0x71ab…f015

Эдж

-14.5pp

ROI

-2%

Доля побед

46% @ 61.0¢

Brier

0.266

Сделок

Ср. размер

$236

Динамика ROI

Специализация по сферам

Сфера	Попадания	ROI	Ставки
Other	58% (26/45)	+1%	45
Политика	65% (17/26)	+36%	26
Геополитика	50% (9/18)	+14%	18
Крипто	33% (1/3)	-23%	3
Спорт	50% (1/2)	+205%	2
Экономика	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other45 ставки
Попадания
58% (26/45)
ROI
+1%
Политика26 ставки
Попадания
65% (17/26)
ROI
+36%
Геополитика18 ставки
Попадания
50% (9/18)
ROI
+14%
Крипто3 ставки
Попадания
33% (1/3)
ROI
-23%
Спорт2 ставки
Попадания
50% (1/2)
ROI
+205%
Экономика1 ставки
Попадания
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

История результатов

57% попаданий · 54/95

Рынок	Исход	Размер	Вход	Итог
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?	No	$174	34.8¢	Победа
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$512	76.6¢	Поражение
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by July 31?	No	$6	89.0¢	Победа
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in July?	No	$9	90.0¢	Победа
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July?	Yes	$27	53.0¢	Поражение
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?	No	$1	5.0¢	Поражение
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.15T by July 31?	No	$1	10.0¢	Победа
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?	Yes	$305	61.0¢	Поражение
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?	No	$273	91.0¢	Поражение
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in July?	No	$110	96.0¢	Победа
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in July?	Yes	$1	14.0¢	Поражение
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in July?	No	$97	96.5¢	Победа
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?	No	$1.2k	52.6¢	Победа
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	No	$2.9k	72.6¢	Поражение
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	No	$355	71.0¢	Поражение
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	Yes	$300	15.0¢	Победа
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	No	$110	22.0¢	Поражение
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?	Yes	$158	21.0¢	Поражение
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?	No	$1.3k	88.8¢	Победа
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 18, 2026?	Yes	$255	85.0¢	Победа
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 15?	No	$11	83.1¢	Победа
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$70	7.2¢	Поражение
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?	No	$239	79.5¢	Победа
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?	No	$1.5k	77.0¢	Победа
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$182	84.7¢	Поражение
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	$3.9k	80.4¢	Победа
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	$38	57.0¢	Победа
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $65 on the final trading day of June 2026?	Yes	$12	87.2¢	Победа
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June?	No	$108	69.9¢	Победа
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June?	No	$153	69.0¢	Победа
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of June?	Yes	$54	4.8¢	Поражение
Will Silver (SI) settle at >$115 in June?	No	$239	86.0¢	Победа
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?	No	$2.4k	51.5¢	Победа
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?	No	$114	97.0¢	Победа
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June?	No	$1.3k	94.3¢	Победа
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?	Yes	$70	7.1¢	Поражение
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?	No	$2.0k	92.9¢	Победа
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	No	$457	91.4¢	Победа
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$485	14.3¢	Поражение
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	$1.8k	97.2¢	Победа
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?	No	$0	6.0¢	Поражение
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$933	93.0¢	Победа
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$97	18.0¢	Поражение
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June?	Yes	$153	36.1¢	Поражение
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June?	No	$27	8.8¢	Победа
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	No	$15.0k	86.5¢	Победа
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	$10.6k	40.4¢	Победа
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?	No	$80	20.0¢	Победа
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?	Yes	$9	2.8¢	Поражение
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?	No	$275	55.0¢	Победа

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?Победа
No$174 @ 34.8¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?Поражение
Yes$512 @ 76.6¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by July 31?Победа
No$6 @ 89.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in July?Победа
No$9 @ 90.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July?Поражение
Yes$27 @ 53.0¢
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?Поражение
No$1 @ 5.0¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.15T by July 31?Победа
No$1 @ 10.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?Поражение
Yes$305 @ 61.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?Поражение
No$273 @ 91.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in July?Победа
No$110 @ 96.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in July?Поражение
Yes$1 @ 14.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in July?Победа
No$97 @ 96.5¢
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?Победа
No$1.2k @ 52.6¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Поражение
No$2.9k @ 72.6¢
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?Поражение
No$355 @ 71.0¢
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?Победа
Yes$300 @ 15.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Поражение
No$110 @ 22.0¢
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?Поражение
Yes$158 @ 21.0¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?Победа
No$1.3k @ 88.8¢
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 18, 2026?Победа
Yes$255 @ 85.0¢
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 15?Победа
No$11 @ 83.1¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?Поражение
Yes$70 @ 7.2¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?Победа
No$239 @ 79.5¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?Победа
No$1.5k @ 77.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?Поражение
Yes$182 @ 84.7¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Победа
No$3.9k @ 80.4¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Победа
No$38 @ 57.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $65 on the final trading day of June 2026?Победа
Yes$12 @ 87.2¢
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June?Победа
No$108 @ 69.9¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June?Победа
No$153 @ 69.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of June?Поражение
Yes$54 @ 4.8¢
Will Silver (SI) settle at >$115 in June?Победа
No$239 @ 86.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?Победа
No$2.4k @ 51.5¢
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?Победа
No$114 @ 97.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June?Победа
No$1.3k @ 94.3¢
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?Поражение
Yes$70 @ 7.1¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?Победа
No$2.0k @ 92.9¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Победа
No$457 @ 91.4¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?Поражение
Yes$485 @ 14.3¢
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Победа
No$1.8k @ 97.2¢
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Поражение
No$0 @ 6.0¢
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Победа
Yes$933 @ 93.0¢
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Поражение
Yes$97 @ 18.0¢
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June?Поражение
Yes$153 @ 36.1¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June?Победа
No$27 @ 8.8¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?Победа
No$15.0k @ 86.5¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Победа
No$10.6k @ 40.4¢
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?Победа
No$80 @ 20.0¢
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?Поражение
Yes$9 @ 2.8¢
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?Победа
No$275 @ 55.0¢

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Текущие позиции

Рынок	Сфера	Исход	Размер	Вход
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Политика	No	$9.2k	75.7¢
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?	Политика	No	$4.9k	85.5¢
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	Геополитика	No	$4.7k	70.2¢
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	Геополитика	No	$4.2k	76.5¢
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Политика	No	$1.0k	73.7¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?	Геополитика	No	$800	53.3¢
Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?	Крипто	Yes	$488	15.6¢
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Other	No	$390	78.0¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?	Технологии	Yes	$390	39.0¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?	Технологии	Yes	$252	8.7¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?	Технологии	No	$210	21.0¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026?	Геополитика	Yes	$57	18.9¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?	Геополитика	Yes	$17	26.0¢

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?Политика
No$9.2k @ 75.7¢
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?Политика
No$4.9k @ 85.5¢
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?Геополитика
No$4.7k @ 70.2¢
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?Геополитика
No$4.2k @ 76.5¢
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?Политика
No$1.0k @ 73.7¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?Геополитика
No$800 @ 53.3¢
Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?Крипто
Yes$488 @ 15.6¢
Will GameStop acquire eBay?Other
No$390 @ 78.0¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?Технологии
Yes$390 @ 39.0¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?Технологии
Yes$252 @ 8.7¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?Технологии
No$210 @ 21.0¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026?Геополитика
Yes$57 @ 18.9¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?Геополитика
Yes$17 @ 26.0¢