0x4e25…d7a7

Профи

Эдж

+5.2pp

ROI

+19%

Доля побед

53% @ 48.3¢

Brier

0.196

Сделок

681

Ср. размер

$156

Динамика ROI

Специализация по сферам

Сфера	Попадания	ROI	Ставки
Other	50% (14/28)	+32%	28
Политика	42% (5/12)	+25%	12
Геополитика	40% (2/5)	-69%	5

Other28 ставки
Попадания
50% (14/28)
ROI
+32%
Политика12 ставки
Попадания
42% (5/12)
ROI
+25%
Геополитика5 ставки
Попадания
40% (2/5)
ROI
-69%

История результатов

47% попаданий · 21/45

Рынок	Исход	Размер	Вход	Итог
Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?	No	$5	40.0¢	Поражение
Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?	Yes	$1.8k	57.2¢	Победа
Will James Talarico and John Cornyn be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?	No	$1.8k	58.8¢	Победа
Will James Talarico and John Cornyn be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?	Yes	$12	38.0¢	Поражение
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$14	2.2¢	Поражение
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$572	45.4¢	Победа
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	No	$5.9k	39.3¢	Победа
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	Yes	$459	56.7¢	Поражение
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027?	No	$981	57.2¢	Поражение
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027?	Yes	$883	40.0¢	Победа
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	$530	31.2¢	Победа
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	Yes	$153	34.6¢	Победа
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026?	Yes	$189	11.4¢	Поражение
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	No	$1.1k	58.1¢	Победа
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	Yes	$360	40.0¢	Поражение
Will April 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?	Yes	$115	9.5¢	Поражение
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?	No	$5	0.2¢	Поражение
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	$6.7k	74.7¢	Победа
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	$144	6.4¢	Поражение
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	No	$369	41.0¢	Поражение
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	Yes	$1.2k	56.5¢	Победа
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	Yes	$33	0.6¢	Поражение
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	No	$805	89.5¢	Победа
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$12	3.0¢	Победа
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	No	$756	73.0¢	Поражение
Iran leadership change by April 30?	Yes	$48	4.1¢	Поражение
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?	No	$12.9k	82.6¢	Победа
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?	Yes	$49	4.5¢	Поражение
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?	No	$14.1k	33.6¢	Победа
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?	Yes	$24.5k	69.9¢	Поражение
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	$0	1.5¢	Поражение
Starmer out by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$14	0.8¢	Поражение
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	No	$275	18.0¢	Поражение
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	Yes	$4.0k	74.0¢	Победа
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?	No	$4.6k	85.7¢	Победа
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?	Yes	$74	7.2¢	Поражение
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	$5.8k	69.7¢	Победа
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$193	21.4¢	Поражение
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?	No	$124	46.0¢	Поражение
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?	Yes	$1.7k	47.7¢	Победа
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$43	6.0¢	Победа
Will Gustavo Petro be charged in the US by April 30?	Yes	$2	0.4¢	Поражение
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	No	$287	59.0¢	Победа
Starmer out by April 30, 2026?	No	$792	88.0¢	Победа
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	$6.9k	74.4¢	Поражение

Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?Поражение
No$5 @ 40.0¢
Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?Победа
Yes$1.8k @ 57.2¢
Will James Talarico and John Cornyn be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?Победа
No$1.8k @ 58.8¢
Will James Talarico and John Cornyn be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?Поражение
Yes$12 @ 38.0¢
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?Поражение
Yes$14 @ 2.2¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Победа
No$572 @ 45.4¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Победа
No$5.9k @ 39.3¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Поражение
Yes$459 @ 56.7¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027?Поражение
No$981 @ 57.2¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027?Победа
Yes$883 @ 40.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Победа
No$530 @ 31.2¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?Победа
Yes$153 @ 34.6¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026?Поражение
Yes$189 @ 11.4¢
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?Победа
No$1.1k @ 58.1¢
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?Поражение
Yes$360 @ 40.0¢
Will April 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?Поражение
Yes$115 @ 9.5¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?Поражение
No$5 @ 0.2¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Победа
No$6.7k @ 74.7¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Поражение
Yes$144 @ 6.4¢
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?Поражение
No$369 @ 41.0¢
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?Победа
Yes$1.2k @ 56.5¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?Поражение
Yes$33 @ 0.6¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?Победа
No$805 @ 89.5¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?Победа
Yes$12 @ 3.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?Поражение
No$756 @ 73.0¢
Iran leadership change by April 30?Поражение
Yes$48 @ 4.1¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?Победа
No$12.9k @ 82.6¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?Поражение
Yes$49 @ 4.5¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?Победа
No$14.1k @ 33.6¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?Поражение
Yes$24.5k @ 69.9¢
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?Поражение
Yes$0 @ 1.5¢
Starmer out by April 30, 2026?Поражение
Yes$14 @ 0.8¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?Поражение
No$275 @ 18.0¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?Победа
Yes$4.0k @ 74.0¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?Победа
No$4.6k @ 85.7¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?Поражение
Yes$74 @ 7.2¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?Победа
No$5.8k @ 69.7¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?Поражение
Yes$193 @ 21.4¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?Поражение
No$124 @ 46.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?Победа
Yes$1.7k @ 47.7¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?Победа
Yes$43 @ 6.0¢
Will Gustavo Petro be charged in the US by April 30?Поражение
Yes$2 @ 0.4¢
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?Победа
No$287 @ 59.0¢
Starmer out by April 30, 2026?Победа
No$792 @ 88.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Поражение
Yes$6.9k @ 74.4¢

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Текущие позиции

Рынок	Сфера	Исход	Размер	Вход
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Политика	No	$24.9k	82.1¢
Trump out as President before 2027?	Политика	No	$16.6k	81.8¢
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Политика	No	$14.7k	55.3¢
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Политика	Yes	$13.8k	36.7¢
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	Политика	No	$10.4k	81.3¢
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?	Политика	No	$9.6k	85.8¢
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition?	Политика	Yes	$6.9k	85.0¢
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Политика	No	$6.6k	82.8¢
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Политика	No	$5.3k	89.4¢
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	Политика	No	$5.1k	86.5¢
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	Политика	No	$5.0k	60.1¢
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	Политика	No	$4.5k	88.6¢
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?	Политика	Yes	$4.3k	61.8¢
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?	Политика	No	$4.2k	93.0¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Политика	No	$3.8k	81.9¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Политика	Yes	$3.7k	33.4¢
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027?	Политика	No	$3.6k	64.2¢
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Политика	No	$3.5k	94.8¢
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Спорт	No	$3.3k	90.0¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Политика	Yes	$3.3k	33.4¢
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Спорт	No	$3.3k	95.5¢
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Спорт	No	$3.2k	97.7¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Политика	No	$3.0k	53.7¢
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Политика	No	$2.9k	94.0¢
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Политика	No	$2.6k	95.0¢
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Экономика	Yes	$2.5k	21.1¢
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027?	Политика	No	$2.4k	16.2¢
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Политика	No	$2.2k	94.8¢
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at <$6,000 in December?	Other	No	$2.2k	59.0¢
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Политика	Yes	$2.1k	44.6¢

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?Политика
No$24.9k @ 82.1¢
Trump out as President before 2027?Политика
No$16.6k @ 81.8¢
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Политика
No$14.7k @ 55.3¢
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Политика
Yes$13.8k @ 36.7¢
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?Политика
No$10.4k @ 81.3¢
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?Политика
No$9.6k @ 85.8¢
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition?Политика
Yes$6.9k @ 85.0¢
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Политика
No$6.6k @ 82.8¢
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?Политика
No$5.3k @ 89.4¢
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?Политика
No$5.1k @ 86.5¢
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?Политика
No$5.0k @ 60.1¢
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?Политика
No$4.5k @ 88.6¢
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?Политика
Yes$4.3k @ 61.8¢
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?Политика
No$4.2k @ 93.0¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Политика
No$3.8k @ 81.9¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Политика
Yes$3.7k @ 33.4¢
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027?Политика
No$3.6k @ 64.2¢
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026?Политика
No$3.5k @ 94.8¢
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship?Спорт
No$3.3k @ 90.0¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HouseПолитика
Yes$3.3k @ 33.4¢
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship?Спорт
No$3.3k @ 95.5¢
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship?Спорт
No$3.2k @ 97.7¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Политика
No$3.0k @ 53.7¢
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Политика
No$2.9k @ 94.0¢
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Политика
No$2.6k @ 95.0¢
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Экономика
Yes$2.5k @ 21.1¢
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027?Политика
No$2.4k @ 16.2¢
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Политика
No$2.2k @ 94.8¢
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at <$6,000 in December?Other
No$2.2k @ 59.0¢
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?Политика
Yes$2.1k @ 44.6¢