0x5e73…6697

Профи

Эдж

+4.8pp

ROI

+10%

Доля побед

57% @ 52.3¢

Brier

0.173

Сделок

4106

Ср. размер

$192

Динамика ROI

Специализация по сферам

Сфера	Попадания	ROI	Ставки
Other	50% (352/709)	+17%	709
Политика	45% (135/298)	+5%	298
Геополитика	38% (15/40)	-66%	40
Экономика	38% (3/8)	-49%	8
Технологии	33% (2/6)	-75%	6
Спорт	50% (1/2)	-12%	2
Бизнес	50% (1/2)	-7%	2
Культура	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other709 ставки
Попадания
50% (352/709)
ROI
+17%
Политика298 ставки
Попадания
45% (135/298)
ROI
+5%
Геополитика40 ставки
Попадания
38% (15/40)
ROI
-66%
Экономика8 ставки
Попадания
38% (3/8)
ROI
-49%
Технологии6 ставки
Попадания
33% (2/6)
ROI
-75%
Спорт2 ставки
Попадания
50% (1/2)
ROI
-12%
Бизнес2 ставки
Попадания
50% (1/2)
ROI
-7%
Культура1 ставки
Попадания
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

История результатов

48% попаданий · 509/1066

Рынок	Исход	Размер	Вход	Итог
Will Kevin Hern replace Markwayne Mullin as United States Senator from Oklahoma?	Yes	$9	5.0¢	Поражение
Will the government shutdown last 21 days or more?	Yes	$36	6.0¢	Поражение
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026?	Yes	$18	18.0¢	Поражение
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?	Yes	$4.9k	84.5¢	Победа
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	Yes	$254	17.0¢	Поражение
North Korea missile launch by January 31?	Yes	$391	88.1¢	Победа
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	No	$226	24.5¢	Поражение
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	$1.8k	74.0¢	Победа
Will Trump say "Corn" during Iowa speech?	Yes	$65	65.0¢	Поражение
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	Yes	$160	40.0¢	Победа
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by January 31?	Yes	$75	37.5¢	Поражение
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 24?	No	$271	82.3¢	Победа
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 15?	Yes	$4	1.9¢	Поражение
Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks by December 31?	Yes	$203	36.1¢	Поражение
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?	No	$88	88.0¢	Победа
Trump declares a national emergency by March 31, 2026?	Yes	$86	64.0¢	Победа
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	$311	17.0¢	Поражение
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4?	No	$534	89.0¢	Победа
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4?	Yes	$658	17.0¢	Поражение
Will the federal gas tax be suspended by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$8	25.0¢	Поражение
Paramount x Warner Bros. acquisition announced by June 30?	Yes	$30	30.0¢	Победа
Will Epstein Data Set 13 be released by February 6?	No	$178	89.0¢	Победа
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	Yes	$11	5.4¢	Поражение
Paris curfew by October 24?	Yes	$234	12.0¢	Победа
Will Angeliki Stogia - Labour win the Gorton and Denton by-election?	Yes	$10	6.7¢	Поражение
Internet Access restored in Iran by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$2.1k	47.2¢	Поражение
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$128	64.9¢	Победа
Will Khamenei tweet again by March 14?	Yes	$22	36.0¢	Победа
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 26?	Yes	$72	6.1¢	Поражение
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?	No	$301	14.9¢	Поражение
Will Donald Trump announce Harmeet Dhillon as the next United States Attorney General by June 30?	Yes	$29	2.0¢	Поражение
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	$6	68.0¢	Поражение
Will UK strike Iran by March 31?	No	$3.0k	77.5¢	Победа
Will UK strike Iran by March 31?	Yes	$1.2k	30.6¢	Поражение
Trump announces tariff for Iran military cooperation by April 17?	No	$39	78.0¢	Победа
Will there be at least 1,000 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?	Yes	$82	82.0¢	Победа
Will the Republicans win the Alabama governor race in 2026?	Yes	$887	88.3¢	Победа
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?	Yes	$3.7k	50.3¢	Победа
Will Trump say "Economy" during Fed chair announcement?	No	$50	84.0¢	Победа
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-23 House seat?	Yes	$2.0k	66.0¢	Победа
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on April 16?	No	$105	70.0¢	Победа
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?	No	$1.6k	74.7¢	Победа
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?	Yes	$801	80.0¢	Поражение
Will House and Senate pass funding bill by January 30, 2026?	No	$1.6k	66.9¢	Победа
Will House and Senate pass funding bill by January 30, 2026?	Yes	$32	16.0¢	Поражение
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on February 24?	No	$48	72.0¢	Победа
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	$471	60.4¢	Победа
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March?	Yes	$190	38.0¢	Победа
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31?	No	$54	5.0¢	Поражение
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31?	Yes	$1.5k	74.4¢	Победа

Will Kevin Hern replace Markwayne Mullin as United States Senator from Oklahoma?Поражение
Yes$9 @ 5.0¢
Will the government shutdown last 21 days or more?Поражение
Yes$36 @ 6.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026?Поражение
Yes$18 @ 18.0¢
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Победа
Yes$4.9k @ 84.5¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?Поражение
Yes$254 @ 17.0¢
North Korea missile launch by January 31?Победа
Yes$391 @ 88.1¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?Поражение
No$226 @ 24.5¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?Победа
Yes$1.8k @ 74.0¢
Will Trump say "Corn" during Iowa speech?Поражение
Yes$65 @ 65.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?Победа
Yes$160 @ 40.0¢
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by January 31?Поражение
Yes$75 @ 37.5¢
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 24?Победа
No$271 @ 82.3¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 15?Поражение
Yes$4 @ 1.9¢
Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks by December 31?Поражение
Yes$203 @ 36.1¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?Победа
No$88 @ 88.0¢
Trump declares a national emergency by March 31, 2026?Победа
Yes$86 @ 64.0¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?Поражение
Yes$311 @ 17.0¢
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4?Победа
No$534 @ 89.0¢
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4?Поражение
Yes$658 @ 17.0¢
Will the federal gas tax be suspended by June 30, 2026?Поражение
Yes$8 @ 25.0¢
Paramount x Warner Bros. acquisition announced by June 30?Победа
Yes$30 @ 30.0¢
Will Epstein Data Set 13 be released by February 6?Победа
No$178 @ 89.0¢
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?Поражение
Yes$11 @ 5.4¢
Paris curfew by October 24?Победа
Yes$234 @ 12.0¢
Will Angeliki Stogia - Labour win the Gorton and Denton by-election?Поражение
Yes$10 @ 6.7¢
Internet Access restored in Iran by April 30, 2026?Поражение
Yes$2.1k @ 47.2¢
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?Победа
Yes$128 @ 64.9¢
Will Khamenei tweet again by March 14?Победа
Yes$22 @ 36.0¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 26?Поражение
Yes$72 @ 6.1¢
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?Поражение
No$301 @ 14.9¢
Will Donald Trump announce Harmeet Dhillon as the next United States Attorney General by June 30?Поражение
Yes$29 @ 2.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?Поражение
Yes$6 @ 68.0¢
Will UK strike Iran by March 31?Победа
No$3.0k @ 77.5¢
Will UK strike Iran by March 31?Поражение
Yes$1.2k @ 30.6¢
Trump announces tariff for Iran military cooperation by April 17?Победа
No$39 @ 78.0¢
Will there be at least 1,000 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?Победа
Yes$82 @ 82.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Alabama governor race in 2026?Победа
Yes$887 @ 88.3¢
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?Победа
Yes$3.7k @ 50.3¢
Will Trump say "Economy" during Fed chair announcement?Победа
No$50 @ 84.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-23 House seat?Победа
Yes$2.0k @ 66.0¢
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on April 16?Победа
No$105 @ 70.0¢
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?Победа
No$1.6k @ 74.7¢
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?Поражение
Yes$801 @ 80.0¢
Will House and Senate pass funding bill by January 30, 2026?Победа
No$1.6k @ 66.9¢
Will House and Senate pass funding bill by January 30, 2026?Поражение
Yes$32 @ 16.0¢
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on February 24?Победа
No$48 @ 72.0¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Победа
Yes$471 @ 60.4¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March?Победа
Yes$190 @ 38.0¢
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31? Поражение
No$54 @ 5.0¢
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31? Победа
Yes$1.5k @ 74.4¢

Недавние сделки

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Текущие позиции

Рынок	Сфера	Исход	Размер	Вход
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Политика	Yes	$20.4k	55.3¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?	—	Yes	$9.1k	35.0¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	Политика	Yes	$4.3k	68.3¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Политика	Yes	$3.9k	47.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Политика	Yes	$3.8k	41.7¢
Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	Политика	Yes	$3.3k	32.9¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Политика	Yes	$3.1k	45.3¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?	Политика	Yes	$2.6k	30.8¢
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Политика	Yes	$1.8k	40.9¢
Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?	Политика	Yes	$1.6k	22.2¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	Технологии	No	$1.5k	48.8¢
Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?	Политика	No	$1.5k	80.6¢
Will Marine Le Pen win the most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	Политика	Yes	$1.4k	83.5¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	Политика	Yes	$1.3k	27.6¢
US imports Russian diesel by November 30?	Политика	No	$1.1k	52.7¢
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	Политика	Yes	$1.0k	30.9¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	Политика	Yes	$1.0k	28.4¢
Trump renames AI by September 30?	Политика	No	$921	59.4¢
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Технологии	No	$871	38.8¢
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	Политика	Yes	$820	46.5¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	—	Yes	$804	66.0¢
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?	Политика	Yes	$772	54.8¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by March 13?	—	Yes	$748	11.5¢
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-27 House seat?	Политика	Yes	$686	29.0¢
Will the IEA ask Germany to release oil stocks by December 31?	Политика	No	$683	53.0¢
Will Trump say "Tariff" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?	—	No	$644	78.0¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?	Технологии	No	$642	55.0¢
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on July 8?	—	Up	$621	13.8¢
NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?	Политика	Yes	$578	21.6¢
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in September?	—	Yes	$552	82.9¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Политика
Yes$20.4k @ 55.3¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?—
Yes$9.1k @ 35.0¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?Политика
Yes$4.3k @ 68.3¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Политика
Yes$3.9k @ 47.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Политика
Yes$3.8k @ 41.7¢
Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?Политика
Yes$3.3k @ 32.9¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Политика
Yes$3.1k @ 45.3¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?Политика
Yes$2.6k @ 30.8¢
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Политика
Yes$1.8k @ 40.9¢
Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?Политика
Yes$1.6k @ 22.2¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?Технологии
No$1.5k @ 48.8¢
Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?Политика
No$1.5k @ 80.6¢
Will Marine Le Pen win the most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?Политика
Yes$1.4k @ 83.5¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?Политика
Yes$1.3k @ 27.6¢
US imports Russian diesel by November 30?Политика
No$1.1k @ 52.7¢
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?Политика
Yes$1.0k @ 30.9¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?Политика
Yes$1.0k @ 28.4¢
Trump renames AI by September 30?Политика
No$921 @ 59.4¢
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?Технологии
No$871 @ 38.8¢
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?Политика
Yes$820 @ 46.5¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?—
Yes$804 @ 66.0¢
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?Политика
Yes$772 @ 54.8¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by March 13?—
Yes$748 @ 11.5¢
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-27 House seat?Политика
Yes$686 @ 29.0¢
Will the IEA ask Germany to release oil stocks by December 31?Политика
No$683 @ 53.0¢
Will Trump say "Tariff" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?—
No$644 @ 78.0¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?Технологии
No$642 @ 55.0¢
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on July 8?—
Up$621 @ 13.8¢
NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?Политика
Yes$578 @ 21.6¢
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in September?—
Yes$552 @ 82.9¢