0x01ee…c603

Прибыльный

Эдж

+11.2pp

ROI

+3%

Доля побед

55% @ 44.0¢

Brier

0.124

Сделок

116

Ср. размер

Динамика ROI

Специализация по сферам

Сфера	Попадания	ROI	Ставки
Политика	44% (14/32)	-16%	32
Other	55% (6/11)	+23%	11
Крипто	50% (2/4)	+76%	4
Спорт	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Геополитика	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Культура	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Политика32 ставки
Попадания
44% (14/32)
ROI
-16%
Other11 ставки
Попадания
55% (6/11)
ROI
+23%
Крипто4 ставки
Попадания
50% (2/4)
ROI
+76%
Спорт1 ставки
Попадания
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Геополитика1 ставки
Попадания
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Культура1 ставки
Попадания
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

История результатов

44% попаданий · 22/50

Рынок	Исход	Размер	Вход	Итог
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?	No	$1	76.9¢	Поражение
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?	Yes	$2	38.7¢	Победа
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$1	59.0¢	Победа
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$9	18.5¢	Поражение
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$7	11.0¢	Поражение
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	$1	86.9¢	Победа
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	$3	16.0¢	Поражение
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	Yes	$1	13.0¢	Поражение
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	$1	71.4¢	Победа
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	$4	49.4¢	Поражение
Will Denise Powell be the Democratic nominee for NE-02?	Yes	$1	54.0¢	Победа
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$1	11.0¢	Поражение
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$14	57.8¢	Победа
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$1	54.0¢	Поражение
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	Yes	$2	31.8¢	Победа
US federally charges ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro?	Yes	$1	13.0¢	Победа
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?	No	$1	83.0¢	Поражение
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?	Yes	$7	51.1¢	Победа
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	$5	0.7¢	Поражение
Will "Re:ZERO -Starting Life in Another World- Season 3" win Best Isekai Anime at the 2026 Crunchyroll Anime Awards?	Yes	$1	89.0¢	Победа
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	$2	33.3¢	Поражение
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$1	13.4¢	Поражение
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	$21	77.7¢	Победа
Will John Fleming be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana?	Yes	$1	9.3¢	Поражение
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by May 31?	Yes	$1	14.7¢	Поражение
Will Phil Lyman be the Republican nominee for UT-03?	Yes	$1	1.5¢	Поражение
No one announced as next James Bond?	No	$1	0.2¢	Поражение
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?	Yes	$1	42.0¢	Поражение
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	$3	48.4¢	Победа
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$1	25.0¢	Поражение
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$3	27.4¢	Победа
Will Karianne Lisonbee be the Republican nominee for UT-02?	Yes	$2	2.2¢	Поражение
Will one Democratic Party candidate and one Republican Party candidate advance to the general election for Governor of California from the June 2, 2026 primary?	Yes	$1	77.0¢	Победа
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	$1	5.0¢	Поражение
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	$2	79.5¢	Победа
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	$3	78.7¢	Победа
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$1	31.0¢	Победа
Will Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by 9% or more?	No	$1	32.0¢	Поражение
Will Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by 9% or more?	Yes	$1	17.0¢	Победа
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	Yes	$2	3.6¢	Поражение
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31?	Yes	$1	4.1¢	Поражение
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026?	No	$1	3.4¢	Поражение
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	Yes	$3	5.2¢	Поражение
Will "Toy Story 5" 4th Weekend Box Office be less than 19m?	No	$1	99.8¢	Победа
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$1	88.0¢	Победа
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	No	$2	33.0¢	Поражение
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Primary?	No	$3	46.4¢	Поражение
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$4	5.7¢	Поражение
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	$4	88.3¢	Победа
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$2	87.5¢	Победа

Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?Поражение
No$1 @ 76.9¢
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?Победа
Yes$2 @ 38.7¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Победа
No$1 @ 59.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Поражение
Yes$9 @ 18.5¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Поражение
Yes$7 @ 11.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Победа
No$1 @ 86.9¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Поражение
Yes$3 @ 16.0¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?Поражение
Yes$1 @ 13.0¢
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Победа
No$1 @ 71.4¢
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Поражение
Yes$4 @ 49.4¢
Will Denise Powell be the Democratic nominee for NE-02?Победа
Yes$1 @ 54.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?Поражение
Yes$1 @ 11.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Победа
No$14 @ 57.8¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Поражение
Yes$1 @ 54.0¢
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?Победа
Yes$2 @ 31.8¢
US federally charges ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro?Победа
Yes$1 @ 13.0¢
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?Поражение
No$1 @ 83.0¢
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?Победа
Yes$7 @ 51.1¢
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?Поражение
Yes$5 @ 0.7¢
Will "Re:ZERO -Starting Life in Another World- Season 3" win Best Isekai Anime at the 2026 Crunchyroll Anime Awards?Победа
Yes$1 @ 89.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Поражение
Yes$2 @ 33.3¢
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026?Поражение
Yes$1 @ 13.4¢
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Победа
No$21 @ 77.7¢
Will John Fleming be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana?Поражение
Yes$1 @ 9.3¢
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by May 31?Поражение
Yes$1 @ 14.7¢
Will Phil Lyman be the Republican nominee for UT-03?Поражение
Yes$1 @ 1.5¢
No one announced as next James Bond?Поражение
No$1 @ 0.2¢
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?Поражение
Yes$1 @ 42.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?Победа
No$3 @ 48.4¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?Поражение
Yes$1 @ 25.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?Победа
Yes$3 @ 27.4¢
Will Karianne Lisonbee be the Republican nominee for UT-02?Поражение
Yes$2 @ 2.2¢
Will one Democratic Party candidate and one Republican Party candidate advance to the general election for Governor of California from the June 2, 2026 primary?Победа
Yes$1 @ 77.0¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Поражение
No$1 @ 5.0¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Победа
Yes$2 @ 79.5¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?Победа
No$3 @ 78.7¢
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Победа
Yes$1 @ 31.0¢
Will Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by 9% or more?Поражение
No$1 @ 32.0¢
Will Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by 9% or more?Победа
Yes$1 @ 17.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?Поражение
Yes$2 @ 3.6¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31?Поражение
Yes$1 @ 4.1¢
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026?Поражение
No$1 @ 3.4¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?Поражение
Yes$3 @ 5.2¢
Will "Toy Story 5" 4th Weekend Box Office be less than 19m?Победа
No$1 @ 99.8¢
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?Победа
Yes$1 @ 88.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?Поражение
No$2 @ 33.0¢
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Primary?Поражение
No$3 @ 46.4¢
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Поражение
Yes$4 @ 5.7¢
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Победа
No$4 @ 88.3¢
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Победа
Yes$2 @ 87.5¢

Недавние сделки

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Текущие позиции

Рынок	Сфера	Исход	Размер	Вход
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?	Политика	Yes	$8	99.4¢
Kash Patel out by December 31?	Политика	Yes	$4	60.1¢
Will Jared Golden be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?	—	No	$3	99.6¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Политика	No	$3	72.1¢
Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?	Политика	Yes	$2	87.0¢
Will New York use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	Политика	No	$2	96.0¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Политика	Yes	$2	23.5¢
Kash Patel out by July 31?	Политика	Yes	$2	13.5¢
Will New York use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	Политика	Yes	$2	14.5¢
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	Политика	Yes	$2	7.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Политика	Yes	$1	10.0¢
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Other	Yes	$1	16.0¢
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?	Геополитика	Yes	$1	20.0¢
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?	Политика	Yes	$1	25.0¢
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?	Политика	Yes	$1	32.0¢
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?	Политика	Yes	$1	32.0¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Геополитика	Yes	$1	32.0¢
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	Политика	No	$1	63.0¢
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	Политика	No	$1	91.0¢
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?	Геополитика	No	$1	78.0¢
Will 0 people leave the Trump Cabinet by December 31, 2026?	Политика	No	$1	99.2¢
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Other	No	$1	84.0¢
Will Nirav Shah be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?	—	No	$1	90.3¢
Will there be at least 3500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Наука	Yes	$1	83.0¢
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition?	Политика	Yes	$1	79.0¢
Will Anthony DiLorenzo be the Republican Nominee for NH-01?	Политика	Yes	$1	79.0¢
Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?	Политика	No	$1	62.0¢
Will Cori Bush be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?	Политика	Yes	$1	62.0¢
Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Наука	Yes	$1	88.0¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?	Геополитика	No	$1	85.0¢

Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?Политика
Yes$8 @ 99.4¢
Kash Patel out by December 31?Политика
Yes$4 @ 60.1¢
Will Jared Golden be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?—
No$3 @ 99.6¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Политика
No$3 @ 72.1¢
Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?Политика
Yes$2 @ 87.0¢
Will New York use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?Политика
No$2 @ 96.0¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Политика
Yes$2 @ 23.5¢
Kash Patel out by July 31?Политика
Yes$2 @ 13.5¢
Will New York use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?Политика
Yes$2 @ 14.5¢
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?Политика
Yes$2 @ 7.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Политика
Yes$1 @ 10.0¢
Will GameStop acquire eBay?Other
Yes$1 @ 16.0¢
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?Геополитика
Yes$1 @ 20.0¢
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?Политика
Yes$1 @ 25.0¢
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?Политика
Yes$1 @ 32.0¢
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?Политика
Yes$1 @ 32.0¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?Геополитика
Yes$1 @ 32.0¢
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?Политика
No$1 @ 63.0¢
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?Политика
No$1 @ 91.0¢
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?Геополитика
No$1 @ 78.0¢
Will 0 people leave the Trump Cabinet by December 31, 2026?Политика
No$1 @ 99.2¢
Will GameStop acquire eBay?Other
No$1 @ 84.0¢
Will Nirav Shah be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?—
No$1 @ 90.3¢
Will there be at least 3500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?Наука
Yes$1 @ 83.0¢
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition?Политика
Yes$1 @ 79.0¢
Will Anthony DiLorenzo be the Republican Nominee for NH-01?Политика
Yes$1 @ 79.0¢
Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?Политика
No$1 @ 62.0¢
Will Cori Bush be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?Политика
Yes$1 @ 62.0¢
Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?Наука
Yes$1 @ 88.0¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?Геополитика
No$1 @ 85.0¢