0x3e5d…a2e6

Прибыльный

Эдж

+15.8pp

ROI

+53%

Доля побед

62% @ 45.8¢

Brier

0.276

Сделок

Ср. размер

$55

Специализация по сферам

Сфера	Попадания	ROI	Ставки
Other	47% (7/15)	+75%	15
Политика	71% (5/7)	+1%	7
Спорт	100% (2/2)	+30%	2
Геополитика	100% (1/1)	+18%	1

Other15 ставки
Попадания
47% (7/15)
ROI
+75%
Политика7 ставки
Попадания
71% (5/7)
ROI
+1%
Спорт2 ставки
Попадания
100% (2/2)
ROI
+30%
Геополитика1 ставки
Попадания
100% (1/1)
ROI
+18%

История результатов

60% попаданий · 15/25

Рынок	Исход	Размер	Вход	Итог
Will the government shutdown end November 12?	Yes	$350	75.0¢	Поражение
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$100	70.0¢	Победа
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on March 7?	Yes	$3	8.0¢	Поражение
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	Yes	$408	18.3¢	Победа
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	$100	85.0¢	Победа
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	$101	80.0¢	Победа
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?	No	$53	68.0¢	Поражение
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	$100	83.0¢	Поражение
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?	No	$128	85.0¢	Победа
Nuggets vs. Grizzlies	Nuggets	$33	76.0¢	Победа
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	$50	79.1¢	Победа
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025?	Yes	$44	62.1¢	Победа
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$31	73.7¢	Победа
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?	Yes	$50	53.0¢	Поражение
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$25	60.0¢	Победа
Kings vs. Canadiens	Canadiens	$67	67.0¢	Поражение
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?	No	$100	82.0¢	Победа
Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election?	Yes	$500	69.0¢	Победа
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?	Yes	$100	68.5¢	Поражение
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?	No	$261	74.4¢	Победа
Grizzlies vs. Knicks	Grizzlies	$7	7.0¢	Поражение
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	$50	60.0¢	Победа
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	Yes	$17	30.0¢	Победа
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	$100	81.0¢	Поражение
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on March 6?	Yes	$80	4.7¢	Поражение

Will the government shutdown end November 12?Поражение
Yes$350 @ 75.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Победа
No$100 @ 70.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on March 7?Поражение
Yes$3 @ 8.0¢
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Победа
Yes$408 @ 18.3¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Победа
No$100 @ 85.0¢
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Победа
No$101 @ 80.0¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?Поражение
No$53 @ 68.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Поражение
No$100 @ 83.0¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?Победа
No$128 @ 85.0¢
Nuggets vs. GrizzliesПобеда
Nuggets$33 @ 76.0¢
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?Победа
Yes$50 @ 79.1¢
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025?Победа
Yes$44 @ 62.1¢
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Победа
Yes$31 @ 73.7¢
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?Поражение
Yes$50 @ 53.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Победа
Yes$25 @ 60.0¢
Kings vs. CanadiensПоражение
Canadiens$67 @ 67.0¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?Победа
No$100 @ 82.0¢
Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election?Победа
Yes$500 @ 69.0¢
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?Поражение
Yes$100 @ 68.5¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?Победа
No$261 @ 74.4¢
Grizzlies vs. KnicksПоражение
Grizzlies$7 @ 7.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?Победа
No$50 @ 60.0¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?Победа
Yes$17 @ 30.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Поражение
No$100 @ 81.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on March 6?Поражение
Yes$80 @ 4.7¢

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Текущие позиции

Рынок	Сфера	Исход	Размер	Вход
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Политика	Yes	$125	92.0¢
Iran leadership change by November 30?	Политика	No	$74	92.7¢
Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?	Политика	Yes	$50	79.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Политика	Yes	$50	71.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Политика	Yes	$50	65.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-15 House seat?	Политика	Yes	$9	87.0¢
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	Политика	No	$2	90.0¢

Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Политика
Yes$125 @ 92.0¢
Iran leadership change by November 30?Политика
No$74 @ 92.7¢
Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?Политика
Yes$50 @ 79.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Политика
Yes$50 @ 71.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Политика
Yes$50 @ 65.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-15 House seat?Политика
Yes$9 @ 87.0¢
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?Политика
No$2 @ 90.0¢