0x3007…763a

Профи

Эдж

+15.0pp

ROI

+29%

Доля побед

74% @ 58.7¢

Brier

0.202

Сделок

377

Ср. размер

$173

Специализация по сферам

Сфера	Попадания	ROI	Ставки
Other	77% (23/30)	+44%	30
Политика	75% (12/16)	+19%	16
Спорт	0% (0/4)	-100%	4
Технологии	100% (1/1)	+38%	1
Геополитика	100% (1/1)	+54%	1
Экономика	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Культура	100% (1/1)	+37%	1

Other30 ставки
Попадания
77% (23/30)
ROI
+44%
Политика16 ставки
Попадания
75% (12/16)
ROI
+19%
Спорт4 ставки
Попадания
0% (0/4)
ROI
-100%
Технологии1 ставки
Попадания
100% (1/1)
ROI
+38%
Геополитика1 ставки
Попадания
100% (1/1)
ROI
+54%
Экономика1 ставки
Попадания
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Культура1 ставки
Попадания
100% (1/1)
ROI
+37%

История результатов

70% попаданий · 38/54

Рынок	Исход	Размер	Вход	Итог
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$205	13.2¢	Поражение
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?	No	$400	82.4¢	Победа
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	No	$300	75.0¢	Поражение
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	Yes	$508	59.5¢	Победа
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	$100	15.8¢	Поражение
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$101	81.0¢	Победа
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?	Yes	$100	72.1¢	Победа
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?	No	$2.3k	76.2¢	Победа
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	Yes	$3.1k	44.6¢	Победа
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	$3.2k	57.3¢	Победа
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?	Yes	$51	35.0¢	Поражение
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$206	7.5¢	Поражение
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 7, 2026?	Yes	$101	77.0¢	Поражение
Will no one dissent the July Fed decision?	Yes	$154	40.4¢	Поражение
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?	No	$1.2k	76.8¢	Победа
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	No	$400	80.9¢	Поражение
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	Yes	$200	59.0¢	Победа
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	No	$4.8k	68.5¢	Победа
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	No	$150	66.0¢	Победа
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?	Yes	$1.3k	62.5¢	Победа
Iran full airspace closure by July 15?	No	$2.1k	83.7¢	Победа
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?	No	$200	75.3¢	Победа
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?	Yes	$100	51.1¢	Поражение
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	$100	65.0¢	Победа
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?	No	$500	70.2¢	Поражение
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	$610	65.9¢	Поражение
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$103	36.0¢	Победа
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$4.1k	77.8¢	Победа
US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30?	Yes	$200	64.0¢	Поражение
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	$2.4k	58.1¢	Победа
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?	No	$5.8k	59.3¢	Победа
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?	No	$200	78.5¢	Победа
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$6.2k	62.2¢	Поражение
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?	Yes	$2.2k	87.1¢	Победа
Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?	No	$404	72.5¢	Победа
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?	No	$200	84.3¢	Победа
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?	No	$400	39.5¢	Победа
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	$1000	72.4¢	Победа
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?	No	$800	72.4¢	Поражение
Iran full airspace closure by August 31?	No	$300	69.2¢	Победа
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	No	$200	55.0¢	Победа
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$703	87.8¢	Победа
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?	Yes	$5.0k	70.8¢	Победа
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	$900	74.0¢	Победа
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?	No	$200	86.5¢	Победа
NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?	No	$100	68.8¢	Победа
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	No	$2.0k	78.7¢	Победа
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$1.0k	3.2¢	Поражение
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$1.7k	1.6¢	Поражение
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	Yes	$2.3k	75.4¢	Победа

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Поражение
Yes$205 @ 13.2¢
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?Победа
No$400 @ 82.4¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Поражение
No$300 @ 75.0¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Победа
Yes$508 @ 59.5¢
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Поражение
Yes$100 @ 15.8¢
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?Победа
Yes$101 @ 81.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?Победа
Yes$100 @ 72.1¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?Победа
No$2.3k @ 76.2¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?Победа
Yes$3.1k @ 44.6¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Победа
No$3.2k @ 57.3¢
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?Поражение
Yes$51 @ 35.0¢
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Поражение
Yes$206 @ 7.5¢
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 7, 2026?Поражение
Yes$101 @ 77.0¢
Will no one dissent the July Fed decision?Поражение
Yes$154 @ 40.4¢
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Победа
No$1.2k @ 76.8¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Поражение
No$400 @ 80.9¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Победа
Yes$200 @ 59.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?Победа
No$4.8k @ 68.5¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Победа
No$150 @ 66.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?Победа
Yes$1.3k @ 62.5¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 15?Победа
No$2.1k @ 83.7¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?Победа
No$200 @ 75.3¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?Поражение
Yes$100 @ 51.1¢
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?Победа
Yes$100 @ 65.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?Поражение
No$500 @ 70.2¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Поражение
No$610 @ 65.9¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Победа
Yes$103 @ 36.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Победа
Yes$4.1k @ 77.8¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30?Поражение
Yes$200 @ 64.0¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Победа
No$2.4k @ 58.1¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?Победа
No$5.8k @ 59.3¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?Победа
No$200 @ 78.5¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Поражение
Yes$6.2k @ 62.2¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?Победа
Yes$2.2k @ 87.1¢
Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?Победа
No$404 @ 72.5¢
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?Победа
No$200 @ 84.3¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?Победа
No$400 @ 39.5¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Победа
No$1000 @ 72.4¢
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?Поражение
No$800 @ 72.4¢
Iran full airspace closure by August 31?Победа
No$300 @ 69.2¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?Победа
No$200 @ 55.0¢
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Победа
Yes$703 @ 87.8¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?Победа
Yes$5.0k @ 70.8¢
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?Победа
Yes$900 @ 74.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?Победа
No$200 @ 86.5¢
NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?Победа
No$100 @ 68.8¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?Победа
No$2.0k @ 78.7¢
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Поражение
Yes$1.0k @ 3.2¢
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Поражение
Yes$1.7k @ 1.6¢
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?Победа
Yes$2.3k @ 75.4¢

Недавние сделки

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Текущие позиции

Рынок	Сфера	Исход	Размер	Вход
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?	Политика	No	$16.0k	37.4¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	—	No	$13.1k	64.2¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	—	Yes	$7.5k	65.7¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?	Геополитика	No	$6.9k	77.1¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	—	No	$6.5k	59.3¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	—	No	$6.2k	44.8¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Политика	No	$6.2k	60.1¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	—	No	$4.7k	63.3¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Политика	No	$4.3k	80.7¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?	—	No	$4.2k	66.9¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	—	Yes	$3.9k	75.2¢
Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31?	Политика	No	$3.5k	51.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	—	No	$3.0k	35.8¢
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?	—	Yes	$2.6k	70.3¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Геополитика	No	$2.5k	61.6¢
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?	Политика	Yes	$2.2k	72.4¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by March 31, 2027?	—	No	$2.1k	41.6¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Политика	Yes	$2.0k	66.8¢
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	—	No	$1.3k	77.6¢
Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?	Политика	No	$1.1k	71.0¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	—	Yes	$1000	57.8¢
Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026?	Геополитика	Yes	$900	66.2¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	Политика	No	$800	76.5¢
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?	Политика	No	$760	71.7¢
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	Технологии	No	$750	71.0¢
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?	—	No	$500	58.6¢

Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?Политика
No$16.0k @ 37.4¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?—
No$13.1k @ 64.2¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?—
Yes$7.5k @ 65.7¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?Геополитика
No$6.9k @ 77.1¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?—
No$6.5k @ 59.3¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?—
No$6.2k @ 44.8¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Политика
No$6.2k @ 60.1¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?—
No$4.7k @ 63.3¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Политика
No$4.3k @ 80.7¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?—
No$4.2k @ 66.9¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?—
Yes$3.9k @ 75.2¢
Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31?Политика
No$3.5k @ 51.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?—
No$3.0k @ 35.8¢
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?—
Yes$2.6k @ 70.3¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?Геополитика
No$2.5k @ 61.6¢
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?Политика
Yes$2.2k @ 72.4¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by March 31, 2027?—
No$2.1k @ 41.6¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Политика
Yes$2.0k @ 66.8¢
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?—
No$1.3k @ 77.6¢
Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?Политика
No$1.1k @ 71.0¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?—
Yes$1000 @ 57.8¢
Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026?Геополитика
Yes$900 @ 66.2¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?Политика
No$800 @ 76.5¢
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?Политика
No$760 @ 71.7¢
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?Технологии
No$750 @ 71.0¢
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?—
No$500 @ 58.6¢