0x55b3…4dcb

Профи

Эдж

+11.5pp

ROI

+25%

Доля побед

61% @ 50.0¢

Brier

0.152

Сделок

405

Ср. размер

$188

Динамика ROI

Специализация по сферам

Сфера	Попадания	ROI	Ставки
Политика	56% (32/57)	+33%	57
Other	53% (26/49)	+2%	49

Политика57 ставки
Попадания
56% (32/57)
ROI
+33%
Other49 ставки
Попадания
53% (26/49)
ROI
+2%

История результатов

55% попаданий · 58/106

Рынок	Исход	Размер	Вход	Итог
2024 Balance of Power: D Prez, R Senate, R House	Yes	$4	5.9¢	Поражение
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	No	$10	5.0¢	Победа
Will Fidesz-KDNP win 70-84 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?	Yes	$20	25.0¢	Поражение
Will the Democratic Coalition (DK) win at least one seat in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?	Yes	$10	7.8¢	Поражение
Will NDP win the most seats in the 2026 British Columbia general election?	Yes	$51	13.2¢	Поражение
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	Yes	$15	2.8¢	Поражение
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Indiana Secretary of State election?	Yes	$314	48.3¢	Победа
Will Tisza win at least 130 seats?	Yes	$30	35.0¢	Победа
Will Tisza win at least 110 seats?	Yes	$100	57.0¢	Победа
Will Fidesz-KDNP win <70 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?	Yes	$20	27.6¢	Победа
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	$3.0k	62.0¢	Победа
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio?	Yes	$49	1.1¢	Поражение
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	$300	71.2¢	Победа
Will Republicans win Maine, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?	Yes	$25	2.3¢	Поражение
Will the Democratic Party win the OK-05 House seat?	Yes	$52	13.9¢	Поражение
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$17	0.8¢	Поражение
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	$8.0k	66.5¢	Победа
Will Beinir Johannesen be the next Løgmaður of the Faroe Islands following the 2026 Faroese general election?	Yes	$292	89.2¢	Победа
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	$504	66.1¢	Победа
Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by 60% or more?	No	$584	80.0¢	Победа
Will Republicans win Iowa, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, and Ohio?	Yes	$22	0.4¢	Поражение
Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by between 20% and 40%?	Yes	$28	15.0¢	Победа
Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?	Yes	$4.5k	81.7¢	Победа
Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 80 seats?	No	$33	44.8¢	Победа
Will Tisza win at least 120 seats?	Yes	$50	50.6¢	Победа
Will the Republicans win the Oklahoma governor race in 2026?	Yes	$8.3k	81.2¢	Победа
Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	$1.8k	43.2¢	Победа
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?	No	$500	76.3¢	Победа
Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by less than 3%?	Yes	$2	24.0¢	Поражение
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	Yes	$101	21.1¢	Победа
Will the Democratic Party win the KY-06 House seat?	Yes	$52	37.0¢	Победа
Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by 6-9%?	Yes	$42	23.0¢	Поражение
Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?	Yes	$139	9.4¢	Поражение
Will Republicans win Iowa and Maine, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?	Yes	$56	3.0¢	Поражение
Will the Democratic Party win the WI-03 House seat?	Yes	$51	77.0¢	Победа
Will BN win the 2026 Negeri Sembilan general elections?	Yes	$399	57.7¢	Победа
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	No	$267	89.1¢	Победа
Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election?	Yes	$434	71.2¢	Победа
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	$603	64.8¢	Победа
Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 100 seats?	No	$1.0k	78.8¢	Победа
Will Republicans win Iowa and Michigan, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas?	Yes	$40	1.2¢	Поражение
Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?	Yes	$101	61.0¢	Победа
Will the Republicans win the Georgia governor race in 2026?	No	$1.5k	68.7¢	Победа
Will Tisza win at least 100 seats?	Yes	$125	70.2¢	Победа
Will Fidesz-KDNP win 85-99 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?	Yes	$10	16.0¢	Поражение
Will Rafael López Aliaga and Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff?	Yes	$107	13.0¢	Поражение
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?	Yes	$20	56.0¢	Победа
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	$1.0k	69.0¢	Победа
Will Republicans win Iowa and Texas, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio?	Yes	$26	1.1¢	Поражение
Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	$659	83.3¢	Победа

2024 Balance of Power: D Prez, R Senate, R HouseПоражение
Yes$4 @ 5.9¢
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?Победа
No$10 @ 5.0¢
Will Fidesz-KDNP win 70-84 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?Поражение
Yes$20 @ 25.0¢
Will the Democratic Coalition (DK) win at least one seat in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?Поражение
Yes$10 @ 7.8¢
Will NDP win the most seats in the 2026 British Columbia general election?Поражение
Yes$51 @ 13.2¢
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?Поражение
Yes$15 @ 2.8¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Indiana Secretary of State election?Победа
Yes$314 @ 48.3¢
Will Tisza win at least 130 seats?Победа
Yes$30 @ 35.0¢
Will Tisza win at least 110 seats?Победа
Yes$100 @ 57.0¢
Will Fidesz-KDNP win <70 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?Победа
Yes$20 @ 27.6¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseПобеда
Yes$3.0k @ 62.0¢
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio?Поражение
Yes$49 @ 1.1¢
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Победа
Yes$300 @ 71.2¢
Will Republicans win Maine, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?Поражение
Yes$25 @ 2.3¢
Will the Democratic Party win the OK-05 House seat?Поражение
Yes$52 @ 13.9¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?Поражение
Yes$17 @ 0.8¢
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Победа
Yes$8.0k @ 66.5¢
Will Beinir Johannesen be the next Løgmaður of the Faroe Islands following the 2026 Faroese general election?Победа
Yes$292 @ 89.2¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Победа
Yes$504 @ 66.1¢
Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by 60% or more?Победа
No$584 @ 80.0¢
Will Republicans win Iowa, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, and Ohio?Поражение
Yes$22 @ 0.4¢
Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by between 20% and 40%?Победа
Yes$28 @ 15.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?Победа
Yes$4.5k @ 81.7¢
Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 80 seats?Победа
No$33 @ 44.8¢
Will Tisza win at least 120 seats?Победа
Yes$50 @ 50.6¢
Will the Republicans win the Oklahoma governor race in 2026?Победа
Yes$8.3k @ 81.2¢
Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?Победа
Yes$1.8k @ 43.2¢
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?Победа
No$500 @ 76.3¢
Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by less than 3%?Поражение
Yes$2 @ 24.0¢
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?Победа
Yes$101 @ 21.1¢
Will the Democratic Party win the KY-06 House seat?Победа
Yes$52 @ 37.0¢
Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by 6-9%?Поражение
Yes$42 @ 23.0¢
Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?Поражение
Yes$139 @ 9.4¢
Will Republicans win Iowa and Maine, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?Поражение
Yes$56 @ 3.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the WI-03 House seat?Победа
Yes$51 @ 77.0¢
Will BN win the 2026 Negeri Sembilan general elections?Победа
Yes$399 @ 57.7¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?Победа
No$267 @ 89.1¢
Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election?Победа
Yes$434 @ 71.2¢
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Победа
Yes$603 @ 64.8¢
Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 100 seats?Победа
No$1.0k @ 78.8¢
Will Republicans win Iowa and Michigan, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas?Поражение
Yes$40 @ 1.2¢
Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?Победа
Yes$101 @ 61.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Georgia governor race in 2026?Победа
No$1.5k @ 68.7¢
Will Tisza win at least 100 seats?Победа
Yes$125 @ 70.2¢
Will Fidesz-KDNP win 85-99 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?Поражение
Yes$10 @ 16.0¢
Will Rafael López Aliaga and Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff?Поражение
Yes$107 @ 13.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?Победа
Yes$20 @ 56.0¢
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Победа
No$1.0k @ 69.0¢
Will Republicans win Iowa and Texas, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio?Поражение
Yes$26 @ 1.1¢
Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?Победа
Yes$659 @ 83.3¢

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Текущие позиции

Рынок	Сфера	Исход	Размер	Вход
Will Johnny Chiang win the next Taichung Mayor election?	Политика	Yes	$1.5k	77.0¢
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Политика	Yes	$1.4k	68.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Политика	Yes	$655	83.3¢
Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?	Политика	Yes	$137	9.4¢
Will Yabloko win at least one seat in the next Russian State Duma election?	—	Yes	$118	26.7¢
Will Republicans win Iowa and Maine, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?	Политика	Yes	$56	3.0¢
Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election?	Политика	Yes	$51	41.0¢
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, and Maine, and lose Alaska, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?	Политика	Yes	$50	4.8¢
Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	Политика	Yes	$49	18.5¢
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio?	Политика	Yes	$47	1.1¢
Will Republicans win Iowa and Michigan, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas?	Политика	Yes	$38	1.2¢
Will Republicans win Iowa and Texas, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio?	Политика	Yes	$25	1.1¢
Will Republicans win Iowa, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, and Ohio?	Политика	Yes	$21	0.4¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Политика	Yes	$16	0.8¢
Will Republicans hold 47–49 Senate seats and ≤192 House seats after the 2026 midterms?	Политика	Yes	$1	14.8¢

Will Johnny Chiang win the next Taichung Mayor election?Политика
Yes$1.5k @ 77.0¢
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?Политика
Yes$1.4k @ 68.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?Политика
Yes$655 @ 83.3¢
Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?Политика
Yes$137 @ 9.4¢
Will Yabloko win at least one seat in the next Russian State Duma election?—
Yes$118 @ 26.7¢
Will Republicans win Iowa and Maine, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?Политика
Yes$56 @ 3.0¢
Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election?Политика
Yes$51 @ 41.0¢
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, and Maine, and lose Alaska, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?Политика
Yes$50 @ 4.8¢
Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?Политика
Yes$49 @ 18.5¢
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio?Политика
Yes$47 @ 1.1¢
Will Republicans win Iowa and Michigan, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas?Политика
Yes$38 @ 1.2¢
Will Republicans win Iowa and Texas, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio?Политика
Yes$25 @ 1.1¢
Will Republicans win Iowa, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, and Ohio?Политика
Yes$21 @ 0.4¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?Политика
Yes$16 @ 0.8¢
Will Republicans hold 47–49 Senate seats and ≤192 House seats after the 2026 midterms?Политика
Yes$1 @ 14.8¢