0x4b72…38d5

Прибыльный

Эдж

+27.2pp

ROI

+81%

Доля побед

81% @ 53.6¢

Brier

0.242

Сделок

Ср. размер

$133

Специализация по сферам

Сфера	Попадания	ROI	Ставки
Технологии	91% (30/33)	+116%	33
Other	57% (8/14)	+9%	14
Геополитика	86% (6/7)	+29%	7

Технологии33 ставки
Попадания
91% (30/33)
ROI
+116%
Other14 ставки
Попадания
57% (8/14)
ROI
+9%
Геополитика7 ставки
Попадания
86% (6/7)
ROI
+29%

История результатов

81% попаданий · 44/54

Рынок	Исход	Размер	Вход	Итог
Will Lambda's valuation hit (HIGH) $14B by October 31?	Yes	$134	92.2¢	Победа
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?	Yes	$195	97.9¢	Победа
Will Gemini Argon debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 60% or higher?	No	$203	86.8¢	Победа
Will Gemini Argon debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 55% or higher?	Yes	$288	76.3¢	Победа
Will Mistral Large 4 debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?	No	$62	87.8¢	Победа
Will the next Grok model (4.7+) debut at a score of at least 1450 by June 30, 2027?	No	$171	79.6¢	Победа
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	$114	72.3¢	Победа
Will any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$12	3.1¢	Победа
Will Mistral Large 4 debut at a score of at least 1450 by June 30, 2027?	No	$204	49.7¢	Победа
Will OpenAI have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?	No	$92	37.4¢	Победа
Will Meta have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	$102	54.9¢	Поражение
Will Moonshot be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of September 2026?	No	$146	19.4¢	Победа
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.625T by September 30?	Yes	$229	16.3¢	Поражение
Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	$98	85.4¢	Победа
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	$184	50.9¢	Победа
Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?	Yes	$355	75.6¢	Победа
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1490 and 1500?	No	$200	43.2¢	Победа
Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$204	56.0¢	Победа
Will Mistral Large 4 debut at a score of at least 1430 by June 30, 2027?	No	$183	19.9¢	Победа
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.425T by September 30?	Yes	$149	28.1¢	Поражение
Will Xiaomi be the third-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$4	74.0¢	Победа
Will Canva's valuation hit (LOW) $37.5B by December 31?	Yes	$230	64.5¢	Победа
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1530?	Yes	$507	67.5¢	Победа
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	$103	85.9¢	Победа
Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 40% or higher?	No	$108	32.8¢	Победа
Will Moonshot be the third-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?	No	$95	73.5¢	Победа
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$207	13.0¢	Победа
Will Google have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$205	33.5¢	Победа
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	$88	73.0¢	Победа
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.375T by September 30?	Yes	$96	47.8¢	Поражение
Will Moonshot be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?	No	$14	79.7¢	Победа
Will Google be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of August 2026?	No	$110	36.0¢	Поражение
Will Z.ai be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?	No	$48	73.0¢	Победа
Will Z.ai be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$123	61.8¢	Поражение
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $182.5B by October 31?	Yes	$503	83.3¢	Победа
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.875T by September 30?	Yes	$41	15.6¢	Поражение
Will Alibaba be the second-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$168	58.9¢	Поражение
Will Anthropic be the second-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?	No	$6	68.9¢	Победа
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1530 by December 31?	Yes	$46	28.8¢	Победа
Will Meta be the #2 AI lab at the end of August 2026?	No	$136	84.0¢	Поражение
Will Meta be the #2 AI lab at the end of August 2026?	Yes	$134	55.4¢	Победа
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	$141	69.8¢	Победа
Will OpenAI be the second-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$205	37.2¢	Победа
Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher?	No	$90	88.6¢	Победа
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $20B by December 31?	Yes	$265	88.5¢	Победа
Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$141	40.2¢	Победа
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$201	88.6¢	Победа
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1520 by December 31?	Yes	$16	52.0¢	Победа
Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$5	48.4¢	Победа
Will Canva's valuation hit (LOW) $35B by December 31?	Yes	$200	56.5¢	Победа

Will Lambda's valuation hit (HIGH) $14B by October 31?Победа
Yes$134 @ 92.2¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?Победа
Yes$195 @ 97.9¢
Will Gemini Argon debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 60% or higher?Победа
No$203 @ 86.8¢
Will Gemini Argon debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 55% or higher?Победа
Yes$288 @ 76.3¢
Will Mistral Large 4 debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?Победа
No$62 @ 87.8¢
Will the next Grok model (4.7+) debut at a score of at least 1450 by June 30, 2027?Победа
No$171 @ 79.6¢
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?Победа
Yes$114 @ 72.3¢
Will any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?Победа
Yes$12 @ 3.1¢
Will Mistral Large 4 debut at a score of at least 1450 by June 30, 2027?Победа
No$204 @ 49.7¢
Will OpenAI have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?Победа
No$92 @ 37.4¢
Will Meta have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?Поражение
Yes$102 @ 54.9¢
Will Moonshot be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of September 2026?Победа
No$146 @ 19.4¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.625T by September 30?Поражение
Yes$229 @ 16.3¢
Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026?Победа
No$98 @ 85.4¢
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?Победа
No$184 @ 50.9¢
Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?Победа
Yes$355 @ 75.6¢
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1490 and 1500?Победа
No$200 @ 43.2¢
Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?Победа
Yes$204 @ 56.0¢
Will Mistral Large 4 debut at a score of at least 1430 by June 30, 2027?Победа
No$183 @ 19.9¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.425T by September 30?Поражение
Yes$149 @ 28.1¢
Will Xiaomi be the third-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?Победа
Yes$4 @ 74.0¢
Will Canva's valuation hit (LOW) $37.5B by December 31?Победа
Yes$230 @ 64.5¢
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1530?Победа
Yes$507 @ 67.5¢
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026?Победа
Yes$103 @ 85.9¢
Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 40% or higher?Победа
No$108 @ 32.8¢
Will Moonshot be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?Победа
No$95 @ 73.5¢
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?Победа
Yes$207 @ 13.0¢
Will Google have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?Победа
Yes$205 @ 33.5¢
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?Победа
No$88 @ 73.0¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.375T by September 30?Поражение
Yes$96 @ 47.8¢
Will Moonshot be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?Победа
No$14 @ 79.7¢
Will Google be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of August 2026?Поражение
No$110 @ 36.0¢
Will Z.ai be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?Победа
No$48 @ 73.0¢
Will Z.ai be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?Поражение
Yes$123 @ 61.8¢
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $182.5B by October 31?Победа
Yes$503 @ 83.3¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.875T by September 30?Поражение
Yes$41 @ 15.6¢
Will Alibaba be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?Поражение
Yes$168 @ 58.9¢
Will Anthropic be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?Победа
No$6 @ 68.9¢
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1530 by December 31?Победа
Yes$46 @ 28.8¢
Will Meta be the #2 AI lab at the end of August 2026?Поражение
No$136 @ 84.0¢
Will Meta be the #2 AI lab at the end of August 2026?Победа
Yes$134 @ 55.4¢
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?Победа
Yes$141 @ 69.8¢
Will OpenAI be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?Победа
Yes$205 @ 37.2¢
Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher?Победа
No$90 @ 88.6¢
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $20B by December 31?Победа
Yes$265 @ 88.5¢
Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?Победа
Yes$141 @ 40.2¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026?Победа
Yes$201 @ 88.6¢
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1520 by December 31?Победа
Yes$16 @ 52.0¢
Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?Победа
Yes$5 @ 48.4¢
Will Canva's valuation hit (LOW) $35B by December 31?Победа
Yes$200 @ 56.5¢

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Текущие позиции

Рынок	Сфера	Исход	Размер	Вход
Will Google be the third-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Технологии	No	$175	43.6¢
Will Meta be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Технологии	No	$106	66.9¢
Will Z.ai be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Технологии	Yes	$49	26.2¢
Will Anthropic be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)?	Технологии	Yes	$37	58.8¢
Will Meta be the third-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Технологии	Yes	$23	6.4¢
Will Anthropic be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Технологии	Yes	$20	57.0¢
Will Meta be the third-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Технологии	Yes	$14	69.0¢
Will Meta be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)?	Технологии	Yes	$4	74.2¢

Will Google be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026?Технологии
No$175 @ 43.6¢
Will Meta be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026?Технологии
No$106 @ 66.9¢
Will Z.ai be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?Технологии
Yes$49 @ 26.2¢
Will Anthropic be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)?Технологии
Yes$37 @ 58.8¢
Will Meta be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026?Технологии
Yes$23 @ 6.4¢
Will Anthropic be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026?Технологии
Yes$20 @ 57.0¢
Will Meta be the third-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?Технологии
Yes$14 @ 69.0¢
Will Meta be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)?Технологии
Yes$4 @ 74.2¢