0x2574…144b

Прибыльный

Эдж

+21.4pp

ROI

+58%

Доля побед

65% @ 43.3¢

Brier

0.239

Сделок

136

Ср. размер

$46

Динамика ROI

Специализация по сферам

Сфера	Попадания	ROI	Ставки
Политика	62% (21/34)	+73%	34
Other	52% (12/23)	+29%	23
Спорт	71% (5/7)	+20%	7
Геополитика	67% (4/6)	+57%	6
Технологии	100% (2/2)	+118%	2
Наука	100% (2/2)	+39%	2
Экономика	0% (0/2)	-100%	2
Культура	100% (1/1)	+30%	1

Политика34 ставки
Попадания
62% (21/34)
ROI
+73%
Other23 ставки
Попадания
52% (12/23)
ROI
+29%
Спорт7 ставки
Попадания
71% (5/7)
ROI
+20%
Геополитика6 ставки
Попадания
67% (4/6)
ROI
+57%
Технологии2 ставки
Попадания
100% (2/2)
ROI
+118%
Наука2 ставки
Попадания
100% (2/2)
ROI
+39%
Экономика2 ставки
Попадания
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%
Культура1 ставки
Попадания
100% (1/1)
ROI
+30%

История результатов

61% попаданий · 47/77

Рынок	Исход	Размер	Вход	Итог
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	$200	42.0¢	Поражение
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	$54	53.8¢	Поражение
Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	Yes	$200	88.7¢	Победа
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-06?	Yes	$10	36.0¢	Победа
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?	No	$10	0.3¢	Поражение
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	$50	83.0¢	Победа
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	$10	9.6¢	Поражение
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	No	$153	54.0¢	Поражение
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 285M by August 31?	Yes	$61	61.0¢	Поражение
Lula x Flávio Bolsonaro debate before second round?	No	$308	36.5¢	Поражение
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$250	73.4¢	Победа
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$14	19.0¢	Поражение
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	$5	3.9¢	Поражение
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$14	69.0¢	Победа
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	Yes	$15	7.0¢	Поражение
Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Yes	$23	60.0¢	Победа
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	Yes	$124	0.6¢	Поражение
Will Alexandre Kalil win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?	Yes	$72	18.6¢	Поражение
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$28	9.1¢	Поражение
Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$51	43.0¢	Победа
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	$50	34.0¢	Победа
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?	Yes	$34	17.0¢	Поражение
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	$120	61.8¢	Победа
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$50	71.2¢	Победа
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$85	84.1¢	Победа
Portugal vs. Spain: Team to Advance	Portugal	$15	34.0¢	Поражение
Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	$123	29.1¢	Поражение
Will Partido Liberal (PL) hold the most seats as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election?	Yes	$234	83.3¢	Победа
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	$225	81.9¢	Победа
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	Yes	$53	89.0¢	Поражение
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	$200	61.0¢	Победа
Will any AI model reach 1550 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$26	52.6¢	Победа
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	No	$200	44.1¢	Поражение
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	No	$28	56.3¢	Победа
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	No	$153	83.0¢	Победа
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	$15	83.0¢	Победа
Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?	No	$40	4.5¢	Победа
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	No	$100	76.0¢	Победа
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw?	No	$20	88.0¢	Победа
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	$50	57.0¢	Победа
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	$92	46.0¢	Поражение
Will "Whalefall" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 8m?	Yes	$156	77.0¢	Победа
Will Renan Santos finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	$101	83.0¢	Победа
United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advance	Belgium	$10	48.0¢	Победа
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$103	85.4¢	Победа
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	$260	9.5¢	Победа
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	$123	73.0¢	Победа
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$20	32.8¢	Поражение
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?	No	$26	26.5¢	Победа
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	No	$150	79.0¢	Победа

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?Поражение
Yes$200 @ 42.0¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Поражение
Yes$54 @ 53.8¢
Will there be no Hormuz agreement?Победа
Yes$200 @ 88.7¢
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-06?Победа
Yes$10 @ 36.0¢
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Поражение
No$10 @ 0.3¢
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Победа
No$50 @ 83.0¢
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Поражение
Yes$10 @ 9.6¢
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?Поражение
No$153 @ 54.0¢
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 285M by August 31?Поражение
Yes$61 @ 61.0¢
Lula x Flávio Bolsonaro debate before second round?Поражение
No$308 @ 36.5¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Победа
No$250 @ 73.4¢
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Поражение
Yes$14 @ 19.0¢
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Поражение
Yes$5 @ 3.9¢
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by August 31, 2026?Победа
Yes$14 @ 69.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?Поражение
Yes$15 @ 7.0¢
Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?Победа
Yes$23 @ 60.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Поражение
Yes$124 @ 0.6¢
Will Alexandre Kalil win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?Поражение
Yes$72 @ 18.6¢
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Поражение
Yes$28 @ 9.1¢
Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?Победа
Yes$51 @ 43.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?Победа
No$50 @ 34.0¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?Поражение
Yes$34 @ 17.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Победа
No$120 @ 61.8¢
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Победа
Yes$50 @ 71.2¢
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Победа
No$85 @ 84.1¢
Portugal vs. Spain: Team to AdvanceПоражение
Portugal$15 @ 34.0¢
Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Поражение
Yes$123 @ 29.1¢
Will Partido Liberal (PL) hold the most seats as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election?Победа
Yes$234 @ 83.3¢
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?Победа
No$225 @ 81.9¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?Поражение
Yes$53 @ 89.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Победа
No$200 @ 61.0¢
Will any AI model reach 1550 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?Победа
Yes$26 @ 52.6¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Поражение
No$200 @ 44.1¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?Победа
No$28 @ 56.3¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Победа
No$153 @ 83.0¢
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?Победа
Yes$15 @ 83.0¢
Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?Победа
No$40 @ 4.5¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?Победа
No$100 @ 76.0¢
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw?Победа
No$20 @ 88.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?Победа
No$50 @ 57.0¢
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?Поражение
No$92 @ 46.0¢
Will "Whalefall" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 8m?Победа
Yes$156 @ 77.0¢
Will Renan Santos finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Победа
No$101 @ 83.0¢
United States vs. Belgium: Team to AdvanceПобеда
Belgium$10 @ 48.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Победа
Yes$103 @ 85.4¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Победа
Yes$260 @ 9.5¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Победа
No$123 @ 73.0¢
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Поражение
Yes$20 @ 32.8¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?Победа
No$26 @ 26.5¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?Победа
No$150 @ 79.0¢

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Текущие позиции

Рынок	Сфера	Исход	Размер	Вход
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Политика	Yes	$200	64.0¢
Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	Политика	No	$200	82.1¢
Will CoreWeave announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029?	Технологии	Yes	$200	29.7¢
US imports Russian diesel by December 31?	Политика	Yes	$200	79.0¢
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.80% before 2027?	Экономика	Yes	$200	67.1¢
Will Democrats win white women in the midterms?	Политика	Yes	$200	62.0¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Политика	Yes	$200	42.0¢
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	Политика	Yes	$200	41.3¢
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.70% before 2027?	Экономика	Yes	$194	64.8¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2028?	Политика	No	$154	77.0¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Политика	Yes	$86	51.0¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Политика	Yes	$81	57.6¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Политика	Yes	$72	28.8¢
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Политика	Yes	$60	2.6¢
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Политика	Yes	$18	0.1¢

Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Политика
Yes$200 @ 64.0¢
Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?Политика
No$200 @ 82.1¢
Will CoreWeave announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029?Технологии
Yes$200 @ 29.7¢
US imports Russian diesel by December 31?Политика
Yes$200 @ 79.0¢
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.80% before 2027?Экономика
Yes$200 @ 67.1¢
Will Democrats win white women in the midterms?Политика
Yes$200 @ 62.0¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?Политика
Yes$200 @ 42.0¢
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?Политика
Yes$200 @ 41.3¢
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.70% before 2027?Экономика
Yes$194 @ 64.8¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2028?Политика
No$154 @ 77.0¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseПолитика
Yes$86 @ 51.0¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Политика
Yes$81 @ 57.6¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Политика
Yes$72 @ 28.8¢
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Политика
Yes$60 @ 2.6¢
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Политика
Yes$18 @ 0.1¢