0x5e73…6697

Профи

Эдж

+10.7pp

ROI

+29%

Доля побед

66% @ 55.6¢

Brier

0.178

Сделок

742

Ср. размер

$168

Специализация по сферам

Сфера	Попадания	ROI	Ставки
Политика	43% (20/47)	+29%	47
Other	61% (23/38)	+35%	38
Геополитика	20% (1/5)	-79%	5
Технологии	0% (0/2)	-100%	2

Политика47 ставки
Попадания
43% (20/47)
ROI
+29%
Other38 ставки
Попадания
61% (23/38)
ROI
+35%
Геополитика5 ставки
Попадания
20% (1/5)
ROI
-79%
Технологии2 ставки
Попадания
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%

История результатов

48% попаданий · 44/92

Рынок	Исход	Размер	Вход	Итог
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026?	Yes	$18	18.0¢	Поражение
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	Yes	$254	17.0¢	Поражение
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	Yes	$11	5.4¢	Поражение
Will Donald Trump announce Harmeet Dhillon as the next United States Attorney General by June 30?	Yes	$9	1.5¢	Поражение
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?	Yes	$3.6k	52.5¢	Победа
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on April 16?	No	$105	70.0¢	Победа
Iran coup attempt by June 30?	Yes	$72	13.4¢	Поражение
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	Yes	$2.9k	65.5¢	Победа
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	No	$5.0k	79.0¢	Победа
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $97 on May 8?	No	$195	75.0¢	Победа
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $97 on May 8?	Yes	$874	21.6¢	Поражение
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	Yes	$331	22.2¢	Поражение
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	$677	84.7¢	Победа
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	$291	16.7¢	Поражение
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	Yes	$21	3.9¢	Поражение
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	No	$657	27.0¢	Поражение
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$11.9k	70.7¢	Победа
Trump drops Powell investigation before Warsh is confirmed?	Yes	$659	60.8¢	Победа
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iran?	Yes	$29	0.1¢	Поражение
FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires?	No	$1.1k	36.3¢	Поражение
FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires?	Yes	$736	80.6¢	Победа
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	No	$374	74.0¢	Победа
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C or higher on June 25?	Yes	$13	1.8¢	Поражение
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	$93	46.6¢	Поражение
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	$1.1k	89.3¢	Победа
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	$1.8k	76.7¢	Поражение
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $715 on May 6?	No	$13	5.0¢	Поражение
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	$171	85.4¢	Победа
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	$697	33.7¢	Поражение
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	Yes	$358	65.8¢	Победа
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	$58	29.0¢	Поражение
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31?	Yes	$904	86.6¢	Победа
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	Yes	$82	82.0¢	Победа
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	No	$1.4k	38.8¢	Поражение
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?	No	$1.6k	82.3¢	Победа
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	No	$526	82.0¢	Победа
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$1.6k	19.4¢	Поражение
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$944	83.4¢	Победа
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?	Yes	$411	10.4¢	Поражение
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10?	No	$98	61.0¢	Поражение
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?	Yes	$9	26.0¢	Поражение
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	$179	63.0¢	Победа
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$727	51.1¢	Поражение
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30?	No	$193	3.1¢	Поражение
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	$56	28.0¢	Поражение
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	$152	76.0¢	Победа
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$4	14.0¢	Поражение
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	Yes	$16	16.1¢	Поражение
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	Yes	$90	9.0¢	Поражение
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	Yes	$1.1k	67.9¢	Поражение

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026?Поражение
Yes$18 @ 18.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?Поражение
Yes$254 @ 17.0¢
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?Поражение
Yes$11 @ 5.4¢
Will Donald Trump announce Harmeet Dhillon as the next United States Attorney General by June 30?Поражение
Yes$9 @ 1.5¢
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?Победа
Yes$3.6k @ 52.5¢
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on April 16?Победа
No$105 @ 70.0¢
Iran coup attempt by June 30?Поражение
Yes$72 @ 13.4¢
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?Победа
Yes$2.9k @ 65.5¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Победа
No$5.0k @ 79.0¢
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $97 on May 8?Победа
No$195 @ 75.0¢
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $97 on May 8?Поражение
Yes$874 @ 21.6¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Поражение
Yes$331 @ 22.2¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Победа
No$677 @ 84.7¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Поражение
Yes$291 @ 16.7¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?Поражение
Yes$21 @ 3.9¢
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?Поражение
No$657 @ 27.0¢
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?Победа
Yes$11.9k @ 70.7¢
Trump drops Powell investigation before Warsh is confirmed?Победа
Yes$659 @ 60.8¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iran?Поражение
Yes$29 @ 0.1¢
FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires?Поражение
No$1.1k @ 36.3¢
FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires?Победа
Yes$736 @ 80.6¢
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?Победа
No$374 @ 74.0¢
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C or higher on June 25?Поражение
Yes$13 @ 1.8¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?Поражение
Yes$93 @ 46.6¢
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?Победа
No$1.1k @ 89.3¢
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?Поражение
Yes$1.8k @ 76.7¢
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $715 on May 6?Поражение
No$13 @ 5.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Победа
No$171 @ 85.4¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Поражение
Yes$697 @ 33.7¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?Победа
Yes$358 @ 65.8¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Поражение
No$58 @ 29.0¢
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31?Победа
Yes$904 @ 86.6¢
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?Победа
Yes$82 @ 82.0¢
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?Поражение
No$1.4k @ 38.8¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?Победа
No$1.6k @ 82.3¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?Победа
No$526 @ 82.0¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?Поражение
Yes$1.6k @ 19.4¢
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?Победа
Yes$944 @ 83.4¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?Поражение
Yes$411 @ 10.4¢
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10?Поражение
No$98 @ 61.0¢
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?Поражение
Yes$9 @ 26.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?Победа
No$179 @ 63.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?Поражение
Yes$727 @ 51.1¢
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30?Поражение
No$193 @ 3.1¢
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?Поражение
Yes$56 @ 28.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Победа
No$152 @ 76.0¢
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?Поражение
Yes$4 @ 14.0¢
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?Поражение
Yes$16 @ 16.1¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?Поражение
Yes$90 @ 9.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?Поражение
Yes$1.1k @ 67.9¢

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Текущие позиции

Рынок	Сфера	Исход	Размер	Вход
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	Политика	No	$8.5k	84.8¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Политика	Yes	$5.3k	29.0¢
Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30?	Политика	Yes	$2.5k	94.0¢
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 17?	—	Yes	$2.3k	54.3¢
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?	Политика	No	$2.0k	92.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Геополитика	No	$1.8k	92.3¢
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?	Политика	No	$1.8k	84.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Политика	Yes	$1.5k	50.3¢
Will Trump create a tariff dividend by June 30?	Политика	No	$1.0k	87.0¢
Lecornu out as French PM by June 30, 2026?	Политика	No	$857	74.1¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?	Политика	No	$776	96.6¢
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?	Политика	Yes	$772	54.8¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Политика	No	$714	75.1¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	Политика	Yes	$603	52.3¢
Will the federal gas tax be suspended by June 30, 2026?	Политика	No	$510	76.3¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Политика	No	$487	81.2¢
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Политика	Yes	$484	22.0¢
US congress stock trading ban before 2027?	Политика	Yes	$460	24.2¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?	Other	Yes	$433	57.0¢
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Indonesia" before 2027?	Политика	Yes	$422	24.5¢
Will Ed Miliband be in the Burnham cabinet?	—	Yes	$378	88.9¢
French election called by June 30, 2026?	Политика	No	$365	84.7¢
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?	Политика	Yes	$364	34.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June?	Other	Yes	$310	17.2¢
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?	Политика	Yes	$291	28.5¢
Will the Housing for the 21st Century Act become law this year?	Политика	Yes	$289	90.3¢
Will Micah Lasher win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by 10–15%?	Политика	No	$261	89.6¢
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?	Политика	Yes	$248	49.6¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	Other	Yes	$246	17.0¢
Glencore and Rio Tinto sale/merger announced by June 30?	Экономика	No	$244	90.9¢

Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Политика
No$8.5k @ 84.8¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?Политика
Yes$5.3k @ 29.0¢
Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30?Политика
Yes$2.5k @ 94.0¢
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 17?—
Yes$2.3k @ 54.3¢
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?Политика
No$2.0k @ 92.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Геополитика
No$1.8k @ 92.3¢
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?Политика
No$1.8k @ 84.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Политика
Yes$1.5k @ 50.3¢
Will Trump create a tariff dividend by June 30?Политика
No$1.0k @ 87.0¢
Lecornu out as French PM by June 30, 2026?Политика
No$857 @ 74.1¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?Политика
No$776 @ 96.6¢
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?Политика
Yes$772 @ 54.8¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Политика
No$714 @ 75.1¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?Политика
Yes$603 @ 52.3¢
Will the federal gas tax be suspended by June 30, 2026?Политика
No$510 @ 76.3¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Политика
No$487 @ 81.2¢
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Политика
Yes$484 @ 22.0¢
US congress stock trading ban before 2027?Политика
Yes$460 @ 24.2¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?Other
Yes$433 @ 57.0¢
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Indonesia" before 2027?Политика
Yes$422 @ 24.5¢
Will Ed Miliband be in the Burnham cabinet?—
Yes$378 @ 88.9¢
French election called by June 30, 2026?Политика
No$365 @ 84.7¢
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? Политика
Yes$364 @ 34.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June?Other
Yes$310 @ 17.2¢
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?Политика
Yes$291 @ 28.5¢
Will the Housing for the 21st Century Act become law this year?Политика
Yes$289 @ 90.3¢
Will Micah Lasher win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by 10–15%?Политика
No$261 @ 89.6¢
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?Политика
Yes$248 @ 49.6¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?Other
Yes$246 @ 17.0¢
Glencore and Rio Tinto sale/merger announced by June 30?Экономика
No$244 @ 90.9¢