0x371c…c236

Прибыльный

Эдж

+6.3pp

ROI

+5%

Доля побед

40% @ 33.5¢

Brier

0.140

Сделок

3657

Ср. размер

$19

Динамика ROI

Специализация по сферам

Сфера	Попадания	ROI	Ставки
Other	41% (88/215)	+3%	215
Геополитика	23% (18/78)	+50%	78
Политика	28% (19/69)	-36%	69
Спорт	20% (1/5)	+17%	5

Other215 ставки
Попадания
41% (88/215)
ROI
+3%
Геополитика78 ставки
Попадания
23% (18/78)
ROI
+50%
Политика69 ставки
Попадания
28% (19/69)
ROI
-36%
Спорт5 ставки
Попадания
20% (1/5)
ROI
+17%

История результатов

34% попаданий · 126/367

Рынок	Исход	Размер	Вход	Итог
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	No	$11	5.7¢	Поражение
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	No	$10	2.4¢	Поражение
Will Iran target Oman by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$20	9.3¢	Поражение
Will Iran target Jordan by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$36	45.0¢	Поражение
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by October 31?	Yes	$95	25.6¢	Поражение
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	$20	40.0¢	Победа
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	No	$50	50.5¢	Победа
Will Yisrael Beiteinu win 6-7 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	$7	30.5¢	Победа
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	$34	24.7¢	Поражение
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$10	2.0¢	Поражение
Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$20	16.0¢	Поражение
Iran invades Kuwait by October 31?	Yes	$20	9.8¢	Поражение
Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by October 31?	Yes	$10	4.4¢	Поражение
Iran leadership change by October 31?	Yes	$6	12.0¢	Поражение
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	$4	25.2¢	Победа
Will Yisrael Beiteinu win fewer than 6 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	$23	38.0¢	Поражение
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?	Yes	$20	17.0¢	Поражение
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	Yes	$20	26.8¢	Победа
Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026?	No	$255	51.1¢	Победа
Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026?	Yes	$83	42.0¢	Поражение
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$25	4.5¢	Поражение
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 10, 2026?	Yes	$9	4.1¢	Поражение
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?	Yes	$300	73.0¢	Победа
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?	No	$60	43.8¢	Победа
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$60	41.0¢	Поражение
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$61	16.5¢	Поражение
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	$376	80.8¢	Победа
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?	No	$12	23.0¢	Поражение
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?	Yes	$1.2k	19.2¢	Победа
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	Yes	$73	14.2¢	Поражение
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?	Yes	$46	5.8¢	Поражение
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut on March 7, 2026?	No	$22	33.0¢	Поражение
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut on March 7, 2026?	Yes	$738	81.9¢	Победа
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	Yes	$111	9.7¢	Поражение
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$21	8.6¢	Поражение
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?	Yes	$190	11.2¢	Поражение
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	No	$60	47.3¢	Победа
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	$1.2k	56.2¢	Поражение
Will Iran target Ukraine by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$53	10.5¢	Поражение
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?	Yes	$688	30.2¢	Победа
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in July?	No	$10	19.0¢	Поражение
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 21?	No	$15	3.7¢	Поражение
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?	Yes	$63	16.3¢	Поражение
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	Yes	$78	24.0¢	Победа
Will another country recognize Somaliland by June 30?	Yes	$167	31.8¢	Поражение
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$21	5.2¢	Поражение
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 14, 2026?	Yes	$336	82.9¢	Победа
Kurds declare independence from Iran?	Yes	$98	4.8¢	Поражение
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?	Yes	$121	85.1¢	Победа
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$479	22.2¢	Поражение

US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?Поражение
No$11 @ 5.7¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?Поражение
No$10 @ 2.4¢
Will Iran target Oman by October 31, 2026?Поражение
Yes$20 @ 9.3¢
Will Iran target Jordan by October 31, 2026?Поражение
Yes$36 @ 45.0¢
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by October 31?Поражение
Yes$95 @ 25.6¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?Победа
No$20 @ 40.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?Победа
No$50 @ 50.5¢
Will Yisrael Beiteinu win 6-7 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?Победа
Yes$7 @ 30.5¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Поражение
No$34 @ 24.7¢
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?Поражение
Yes$10 @ 2.0¢
Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026?Поражение
Yes$20 @ 16.0¢
Iran invades Kuwait by October 31?Поражение
Yes$20 @ 9.8¢
Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by October 31?Поражение
Yes$10 @ 4.4¢
Iran leadership change by October 31?Поражение
Yes$6 @ 12.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Победа
No$4 @ 25.2¢
Will Yisrael Beiteinu win fewer than 6 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?Поражение
Yes$23 @ 38.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?Поражение
Yes$20 @ 17.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?Победа
Yes$20 @ 26.8¢
Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026?Победа
No$255 @ 51.1¢
Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026?Поражение
Yes$83 @ 42.0¢
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by June 30, 2026?Поражение
Yes$25 @ 4.5¢
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 10, 2026?Поражение
Yes$9 @ 4.1¢
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Победа
Yes$300 @ 73.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?Победа
No$60 @ 43.8¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?Поражение
Yes$60 @ 41.0¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026?Поражение
Yes$61 @ 16.5¢
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Победа
No$376 @ 80.8¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?Поражение
No$12 @ 23.0¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Победа
Yes$1.2k @ 19.2¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?Поражение
Yes$73 @ 14.2¢
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?Поражение
Yes$46 @ 5.8¢
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut on March 7, 2026?Поражение
No$22 @ 33.0¢
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut on March 7, 2026?Победа
Yes$738 @ 81.9¢
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?Поражение
Yes$111 @ 9.7¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Поражение
Yes$21 @ 8.6¢
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?Поражение
Yes$190 @ 11.2¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?Победа
No$60 @ 47.3¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?Поражение
Yes$1.2k @ 56.2¢
Will Iran target Ukraine by September 30, 2026?Поражение
Yes$53 @ 10.5¢
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?Победа
Yes$688 @ 30.2¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in July?Поражение
No$10 @ 19.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 21?Поражение
No$15 @ 3.7¢
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?Поражение
Yes$63 @ 16.3¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Победа
Yes$78 @ 24.0¢
Will another country recognize Somaliland by June 30?Поражение
Yes$167 @ 31.8¢
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Поражение
Yes$21 @ 5.2¢
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 14, 2026?Победа
Yes$336 @ 82.9¢
Kurds declare independence from Iran?Поражение
Yes$98 @ 4.8¢
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?Победа
Yes$121 @ 85.1¢
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?Поражение
Yes$479 @ 22.2¢

Недавние сделки

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Текущие позиции

Рынок	Сфера	Исход	Размер	Вход
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Политика	Yes	$193	6.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Геополитика	No	$178	33.9¢
Iran full airspace closure by December 31?	Геополитика	Yes	$178	31.1¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	Политика	No	$147	27.7¢
Iran full airspace closure by November 30, 2026?	Геополитика	Yes	$127	27.0¢
Mohammed Ghalibaf out as Speaker of Iran Parliament by December 31, 2026?	Политика	Yes	$88	15.2¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30, 2027?	Политика	Yes	$86	17.9¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	Геополитика	No	$73	17.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Политика	Yes	$70	17.2¢
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?	Политика	Yes	$63	12.8¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	Геополитика	No	$62	37.2¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	Политика	Yes	$57	19.3¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Политика	Yes	$53	18.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Политика	No	$50	50.5¢
Saudi troops fighting in Yemen by December 31, 2026?	Политика	Yes	$49	23.9¢
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?	Политика	Yes	$49	13.4¢
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by December 31, 2026?	Геополитика	Yes	$44	8.6¢
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by November 30?	Геополитика	Yes	$40	19.0¢
NATO x Russia military clash by November 30, 2026?	Политика	Yes	$40	8.8¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?	Геополитика	Yes	$39	7.5¢
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by October 31?	Геополитика	Yes	$32	15.3¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 5?	Геополитика	No	$30	14.0¢
Will Iran target Oman by October 31, 2026?	Геополитика	Yes	$30	6.7¢
Iran coup attempt by December 31, 2026?	Политика	Yes	$25	9.0¢
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31?	Геополитика	Yes	$25	10.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Геополитика	No	$22	38.1¢
Farsi Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?	Геополитика	Yes	$20	4.3¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2028?	Политика	Yes	$20	22.4¢
Will Iran target Oman by November 30, 2026?	Геополитика	Yes	$20	9.3¢
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through November 30?	Политика	No	$20	21.0¢

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Политика
Yes$193 @ 6.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?Геополитика
No$178 @ 33.9¢
Iran full airspace closure by December 31?Геополитика
Yes$178 @ 31.1¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?Политика
No$147 @ 27.7¢
Iran full airspace closure by November 30, 2026?Геополитика
Yes$127 @ 27.0¢
Mohammed Ghalibaf out as Speaker of Iran Parliament by December 31, 2026?Политика
Yes$88 @ 15.2¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30, 2027?Политика
Yes$86 @ 17.9¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?Геополитика
No$73 @ 17.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Политика
Yes$70 @ 17.2¢
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?Политика
Yes$63 @ 12.8¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?Геополитика
No$62 @ 37.2¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?Политика
Yes$57 @ 19.3¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Политика
Yes$53 @ 18.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?Политика
No$50 @ 50.5¢
Saudi troops fighting in Yemen by December 31, 2026?Политика
Yes$49 @ 23.9¢
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?Политика
Yes$49 @ 13.4¢
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by December 31, 2026?Геополитика
Yes$44 @ 8.6¢
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by November 30?Геополитика
Yes$40 @ 19.0¢
NATO x Russia military clash by November 30, 2026?Политика
Yes$40 @ 8.8¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?Геополитика
Yes$39 @ 7.5¢
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by October 31?Геополитика
Yes$32 @ 15.3¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 5?Геополитика
No$30 @ 14.0¢
Will Iran target Oman by October 31, 2026?Геополитика
Yes$30 @ 6.7¢
Iran coup attempt by December 31, 2026?Политика
Yes$25 @ 9.0¢
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31?Геополитика
Yes$25 @ 10.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Геополитика
No$22 @ 38.1¢
Farsi Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?Геополитика
Yes$20 @ 4.3¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2028?Политика
Yes$20 @ 22.4¢
Will Iran target Oman by November 30, 2026?Геополитика
Yes$20 @ 9.3¢
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through November 30?Политика
No$20 @ 21.0¢