0x7f6d…f6f6

Профи

Эдж

+12.6pp

ROI

+29%

Доля побед

62% @ 48.9¢

Brier

0.203

Сделок

273

Ср. размер

$29

Специализация по сферам

Сфера	Попадания	ROI	Ставки
Other	50% (34/68)	+18%	68
Политика	60% (21/35)	+40%	35
Геополитика	33% (1/3)	-85%	3
Спорт	50% (1/2)	+176%	2
Технологии	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other68 ставки
Попадания
50% (34/68)
ROI
+18%
Политика35 ставки
Попадания
60% (21/35)
ROI
+40%
Геополитика3 ставки
Попадания
33% (1/3)
ROI
-85%
Спорт2 ставки
Попадания
50% (1/2)
ROI
+176%
Технологии1 ставки
Попадания
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

История результатов

52% попаданий · 57/109

Рынок	Исход	Размер	Вход	Итог
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	No	$326	52.9¢	Победа
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	Yes	$80	45.5¢	Поражение
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 27?	Yes	$16	77.0¢	Победа
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by August 31, 2026?	No	$4	42.0¢	Поражение
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?	No	$60	75.0¢	Победа
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	No	$77	60.0¢	Поражение
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?	No	$4	15.7¢	Поражение
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?	No	$117	78.3¢	Победа
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	No	$32	9.2¢	Поражение
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?	No	$100	76.4¢	Победа
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	No	$50	62.0¢	Поражение
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	Yes	$1	31.8¢	Победа
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?	No	$48	79.0¢	Победа
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?	No	$118	71.1¢	Победа
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?	Yes	$31	19.9¢	Поражение
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?	Yes	$122	70.8¢	Победа
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?	No	$3	63.0¢	Победа
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	No	$11	85.0¢	Победа
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	$106	77.0¢	Победа
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	$40	24.0¢	Поражение
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	No	$60	75.0¢	Победа
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	No	$218	36.2¢	Поражение
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	Yes	$361	39.2¢	Победа
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$32	38.9¢	Поражение
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?	No	$60	69.6¢	Победа
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?	Yes	$39	28.0¢	Поражение
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?	No	$26	84.7¢	Победа
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?	Yes	$95	30.0¢	Поражение
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?	No	$101	64.6¢	Победа
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?	Yes	$50	14.4¢	Поражение
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	No	$207	78.1¢	Поражение
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	Yes	$273	38.1¢	Победа
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$15	68.2¢	Победа
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$25	8.7¢	Поражение
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$4	26.0¢	Поражение
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?	Yes	$1	18.0¢	Поражение
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	$50	12.0¢	Поражение
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$341	42.7¢	Победа
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?	No	$34	48.7¢	Поражение
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$10	5.0¢	Поражение
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?	No	$171	78.0¢	Победа
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?	Yes	$81	10.9¢	Поражение
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?	No	$145	52.4¢	Поражение
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?	Yes	$100	70.6¢	Победа
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	No	$25	59.9¢	Поражение
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?	Yes	$92	54.5¢	Победа
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	$257	17.3¢	Поражение
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$30	45.2¢	Победа
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?	No	$28	58.4¢	Победа
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?	Yes	$61	29.6¢	Поражение

Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?Победа
No$326 @ 52.9¢
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?Поражение
Yes$80 @ 45.5¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 27?Победа
Yes$16 @ 77.0¢
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by August 31, 2026?Поражение
No$4 @ 42.0¢
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?Победа
No$60 @ 75.0¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Поражение
No$77 @ 60.0¢
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?Поражение
No$4 @ 15.7¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?Победа
No$117 @ 78.3¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Поражение
No$32 @ 9.2¢
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?Победа
No$100 @ 76.4¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Поражение
No$50 @ 62.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Победа
Yes$1 @ 31.8¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?Победа
No$48 @ 79.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?Победа
No$118 @ 71.1¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?Поражение
Yes$31 @ 19.9¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?Победа
Yes$122 @ 70.8¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?Победа
No$3 @ 63.0¢
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?Победа
No$11 @ 85.0¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?Победа
No$106 @ 77.0¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?Поражение
Yes$40 @ 24.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?Победа
No$60 @ 75.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?Поражение
No$218 @ 36.2¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?Победа
Yes$361 @ 39.2¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Поражение
Yes$32 @ 38.9¢
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?Победа
No$60 @ 69.6¢
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?Поражение
Yes$39 @ 28.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?Победа
No$26 @ 84.7¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?Поражение
Yes$95 @ 30.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?Победа
No$101 @ 64.6¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?Поражение
Yes$50 @ 14.4¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Поражение
No$207 @ 78.1¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Победа
Yes$273 @ 38.1¢
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?Победа
Yes$15 @ 68.2¢
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Поражение
Yes$25 @ 8.7¢
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?Поражение
Yes$4 @ 26.0¢
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?Поражение
Yes$1 @ 18.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Поражение
No$50 @ 12.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Победа
Yes$341 @ 42.7¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?Поражение
No$34 @ 48.7¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026?Поражение
Yes$10 @ 5.0¢
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?Победа
No$171 @ 78.0¢
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?Поражение
Yes$81 @ 10.9¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?Поражение
No$145 @ 52.4¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?Победа
Yes$100 @ 70.6¢
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?Поражение
No$25 @ 59.9¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?Победа
Yes$92 @ 54.5¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?Поражение
No$257 @ 17.3¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?Победа
Yes$30 @ 45.2¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?Победа
No$28 @ 58.4¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?Поражение
Yes$61 @ 29.6¢

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Текущие позиции

Рынок	Сфера	Исход	Размер	Вход
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?	—	Yes	$301	84.7¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	—	No	$240	79.7¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	—	No	$240	38.0¢
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	—	No	$223	82.1¢
Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?	—	No	$187	85.3¢
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?	—	No	$165	84.3¢
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?	Политика	No	$149	76.5¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	—	Yes	$120	72.1¢
Cuban regime falls in 2026?	Политика	No	$96	86.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?	—	No	$90	79.0¢
Israel closes its airspace by September 30?	Политика	No	$86	45.0¢
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	Политика	Yes	$59	71.0¢
Will Gustavo Petro be charged in the US by December 31?	Геополитика	No	$52	68.0¢
Will Deltan Dallagnol win the most votes in the 2026 Paraná Senate election?	—	No	$47	65.0¢
Iran full airspace closure by December 31?	—	No	$46	76.1¢
Houthis seize an oil tanker by September 30, 2026?	—	No	$43	84.9¢
Will Trump visit Greenland by October 31?	Политика	No	$40	88.0¢
Will United Russia win between 325 and 339 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Политика	Yes	$40	41.0¢
Will Scott Jennings be the next White House Press Secretary?	—	No	$40	80.0¢
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	—	Yes	$40	51.6¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Политика	Yes	$39	55.0¢
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?	—	Yes	$39	35.0¢
Will Oborevwori Sheriff Francis Orohwedor win the 2027 Delta State gubernatorial election?	—	Yes	$39	84.2¢
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?	Политика	No	$35	34.2¢
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	—	No	$34	56.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by September 30, 2026?	—	No	$32	82.0¢
Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?	—	Yes	$31	36.0¢
Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?	—	No	$28	45.0¢
Iran full airspace closure by September 30?	—	No	$27	86.0¢
US x Cuba economic deal by December 31, 2026?	Политика	Yes	$25	44.0¢

Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?—
Yes$301 @ 84.7¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?—
No$240 @ 79.7¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?—
No$240 @ 38.0¢
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?—
No$223 @ 82.1¢
Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?—
No$187 @ 85.3¢
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?—
No$165 @ 84.3¢
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?Политика
No$149 @ 76.5¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?—
Yes$120 @ 72.1¢
Cuban regime falls in 2026?Политика
No$96 @ 86.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?—
No$90 @ 79.0¢
Israel closes its airspace by September 30?Политика
No$86 @ 45.0¢
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?Политика
Yes$59 @ 71.0¢
Will Gustavo Petro be charged in the US by December 31?Геополитика
No$52 @ 68.0¢
Will Deltan Dallagnol win the most votes in the 2026 Paraná Senate election?—
No$47 @ 65.0¢
Iran full airspace closure by December 31?—
No$46 @ 76.1¢
Houthis seize an oil tanker by September 30, 2026?—
No$43 @ 84.9¢
Will Trump visit Greenland by October 31?Политика
No$40 @ 88.0¢
Will United Russia win between 325 and 339 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?Политика
Yes$40 @ 41.0¢
Will Scott Jennings be the next White House Press Secretary?—
No$40 @ 80.0¢
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?—
Yes$40 @ 51.6¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Политика
Yes$39 @ 55.0¢
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?—
Yes$39 @ 35.0¢
Will Oborevwori Sheriff Francis Orohwedor win the 2027 Delta State gubernatorial election?—
Yes$39 @ 84.2¢
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?Политика
No$35 @ 34.2¢
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?—
No$34 @ 56.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by September 30, 2026?—
No$32 @ 82.0¢
Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?—
Yes$31 @ 36.0¢
Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?—
No$28 @ 45.0¢
Iran full airspace closure by September 30?—
No$27 @ 86.0¢
US x Cuba economic deal by December 31, 2026?Политика
Yes$25 @ 44.0¢