0x477d…4f06

Профи

Эдж

+10.4pp

ROI

+32%

Доля побед

54% @ 43.2¢

Brier

0.162

Сделок

293

Ср. размер

Динамика ROI

Специализация по сферам

Сфера	Попадания	ROI	Ставки
Other	54% (15/28)	+67%	28
Политика	52% (13/25)	-21%	25
Крипто	50% (3/6)	+37%	6
Геополитика	67% (2/3)	-43%	3

Other28 ставки
Попадания
54% (15/28)
ROI
+67%
Политика25 ставки
Попадания
52% (13/25)
ROI
-21%
Крипто6 ставки
Попадания
50% (3/6)
ROI
+37%
Геополитика3 ставки
Попадания
67% (2/3)
ROI
-43%

История результатов

53% попаданий · 33/62

Рынок	Исход	Размер	Вход	Итог
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?	Yes	$1	8.0¢	Поражение
Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?	Yes	$1	75.0¢	Победа
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$1	59.0¢	Победа
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$21	18.0¢	Поражение
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	No	$2	74.2¢	Победа
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	Yes	$10	22.2¢	Поражение
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	$1	83.4¢	Победа
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$5	20.3¢	Поражение
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	$3	76.4¢	Победа
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	$2	16.0¢	Поражение
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?	No	$3	85.0¢	Победа
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	Yes	$2	13.5¢	Поражение
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	Yes	$10	17.4¢	Победа
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$30	47.5¢	Победа
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$24	18.7¢	Поражение
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	No	$2	70.5¢	Победа
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	$1	24.7¢	Победа
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	$3	1.5¢	Поражение
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	Yes	$2	5.7¢	Победа
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	$4	31.8¢	Поражение
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?	Yes	$4	79.4¢	Победа
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	No	$2	83.0¢	Победа
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	Yes	$5	7.7¢	Поражение
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	No	$2	71.1¢	Поражение
Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?	Yes	$2	34.5¢	Поражение
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?	No	$1	23.0¢	Победа
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?	Yes	$4	71.2¢	Поражение
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	$8	18.7¢	Поражение
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	$1	57.0¢	Победа
Netanyahu out by March 31?	Yes	$1	1.1¢	Поражение
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?	No	$1	35.0¢	Поражение
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?	Yes	$5	44.7¢	Победа
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?	Yes	$2	27.0¢	Поражение
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	$13	36.3¢	Победа
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$4	36.9¢	Поражение
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	$1	26.7¢	Поражение
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$34	55.6¢	Победа
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	$1	86.0¢	Победа
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	No	$4	22.0¢	Поражение
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	Yes	$11	78.5¢	Победа
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026?	Yes	$24	38.1¢	Победа
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	$2	50.5¢	Поражение
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$2	38.2¢	Победа
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	$3	78.7¢	Победа
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	Yes	$4	7.0¢	Поражение
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	$6	87.0¢	Победа
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?	Yes	$9	0.3¢	Поражение
Will Coinbase be accused of insider trading?	Yes	$2	3.6¢	Поражение
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?	Yes	$1	20.0¢	Поражение
Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?	Yes	$1	88.0¢	Победа

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?Поражение
Yes$1 @ 8.0¢
Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?Победа
Yes$1 @ 75.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Победа
No$1 @ 59.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Поражение
Yes$21 @ 18.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Победа
No$2 @ 74.2¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Поражение
Yes$10 @ 22.2¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Победа
No$1 @ 83.4¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Поражение
Yes$5 @ 20.3¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Победа
No$3 @ 76.4¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Поражение
Yes$2 @ 16.0¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?Победа
No$3 @ 85.0¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Поражение
Yes$2 @ 13.5¢
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Победа
Yes$10 @ 17.4¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Победа
No$30 @ 47.5¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Поражение
Yes$24 @ 18.7¢
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?Победа
No$2 @ 70.5¢
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?Победа
No$1 @ 24.7¢
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?Поражение
Yes$3 @ 1.5¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Победа
Yes$2 @ 5.7¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Поражение
Yes$4 @ 31.8¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?Победа
Yes$4 @ 79.4¢
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?Победа
No$2 @ 83.0¢
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?Поражение
Yes$5 @ 7.7¢
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?Поражение
No$2 @ 71.1¢
Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?Поражение
Yes$2 @ 34.5¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?Победа
No$1 @ 23.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?Поражение
Yes$4 @ 71.2¢
US forces enter Iran by April 30?Поражение
No$8 @ 18.7¢
US forces enter Iran by April 30?Победа
Yes$1 @ 57.0¢
Netanyahu out by March 31?Поражение
Yes$1 @ 1.1¢
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?Поражение
No$1 @ 35.0¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?Победа
Yes$5 @ 44.7¢
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?Поражение
Yes$2 @ 27.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?Победа
No$13 @ 36.3¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?Поражение
Yes$4 @ 36.9¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?Поражение
No$1 @ 26.7¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?Победа
Yes$34 @ 55.6¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Победа
No$1 @ 86.0¢
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?Поражение
No$4 @ 22.0¢
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?Победа
Yes$11 @ 78.5¢
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026?Победа
Yes$24 @ 38.1¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?Поражение
No$2 @ 50.5¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?Победа
Yes$2 @ 38.2¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?Победа
No$3 @ 78.7¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?Поражение
Yes$4 @ 7.0¢
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?Победа
No$6 @ 87.0¢
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?Поражение
Yes$9 @ 0.3¢
Will Coinbase be accused of insider trading?Поражение
Yes$2 @ 3.6¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?Поражение
Yes$1 @ 20.0¢
Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?Победа
Yes$1 @ 88.0¢

Недавние сделки

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Текущие позиции

Рынок	Сфера	Исход	Размер	Вход
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Политика	No	$22	69.0¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?	—	No	$13	97.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	—	No	$7	90.9¢
Will the Republican Party win the WA-04 House seat?	Политика	Yes	$6	82.3¢
Will the Republican Party win the NY-21 House seat?	Политика	Yes	$2	84.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the WA-04 House seat?	Политика	No	$2	93.4¢
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-23 House seat?	Политика	No	$2	70.5¢
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Наука	No	$2	91.4¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Политика	Yes	$2	33.0¢
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Политика	Yes	$2	10.8¢
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?	Политика	Yes	$1	2.7¢
Will the Republican Party win the KS-04 House seat?	Политика	Yes	$1	91.0¢
Will David Jolly be the Democratic nominee for Florida Governor?	Политика	Yes	$1	75.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	—	Yes	$1	54.0¢
Will the Republican Party win the TX-23 House seat?	Политика	Yes	$1	66.0¢
Kash Patel out by December 31?	Политика	Yes	$1	78.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?	—	No	$1	70.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the KS-04 House seat?	Политика	No	$1	92.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-21 House seat?	Политика	No	$1	83.0¢
Will the Republican Party win the OK-03 House seat?	Политика	Yes	$1	93.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the OK-03 House seat?	Политика	No	$1	93.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the MS-03 House seat?	Политика	No	$1	93.0¢
Will the Republican Party win the CA-01 House seat?	Политика	No	$1	93.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-52 House seat?	Политика	Yes	$1	93.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-01 House seat?	Политика	Yes	$1	93.0¢
Will the Republican Party win the CA-52 House seat?	Политика	No	$1	93.0¢
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?	Политика	No	$1	73.0¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?	Геополитика	No	$1	89.0¢

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Политика
No$22 @ 69.0¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?—
No$13 @ 97.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?—
No$7 @ 90.9¢
Will the Republican Party win the WA-04 House seat?Политика
Yes$6 @ 82.3¢
Will the Republican Party win the NY-21 House seat?Политика
Yes$2 @ 84.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the WA-04 House seat?Политика
No$2 @ 93.4¢
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-23 House seat?Политика
No$2 @ 70.5¢
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?Наука
No$2 @ 91.4¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Политика
Yes$2 @ 33.0¢
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026?Политика
Yes$2 @ 10.8¢
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?Политика
Yes$1 @ 2.7¢
Will the Republican Party win the KS-04 House seat?Политика
Yes$1 @ 91.0¢
Will David Jolly be the Democratic nominee for Florida Governor?Политика
Yes$1 @ 75.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?—
Yes$1 @ 54.0¢
Will the Republican Party win the TX-23 House seat?Политика
Yes$1 @ 66.0¢
Kash Patel out by December 31?Политика
Yes$1 @ 78.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?—
No$1 @ 70.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the KS-04 House seat?Политика
No$1 @ 92.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-21 House seat?Политика
No$1 @ 83.0¢
Will the Republican Party win the OK-03 House seat?Политика
Yes$1 @ 93.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the OK-03 House seat?Политика
No$1 @ 93.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the MS-03 House seat?Политика
No$1 @ 93.0¢
Will the Republican Party win the CA-01 House seat?Политика
No$1 @ 93.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-52 House seat?Политика
Yes$1 @ 93.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-01 House seat?Политика
Yes$1 @ 93.0¢
Will the Republican Party win the CA-52 House seat?Политика
No$1 @ 93.0¢
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?Политика
No$1 @ 73.0¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?Геополитика
No$1 @ 89.0¢