0x7a16…518b

Профи

Эдж

+12.7pp

ROI

+32%

Доля побед

56% @ 43.8¢

Brier

0.200

Сделок

262

Ср. размер

$11

Динамика ROI

Специализация по сферам

Сфера	Попадания	ROI	Ставки
Other	56% (65/116)	+29%	116
Политика	31% (5/16)	+44%	16
Экономика	33% (2/6)	-53%	6
Геополитика	0% (0/3)	-100%	3

Other116 ставки
Попадания
56% (65/116)
ROI
+29%
Политика16 ставки
Попадания
31% (5/16)
ROI
+44%
Экономика6 ставки
Попадания
33% (2/6)
ROI
-53%
Геополитика3 ставки
Попадания
0% (0/3)
ROI
-100%

История результатов

51% попаданий · 72/141

Рынок	Исход	Размер	Вход	Итог
Scholz out as chancellor of Germany in 2024?	No	$10	88.4¢	Победа
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting?	Yes	$10	22.7¢	Поражение
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Apr)?	Yes	$34	63.9¢	Победа
Will the U.K.'s monthly inflation be ≥0.3% in December?	Yes	$61	68.4¢	Победа
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after March 2026 meeting?	Yes	$30	62.6¢	Победа
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia increase the target for the cash rate after the February Meeting?	Yes	$40	36.6¢	Победа
Will Angeliki Stogia - Labour win the Gorton and Denton by-election?	Yes	$5	11.0¢	Поражение
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Yes	$86	39.1¢	Поражение
Will Mexico GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 1.0% and 1.5%?	Yes	$10	42.1¢	Поражение
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	$10	59.7¢	Победа
Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting?	Yes	$31	20.1¢	Поражение
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia make no change to the target for the cash rate after the May Meeting?	Yes	$1	7.1¢	Поражение
Will Canada’s January 2026 unemployment rate be 6.8%?	No	$10	50.0¢	Победа
Will MrBeast reach 450 million subscribers in 2025?	No	$1	0.1¢	Поражение
Greens win over 15% of vote in German election?	Yes	$15	31.7¢	Поражение
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	$15	32.0¢	Поражение
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$20	35.7¢	Победа
Will the US add more than 125k jobs in January?	Yes	$1	10.9¢	Победа
Will the US add between 25k and 50k jobs in February?	Yes	$8	17.0¢	Поражение
Will Mark Carney be the next leader of the Canadian Liberal Party?	No	$13	50.0¢	Поражение
ECB rate hike in 2026?	Yes	$10	56.0¢	Победа
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$30	52.3¢	Победа
Will the Green Party win at least 600 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	No	$5	33.0¢	Победа
Will Canada's annual inflation increase by 2.3% in December?	Yes	$4	28.6¢	Поражение
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia increase the target for the cash rate after the May Meeting?	Yes	$29	56.2¢	Победа
French election called by December 31?	Yes	$10	31.0¢	Поражение
Will Josh Safdie win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	$1	6.9¢	Поражение
Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the April meeting?	Yes	$14	70.0¢	Победа
Will annual inflation increase by between 30% and 32.9% in December?	Yes	$10	54.0¢	Победа
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?	Yes	$25	73.2¢	Победа
Will UK GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 0.3% and 0.6%?	Yes	$30	20.3¢	Поражение
Will the U.K.'s annual inflation increase by 3.3% in December?	Yes	$7	23.8¢	Поражение
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil's January 2026 meeting?	Yes	$102	76.8¢	Победа
Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$73	30.3¢	Победа
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in December?	Yes	$6	23.4¢	Поражение
Will the US lose jobs in January?	Yes	$5	16.9¢	Поражение
Will Canada's annual inflation increase by 2.1% in December?	No	$25	70.6¢	Победа
Will the South African Reserve Bank make no change to the repo rate after the September meeting?	Yes	$147	37.7¢	Поражение
Will the Bank of Mexico announce no change at the March meeting?	Yes	$94	36.1¢	Поражение
Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?	Yes	$7	43.0¢	Победа
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	No	$10	39.0¢	Победа
Will UK GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 0% and 0.5%?	No	$14	77.3¢	Победа
Will UK GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 0% and 0.5%?	Yes	$2	65.0¢	Поражение
Brazil’s 12-month inflation below 5.50% for December 2025?	Yes	$15	49.0¢	Победа
Will "It Was Just an Accident" win Best Motion Picture - Non-English Language at the 83rd Golden Globes?	Yes	$1	31.0¢	Поражение
Will the Liberal Democratic Party win 310 or more seats in the 2026 Japanese snap general election?	Yes	$5	16.0¢	Победа
Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election?	Yes	$11	65.0¢	Победа
Will Count Binface win 20–30% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?	Yes	$15	41.0¢	Победа
Will Canada's annual inflation increase by ≤2.0% in December?	No	$30	73.4¢	Победа
Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in March?	Yes	$5	37.5¢	Поражение

Scholz out as chancellor of Germany in 2024?Победа
No$10 @ 88.4¢
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting?Поражение
Yes$10 @ 22.7¢
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Apr)?Победа
Yes$34 @ 63.9¢
Will the U.K.'s monthly inflation be ≥0.3% in December?Победа
Yes$61 @ 68.4¢
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after March 2026 meeting?Победа
Yes$30 @ 62.6¢
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia increase the target for the cash rate after the February Meeting?Победа
Yes$40 @ 36.6¢
Will Angeliki Stogia - Labour win the Gorton and Denton by-election?Поражение
Yes$5 @ 11.0¢
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Поражение
Yes$86 @ 39.1¢
Will Mexico GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 1.0% and 1.5%?Поражение
Yes$10 @ 42.1¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Победа
Yes$10 @ 59.7¢
Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting?Поражение
Yes$31 @ 20.1¢
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia make no change to the target for the cash rate after the May Meeting?Поражение
Yes$1 @ 7.1¢
Will Canada’s January 2026 unemployment rate be 6.8%?Победа
No$10 @ 50.0¢
Will MrBeast reach 450 million subscribers in 2025?Поражение
No$1 @ 0.1¢
Greens win over 15% of vote in German election? Поражение
Yes$15 @ 31.7¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Поражение
Yes$15 @ 32.0¢
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?Победа
Yes$20 @ 35.7¢
Will the US add more than 125k jobs in January?Победа
Yes$1 @ 10.9¢
Will the US add between 25k and 50k jobs in February?Поражение
Yes$8 @ 17.0¢
Will Mark Carney be the next leader of the Canadian Liberal Party?Поражение
No$13 @ 50.0¢
ECB rate hike in 2026?Победа
Yes$10 @ 56.0¢
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?Победа
Yes$30 @ 52.3¢
Will the Green Party win at least 600 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?Победа
No$5 @ 33.0¢
Will Canada's annual inflation increase by 2.3% in December?Поражение
Yes$4 @ 28.6¢
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia increase the target for the cash rate after the May Meeting?Победа
Yes$29 @ 56.2¢
French election called by December 31?Поражение
Yes$10 @ 31.0¢
Will Josh Safdie win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?Поражение
Yes$1 @ 6.9¢
Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the April meeting?Победа
Yes$14 @ 70.0¢
Will annual inflation increase by between 30% and 32.9% in December?Победа
Yes$10 @ 54.0¢
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?Победа
Yes$25 @ 73.2¢
Will UK GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 0.3% and 0.6%?Поражение
Yes$30 @ 20.3¢
Will the U.K.'s annual inflation increase by 3.3% in December?Поражение
Yes$7 @ 23.8¢
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil's January 2026 meeting?Победа
Yes$102 @ 76.8¢
Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?Победа
Yes$73 @ 30.3¢
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in December?Поражение
Yes$6 @ 23.4¢
Will the US lose jobs in January?Поражение
Yes$5 @ 16.9¢
Will Canada's annual inflation increase by 2.1% in December?Победа
No$25 @ 70.6¢
Will the South African Reserve Bank make no change to the repo rate after the September meeting?Поражение
Yes$147 @ 37.7¢
Will the Bank of Mexico announce no change at the March meeting?Поражение
Yes$94 @ 36.1¢
Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?Победа
Yes$7 @ 43.0¢
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Победа
No$10 @ 39.0¢
Will UK GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 0% and 0.5%?Победа
No$14 @ 77.3¢
Will UK GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 0% and 0.5%?Поражение
Yes$2 @ 65.0¢
Brazil’s 12-month inflation below 5.50% for December 2025?Победа
Yes$15 @ 49.0¢
Will "It Was Just an Accident" win Best Motion Picture - Non-English Language at the 83rd Golden Globes?Поражение
Yes$1 @ 31.0¢
Will the Liberal Democratic Party win 310 or more seats in the 2026 Japanese snap general election?Победа
Yes$5 @ 16.0¢
Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election?Победа
Yes$11 @ 65.0¢
Will Count Binface win 20–30% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?Победа
Yes$15 @ 41.0¢
Will Canada's annual inflation increase by ≤2.0% in December?Победа
No$30 @ 73.4¢
Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in March?Поражение
Yes$5 @ 37.5¢

Недавние сделки

в реальном времени с Polymarket · нажмите на столбец для сортировки

Загрузка недавних сделок…

Текущие позиции

Рынок	Сфера	Исход	Размер	Вход
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the December meeting?	Экономика	Yes	$157	53.5¢
Will UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.6% and 0.7%?	Политика	Yes	$143	23.2¢
Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?	Экономика	Yes	$115	33.6¢
Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting?	Геополитика	Yes	$100	44.9¢

Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the December meeting?Экономика
Yes$157 @ 53.5¢
Will UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.6% and 0.7%?Политика
Yes$143 @ 23.2¢
Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?Экономика
Yes$115 @ 33.6¢
Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting?Геополитика
Yes$100 @ 44.9¢