0x48f9…e61d

Профи

Эдж

+8.3pp

ROI

+89%

Доля побед

23% @ 14.5¢

Brier

0.118

Сделок

422

Ср. размер

$24

Динамика ROI

Специализация по сферам

Сфера	Попадания	ROI	Ставки
Политика	9% (2/23)	-83%	23
Other	41% (9/22)	+202%	22
Геополитика	0% (0/6)	-100%	6
Крипто	50% (1/2)	+25%	2

Политика23 ставки
Попадания
9% (2/23)
ROI
-83%
Other22 ставки
Попадания
41% (9/22)
ROI
+202%
Геополитика6 ставки
Попадания
0% (0/6)
ROI
-100%
Крипто2 ставки
Попадания
50% (1/2)
ROI
+25%

История результатов

23% попаданий · 12/53

Рынок	Исход	Размер	Вход	Итог
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	Yes	$166	7.2¢	Поражение
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$871	15.1¢	Поражение
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?	Yes	$123	49.0¢	Поражение
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the April Meeting?	No	$11	1.9¢	Поражение
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026?	Yes	$22	3.1¢	Поражение
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting?	No	$10	9.0¢	Поражение
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$15	3.7¢	Поражение
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?	No	$43	1.2¢	Поражение
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?	Yes	$142	5.6¢	Поражение
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	Yes	$413	6.7¢	Поражение
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	Yes	$273	49.3¢	Победа
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	No	$106	2.6¢	Поражение
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$510	72.1¢	Победа
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$57	18.2¢	Поражение
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March?	Yes	$1.2k	77.5¢	Победа
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	Yes	$54	9.0¢	Победа
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	$91	0.6¢	Поражение
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30?	Yes	$53	2.2¢	Поражение
Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026?	Yes	$16	2.2¢	Поражение
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	No	$27	12.3¢	Поражение
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	$8	0.3¢	Поражение
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	$1.1k	73.3¢	Победа
Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the June Meeting?	Yes	$8	3.3¢	Поражение
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$42	2.1¢	Поражение
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$40	8.0¢	Поражение
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	$835	75.9¢	Победа
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 19, 2026?	Yes	$3	11.8¢	Поражение
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	Yes	$27	13.4¢	Поражение
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?	Yes	$393	6.6¢	Поражение
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	$11	2.1¢	Поражение
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$485	5.5¢	Победа
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$68	4.2¢	Поражение
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$108	35.0¢	Победа
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$20	2.8¢	Поражение
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$10	6.1¢	Поражение
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	$89	89.0¢	Победа
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$2	1.6¢	Поражение
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	No	$769	74.2¢	Победа
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	Yes	$1	1.4¢	Поражение
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	No	$7	3.3¢	Поражение
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	Yes	$201	17.4¢	Победа
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	$14	0.9¢	Поражение
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	No	$5	2.3¢	Поражение
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	$18	1.2¢	Поражение
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	No	$290	4.0¢	Поражение
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the June Meeting?	Yes	$31	29.7¢	Поражение
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$152	10.1¢	Победа
Trump out as President by June 30?	Yes	$28	0.9¢	Поражение
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	Yes	$3	2.6¢	Поражение
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?	Yes	$50	9.0¢	Поражение

Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?Поражение
Yes$166 @ 7.2¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Поражение
Yes$871 @ 15.1¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?Поражение
Yes$123 @ 49.0¢
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the April Meeting?Поражение
No$11 @ 1.9¢
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026?Поражение
Yes$22 @ 3.1¢
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting?Поражение
No$10 @ 9.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Поражение
Yes$15 @ 3.7¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?Поражение
No$43 @ 1.2¢
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? Поражение
Yes$142 @ 5.6¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Поражение
Yes$413 @ 6.7¢
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Победа
Yes$273 @ 49.3¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?Поражение
No$106 @ 2.6¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Победа
No$510 @ 72.1¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Поражение
Yes$57 @ 18.2¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March?Победа
Yes$1.2k @ 77.5¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Победа
Yes$54 @ 9.0¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?Поражение
Yes$91 @ 0.6¢
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30?Поражение
Yes$53 @ 2.2¢
Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026?Поражение
Yes$16 @ 2.2¢
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?Поражение
No$27 @ 12.3¢
US forces enter Iran by April 30?Поражение
No$8 @ 0.3¢
US forces enter Iran by April 30?Победа
Yes$1.1k @ 73.3¢
Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the June Meeting?Поражение
Yes$8 @ 3.3¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?Поражение
Yes$42 @ 2.1¢
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026?Поражение
Yes$40 @ 8.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Победа
No$835 @ 75.9¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 19, 2026?Поражение
Yes$3 @ 11.8¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?Поражение
Yes$27 @ 13.4¢
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?Поражение
Yes$393 @ 6.6¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?Поражение
Yes$11 @ 2.1¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?Победа
Yes$485 @ 5.5¢
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?Поражение
Yes$68 @ 4.2¢
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Победа
Yes$108 @ 35.0¢
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026?Поражение
Yes$20 @ 2.8¢
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026?Поражение
Yes$10 @ 6.1¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?Победа
No$89 @ 89.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?Поражение
Yes$2 @ 1.6¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?Победа
No$769 @ 74.2¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?Поражение
Yes$1 @ 1.4¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?Поражение
No$7 @ 3.3¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?Победа
Yes$201 @ 17.4¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?Поражение
Yes$14 @ 0.9¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?Поражение
No$5 @ 2.3¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?Поражение
Yes$18 @ 1.2¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?Поражение
No$290 @ 4.0¢
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the June Meeting?Поражение
Yes$31 @ 29.7¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?Победа
Yes$152 @ 10.1¢
Trump out as President by June 30?Поражение
Yes$28 @ 0.9¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?Поражение
Yes$3 @ 2.6¢
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?Поражение
Yes$50 @ 9.0¢

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Текущие позиции

Рынок	Сфера	Исход	Размер	Вход
US recession by end of 2026?	Экономика	Yes	$341	16.3¢
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?	Политика	Yes	$250	6.2¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Политика	Yes	$207	13.7¢
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Политика	Yes	$177	10.9¢
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?	Политика	Yes	$120	11.8¢
Trump out as President before 2027?	Политика	Yes	$113	9.4¢
Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026?	Крипто	Yes	$113	3.2¢
US takes Panama Canal before 2027?	Политика	Yes	$108	11.3¢
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?	Политика	Yes	$102	51.0¢
Iran Nuke before 2027?	Политика	Yes	$101	8.5¢
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Политика	Yes	$73	2.2¢
US military draft authorized in 2026?	Политика	Yes	$64	5.4¢
Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?	Политика	Yes	$53	5.2¢
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Политика	Yes	$50	6.5¢
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by August 31?	—	Yes	$39	7.8¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	—	No	$35	35.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026?	Политика	Yes	$31	12.2¢
Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?	Политика	Yes	$26	7.5¢
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Политика	Yes	$24	8.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Политика	No	$18	45.0¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Политика	Yes	$15	1.5¢
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	Политика	Yes	$13	17.8¢
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?	Политика	Yes	$9	9.0¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	—	Yes	$8	2.7¢

US recession by end of 2026?Экономика
Yes$341 @ 16.3¢
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?Политика
Yes$250 @ 6.2¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Политика
Yes$207 @ 13.7¢
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?Политика
Yes$177 @ 10.9¢
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?Политика
Yes$120 @ 11.8¢
Trump out as President before 2027?Политика
Yes$113 @ 9.4¢
Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026?Крипто
Yes$113 @ 3.2¢
US takes Panama Canal before 2027?Политика
Yes$108 @ 11.3¢
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?Политика
Yes$102 @ 51.0¢
Iran Nuke before 2027?Политика
Yes$101 @ 8.5¢
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Политика
Yes$73 @ 2.2¢
US military draft authorized in 2026?Политика
Yes$64 @ 5.4¢
Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?Политика
Yes$53 @ 5.2¢
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?Политика
Yes$50 @ 6.5¢
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by August 31?—
Yes$39 @ 7.8¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?—
No$35 @ 35.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026?Политика
Yes$31 @ 12.2¢
Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?Политика
Yes$26 @ 7.5¢
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Политика
Yes$24 @ 8.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Политика
No$18 @ 45.0¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?Политика
Yes$15 @ 1.5¢
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?Политика
Yes$13 @ 17.8¢
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?Политика
Yes$9 @ 9.0¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?—
Yes$8 @ 2.7¢