0x5c7b…d463

Профи

Эдж

+4.3pp

ROI

+6%

Доля побед

11% @ 6.9¢

Brier

0.048

Сделок

558

Ср. размер

Динамика ROI

Специализация по сферам

Сфера	Попадания	ROI	Ставки
Политика	8% (5/61)	+4%	61
Other	0% (0/40)	-100%	40
Геополитика	11% (2/18)	-48%	18
Технологии	25% (4/16)	-12%	16
Экономика	20% (3/15)	-12%	15
Крипто	20% (1/5)	+69%	5
Бизнес	0% (0/2)	-100%	2
Спорт	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Культура	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Политика61 ставки
Попадания
8% (5/61)
ROI
+4%
Other40 ставки
Попадания
0% (0/40)
ROI
-100%
Геополитика18 ставки
Попадания
11% (2/18)
ROI
-48%
Технологии16 ставки
Попадания
25% (4/16)
ROI
-12%
Экономика15 ставки
Попадания
20% (3/15)
ROI
-12%
Крипто5 ставки
Попадания
20% (1/5)
ROI
+69%
Бизнес2 ставки
Попадания
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%
Спорт1 ставки
Попадания
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Культура1 ставки
Попадания
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

История результатов

9% попаданий · 15/159

Рынок	Исход	Размер	Вход	Итог
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026?	Yes	$1	0.4¢	Поражение
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	Yes	$2	0.9¢	Поражение
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$52	2.4¢	Поражение
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30?	Yes	$3	3.0¢	Поражение
Will OpenAI IPO by July 31 2026?	Yes	$0	0.2¢	Поражение
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?	No	$20	59.0¢	Поражение
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	$24	87.0¢	Победа
Will Apple announce a foldable iPhone during the WWDC 2026 keynote?	Yes	$3	2.0¢	Поражение
Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Поражение
Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?	No	$0	1.0¢	Поражение
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?	No	$0	0.4¢	Поражение
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	$12	2.0¢	Поражение
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Yes	$76	63.8¢	Победа
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	Yes	$2	2.0¢	Поражение
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?	No	$21	10.5¢	Победа
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Yes	$14	0.1¢	Поражение
Will Vaibhav Sooryavanshi win the 2026 IPL Orange Cap?	No	$12	54.0¢	Победа
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$55	55.4¢	Победа
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30?	Yes	$5	1.0¢	Поражение
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	$2	0.5¢	Поражение
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?	Yes	$4	2.0¢	Поражение
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	$20	2.7¢	Поражение
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	$12	4.0¢	Поражение
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	Yes	$1	0.4¢	Поражение
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?	Yes	$33	56.0¢	Победа
Israeli forces enter Beirut by June 30?	Yes	$7	3.1¢	Поражение
Will Tucker Carlson announce Presidential run by June 30?	Yes	$0	0.4¢	Поражение
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30?	Yes	$0	0.6¢	Поражение
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?	Yes	$0	0.4¢	Поражение
Will Park Chan-dae win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election?	No	$2	1.1¢	Поражение
Will Cho Sangho win the 2026 Sejong mayoral election?	No	$0	0.3¢	Поражение
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?	No	$9	8.0¢	Поражение
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$4	0.6¢	Поражение
Will Lara Bird win the 2026 Arbroath and Broughty Ferry by-election?	No	$2	6.0¢	Поражение
Will Trump publicly insult Mojtaba Khamenei by Friday?	Yes	$2	2.0¢	Поражение
Will Elon Musk post 1400+ tweets in June 2026?	Yes	$2	1.0¢	Поражение
Rodrigo Paz out as President of Bolivia by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$1	1.0¢	Поражение
Will Anthropic have the third highest private market valuation on June 30?	Yes	$4	9.9¢	Поражение
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026?	Yes	$0	0.2¢	Поражение
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	$36	33.6¢	Победа
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$20	3.4¢	Поражение
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	$10	40.0¢	Поражение
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by June 30?	Yes	$0	0.3¢	Поражение
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?	Yes	$0	0.3¢	Поражение
Will Wi Seong-gon win the 2026 Jeju Province Gubernatorial Election?	No	$3	2.0¢	Поражение
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	$39	0.3¢	Поражение
Jimmy Lai released by June 30?	Yes	$0	0.2¢	Поражение
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	$0	0.2¢	Поражение
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$2	0.1¢	Поражение
Will Blake Moore be the Republican nominee for UT-02?	No	$2	2.0¢	Поражение

Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026?Поражение
Yes$1 @ 0.4¢
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?Поражение
Yes$2 @ 0.9¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Поражение
Yes$52 @ 2.4¢
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30?Поражение
Yes$3 @ 3.0¢
Will OpenAI IPO by July 31 2026?Поражение
Yes$0 @ 0.2¢
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?Поражение
No$20 @ 59.0¢
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?Победа
Yes$24 @ 87.0¢
Will Apple announce a foldable iPhone during the WWDC 2026 keynote?Поражение
Yes$3 @ 2.0¢
Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?Поражение
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?Поражение
No$0 @ 1.0¢
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?Поражение
No$0 @ 0.4¢
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?Поражение
No$12 @ 2.0¢
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?Победа
Yes$76 @ 63.8¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?Поражение
Yes$2 @ 2.0¢
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?Победа
No$21 @ 10.5¢
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?Поражение
Yes$14 @ 0.1¢
Will Vaibhav Sooryavanshi win the 2026 IPL Orange Cap?Победа
No$12 @ 54.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Победа
No$55 @ 55.4¢
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30?Поражение
Yes$5 @ 1.0¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?Поражение
Yes$2 @ 0.5¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?Поражение
Yes$4 @ 2.0¢
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?Поражение
Yes$20 @ 2.7¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?Поражение
Yes$12 @ 4.0¢
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?Поражение
Yes$1 @ 0.4¢
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?Победа
Yes$33 @ 56.0¢
Israeli forces enter Beirut by June 30?Поражение
Yes$7 @ 3.1¢
Will Tucker Carlson announce Presidential run by June 30?Поражение
Yes$0 @ 0.4¢
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30?Поражение
Yes$0 @ 0.6¢
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?Поражение
Yes$0 @ 0.4¢
Will Park Chan-dae win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election?Поражение
No$2 @ 1.1¢
Will Cho Sangho win the 2026 Sejong mayoral election?Поражение
No$0 @ 0.3¢
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?Поражение
No$9 @ 8.0¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?Поражение
Yes$4 @ 0.6¢
Will Lara Bird win the 2026 Arbroath and Broughty Ferry by-election?Поражение
No$2 @ 6.0¢
Will Trump publicly insult Mojtaba Khamenei by Friday?Поражение
Yes$2 @ 2.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 1400+ tweets in June 2026?Поражение
Yes$2 @ 1.0¢
Rodrigo Paz out as President of Bolivia by May 31, 2026?Поражение
Yes$1 @ 1.0¢
Will Anthropic have the third highest private market valuation on June 30?Поражение
Yes$4 @ 9.9¢
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026?Поражение
Yes$0 @ 0.2¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?Победа
No$36 @ 33.6¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?Поражение
Yes$20 @ 3.4¢
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?Поражение
Yes$10 @ 40.0¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by June 30?Поражение
Yes$0 @ 0.3¢
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?Поражение
Yes$0 @ 0.3¢
Will Wi Seong-gon win the 2026 Jeju Province Gubernatorial Election?Поражение
No$3 @ 2.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Поражение
Yes$39 @ 0.3¢
Jimmy Lai released by June 30?Поражение
Yes$0 @ 0.2¢
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Поражение
Yes$0 @ 0.2¢
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026?Поражение
Yes$2 @ 0.1¢
Will Blake Moore be the Republican nominee for UT-02?Поражение
No$2 @ 2.0¢

Недавние сделки

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Текущие позиции

Рынок	Сфера	Исход	Размер	Вход
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	—	Yes	$20	51.0¢
Will Vilgefortz die during "The Witcher: Season 5"?	Культура	No	$5	7.0¢
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Спорт	Yes	$5	0.3¢
Will Elon Musk post 1400+ tweets in July 2026?	—	Yes	$3	6.0¢
Will China blockade Taiwan by in 2026?	Геополитика	Yes	$3	4.0¢
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Спорт	Yes	$2	0.3¢
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Экономика	Yes	$2	3.0¢
Nick Fuentes and Sophie Rain confirmed relationship by September 30?	—	Yes	$2	2.0¢
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Спорт	Yes	$1	0.3¢
Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?	Экономика	Yes	$1	6.0¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?	Геополитика	Yes	$1	3.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Политика	No	$1	66.5¢
Will Kylian Mbappe leave Real Madrid before August 31?	Спорт	Yes	$1	2.0¢
Will Alaska Airlines announce bankruptcy by December 31?	Технологии	Yes	$1	4.0¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Политика	No	$1	16.0¢
AI bubble burst in 2026?	Технологии	Yes	$1	12.5¢
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by August 31, 2026?	—	Yes	$1	3.0¢
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?	—	Yes	$1	5.0¢
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Геополитика	Yes	$0	3.0¢
Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026?	Крипто	Yes	$0	3.0¢
Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026?	Крипто	Yes	$0	3.0¢
Will Anthropic have the highest private market valuation on July 31?	—	No	$0	5.0¢
Will there be 80 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?	—	Yes	$0	4.0¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?	Геополитика	Yes	$0	4.0¢
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by July 31?	—	Yes	$0	4.0¢
Will OpenAI IPO by July 31 2026?	Технологии	Yes	$0	0.2¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026?	—	Yes	$0	2.1¢
Will 100 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?	—	Yes	$0	2.0¢
Will Australia send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?	—	Yes	$0	1.0¢
Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of July 2026?	—	No	$0	5.0¢

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?—
Yes$20 @ 51.0¢
Will Vilgefortz die during "The Witcher: Season 5"?Культура
No$5 @ 7.0¢
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Спорт
Yes$5 @ 0.3¢
Will Elon Musk post 1400+ tweets in July 2026?—
Yes$3 @ 6.0¢
Will China blockade Taiwan by in 2026?Геополитика
Yes$3 @ 4.0¢
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Спорт
Yes$2 @ 0.3¢
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Экономика
Yes$2 @ 3.0¢
Nick Fuentes and Sophie Rain confirmed relationship by September 30?—
Yes$2 @ 2.0¢
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Спорт
Yes$1 @ 0.3¢
Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?Экономика
Yes$1 @ 6.0¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?Геополитика
Yes$1 @ 3.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Политика
No$1 @ 66.5¢
Will Kylian Mbappe leave Real Madrid before August 31?Спорт
Yes$1 @ 2.0¢
Will Alaska Airlines announce bankruptcy by December 31?Технологии
Yes$1 @ 4.0¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Политика
No$1 @ 16.0¢
AI bubble burst in 2026?Технологии
Yes$1 @ 12.5¢
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by August 31, 2026?—
Yes$1 @ 3.0¢
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?—
Yes$1 @ 5.0¢
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Геополитика
Yes$0 @ 3.0¢
Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026?Крипто
Yes$0 @ 3.0¢
Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026?Крипто
Yes$0 @ 3.0¢
Will Anthropic have the highest private market valuation on July 31?—
No$0 @ 5.0¢
Will there be 80 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?—
Yes$0 @ 4.0¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?Геополитика
Yes$0 @ 4.0¢
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by July 31?—
Yes$0 @ 4.0¢
Will OpenAI IPO by July 31 2026?Технологии
Yes$0 @ 0.2¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026?—
Yes$0 @ 2.1¢
Will 100 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?—
Yes$0 @ 2.0¢
Will Australia send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?—
Yes$0 @ 1.0¢
Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of July 2026?—
No$0 @ 5.0¢