0x33e2…3a1b

Прибыльный

Эдж

+13.3pp

ROI

+66%

Доля побед

60% @ 47.0¢

Brier

0.236

Сделок

292

Ср. размер

$115

Динамика ROI

Специализация по сферам

Сфера	Попадания	ROI	Ставки
Other	57% (55/96)	+54%	96
Политика	63% (44/70)	-11%	70
Технологии	83% (5/6)	+55%	6
Спорт	33% (2/6)	-19%	6
Геополитика	60% (3/5)	+4%	5
Культура	25% (1/4)	-6%	4
Крипто	50% (1/2)	+117%	2

Other96 ставки
Попадания
57% (55/96)
ROI
+54%
Политика70 ставки
Попадания
63% (44/70)
ROI
-11%
Технологии6 ставки
Попадания
83% (5/6)
ROI
+55%
Спорт6 ставки
Попадания
33% (2/6)
ROI
-19%
Геополитика5 ставки
Попадания
60% (3/5)
ROI
+4%
Культура4 ставки
Попадания
25% (1/4)
ROI
-6%
Крипто2 ставки
Попадания
50% (1/2)
ROI
+117%

История результатов

59% попаданий · 111/189

Рынок	Исход	Размер	Вход	Итог
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1520 by December 31?	Yes	$5	99.6¢	Победа
Sweden Parliamentary Election: Liberals Win Seats?	Yes	$82	82.0¢	Победа
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	No	$384	70.5¢	Победа
Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?	Yes	$224	74.0¢	Победа
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?	No	$2.6k	10.7¢	Победа
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?	Yes	$53	3.3¢	Поражение
Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?	Yes	$310	62.0¢	Победа
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?	No	$45	38.0¢	Поражение
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?	Yes	$486	20.9¢	Победа
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?	No	$1.2k	81.7¢	Победа
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?	Yes	$223	38.9¢	Поражение
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	No	$115	12.5¢	Поражение
Will Kai and Speed have between 30 and 49 total in-game deaths during their Minecraft marathon?	No	$349	71.6¢	Поражение
Will Kai and Speed have between 30 and 49 total in-game deaths during their Minecraft marathon?	Yes	$6	22.3¢	Победа
Will John Shulli be the Republican nominee for Senate in Delaware?	No	$214	85.6¢	Победа
Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?	Yes	$396	64.6¢	Победа
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$30	0.9¢	Поражение
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 25?	No	$30	1.5¢	Поражение
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	Yes	$163	10.8¢	Поражение
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	$995	32.6¢	Победа
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$721	11.3¢	Поражение
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	No	$2.7k	73.9¢	Победа
Will Tropical Storm Saudel make landfall in Japan?	Yes	$81	5.4¢	Поражение
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?	No	$402	33.0¢	Поражение
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?	Yes	$1.1k	25.8¢	Победа
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	Yes	$1.4k	14.0¢	Поражение
Will Michael Katz be the Republican nominee for Senate in Delaware?	Yes	$255	85.0¢	Победа
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in August?	No	$200	80.1¢	Победа
Will Typhoon Dolphin be a "Typhoon" at Japan landfall?	No	$37	32.3¢	Победа
Will Typhoon Dolphin be a "Typhoon" at Japan landfall?	Yes	$135	24.4¢	Поражение
Will Cindy Holscher win the 2026 Kansas Governor Democratic primary election?	Yes	$90	81.9¢	Победа
Will Maura Sullivan be the Democratic nominee for NH-01?	Yes	$754	83.6¢	Поражение
Will Anthony DiLorenzo be the Republican Nominee for NH-01?	Yes	$185	74.0¢	Победа
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?	No	$248	49.5¢	Победа
US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30?	No	$156	26.0¢	Победа
US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30?	Yes	$6.8k	73.2¢	Поражение
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?	Yes	$852	38.5¢	Поражение
Will Trump praise Xi Jinping in August?	Yes	$268	89.0¢	Победа
Will Amanda Janoo win the 2026 Vermont Governor Democratic primary election?	Yes	$29	70.5¢	Победа
Will Ethan Corson win the 2026 Kansas Governor Democratic primary election?	Yes	$13	11.9¢	Поражение
Will Mike Lindell win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?	No	$5	71.0¢	Победа
Will Jeff Beattie win the 2026 Hamilton East—Stoney Creek provincial by-election?	No	$3	65.0¢	Поражение
Will Jeff Beattie win the 2026 Hamilton East—Stoney Creek provincial by-election?	Yes	$491	45.2¢	Победа
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 23, 2026?	Yes	$90	7.7¢	Поражение
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	No	$247	1.3¢	Поражение
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026?	Yes	$239	26.6¢	Поражение
NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?	No	$54	67.1¢	Победа
NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$2.3k	34.6¢	Поражение
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	Yes	$13	3.0¢	Поражение
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?	Yes	$7	0.5¢	Поражение

Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1520 by December 31?Победа
Yes$5 @ 99.6¢
Sweden Parliamentary Election: Liberals Win Seats?Победа
Yes$82 @ 82.0¢
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?Победа
No$384 @ 70.5¢
Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?Победа
Yes$224 @ 74.0¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?Победа
No$2.6k @ 10.7¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?Поражение
Yes$53 @ 3.3¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?Победа
Yes$310 @ 62.0¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?Поражение
No$45 @ 38.0¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?Победа
Yes$486 @ 20.9¢
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?Победа
No$1.2k @ 81.7¢
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?Поражение
Yes$223 @ 38.9¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Поражение
No$115 @ 12.5¢
Will Kai and Speed have between 30 and 49 total in-game deaths during their Minecraft marathon?Поражение
No$349 @ 71.6¢
Will Kai and Speed have between 30 and 49 total in-game deaths during their Minecraft marathon?Победа
Yes$6 @ 22.3¢
Will John Shulli be the Republican nominee for Senate in Delaware?Победа
No$214 @ 85.6¢
Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?Победа
Yes$396 @ 64.6¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?Поражение
Yes$30 @ 0.9¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 25?Поражение
No$30 @ 1.5¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?Поражение
Yes$163 @ 10.8¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Победа
No$995 @ 32.6¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Поражение
Yes$721 @ 11.3¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?Победа
No$2.7k @ 73.9¢
Will Tropical Storm Saudel make landfall in Japan?Поражение
Yes$81 @ 5.4¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?Поражение
No$402 @ 33.0¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?Победа
Yes$1.1k @ 25.8¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Поражение
Yes$1.4k @ 14.0¢
Will Michael Katz be the Republican nominee for Senate in Delaware?Победа
Yes$255 @ 85.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in August?Победа
No$200 @ 80.1¢
Will Typhoon Dolphin be a "Typhoon" at Japan landfall?Победа
No$37 @ 32.3¢
Will Typhoon Dolphin be a "Typhoon" at Japan landfall?Поражение
Yes$135 @ 24.4¢
Will Cindy Holscher win the 2026 Kansas Governor Democratic primary election?Победа
Yes$90 @ 81.9¢
Will Maura Sullivan be the Democratic nominee for NH-01?Поражение
Yes$754 @ 83.6¢
Will Anthony DiLorenzo be the Republican Nominee for NH-01?Победа
Yes$185 @ 74.0¢
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?Победа
No$248 @ 49.5¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30?Победа
No$156 @ 26.0¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30?Поражение
Yes$6.8k @ 73.2¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?Поражение
Yes$852 @ 38.5¢
Will Trump praise Xi Jinping in August?Победа
Yes$268 @ 89.0¢
Will Amanda Janoo win the 2026 Vermont Governor Democratic primary election?Победа
Yes$29 @ 70.5¢
Will Ethan Corson win the 2026 Kansas Governor Democratic primary election?Поражение
Yes$13 @ 11.9¢
Will Mike Lindell win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?Победа
No$5 @ 71.0¢
Will Jeff Beattie win the 2026 Hamilton East—Stoney Creek provincial by-election?Поражение
No$3 @ 65.0¢
Will Jeff Beattie win the 2026 Hamilton East—Stoney Creek provincial by-election?Победа
Yes$491 @ 45.2¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 23, 2026?Поражение
Yes$90 @ 7.7¢
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?Поражение
No$247 @ 1.3¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026?Поражение
Yes$239 @ 26.6¢
NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?Победа
No$54 @ 67.1¢
NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?Поражение
Yes$2.3k @ 34.6¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?Поражение
Yes$13 @ 3.0¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?Поражение
Yes$7 @ 0.5¢

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Текущие позиции

Рынок	Сфера	Исход	Размер	Вход
US recession by end of 2026?	Экономика	No	$3.9k	80.6¢
Israel closes its airspace by September 30?	Политика	Yes	$1.2k	96.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Политика	No	$1.1k	85.2¢
Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes?	—	No	$637	95.8¢
Saudi Arabia military action against Iran by September 30, 2026?	—	No	$446	93.0¢
Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?	Политика	Yes	$440	88.0¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31?	—	Yes	$440	88.0¢
Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?	Политика	No	$416	88.0¢
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Политика	Yes	$375	75.0¢
Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2026?	—	No	$298	89.6¢
Will the iPhone 18 Pro cost at least $1300?	—	No	$269	99.6¢
Criminal charges in Pfizer building structural failure by December 31?	—	No	$196	79.0¢
Another Iranian Ambassador expelled by October 31, 2026?	—	No	$191	63.5¢
Will Carolyn Parrish win the 2026 Mississauga mayoral election?	—	Yes	$179	51.3¢
Will the iPhone 18 Pro cost at least $1150?	—	Yes	$167	96.3¢
Will the iPhone 18 Pro cost at least $1100?	—	Yes	$135	99.9¢
Will anyone insult Donald Trump during the 2026 Emmy Awards?	—	No	$98	55.0¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 22?	—	Yes	$68	31.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in September?	—	Yes	$18	39.0¢
Will the iPhone 18 Pro cost at least $1200?	—	No	$15	99.0¢
Will Dipika Damerla win the 2026 Mississauga mayoral election?	—	Yes	$3	1.6¢
US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by September 30?	—	Yes	$1	10.0¢

US recession by end of 2026?Экономика
No$3.9k @ 80.6¢
Israel closes its airspace by September 30?Политика
Yes$1.2k @ 96.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Политика
No$1.1k @ 85.2¢
Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes?—
No$637 @ 95.8¢
Saudi Arabia military action against Iran by September 30, 2026?—
No$446 @ 93.0¢
Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?Политика
Yes$440 @ 88.0¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31?—
Yes$440 @ 88.0¢
Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?Политика
No$416 @ 88.0¢
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Политика
Yes$375 @ 75.0¢
Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2026?—
No$298 @ 89.6¢
Will the iPhone 18 Pro cost at least $1300?—
No$269 @ 99.6¢
Criminal charges in Pfizer building structural failure by December 31?—
No$196 @ 79.0¢
Another Iranian Ambassador expelled by October 31, 2026?—
No$191 @ 63.5¢
Will Carolyn Parrish win the 2026 Mississauga mayoral election?—
Yes$179 @ 51.3¢
Will the iPhone 18 Pro cost at least $1150?—
Yes$167 @ 96.3¢
Will the iPhone 18 Pro cost at least $1100?—
Yes$135 @ 99.9¢
Will anyone insult Donald Trump during the 2026 Emmy Awards?—
No$98 @ 55.0¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 22?—
Yes$68 @ 31.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in September?—
Yes$18 @ 39.0¢
Will the iPhone 18 Pro cost at least $1200?—
No$15 @ 99.0¢
Will Dipika Damerla win the 2026 Mississauga mayoral election?—
Yes$3 @ 1.6¢
US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by September 30?—
Yes$1 @ 10.0¢