0x328d…f7a9

Профи

Эдж

+7.8pp

ROI

+16%

Доля побед

70% @ 62.4¢

Brier

0.127

Сделок

1516

Ср. размер

$375

Динамика ROI

Специализация по сферам

Сфера	Попадания	ROI	Ставки
Политика	75% (36/48)	+19%	48
Other	70% (33/47)	+23%	47
Геополитика	75% (6/8)	+7%	8

Политика48 ставки
Попадания
75% (36/48)
ROI
+19%
Other47 ставки
Попадания
70% (33/47)
ROI
+23%
Геополитика8 ставки
Попадания
75% (6/8)
ROI
+7%

История результатов

73% попаданий · 75/103

Рынок	Исход	Размер	Вход	Итог
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	No	$23.1k	84.7¢	Победа
Will Warsh say "Dissent" during July Press Conference?	Yes	$203	34.0¢	Поражение
Will 150-174 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?	Yes	$361	19.6¢	Поражение
Will 175-199 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?	Yes	$66	28.9¢	Поражение
Will 200-224 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?	Yes	$13	29.2¢	Поражение
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$137	37.7¢	Поражение
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	$5.5k	46.0¢	Победа
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	$26.6k	82.9¢	Победа
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	$4.0k	45.1¢	Победа
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	$6.9k	61.2¢	Победа
Will the Democratic Party win the OH-07 House seat?	Yes	$160	80.0¢	Победа
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	$5.7k	65.7¢	Победа
Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	Yes	$87	87.0¢	Поражение
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	$4.7k	49.5¢	Победа
Epstein client list released in 2025?	No	$5.3k	83.4¢	Победа
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	No	$667	78.5¢	Победа
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?	Yes	$95	50.0¢	Поражение
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?	Yes	$7.2k	68.6¢	Победа
Will 225 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?	No	$103	71.0¢	Победа
Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?	No	$4.0k	88.0¢	Победа
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$5.3k	43.2¢	Победа
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$2.6k	83.5¢	Победа
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?	No	$10.4k	85.1¢	Победа
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?	No	$12.1k	61.9¢	Победа
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	Yes	$12.5k	78.0¢	Победа
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	Yes	$339	65.9¢	Победа
Will Trump meet with Machado by January 16?	No	$58	6.0¢	Поражение
Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?	Yes	$1.0k	21.6¢	Поражение
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?	No	$2.0k	81.0¢	Победа
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?	Yes	$139	19.3¢	Поражение
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	No	$5.2k	54.4¢	Поражение
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	$517	86.2¢	Победа
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	$3.0k	15.3¢	Поражение
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?	No	$3	54.0¢	Победа
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?	No	$3.0k	75.7¢	Победа
Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more?	Yes	$3.9k	87.7¢	Победа
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28?	Yes	$1.6k	70.7¢	Победа
US government shutdown Saturday?	Yes	$52.2k	76.5¢	Победа
Will Khamenei visit Russia by March 31?	No	$94	84.9¢	Победа
Will no government funding bill be passed by January 31, 2026?	Yes	$436	69.0¢	Победа
Will António José Seguro win the second round by 20–30%?	Yes	$27	27.0¢	Поражение
Will Luís Marques Mendes qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?	No	$5.3k	87.0¢	Победа
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	$22.7k	70.5¢	Победа
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?	Yes	$328	5.7¢	Поражение
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?	Yes	$4	39.0¢	Поражение
Will António José Seguro win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?	Yes	$7	55.0¢	Победа
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	No	$33.7k	82.2¢	Победа
Iran full airspace closure by July 15?	No	$5.7k	83.9¢	Победа
Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential election be at least 50%?	No	$1.3k	30.7¢	Поражение
Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential election be at least 50%?	Yes	$1.2k	77.5¢	Победа

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?Победа
No$23.1k @ 84.7¢
Will Warsh say "Dissent" during July Press Conference?Поражение
Yes$203 @ 34.0¢
Will 150-174 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?Поражение
Yes$361 @ 19.6¢
Will 175-199 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?Поражение
Yes$66 @ 28.9¢
Will 200-224 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?Поражение
Yes$13 @ 29.2¢
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?Поражение
Yes$137 @ 37.7¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseПобеда
Yes$5.5k @ 46.0¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Победа
Yes$26.6k @ 82.9¢
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Победа
Yes$4.0k @ 45.1¢
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Победа
Yes$6.9k @ 61.2¢
Will the Democratic Party win the OH-07 House seat?Победа
Yes$160 @ 80.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Победа
Yes$5.7k @ 65.7¢
Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?Поражение
Yes$87 @ 87.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Победа
Yes$4.7k @ 49.5¢
Epstein client list released in 2025?Победа
No$5.3k @ 83.4¢
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?Победа
No$667 @ 78.5¢
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?Поражение
Yes$95 @ 50.0¢
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?Победа
Yes$7.2k @ 68.6¢
Will 225 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?Победа
No$103 @ 71.0¢
Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?Победа
No$4.0k @ 88.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Победа
Yes$5.3k @ 43.2¢
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Победа
Yes$2.6k @ 83.5¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?Победа
No$10.4k @ 85.1¢
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?Победа
No$12.1k @ 61.9¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Победа
Yes$12.5k @ 78.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Победа
Yes$339 @ 65.9¢
Will Trump meet with Machado by January 16?Поражение
No$58 @ 6.0¢
Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?Поражение
Yes$1.0k @ 21.6¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?Победа
No$2.0k @ 81.0¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?Поражение
Yes$139 @ 19.3¢
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Поражение
No$5.2k @ 54.4¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Победа
No$517 @ 86.2¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Поражение
Yes$3.0k @ 15.3¢
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?Победа
No$3 @ 54.0¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?Победа
No$3.0k @ 75.7¢
Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more?Победа
Yes$3.9k @ 87.7¢
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28?Победа
Yes$1.6k @ 70.7¢
US government shutdown Saturday?Победа
Yes$52.2k @ 76.5¢
Will Khamenei visit Russia by March 31?Победа
No$94 @ 84.9¢
Will no government funding bill be passed by January 31, 2026?Победа
Yes$436 @ 69.0¢
Will António José Seguro win the second round by 20–30%?Поражение
Yes$27 @ 27.0¢
Will Luís Marques Mendes qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?Победа
No$5.3k @ 87.0¢
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Победа
Yes$22.7k @ 70.5¢
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?Поражение
Yes$328 @ 5.7¢
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?Поражение
Yes$4 @ 39.0¢
Will António José Seguro win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?Победа
Yes$7 @ 55.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Победа
No$33.7k @ 82.2¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 15?Победа
No$5.7k @ 83.9¢
Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential election be at least 50%?Поражение
No$1.3k @ 30.7¢
Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential election be at least 50%?Победа
Yes$1.2k @ 77.5¢

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Текущие позиции

Рынок	Сфера	Исход	Размер	Вход
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Политика	No	$27.1k	68.8¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Политика	No	$23.7k	82.8¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Политика	No	$19.9k	72.3¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Геополитика	No	$14.3k	66.7¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	Политика	No	$11.3k	79.4¢
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Политика	No	$10.3k	84.9¢
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Политика	Yes	$8.3k	81.5¢
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	Политика	No	$5.5k	82.9¢
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Политика	Yes	$2.4k	9.4¢
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Политика	Yes	$2.1k	11.4¢
Will David Eby be the next Premier of British Columbia?	Политика	No	$600	80.0¢
Will Lorne Doerkson be the next Premier of British Columbia?	Политика	Yes	$314	78.5¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Политика
No$27.1k @ 68.8¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Политика
No$23.7k @ 82.8¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Политика
No$19.9k @ 72.3¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?Геополитика
No$14.3k @ 66.7¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?Политика
No$11.3k @ 79.4¢
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?Политика
No$10.3k @ 84.9¢
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Политика
Yes$8.3k @ 81.5¢
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?Политика
No$5.5k @ 82.9¢
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Политика
Yes$2.4k @ 9.4¢
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Политика
Yes$2.1k @ 11.4¢
Will David Eby be the next Premier of British Columbia?Политика
No$600 @ 80.0¢
Will Lorne Doerkson be the next Premier of British Columbia?Политика
Yes$314 @ 78.5¢