0x3927…b28e

Прибыльный

Эдж

+17.5pp

ROI

+182%

Доля побед

29% @ 11.5¢

Brier

0.226

Сделок

100

Ср. размер

$25

Динамика ROI

Специализация по сферам

Сфера	Попадания	ROI	Ставки
Other	10% (2/20)	-55%	20
Политика	18% (2/11)	+377%	11
Геополитика	0% (0/4)	-100%	4

Other20 ставки
Попадания
10% (2/20)
ROI
-55%
Политика11 ставки
Попадания
18% (2/11)
ROI
+377%
Геополитика4 ставки
Попадания
0% (0/4)
ROI
-100%

История результатов

11% попаданий · 4/35

Рынок	Исход	Размер	Вход	Итог
Will Iran target Iraq by October 31, 2026?	No	$1	8.3¢	Поражение
Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$25	5.0¢	Поражение
Hormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Yes	$6	0.6¢	Поражение
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in October?	Yes	$191	21.5¢	Поражение
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$498	13.9¢	Победа
Will the Trump and Xi handshake last 6–10 seconds during their summit?	Yes	$155	19.9¢	Поражение
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $94 on October 14?	No	$19	6.6¢	Поражение
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $94 on October 13?	No	$6	0.2¢	Поражение
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$17	10.0¢	Поражение
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in September?	No	$0	5.0¢	Поражение
Will the Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during their summit?	Yes	$10	10.0¢	Поражение
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	No	$216	11.6¢	Поражение
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $101 on September 21?	Yes	$12	4.8¢	Поражение
Will the Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during their summit?	Yes	$81	16.9¢	Поражение
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	$7	10.0¢	Поражение
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $96 on October 16?	No	$21	51.0¢	Поражение
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $98 on October 16?	No	$26	29.2¢	Поражение
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $98 on October 16?	Yes	$45	18.0¢	Победа
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $100 on September 21?	Yes	$7	2.9¢	Поражение
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$223	24.8¢	Поражение
Will Trump attend UFC 331?	Yes	$18	1.8¢	Поражение
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$20	2.8¢	Поражение
Israel closes its airspace by September 30?	Yes	$385	11.9¢	Победа
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $96 on October 15?	Yes	$6	11.9¢	Победа
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on October 12?	No	$29	31.0¢	Поражение
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?	Yes	$4	0.9¢	Поражение
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on October 13?	No	$5	0.1¢	Поражение
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $97 on October 15?	Yes	$16	14.8¢	Поражение
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $95 on October 15?	No	$11	39.0¢	Поражение
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $98 on October 15?	Yes	$8	1.9¢	Поражение
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on October 14?	No	$89	20.3¢	Поражение
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $95 on October 5?	Yes	$88	9.1¢	Поражение
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $94 on October 5?	Yes	$27	17.6¢	Поражение
Iran full airspace closure by September 30?	Yes	$40	3.8¢	Поражение
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on September 30?	No	$33	33.3¢	Поражение

Will Iran target Iraq by October 31, 2026?Поражение
No$1 @ 8.3¢
Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026?Поражение
Yes$25 @ 5.0¢
Hormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?Поражение
Yes$6 @ 0.6¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in October?Поражение
Yes$191 @ 21.5¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States by September 30, 2026?Победа
Yes$498 @ 13.9¢
Will the Trump and Xi handshake last 6–10 seconds during their summit?Поражение
Yes$155 @ 19.9¢
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $94 on October 14?Поражение
No$19 @ 6.6¢
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $94 on October 13?Поражение
No$6 @ 0.2¢
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by September 30, 2026?Поражение
Yes$17 @ 10.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in September?Поражение
No$0 @ 5.0¢
Will the Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during their summit?Поражение
Yes$10 @ 10.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?Поражение
No$216 @ 11.6¢
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $101 on September 21?Поражение
Yes$12 @ 4.8¢
Will the Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during their summit?Поражение
Yes$81 @ 16.9¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Поражение
Yes$7 @ 10.0¢
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $96 on October 16?Поражение
No$21 @ 51.0¢
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $98 on October 16?Поражение
No$26 @ 29.2¢
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $98 on October 16?Победа
Yes$45 @ 18.0¢
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $100 on September 21?Поражение
Yes$7 @ 2.9¢
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?Поражение
Yes$223 @ 24.8¢
Will Trump attend UFC 331?Поражение
Yes$18 @ 1.8¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026?Поражение
Yes$20 @ 2.8¢
Israel closes its airspace by September 30?Победа
Yes$385 @ 11.9¢
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $96 on October 15?Победа
Yes$6 @ 11.9¢
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on October 12?Поражение
No$29 @ 31.0¢
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?Поражение
Yes$4 @ 0.9¢
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on October 13?Поражение
No$5 @ 0.1¢
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $97 on October 15?Поражение
Yes$16 @ 14.8¢
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $95 on October 15?Поражение
No$11 @ 39.0¢
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $98 on October 15?Поражение
Yes$8 @ 1.9¢
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on October 14?Поражение
No$89 @ 20.3¢
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $95 on October 5?Поражение
Yes$88 @ 9.1¢
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $94 on October 5?Поражение
Yes$27 @ 17.6¢
Iran full airspace closure by September 30?Поражение
Yes$40 @ 3.8¢
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on September 30?Поражение
No$33 @ 33.3¢

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Текущие позиции

Рынок	Сфера	Исход	Размер	Вход
US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 8, 2026?	Политика	No	$80	27.6¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	—	Down	$24	49.2¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	—	Up	$20	48.0¢
Will Iran target Iraq by October 31, 2026?	Геополитика	No	$18	4.2¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	—	Up	$8	48.0¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	—	Up	$6	21.5¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	Политика	No	$5	0.7¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	—	Up	$4	1.8¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	—	Up	$2	11.0¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	—	Down	$2	0.1¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	—	Up	$1	1.0¢

US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 8, 2026?Политика
No$80 @ 27.6¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET—
Down$24 @ 49.2¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET—
Up$20 @ 48.0¢
Will Iran target Iraq by October 31, 2026?Геополитика
No$18 @ 4.2¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET—
Up$8 @ 48.0¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET—
Up$6 @ 21.5¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?Политика
No$5 @ 0.7¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET—
Up$4 @ 1.8¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET—
Up$2 @ 11.0¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET—
Down$2 @ 0.1¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET—
Up$1 @ 1.0¢