0x8204…56ea

Прибыльный

Эдж

+15.8pp

ROI

+4%

Доля побед

51% @ 34.9¢

Brier

0.291

Сделок

617

Ср. размер

$224

Специализация по сферам

Сфера	Попадания	ROI	Ставки
Other	47% (23/49)	+18%	49
Политика	29% (4/14)	-73%	14
Геополитика	80% (4/5)	-19%	5

Other49 ставки
Попадания
47% (23/49)
ROI
+18%
Политика14 ставки
Попадания
29% (4/14)
ROI
-73%
Геополитика5 ставки
Попадания
80% (4/5)
ROI
-19%

История результатов

46% попаданий · 31/68

Рынок	Исход	Размер	Вход	Итог
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?	Yes	$2	6.7¢	Поражение
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by January 31?	No	$87	87.0¢	Победа
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$555	37.0¢	Поражение
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	No	$660	66.0¢	Победа
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	No	$75	75.0¢	Победа
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	Yes	$540	54.0¢	Поражение
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series?	Yes	$1	16.9¢	Поражение
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?	Yes	$4.3k	53.8¢	Поражение
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	Yes	$1.1k	37.0¢	Победа
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	Yes	$500	20.0¢	Победа
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?	Yes	$450	9.0¢	Поражение
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?	No	$7.4k	74.4¢	Победа
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?	Yes	$1.0k	10.0¢	Поражение
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	No	$35	74.0¢	Победа
US x Venezuela military engagement by January 15, 2026?	Yes	$1.5k	9.3¢	Победа
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?	Yes	$3.4k	3.4¢	Поражение
US forces in Venezuela again by January 31, 2026?	Yes	$160	16.0¢	Поражение
US x Iran meeting by February 6, 2026?	Yes	$267	89.0¢	Победа
US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026?	No	$1.4k	83.0¢	Победа
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	No	$1.7k	85.0¢	Победа
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31?	Yes	$7.7k	29.8¢	Поражение
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?	Yes	$100	20.0¢	Поражение
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	No	$2.6k	52.0¢	Поражение
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?	No	$1.7k	87.0¢	Победа
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	$2.1k	52.0¢	Поражение
US strike on Mexico by March 31?	Yes	$160	16.0¢	Поражение
Maduro out by January 31, 2026?	Yes	$1.9k	10.0¢	Победа
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?	Yes	$206	6.9¢	Поражение
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?	Yes	$1.5k	23.9¢	Победа
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?	Yes	$6.6k	11.6¢	Поражение
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?	Yes	$2.3k	46.0¢	Поражение
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?	No	$5.2k	85.2¢	Победа
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?	No	$2.6k	75.9¢	Поражение
Will Austria join NATO by December 31?	Yes	$2	2.8¢	Поражение
US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026?	Yes	$9.0k	86.6¢	Победа
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?	Yes	$3.2k	63.0¢	Победа
Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	$810	81.0¢	Победа
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by March 31, 2026?	Yes	$58	5.8¢	Поражение
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	$131	27.0¢	Поражение
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	$2.2k	74.0¢	Победа
Will Witkoff meet with Iranian officials by February 28?	Yes	$900	90.0¢	Победа
Steelers vs. Bengals	Bengals	$143	69.5¢	Победа
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	Yes	$4.3k	37.2¢	Победа
Will US or Israel strike Iran by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$215	51.0¢	Победа
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	No	$690	69.0¢	Победа
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?	No	$800	80.0¢	Победа
Maduro out by November 30, 2025?	Yes	$3.9k	3.9¢	Поражение
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?	Yes	$1.4k	48.0¢	Победа
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?	No	$9.5k	63.7¢	Победа
Maduro out in 2025?	Yes	$12.6k	14.6¢	Поражение

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?Поражение
Yes$2 @ 6.7¢
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by January 31?Победа
No$87 @ 87.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Поражение
Yes$555 @ 37.0¢
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Победа
No$660 @ 66.0¢
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?Победа
No$75 @ 75.0¢
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?Поражение
Yes$540 @ 54.0¢
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series?Поражение
Yes$1 @ 16.9¢
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?Поражение
Yes$4.3k @ 53.8¢
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Победа
Yes$1.1k @ 37.0¢
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Победа
Yes$500 @ 20.0¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?Поражение
Yes$450 @ 9.0¢
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?Победа
No$7.4k @ 74.4¢
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?Поражение
Yes$1.0k @ 10.0¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Победа
No$35 @ 74.0¢
US x Venezuela military engagement by January 15, 2026?Победа
Yes$1.5k @ 9.3¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?Поражение
Yes$3.4k @ 3.4¢
US forces in Venezuela again by January 31, 2026?Поражение
Yes$160 @ 16.0¢
US x Iran meeting by February 6, 2026?Победа
Yes$267 @ 89.0¢
US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026?Победа
No$1.4k @ 83.0¢
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?Победа
No$1.7k @ 85.0¢
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31?Поражение
Yes$7.7k @ 29.8¢
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?Поражение
Yes$100 @ 20.0¢
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Поражение
No$2.6k @ 52.0¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?Победа
No$1.7k @ 87.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Поражение
Yes$2.1k @ 52.0¢
US strike on Mexico by March 31?Поражение
Yes$160 @ 16.0¢
Maduro out by January 31, 2026?Победа
Yes$1.9k @ 10.0¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?Поражение
Yes$206 @ 6.9¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?Победа
Yes$1.5k @ 23.9¢
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?Поражение
Yes$6.6k @ 11.6¢
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?Поражение
Yes$2.3k @ 46.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?Победа
No$5.2k @ 85.2¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?Поражение
No$2.6k @ 75.9¢
Will Austria join NATO by December 31?Поражение
Yes$2 @ 2.8¢
US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026?Победа
Yes$9.0k @ 86.6¢
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?Победа
Yes$3.2k @ 63.0¢
Netanyahu out by June 30?Победа
No$810 @ 81.0¢
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by March 31, 2026?Поражение
Yes$58 @ 5.8¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Поражение
Yes$131 @ 27.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Победа
No$2.2k @ 74.0¢
Will Witkoff meet with Iranian officials by February 28?Победа
Yes$900 @ 90.0¢
Steelers vs. BengalsПобеда
Bengals$143 @ 69.5¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?Победа
Yes$4.3k @ 37.2¢
Will US or Israel strike Iran by June 30, 2026?Победа
Yes$215 @ 51.0¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?Победа
No$690 @ 69.0¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?Победа
No$800 @ 80.0¢
Maduro out by November 30, 2025?Поражение
Yes$3.9k @ 3.9¢
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?Победа
Yes$1.4k @ 48.0¢
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?Победа
No$9.5k @ 63.7¢
Maduro out in 2025?Поражение
Yes$12.6k @ 14.6¢

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Текущие позиции

Рынок	Сфера	Исход	Размер	Вход
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Геополитика	No	$4.9k	97.8¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Политика	No	$1.7k	86.0¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Политика	Yes	$970	15.2¢
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Политика	Yes	$360	1.4¢
Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	Политика	Yes	$360	72.0¢
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Политика	Yes	$329	2.2¢
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Политика	Yes	$325	1.3¢
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?	Политика	Yes	$325	32.5¢
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Политика	No	$320	64.0¢
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Политика	Yes	$181	1.3¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Геополитика	Yes	$158	63.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?	Крипто	No	$91	91.0¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Политика	Yes	$82	8.2¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Геополитика	Yes	$80	80.0¢
SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by December 31, 2026?	Политика	Yes	$70	70.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Политика	Yes	$59	59.4¢
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026?	Политика	No	$21	83.0¢

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?Геополитика
No$4.9k @ 97.8¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Политика
No$1.7k @ 86.0¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Политика
Yes$970 @ 15.2¢
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Политика
Yes$360 @ 1.4¢
Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?Политика
Yes$360 @ 72.0¢
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Политика
Yes$329 @ 2.2¢
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Политика
Yes$325 @ 1.3¢
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?Политика
Yes$325 @ 32.5¢
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Политика
No$320 @ 64.0¢
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Политика
Yes$181 @ 1.3¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Геополитика
Yes$158 @ 63.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?Крипто
No$91 @ 91.0¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Политика
Yes$82 @ 8.2¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Геополитика
Yes$80 @ 80.0¢
SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by December 31, 2026?Политика
Yes$70 @ 70.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Политика
Yes$59 @ 59.4¢
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026?Политика
No$21 @ 83.0¢