0x1ee9…197f

Профи

Эдж

+5.4pp

ROI

+16%

Доля побед

44% @ 38.7¢

Brier

0.148

Сделок

2524

Ср. размер

$130

Динамика ROI

Специализация по сферам

Сфера	Попадания	ROI	Ставки
Other	47% (252/537)	+4%	537
Политика	43% (208/481)	+14%	481
Технологии	47% (90/193)	+14%	193
Геополитика	53% (48/90)	+21%	90
Спорт	30% (18/61)	+31%	61
Крипто	32% (8/25)	+56%	25
Культура	55% (6/11)	+14%	11
Экономика	30% (3/10)	-9%	10
Бизнес	0% (0/5)	-100%	5
Наука	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other537 ставки
Попадания
47% (252/537)
ROI
+4%
Политика481 ставки
Попадания
43% (208/481)
ROI
+14%
Технологии193 ставки
Попадания
47% (90/193)
ROI
+14%
Геополитика90 ставки
Попадания
53% (48/90)
ROI
+21%
Спорт61 ставки
Попадания
30% (18/61)
ROI
+31%
Крипто25 ставки
Попадания
32% (8/25)
ROI
+56%
Культура11 ставки
Попадания
55% (6/11)
ROI
+14%
Экономика10 ставки
Попадания
30% (3/10)
ROI
-9%
Бизнес5 ставки
Попадания
0% (0/5)
ROI
-100%
Наука1 ставки
Попадания
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

История результатов

45% попаданий · 633/1414

Рынок	Исход	Размер	Вход	Итог
Will Joint List win 8-9 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	$65	34.5¢	Поражение
Will Glean's valuation hit (LOW) $5.5B by October 31?	No	$105	72.7¢	Победа
Will The Joint List win 6.5-7.5% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	$44	67.0¢	Победа
Will The Joint List win 6.5-7.5% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	$77	35.9¢	Поражение
Michigan Senate favorite on November 2?	El-Sayed	$846	76.4¢	Победа
Will Left Party (V) win between 5% and 7% of all valid votes?	No	$1.3k	61.7¢	Победа
Will Left Party (V) win between 5% and 7% of all valid votes?	Yes	$508	34.3¢	Поражение
Will Shas win 10-11 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	$162	81.0¢	Победа
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?	No	$52	37.7¢	Поражение
Will the next Muse model family be named Muse Watermelon?	No	$1.0k	73.5¢	Победа
Will the next Muse model family be named Muse Watermelon?	Yes	$257	9.8¢	Поражение
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$20	5.0¢	Поражение
Will claude-opus-5-max be the best AI model on August 17, 2026?	Yes	$307	67.0¢	Победа
Will CDU win less than 17% of all valid second votes?	Yes	$30	11.0¢	Поражение
LAPTOP airdrop to $TRUMP holders by September 30?	No	$260	51.9¢	Победа
Will voter turnout be between 50% and 53% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	$49	22.7¢	Поражение
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from West Virginia be between 400,000 and 450,000?	No	$958	77.9¢	Победа
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from West Virginia be between 400,000 and 450,000?	Yes	$71	13.0¢	Поражение
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Wyoming be between 210,000 and 230,000?	Yes	$1	4.2¢	Поражение
Will the Left Party (V) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	Yes	$1	0.1¢	Поражение
Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?	No	$20	8.3¢	Поражение
Will the next Mythos-Class model debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$51	77.0¢	Победа
Will there be no Meta Watermelon model release by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$1	0.1¢	Поражение
Will the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin have between 148 and 152 seats after the 2026 election?	Yes	$8	6.3¢	Поражение
Will the National Party win 30-34 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?	Yes	$73	14.3¢	Поражение
Will Shri Thanedar win the MI-13 Democratic primary by less than 4%?	Yes	$1	0.6¢	Поражение
Will Linke win 35-39 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	Yes	$121	19.9¢	Поражение
Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1490 by December 31, 2026?	No	$4	21.0¢	Победа
Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1490 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$368	12.4¢	Поражение
Will Together win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	$1.8k	22.4¢	Поражение
Will Together win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	$5.4k	70.6¢	Победа
Will Anduril's valuation hit (LOW) $92.5B by September 30?	No	$115	61.1¢	Победа
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 IN-05 House election by 0%-3%?	Yes	$20	11.1¢	Поражение
Will Taylor Swift's monthly listeners figure hit 110m by October 31?	No	$55	15.2¢	Победа
Will Taylor Swift's monthly listeners figure hit 110m by October 31?	Yes	$162	69.3¢	Поражение
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7?	No	$1	68.0¢	Поражение
Will SPD win less than 5% of all valid second votes?	No	$1	76.0¢	Победа
Will Linke win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	Yes	$5	15.1¢	Поражение
Will the opposition bloc win the Israeli election by 3-4 seats?	No	$13	67.0¢	Победа
Will Canva's valuation hit (LOW) $40B by December 31?	No	$8	14.6¢	Поражение
Will Canva's valuation hit (LOW) $40B by December 31?	Yes	$292	68.9¢	Победа
Will Trump meet with Sam Altman by October 31, 2026?	No	$19	88.0¢	Победа
Will Trump meet with Sam Altman by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$11	13.8¢	Поражение
Will Mistral Large 4 debut at a score of at least 1450 by June 30, 2027?	No	$114	33.0¢	Победа
Will Together win 8-10 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	$3	8.0¢	Поражение
Sweden Parliamentary Election: MP Over/Under 7%?	Under	$70	54.0¢	Победа
Will Meta's Watermelon model debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 40% or higher?	No	$22	12.0¢	Поражение
Will the Student List win the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election by less than 2%?	Yes	$8	6.0¢	Поражение
Will the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin have fewer than 143 seats after the 2026 election?	No	$306	79.5¢	Победа
Will the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin have fewer than 143 seats after the 2026 election?	Yes	$40	21.7¢	Поражение

Will Joint List win 8-9 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?Поражение
Yes$65 @ 34.5¢
Will Glean's valuation hit (LOW) $5.5B by October 31?Победа
No$105 @ 72.7¢
Will The Joint List win 6.5-7.5% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?Победа
No$44 @ 67.0¢
Will The Joint List win 6.5-7.5% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?Поражение
Yes$77 @ 35.9¢
Michigan Senate favorite on November 2?Победа
El-Sayed$846 @ 76.4¢
Will Left Party (V) win between 5% and 7% of all valid votes?Победа
No$1.3k @ 61.7¢
Will Left Party (V) win between 5% and 7% of all valid votes?Поражение
Yes$508 @ 34.3¢
Will Shas win 10-11 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?Победа
No$162 @ 81.0¢
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?Поражение
No$52 @ 37.7¢
Will the next Muse model family be named Muse Watermelon?Победа
No$1.0k @ 73.5¢
Will the next Muse model family be named Muse Watermelon?Поражение
Yes$257 @ 9.8¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?Поражение
Yes$20 @ 5.0¢
Will claude-opus-5-max be the best AI model on August 17, 2026?Победа
Yes$307 @ 67.0¢
Will CDU win less than 17% of all valid second votes?Поражение
Yes$30 @ 11.0¢
LAPTOP airdrop to $TRUMP holders by September 30?Победа
No$260 @ 51.9¢
Will voter turnout be between 50% and 53% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?Поражение
Yes$49 @ 22.7¢
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from West Virginia be between 400,000 and 450,000?Победа
No$958 @ 77.9¢
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from West Virginia be between 400,000 and 450,000?Поражение
Yes$71 @ 13.0¢
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Wyoming be between 210,000 and 230,000?Поражение
Yes$1 @ 4.2¢
Will the Left Party (V) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?Поражение
Yes$1 @ 0.1¢
Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?Поражение
No$20 @ 8.3¢
Will the next Mythos-Class model debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?Победа
Yes$51 @ 77.0¢
Will there be no Meta Watermelon model release by October 31, 2026?Поражение
Yes$1 @ 0.1¢
Will the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin have between 148 and 152 seats after the 2026 election?Поражение
Yes$8 @ 6.3¢
Will the National Party win 30-34 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?Поражение
Yes$73 @ 14.3¢
Will Shri Thanedar win the MI-13 Democratic primary by less than 4%?Поражение
Yes$1 @ 0.6¢
Will Linke win 35-39 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?Поражение
Yes$121 @ 19.9¢
Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1490 by December 31, 2026?Победа
No$4 @ 21.0¢
Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1490 by December 31, 2026?Поражение
Yes$368 @ 12.4¢
Will Together win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Поражение
No$1.8k @ 22.4¢
Will Together win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Победа
Yes$5.4k @ 70.6¢
Will Anduril's valuation hit (LOW) $92.5B by September 30?Победа
No$115 @ 61.1¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 IN-05 House election by 0%-3%?Поражение
Yes$20 @ 11.1¢
Will Taylor Swift's monthly listeners figure hit 110m by October 31?Победа
No$55 @ 15.2¢
Will Taylor Swift's monthly listeners figure hit 110m by October 31?Поражение
Yes$162 @ 69.3¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7?Поражение
No$1 @ 68.0¢
Will SPD win less than 5% of all valid second votes?Победа
No$1 @ 76.0¢
Will Linke win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?Поражение
Yes$5 @ 15.1¢
Will the opposition bloc win the Israeli election by 3-4 seats?Победа
No$13 @ 67.0¢
Will Canva's valuation hit (LOW) $40B by December 31?Поражение
No$8 @ 14.6¢
Will Canva's valuation hit (LOW) $40B by December 31?Победа
Yes$292 @ 68.9¢
Will Trump meet with Sam Altman by October 31, 2026?Победа
No$19 @ 88.0¢
Will Trump meet with Sam Altman by October 31, 2026?Поражение
Yes$11 @ 13.8¢
Will Mistral Large 4 debut at a score of at least 1450 by June 30, 2027?Победа
No$114 @ 33.0¢
Will Together win 8-10 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?Поражение
Yes$3 @ 8.0¢
Sweden Parliamentary Election: MP Over/Under 7%?Победа
Under$70 @ 54.0¢
Will Meta's Watermelon model debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 40% or higher?Поражение
No$22 @ 12.0¢
Will the Student List win the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election by less than 2%?Поражение
Yes$8 @ 6.0¢
Will the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin have fewer than 143 seats after the 2026 election?Победа
No$306 @ 79.5¢
Will the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin have fewer than 143 seats after the 2026 election?Поражение
Yes$40 @ 21.7¢

Недавние сделки

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Текущие позиции

Рынок	Сфера	Исход	Размер	Вход
Will Broad Front (FA) win the second-most seats in Ávila in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Политика	No	$4.4k	98.7¢
Will ERC win 6-7 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Политика	No	$4.3k	73.8¢
Israeli Knesset election annulled?	Политика	No	$3.9k	87.2¢
Democratic 2028 presidential odds hit 75% by December 31?	Политика	No	$3.3k	89.3¢
Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) be in the next Swedish government?	Политика	No	$3.3k	87.6¢
Denmark snap election called by December 31?	Политика	No	$3.1k	92.6¢
Will Broad Front (FA) win fewer than 6 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Политика	No	$3.1k	89.7¢
Will Anthropic have the highest private market valuation at the end of November?	Технологии	Yes	$3.0k	86.5¢
US recession by end of 2026?	Экономика	No	$2.9k	78.3¢
Spain General Election: SALF wins a seat?	Политика	No	$2.8k	77.6¢
Will PSOE win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Политика	No	$2.5k	85.0¢
Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Labour + Green?	Политика	No	$2.4k	76.1¢
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?	Политика	No	$2.2k	67.5¢
Will Anduril's valuation hit (LOW) $65B by December 31?	Other	No	$2.0k	84.1¢
Will Mohammed bin Salman attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Политика	No	$1.8k	89.3¢
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?	Политика	No	$1.8k	79.9¢
StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Крипто	No	$1.7k	90.7¢
Will Gemini Carbon debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 55% or higher?	Технологии	Yes	$1.7k	90.0¢
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announce a Presidential run before 2028?	Политика	Yes	$1.6k	60.9¢
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?	Экономика	No	$1.6k	89.8¢
Trump renames ICE to NICE by December 31?	Политика	No	$1.5k	74.6¢
Will Vox win the most seats in Asturias in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Политика	No	$1.4k	87.1¢
Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include National + ACT + NZF?	Политика	No	$1.4k	48.4¢
France accuses foreign country of provoking unrest by November 30?	Политика	No	$1.2k	69.4¢
Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $150B by December 31?	Other	No	$1.1k	69.3¢
Will Dan S. Sullivan win the 2026 Alaska Senate first round by 3%-6%?	Политика	No	$1.1k	87.6¢
Will Broad Front (FA) win 6-8 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Политика	No	$1.0k	74.1¢
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announce a presidential run by June 30, 2027?	Политика	No	$1.0k	41.0¢
Trump Jr.'s Republican nomination odds hit 4% by December 31?	Политика	No	$995	77.5¢
Democratic 2028 presidential odds dip to 55% by March 31?	Политика	No	$988	73.1¢

Will Broad Front (FA) win the second-most seats in Ávila in the 2026 Spanish general election?Политика
No$4.4k @ 98.7¢
Will ERC win 6-7 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?Политика
No$4.3k @ 73.8¢
Israeli Knesset election annulled?Политика
No$3.9k @ 87.2¢
Democratic 2028 presidential odds hit 75% by December 31?Политика
No$3.3k @ 89.3¢
Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) be in the next Swedish government?Политика
No$3.3k @ 87.6¢
Denmark snap election called by December 31?Политика
No$3.1k @ 92.6¢
Will Broad Front (FA) win fewer than 6 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?Политика
No$3.1k @ 89.7¢
Will Anthropic have the highest private market valuation at the end of November?Технологии
Yes$3.0k @ 86.5¢
US recession by end of 2026?Экономика
No$2.9k @ 78.3¢
Spain General Election: SALF wins a seat?Политика
No$2.8k @ 77.6¢
Will PSOE win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?Политика
No$2.5k @ 85.0¢
Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include Labour + Green?Политика
No$2.4k @ 76.1¢
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?Политика
No$2.2k @ 67.5¢
Will Anduril's valuation hit (LOW) $65B by December 31?Other
No$2.0k @ 84.1¢
Will Mohammed bin Salman attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Политика
No$1.8k @ 89.3¢
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?Политика
No$1.8k @ 79.9¢
StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch?Крипто
No$1.7k @ 90.7¢
Will Gemini Carbon debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 55% or higher?Технологии
Yes$1.7k @ 90.0¢
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announce a Presidential run before 2028?Политика
Yes$1.6k @ 60.9¢
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?Экономика
No$1.6k @ 89.8¢
Trump renames ICE to NICE by December 31?Политика
No$1.5k @ 74.6¢
Will Vox win the most seats in Asturias in the 2026 Spanish general election?Политика
No$1.4k @ 87.1¢
Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include National + ACT + NZF?Политика
No$1.4k @ 48.4¢
France accuses foreign country of provoking unrest by November 30?Политика
No$1.2k @ 69.4¢
Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $150B by December 31?Other
No$1.1k @ 69.3¢
Will Dan S. Sullivan win the 2026 Alaska Senate first round by 3%-6%?Политика
No$1.1k @ 87.6¢
Will Broad Front (FA) win 6-8 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?Политика
No$1.0k @ 74.1¢
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announce a presidential run by June 30, 2027?Политика
No$1.0k @ 41.0¢
Trump Jr.'s Republican nomination odds hit 4% by December 31?Политика
No$995 @ 77.5¢
Democratic 2028 presidential odds dip to 55% by March 31?Политика
No$988 @ 73.1¢