by October 31?Победа
No$4 @ 89.0¢
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?Победа
Yes$3 @ 11.7¢
Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?Поражение
Yes$0 @ 1.0¢
Will Baidu have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?Поражение
Yes$0 @ 0.4¢
Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?Победа
Yes$1 @ 2.9¢
Will OpenAI be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026?Победа
Yes$1 @ 5.0¢
Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?Поражение
Yes$1 @ 5.0¢
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?Поражение
Yes$9 @ 47.0¢
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Поражение
Yes$0 @ 0.9¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 23?Поражение
Yes$1 @ 3.7¢
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 9?Поражение
Yes$15 @ 30.6¢
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 2?Поражение
Yes$28 @ 32.5¢
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 23?Поражение
No$9 @ 76.0¢
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on May 26?Поражение
Yes$3 @ 20.4¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on July 6?Поражение
Yes$5 @ 22.1¢
Will the next Grok model (4.7+) debut at a score of at least 1450 by June 30, 2027?Поражение
Yes$8 @ 41.5¢
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on May 24?Победа
Yes$212 @ 87.6¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on July 12?Победа
Yes$23 @ 31.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on April 17?Победа
No$12 @ 88.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on July 3?Поражение
Yes$13 @ 32.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on July 11?Победа
Yes$3 @ 14.3¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on July 4?Победа
Yes$18 @ 54.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on July 5?Поражение
Yes$10 @ 50.5¢
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 9?Поражение
Yes$35 @ 42.7¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 24?Победа
Yes$18 @ 14.8¢
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 2?Победа
Yes$15 @ 29.7¢
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 8?Победа
No$7 @ 70.5¢
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on May 31?Поражение
Yes$8 @ 7.4¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 19?Победа
Yes$84 @ 40.2¢
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 35°C on April 24?Поражение
No$45 @ 76.2¢
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on May 26?Победа
Yes$12 @ 39.3¢
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on July 11?Поражение
Yes$15 @ 28.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on May 13?Победа
Yes$5 @ 88.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 10?Поражение
Yes$0 @ 2.2¢
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on May 26?Поражение
Yes$1 @ 1.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on July 13?Поражение
Yes$1 @ 14.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on May 25?Поражение
Yes$2 @ 20.5¢
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on May 25?Победа
No$12 @ 76.7¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026?Поражение
Yes$3 @ 32.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on May 13?Поражение
Yes$1 @ 0.1¢
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 2?Поражение
Yes$9 @ 25.5¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on July 26?Поражение
Yes$4 @ 20.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on July 2?Поражение
Yes$0 @ 1.0¢

Недавние сделки

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Текущие позиции

Рынок	Сфера	Исход	Размер	Вход
Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $100B by December 31?	Технологии	No	$33	98.4¢
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Бизнес	Yes	$15	75.0¢
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?	Технологии	Yes	$14	93.8¢
Will Mina the Hollower win Best Game Direction at the 2026 Game Awards?	Культура	No	$10	99.0¢
AI data center in space by December 31, 2026?	Технологии	No	$10	98.1¢
Will Waymo operate in fewer than 12 cities on December 31 2026?	Технологии	Yes	$10	60.5¢
Will OpenAI announce a ring in 2026?	Технологии	No	$9	93.0¢
Will OpenAI announce a watch in 2026?	Технологии	No	$9	92.0¢
Will Waymo operate in 12-15 cities on December 31 2026?	Технологии	Yes	$9	34.3¢
Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026?	Политика	No	$9	89.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Политика	No	$9	87.0¢
Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026?	Бизнес	Yes	$8	76.0¢
Will the Ornn B200 Index be at least $7.00 on December 31, 2026?	Технологии	Yes	$6	64.0¢
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	Политика	No	$5	96.9¢
Frontier AI lab pulls a model over safety concerns in 2026?	Технологии	Yes	$5	22.5¢
Will Andrew Garfield win Best Supporting Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?	Культура	Yes	$2	27.0¢
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $6.50 and $7.00 on December 31, 2026?	Технологии	Yes	$1	12.0¢
Will Waymo operate in 16-19 cities on December 31 2026?	Технологии	Yes	$1	4.4¢
Will Control Resonant win Best Game Direction at the 2026 Game Awards?	Культура	Yes	$0	7.0¢

Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $100B by December 31?Технологии
No$33 @ 98.4¢
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?Бизнес
Yes$15 @ 75.0¢
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?Технологии
Yes$14 @ 93.8¢
Will Mina the Hollower win Best Game Direction at the 2026 Game Awards?Культура
No$10 @ 99.0¢
AI data center in space by December 31, 2026?Технологии
No$10 @ 98.1¢
Will Waymo operate in fewer than 12 cities on December 31 2026?Технологии
Yes$10 @ 60.5¢
Will OpenAI announce a ring in 2026?Технологии
No$9 @ 93.0¢
Will OpenAI announce a watch in 2026?Технологии
No$9 @ 92.0¢
Will Waymo operate in 12-15 cities on December 31 2026?Технологии
Yes$9 @ 34.3¢
Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026?Политика
No$9 @ 89.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Политика
No$9 @ 87.0¢
Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026?Бизнес
Yes$8 @ 76.0¢
Will the Ornn B200 Index be at least $7.00 on December 31, 2026?Технологии
Yes$6 @ 64.0¢
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?Политика
No$5 @ 96.9¢
Frontier AI lab pulls a model over safety concerns in 2026?Технологии
Yes$5 @ 22.5¢
Will Andrew Garfield win Best Supporting Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?Культура
Yes$2 @ 27.0¢
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $6.50 and $7.00 on December 31, 2026?Технологии
Yes$1 @ 12.0¢
Will Waymo operate in 16-19 cities on December 31 2026?Технологии
Yes$1 @ 4.4¢
Will Control Resonant win Best Game Direction at the 2026 Game Awards?Культура
Yes$0 @ 7.0¢