0x233b…1f2c

Профи

Эдж

+4.9pp

ROI

+35%

Доля побед

46% @ 40.9¢

Brier

0.217

Сделок

589

Ср. размер

$196

Динамика ROI

Специализация по сферам

Сфера	Попадания	ROI	Ставки
Политика	46% (59/127)	+13%	127
Other	62% (56/91)	+102%	91
Геополитика	33% (8/24)	-37%	24
Технологии	73% (11/15)	+18%	15
Спорт	43% (3/7)	-42%	7
Крипто	67% (2/3)	+37%	3
Наука	0% (0/2)	-100%	2
Экономика	100% (2/2)	+22%	2

Политика127 ставки
Попадания
46% (59/127)
ROI
+13%
Other91 ставки
Попадания
62% (56/91)
ROI
+102%
Геополитика24 ставки
Попадания
33% (8/24)
ROI
-37%
Технологии15 ставки
Попадания
73% (11/15)
ROI
+18%
Спорт7 ставки
Попадания
43% (3/7)
ROI
-42%
Крипто3 ставки
Попадания
67% (2/3)
ROI
+37%
Наука2 ставки
Попадания
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%
Экономика2 ставки
Попадания
100% (2/2)
ROI
+22%

История результатов

52% попаданий · 141/271

Рынок	Исход	Размер	Вход	Итог
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?	No	$483	63.5¢	Победа
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026?	Yes	$250	22.6¢	Поражение
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?	Yes	$250	10.6¢	Поражение
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman?	Yes	$400	34.4¢	Поражение
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?	Yes	$500	67.7¢	Победа
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30?	Yes	$250	21.6¢	Победа
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$214	12.2¢	Поражение
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?	Yes	$250	74.0¢	Победа
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?	No	$22	25.9¢	Поражение
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?	Yes	$3	6.0¢	Поражение
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	$400	85.9¢	Победа
Ebola case in the US by June 30?	Yes	$613	44.4¢	Поражение
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$699	17.1¢	Поражение
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$1.9k	45.8¢	Поражение
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30?	Yes	$250	40.1¢	Поражение
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?	Yes	$250	29.0¢	Победа
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	Yes	$220	58.0¢	Поражение
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama?	Yes	$404	71.6¢	Победа
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	Yes	$650	45.2¢	Победа
Will "OpenAI" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of September 21?	Yes	$11	22.1¢	Поражение
Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in July 2026?	Yes	$207	87.6¢	Победа
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	Yes	$522	29.2¢	Победа
UFC 329: Robert Whittaker vs. Nikita Krylov (Light Heavyweight, Prelims)	Robert Whittaker	$102	56.0¢	Победа
Will John Ternus be the next CEO of Apple?	Yes	$250	68.0¢	Победа
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	$157	50.6¢	Поражение
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026?	No	$250	60.7¢	Победа
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026?	Yes	$250	67.5¢	Поражение
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 17, 2026?	Yes	$250	18.5¢	Поражение
Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30?	Yes	$258	14.6¢	Поражение
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?	Yes	$56	3.4¢	Поражение
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	$745	23.3¢	Поражение
Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$600	38.1¢	Поражение
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	Yes	$633	32.8¢	Победа
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?	Yes	$220	5.5¢	Поражение
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30?	Yes	$171	42.7¢	Поражение
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?	No	$350	23.5¢	Поражение
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?	Yes	$848	84.8¢	Победа
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	Yes	$590	24.1¢	Поражение
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	Yes	$493	34.7¢	Победа
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on April 24, 2026?	No	$250	89.4¢	Победа
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?	Yes	$268	15.9¢	Поражение
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?	Yes	$387	27.0¢	Поражение
Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?	No	$304	63.9¢	Поражение
Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?	Yes	$205	85.5¢	Победа
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	Yes	$151	66.8¢	Поражение
US bank failure by June 30?	Yes	$251	88.0¢	Победа
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	$541	11.5¢	Поражение
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?	No	$350	40.3¢	Победа
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?	Yes	$812	25.8¢	Поражение
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$359	32.6¢	Победа

Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?Победа
No$483 @ 63.5¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026?Поражение
Yes$250 @ 22.6¢
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?Поражение
Yes$250 @ 10.6¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman?Поражение
Yes$400 @ 34.4¢
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Победа
Yes$500 @ 67.7¢
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30?Победа
Yes$250 @ 21.6¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?Поражение
Yes$214 @ 12.2¢
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?Победа
Yes$250 @ 74.0¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Поражение
No$22 @ 25.9¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?Поражение
Yes$3 @ 6.0¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?Победа
No$400 @ 85.9¢
Ebola case in the US by June 30?Поражение
Yes$613 @ 44.4¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Поражение
Yes$699 @ 17.1¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Поражение
Yes$1.9k @ 45.8¢
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30?Поражение
Yes$250 @ 40.1¢
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?Победа
Yes$250 @ 29.0¢
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?Поражение
Yes$220 @ 58.0¢
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama?Победа
Yes$404 @ 71.6¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Победа
Yes$650 @ 45.2¢
Will "OpenAI" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of September 21?Поражение
Yes$11 @ 22.1¢
Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in July 2026?Победа
Yes$207 @ 87.6¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Победа
Yes$522 @ 29.2¢
UFC 329: Robert Whittaker vs. Nikita Krylov (Light Heavyweight, Prelims)Победа
Robert Whittaker$102 @ 56.0¢
Will John Ternus be the next CEO of Apple?Победа
Yes$250 @ 68.0¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Поражение
Yes$157 @ 50.6¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026?Победа
No$250 @ 60.7¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026?Поражение
Yes$250 @ 67.5¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 17, 2026?Поражение
Yes$250 @ 18.5¢
Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30?Поражение
Yes$258 @ 14.6¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?Поражение
Yes$56 @ 3.4¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Поражение
Yes$745 @ 23.3¢
Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026?Поражение
Yes$600 @ 38.1¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Победа
Yes$633 @ 32.8¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?Поражение
Yes$220 @ 5.5¢
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30?Поражение
Yes$171 @ 42.7¢
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?Поражение
No$350 @ 23.5¢
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?Победа
Yes$848 @ 84.8¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Поражение
Yes$590 @ 24.1¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Победа
Yes$493 @ 34.7¢
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on April 24, 2026?Победа
No$250 @ 89.4¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?Поражение
Yes$268 @ 15.9¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?Поражение
Yes$387 @ 27.0¢
Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?Поражение
No$304 @ 63.9¢
Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?Победа
Yes$205 @ 85.5¢
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?Поражение
Yes$151 @ 66.8¢
US bank failure by June 30?Победа
Yes$251 @ 88.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Поражение
Yes$541 @ 11.5¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?Победа
No$350 @ 40.3¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?Поражение
Yes$812 @ 25.8¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Победа
No$359 @ 32.6¢

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Текущие позиции

Рынок	Сфера	Исход	Размер	Вход
Will OpenAI have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?	Технологии	Yes	$286	80.6¢
Will Anthropic be the second-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?	Технологии	Yes	$77	70.2¢

Will OpenAI have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?Технологии
Yes$286 @ 80.6¢
Will Anthropic be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?Технологии
Yes$77 @ 70.2¢