0x1d5e…64dd

Прибыльный

Эдж

+4.0pp

ROI

+12%

Доля побед

54% @ 49.7¢

Brier

0.254

Сделок

5099

Ср. размер

$45

Специализация по сферам

Сфера	Попадания	ROI	Ставки
Other	56% (167/297)	+12%	297
Технологии	59% (23/39)	+2%	39
Политика	50% (3/6)	-24%	6
Культура	60% (3/5)	+17%	5
Крипто	0% (0/3)	-100%	3
Спорт	50% (1/2)	+48%	2
Экономика	50% (1/2)	+5%	2

Other297 ставки
Попадания
56% (167/297)
ROI
+12%
Технологии39 ставки
Попадания
59% (23/39)
ROI
+2%
Политика6 ставки
Попадания
50% (3/6)
ROI
-24%
Культура5 ставки
Попадания
60% (3/5)
ROI
+17%
Крипто3 ставки
Попадания
0% (0/3)
ROI
-100%
Спорт2 ставки
Попадания
50% (1/2)
ROI
+48%
Экономика2 ставки
Попадания
50% (1/2)
ROI
+5%

История результатов

56% попаданий · 198/354

Рынок	Исход	Размер	Вход	Итог
Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$598	13.6¢	Поражение
Will Daylight launch a token by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$17	87.0¢	Поражение
Next Gemini Flash Model (3.9+) released by September 30, 2026?	No	$29	95.7¢	Победа
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on September 30, 2026?	Yes	$263	11.4¢	Поражение
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by September 30, 2026?	No	$320	17.5¢	Поражение
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?	Yes	$92	77.0¢	Победа
Will Roaring Kitty tweet again by December 31?	No	$65	65.0¢	Победа
Will Roaring Kitty tweet again by December 31?	Yes	$34	34.0¢	Поражение
NYC mayoral special election in 2024?	No	$195	84.6¢	Победа
NYC mayoral special election in 2024?	Yes	$35	15.2¢	Поражение
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?	No	$3.2k	80.0¢	Победа
Will a Democrat win Pennsylvania Presidential Election?	No	$854	53.4¢	Победа
Will a Democrat win Pennsylvania Presidential Election?	Yes	$492	46.8¢	Поражение
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?	No	$435	87.0¢	Победа
Will GPT-5 be released by August 10?	Yes	$48	80.0¢	Победа
Zircuit airdrop in 2024?	No	$15	10.0¢	Поражение
Will GPT-5 be released by August 15?	Yes	$492	70.3¢	Победа
Will Trump say "Hormuz" during Address to the Nation?	Yes	$73	81.1¢	Победа
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?	No	$49	49.0¢	Поражение
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?	Yes	$16	50.0¢	Победа
Polymarket Parlay - NFL Week 1	No	$61	61.0¢	Победа
Polymarket Parlay - NFL Week 1	Yes	$43	35.8¢	Поражение
Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?	Yes	$113	49.6¢	Поражение
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?	No	$4.8k	62.0¢	Победа
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?	Yes	$3.0k	34.2¢	Поражение
Will Trump say "Israel" during Lex interview?	Yes	$85	85.0¢	Победа
Lana Del Rey pregnant in 2024?	No	$123	84.7¢	Победа
Lana Del Rey pregnant in 2024?	Yes	$24	18.7¢	Поражение
Will Taylor Swift say "Travis" 10+ times during Travis Kelce's podcast on Wednesday?	No	$27	53.0¢	Поражение
Will Taylor Swift say "Travis" 10+ times during Travis Kelce's podcast on Wednesday?	Yes	$7	37.0¢	Победа
Will a Democrat win Michigan Presidential Election?	No	$43	43.0¢	Победа
Will a Democrat win Michigan Presidential Election?	Yes	$136	66.2¢	Поражение
Will Daylight launch a token by March 31, 2026?	Yes	$15	77.0¢	Поражение
Israel strike on Iran on June 27?	Yes	$8	15.4¢	Поражение
Fed rate cut by September meeting?	No	$35	51.0¢	Поражение
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2025?	Yes	$483	78.2¢	Победа
Khamenei seen in public by March 1?	No	$30	76.0¢	Победа
Moltbook AI agent sues a human by Feb 28?	No	$148	74.0¢	Поражение
Trump flips Kamala on 538 before October?	No	$144	72.0¢	Победа
Netherlands Parliamentary Election: FVD vs SP	FVD	$25	71.0¢	Победа
$YZY listed on Coinbase or Binance by September 30?	Yes	$11	18.7¢	Поражение
Khamenei seen in public by March 3?	No	$32	81.0¢	Победа
Will Daylight launch a token by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$17	87.0¢	Поражение
Japan prime minister Ishiba out by September 30?	No	$38	38.0¢	Поражение
Japan prime minister Ishiba out by September 30?	Yes	$63	62.5¢	Победа
3 Trump vs. Harris debates before election?	Yes	$1	7.0¢	Поражение
Will Palantir Technologies (PLTR) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	$20	70.0¢	Победа
Rainbow airdrop in 2024?	Yes	$9	6.0¢	Поражение
Will Taylor Swift say "Eras" during Tonight Show on October 6?	Yes	$387	83.5¢	Победа
Nikita Bier out as Head of Product at X by March 31?	No	$83	87.0¢	Победа

Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?Поражение
Yes$598 @ 13.6¢
Will Daylight launch a token by September 30, 2026?Поражение
Yes$17 @ 87.0¢
Next Gemini Flash Model (3.9+) released by September 30, 2026?Победа
No$29 @ 95.7¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on September 30, 2026?Поражение
Yes$263 @ 11.4¢
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by September 30, 2026?Поражение
No$320 @ 17.5¢
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?Победа
Yes$92 @ 77.0¢
Will Roaring Kitty tweet again by December 31?Победа
No$65 @ 65.0¢
Will Roaring Kitty tweet again by December 31?Поражение
Yes$34 @ 34.0¢
NYC mayoral special election in 2024?Победа
No$195 @ 84.6¢
NYC mayoral special election in 2024?Поражение
Yes$35 @ 15.2¢
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?Победа
No$3.2k @ 80.0¢
Will a Democrat win Pennsylvania Presidential Election?Победа
No$854 @ 53.4¢
Will a Democrat win Pennsylvania Presidential Election?Поражение
Yes$492 @ 46.8¢
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?Победа
No$435 @ 87.0¢
Will GPT-5 be released by August 10?Победа
Yes$48 @ 80.0¢
Zircuit airdrop in 2024?Поражение
No$15 @ 10.0¢
Will GPT-5 be released by August 15?Победа
Yes$492 @ 70.3¢
Will Trump say "Hormuz" during Address to the Nation?Победа
Yes$73 @ 81.1¢
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?Поражение
No$49 @ 49.0¢
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?Победа
Yes$16 @ 50.0¢
Polymarket Parlay - NFL Week 1Победа
No$61 @ 61.0¢
Polymarket Parlay - NFL Week 1Поражение
Yes$43 @ 35.8¢
Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?Поражение
Yes$113 @ 49.6¢
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?Победа
No$4.8k @ 62.0¢
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?Поражение
Yes$3.0k @ 34.2¢
Will Trump say "Israel" during Lex interview?Победа
Yes$85 @ 85.0¢
Lana Del Rey pregnant in 2024?Победа
No$123 @ 84.7¢
Lana Del Rey pregnant in 2024?Поражение
Yes$24 @ 18.7¢
Will Taylor Swift say "Travis" 10+ times during Travis Kelce's podcast on Wednesday?Поражение
No$27 @ 53.0¢
Will Taylor Swift say "Travis" 10+ times during Travis Kelce's podcast on Wednesday?Победа
Yes$7 @ 37.0¢
Will a Democrat win Michigan Presidential Election?Победа
No$43 @ 43.0¢
Will a Democrat win Michigan Presidential Election?Поражение
Yes$136 @ 66.2¢
Will Daylight launch a token by March 31, 2026?Поражение
Yes$15 @ 77.0¢
Israel strike on Iran on June 27?Поражение
Yes$8 @ 15.4¢
Fed rate cut by September meeting?Поражение
No$35 @ 51.0¢
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2025?Победа
Yes$483 @ 78.2¢
Khamenei seen in public by March 1?Победа
No$30 @ 76.0¢
Moltbook AI agent sues a human by Feb 28?Поражение
No$148 @ 74.0¢
Trump flips Kamala on 538 before October?Победа
No$144 @ 72.0¢
Netherlands Parliamentary Election: FVD vs SPПобеда
FVD$25 @ 71.0¢
$YZY listed on Coinbase or Binance by September 30?Поражение
Yes$11 @ 18.7¢
Khamenei seen in public by March 3?Победа
No$32 @ 81.0¢
Will Daylight launch a token by June 30, 2026?Поражение
Yes$17 @ 87.0¢
Japan prime minister Ishiba out by September 30?Поражение
No$38 @ 38.0¢
Japan prime minister Ishiba out by September 30?Победа
Yes$63 @ 62.5¢
3 Trump vs. Harris debates before election?Поражение
Yes$1 @ 7.0¢
Will Palantir Technologies (PLTR) beat quarterly earnings?Победа
Yes$20 @ 70.0¢
Rainbow airdrop in 2024?Поражение
Yes$9 @ 6.0¢
Will Taylor Swift say "Eras" during Tonight Show on October 6?Победа
Yes$387 @ 83.5¢
Nikita Bier out as Head of Product at X by March 31?Победа
No$83 @ 87.0¢

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Текущие позиции

Рынок	Сфера	Исход	Размер	Вход
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by October 31, 2026?	Технологии	No	$2.4k	79.2¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between October 12 and October 18, 2026?	Технологии	No	$2.1k	77.7¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between September 28 and October 4, 2026?	Технологии	Yes	$575	23.0¢
Eileen Gu citizenship revoked ?	Политика	No	$470	94.0¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between October 19 and October 25, 2026?	Технологии	No	$364	91.0¢
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026?	Технологии	No	$308	77.0¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495?	Технологии	Yes	$248	82.7¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between September 28 and October 4, 2026?	Технологии	No	$204	91.9¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Политика	No	$166	83.0¢
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?	Крипто	No	$160	80.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Michigan governor race in 2026?	Политика	Yes	$130	65.0¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500?	Технологии	Yes	$129	64.5¢
Anysphere (Cursor) IPO before 2027?	Бизнес	No	$90	86.0¢
Will Perplexity not IPO by December 31, 2027?	Технологии	Yes	$49	57.2¢
Mistral AI IPO before 2027?	Бизнес	No	$47	89.0¢
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1600 by December 31?	Технологии	No	$32	87.7¢
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	Технологии	No	$15	55.5¢
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?	Технологии	Yes	$13	35.9¢
Will the Republicans win the Michigan governor race in 2026?	Политика	No	$10	80.0¢
Ramp IPO before 2027?	Бизнес	No	$5	93.0¢
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	Политика	Yes	$3	23.0¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on October 25, 2026?	Технологии	Yes	$2	2.0¢

Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by October 31, 2026?Технологии
No$2.4k @ 79.2¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between October 12 and October 18, 2026?Технологии
No$2.1k @ 77.7¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between September 28 and October 4, 2026?Технологии
Yes$575 @ 23.0¢
Eileen Gu citizenship revoked ?Политика
No$470 @ 94.0¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between October 19 and October 25, 2026?Технологии
No$364 @ 91.0¢
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026?Технологии
No$308 @ 77.0¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495?Технологии
Yes$248 @ 82.7¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between September 28 and October 4, 2026?Технологии
No$204 @ 91.9¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?Политика
No$166 @ 83.0¢
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?Крипто
No$160 @ 80.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Michigan governor race in 2026?Политика
Yes$130 @ 65.0¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500?Технологии
Yes$129 @ 64.5¢
Anysphere (Cursor) IPO before 2027?Бизнес
No$90 @ 86.0¢
Will Perplexity not IPO by December 31, 2027?Технологии
Yes$49 @ 57.2¢
Mistral AI IPO before 2027?Бизнес
No$47 @ 89.0¢
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1600 by December 31?Технологии
No$32 @ 87.7¢
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?Технологии
No$15 @ 55.5¢
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?Технологии
Yes$13 @ 35.9¢
Will the Republicans win the Michigan governor race in 2026?Политика
No$10 @ 80.0¢
Ramp IPO before 2027?Бизнес
No$5 @ 93.0¢
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?Политика
Yes$3 @ 23.0¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on October 25, 2026?Технологии
Yes$2 @ 2.0¢