0x43b1…4e26

Прибыльный

Эдж

+28.4pp

ROI

+141%

Доля побед

53% @ 24.5¢

Brier

0.290

Сделок

102

Ср. размер

$17

Специализация по сферам

Сфера	Попадания	ROI	Ставки
Other	56% (9/16)	+282%	16
Технологии	14% (1/7)	-6%	7
Политика	50% (3/6)	+15%	6
Спорт	100% (1/1)	+146%	1

Other16 ставки
Попадания
56% (9/16)
ROI
+282%
Технологии7 ставки
Попадания
14% (1/7)
ROI
-6%
Политика6 ставки
Попадания
50% (3/6)
ROI
+15%
Спорт1 ставки
Попадания
100% (1/1)
ROI
+146%

История результатов

47% попаданий · 14/30

Рынок	Исход	Размер	Вход	Итог
Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$31	31.0¢	Поражение
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$24	12.0¢	Поражение
Will England win on 2026-07-11?	Yes	$18	39.7¢	Поражение
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	$12	4.2¢	Поражение
Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?	Yes	$9	19.5¢	Поражение
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$557	20.3¢	Победа
Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 22, 2026?	No	$23	7.7¢	Поражение
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	$381	26.7¢	Поражение
Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480?	No	$18	36.0¢	Победа
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	Yes	$8	20.0¢	Поражение
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	No	$67	13.0¢	Поражение
England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance	Argentina	$2	46.5¢	Победа
Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 21, 2026?	No	$48	23.6¢	Победа
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	$208	40.1¢	Победа
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	$5	5.0¢	Поражение
Moscow air traffic suspended by September 15?	Yes	$28	38.4¢	Поражение
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?	Yes	$20	40.0¢	Победа
Will voter turnout be 62% or higher in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	$35	11.2¢	Поражение
Will Everton FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw?	Yes	$1	29.0¢	Победа
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-04?	Yes	$1	67.0¢	Поражение
Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 23, 2026?	Yes	$10	5.0¢	Поражение
Ukraine vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5	Over	$1	67.0¢	Победа
Will voter turnout be between 59% and 62% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	$32	15.8¢	Победа
NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?	No	$98	65.0¢	Победа
Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?	No	$45	44.2¢	Победа
Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 24, 2026?	Yes	$12	1.9¢	Поражение
NATO downs another Russian drone by September 15?	Yes	$76	77.0¢	Победа
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5)	Legacy	$7	47.0¢	Победа
France vs. Spain: Team to Advance	France	$1	37.2¢	Поражение
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$20	40.6¢	Победа

Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?Поражение
Yes$31 @ 31.0¢
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?Поражение
Yes$24 @ 12.0¢
Will England win on 2026-07-11?Поражение
Yes$18 @ 39.7¢
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?Поражение
Yes$12 @ 4.2¢
Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?Поражение
Yes$9 @ 19.5¢
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?Победа
Yes$557 @ 20.3¢
Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 22, 2026?Поражение
No$23 @ 7.7¢
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Поражение
No$381 @ 26.7¢
Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480?Победа
No$18 @ 36.0¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?Поражение
Yes$8 @ 20.0¢
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?Поражение
No$67 @ 13.0¢
England vs. Argentina: Team to AdvanceПобеда
Argentina$2 @ 46.5¢
Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 21, 2026?Победа
No$48 @ 23.6¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Победа
No$208 @ 40.1¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Поражение
Yes$5 @ 5.0¢
Moscow air traffic suspended by September 15?Поражение
Yes$28 @ 38.4¢
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?Победа
Yes$20 @ 40.0¢
Will voter turnout be 62% or higher in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?Поражение
Yes$35 @ 11.2¢
Will Everton FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw?Победа
Yes$1 @ 29.0¢
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-04?Поражение
Yes$1 @ 67.0¢
Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 23, 2026?Поражение
Yes$10 @ 5.0¢
Ukraine vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5Победа
Over$1 @ 67.0¢
Will voter turnout be between 59% and 62% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?Победа
Yes$32 @ 15.8¢
NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?Победа
No$98 @ 65.0¢
Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?Победа
No$45 @ 44.2¢
Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 24, 2026?Поражение
Yes$12 @ 1.9¢
NATO downs another Russian drone by September 15?Победа
Yes$76 @ 77.0¢
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5)Победа
Legacy$7 @ 47.0¢
France vs. Spain: Team to AdvanceПоражение
France$1 @ 37.2¢
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Победа
Yes$20 @ 40.6¢

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Текущие позиции

Рынок	Сфера	Исход	Размер	Вход
Will Jumper launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Крипто	No	$115	28.8¢
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 15, 2026?	Геополитика	Yes	$114	21.7¢
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Политика	Yes	$91	70.0¢
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	Политика	Yes	$69	34.4¢
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Политика	Yes	$64	32.0¢
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?	Технологии	No	$53	53.0¢

Will Jumper launch a token by December 31, 2026?Крипто
No$115 @ 28.8¢
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 15, 2026?Геополитика
Yes$114 @ 21.7¢
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Политика
Yes$91 @ 70.0¢
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?Политика
Yes$69 @ 34.4¢
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Политика
Yes$64 @ 32.0¢
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?Технологии
No$53 @ 53.0¢