[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"whale-0x8a524bca5c742485c1ee2056735d1825e45bd74c":3},{"stats":4,"positions":25,"signals":47,"history":48,"resolved":51,"resolvedSummary":232,"specialization":235,"meta":252},{"wallet_address":5,"total_trades":6,"resolved_trades":7,"win_rate":8,"roi":9,"brier_score":10,"p_value":11,"is_sharp":12,"updated_at":13,"is_profitable":14,"avg_position_size_usdc":15,"churn_ratio":16,"last_trade_at":17,"wash_suspect":12,"discovery_source":18,"avg_entry_price":19,"avg_edge":20,"total_pnl_usdc":21,"total_capital_usdc":22,"composite_score":23,"late_entry_share":24,"is_resolution_sniper":12},"0x8a524bca5c742485c1ee2056735d1825e45bd74c",731,69,0.5217391304347826,0.6605176502209932,0.20647841223956903,0.0020000000000000018,0,"2026-09-24T07:41:29.827Z",1,74.79523142028984,7.028846153846154,"2026-09-24T02:30:46.000Z","trades",0.3182472507173913,0.2034918797173913,3408.8463648771017,5160.870967999998,12.592101746773434,0.06153846153846154,[26,39],{"token_id":27,"condition_id":28,"outcome":29,"size":30,"avg_price":31,"updated_at":32,"first_seen_at":33,"question":34,"event_slug":35,"active":14,"closed":12,"accepting_orders":14,"end_date_iso":36,"outcome_prices":37,"category":38},"35091138918877574623249925212840013472864426766440528248091523610154038837324","0x69f9cca13a5d7bf86a7899ec0319a794f174daa78ba78ed9c824b21d327ff79d","Yes",2055.2697,0.9011,"2026-09-30T03:04:35.354Z","2026-09-29T14:29:53.480Z","Will OpenAI resume US ChatGPT Pro signups by October 31, 2026?","openai-resumes-us-chatgpt-pro-20x-signups-byptptpt","2026-11-01T03:59:00Z","[\"0.225\", \"0.775\"]","Tech",{"token_id":40,"condition_id":41,"outcome":29,"size":42,"avg_price":43,"updated_at":32,"first_seen_at":33,"question":44,"event_slug":35,"active":14,"closed":12,"accepting_orders":14,"end_date_iso":45,"outcome_prices":46,"category":38},"94484963615265052047694135695573341971850918597242097959866803760911220142907","0x53dcc4ebc77570254ef6088a5b93f2a2589eb2c37d7026e6f80f89d8e06fb511",1221.4075,0.7789,"Will OpenAI resume US ChatGPT Pro signups by September 30, 2026?","2026-10-01T03:59:00Z","[\"0.52\", \"0.48\"]",[],[49],{"recorded_date":50,"roi":9,"win_rate":8,"brier_score":10,"p_value":11,"resolved_trades":7,"is_sharp":12,"is_profitable":14},"2026-09-24",[52,61,66,71,79,87,90,98,103,110,116,122,129,134,139,144,149,156,159,166,173,178,183,188,195,202,208,213,218,225],{"condition_id":53,"outcome":29,"usdc":54,"entry_price":55,"won":14,"source":56,"end_date_iso":57,"captured_at":58,"question":59,"event_slug":60,"category":38},"0x0630fc3f77c2db5ecc473cf4f782e58143a16db6440e714805c8619aa8073a71",7.2774,0.9,"live","2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","2026-09-26T05:31:15.502Z","Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1505 by December 31, 2026?","next-claude-opus-model-text-arena-debut-20261231",{"condition_id":62,"outcome":29,"usdc":63,"entry_price":64,"won":14,"source":56,"end_date_iso":57,"captured_at":58,"question":65,"event_slug":60,"category":38},"0x7beae3f4f7efa6f70994228e4f1b434fbeb3cfcb7f776b18149625235a79089d",40.338,0.8964,"Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1515 by December 31, 2026?",{"condition_id":67,"outcome":68,"usdc":69,"entry_price":55,"won":14,"source":56,"end_date_iso":57,"captured_at":58,"question":70,"event_slug":60,"category":38},"0x836e48e57d3baeb8770d375db6f53230bf62c38d534e6e1ccd7dcdcd00d804cc","No",15.651000000000002,"Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1520 by December 31, 2026?",{"condition_id":72,"outcome":29,"usdc":73,"entry_price":74,"won":14,"source":75,"end_date_iso":76,"captured_at":13,"question":77,"event_slug":78,"category":38},"0x070aadbfe09fd159994516c4e7e61d18d25622dd92f4b87d715824ef33cd2eb6",1308.524827,0.6999722456263934,"backfill","2026-07-31T00:00:00Z","Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?","which-company-has-the-best-math-ai-model-end-of-july",{"condition_id":80,"outcome":68,"usdc":81,"entry_price":82,"won":12,"source":75,"end_date_iso":83,"captured_at":13,"question":84,"event_slug":85,"category":86},"0x0c2ca21665bd7895ec4e6963b5fe66a5a881b9cccc6eadaac230c57864d84255",1.039149,0.0209999797,"","Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score below 1480?","claude-opus-4pt8-arena-debut",null,{"condition_id":80,"outcome":29,"usdc":88,"entry_price":89,"won":14,"source":75,"end_date_iso":83,"captured_at":13,"question":84,"event_slug":85,"category":86},30.672407,0.3633336640077062,{"condition_id":91,"outcome":68,"usdc":92,"entry_price":93,"won":12,"source":75,"end_date_iso":94,"captured_at":13,"question":95,"event_slug":96,"category":97},"0x2de8d7b9d103366e37f3a448db8289c5c571dec5c0b9eeddbc673546d4bd9322",6,0.002,"2026-06-16T03:59:00Z","US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?","us-and-iran-sign-an-agreement-byptptpt-20260611221049850","Politics",{"condition_id":99,"outcome":29,"usdc":100,"entry_price":101,"won":12,"source":75,"end_date_iso":76,"captured_at":13,"question":102,"event_slug":78,"category":38},"0x414f0e9435ec2100a952e512ff2534a43188091c02e058e36c0cf1c015e94d27",15.585629,0.0239388245,"Will Moonshot have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?",{"condition_id":104,"outcome":29,"usdc":105,"entry_price":106,"won":14,"source":75,"end_date_iso":107,"captured_at":13,"question":108,"event_slug":109,"category":86},"0x4f0ad5a25212740c32b5f6fe600eefa105c659ad28c82fb87dbfa55380bbbc29",1724.212412,0.33441646882320675,"2026-06-30T00:00:00Z","Will Claude Code Commits be at least 750.0k on June 30?","claude-code-commits-end-of-june",{"condition_id":111,"outcome":29,"usdc":112,"entry_price":113,"won":14,"source":75,"end_date_iso":83,"captured_at":13,"question":114,"event_slug":115,"category":86},"0x5444d004368f72aa8e64d1774399c8bd2606652eecb950872a5bd0072e2fb1ac",13.409964,0.8499999936,"Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1530?","claude-mythos-arena-debut",{"condition_id":117,"outcome":29,"usdc":118,"entry_price":119,"won":12,"source":75,"end_date_iso":83,"captured_at":13,"question":120,"event_slug":121,"category":86},"0x5ea28ed0050796325defedff2589e22f9f11b767d97829c5b07d6eb8c1468ebf",2.703,0.5,"Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1480 and 1490?","will-the-next-claude-opus-4pt8-model-added-to-the-arena-leaderboard-debut-at-a-score-between-1480-and-1490",{"condition_id":123,"outcome":29,"usdc":124,"entry_price":125,"won":12,"source":75,"end_date_iso":126,"captured_at":13,"question":127,"event_slug":128,"category":86},"0x6432e0721d1b910078dd38141c21e6e2f6c98bff4d9f82313ec227017036f120",10.174249,0.5643564189,"2026-06-29T17:00:00Z","Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29?","claude-fable-5-restored-for-us-customers-by-20260613193753196",{"condition_id":130,"outcome":29,"usdc":131,"entry_price":132,"won":14,"source":75,"end_date_iso":83,"captured_at":13,"question":133,"event_slug":115,"category":86},"0x6fd7deaf6c94cbcdbe1b0e4289c3c6a1482e743759b346fef42df38330e1a52c",15.931309,0.8399999958,"Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520?",{"condition_id":135,"outcome":29,"usdc":136,"entry_price":137,"won":12,"source":75,"end_date_iso":76,"captured_at":13,"question":138,"event_slug":78,"category":38},"0x70e74c365daa1a88fa71cb64fd7de7cea4eb1b99d7675de99960bd6e142c1e46",10.39257,0.0185631388,"Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?",{"condition_id":140,"outcome":29,"usdc":141,"entry_price":142,"won":12,"source":75,"end_date_iso":76,"captured_at":13,"question":143,"event_slug":78,"category":38},"0x7ae8cd69a861a7442b7e46d2d7e29b66c826ae36fb52e4e30fc49c2adccb73cf",713.219473,0.44411108888823486,"Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?",{"condition_id":145,"outcome":29,"usdc":146,"entry_price":147,"won":12,"source":75,"end_date_iso":76,"captured_at":13,"question":148,"event_slug":78,"category":38},"0x7bcf8180641ecdf56867c66ecc41561f14b2965de30a5799df1f59c1bbeb3cd5",5.19954,0.0022524738,"Will xAI have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?",{"condition_id":150,"outcome":68,"usdc":151,"entry_price":152,"won":12,"source":75,"end_date_iso":153,"captured_at":13,"question":154,"event_slug":155,"category":86},"0x85ebae5e52fbb7329d9f3ef12b726b1fce45409e9b91317ad164da91e1740ad3",2.0785679999999997,0.01773397266728314,"2026-05-31T00:00:00Z","Will Claude Code Commits hit (HIGH) 750.0k by May 31?","claude-code-commits-hit-by-may-31",{"condition_id":150,"outcome":29,"usdc":157,"entry_price":158,"won":14,"source":75,"end_date_iso":153,"captured_at":13,"question":154,"event_slug":155,"category":86},30.887989,0.2599999945,{"condition_id":160,"outcome":29,"usdc":161,"entry_price":162,"won":14,"source":75,"end_date_iso":107,"captured_at":13,"question":163,"event_slug":164,"category":165},"0x897227c17469bd18eaf9bc54e31e8d742e57ee4a3186b52306fdbad12e62ca76",20.21176,0.7352941176,"Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?","best-chinese-ai-company-end-of-june","Geopolitics",{"condition_id":167,"outcome":29,"usdc":168,"entry_price":169,"won":12,"source":75,"end_date_iso":170,"captured_at":13,"question":171,"event_slug":172,"category":86},"0x971eb98daab3a11a1dd3b76e14ae962f8e5980ec6a3d499529b5f19b75108d4a",1.0276,0.08,"2026-07-07T16:00:00Z","Will Egypt win on 2026-07-07?","fifwc-arg-egy-2026-07-07",{"condition_id":174,"outcome":29,"usdc":175,"entry_price":176,"won":12,"source":75,"end_date_iso":107,"captured_at":13,"question":177,"event_slug":109,"category":38},"0xa2b987223da8f088dae41386672af8780be753f585c6c6842307b568f1573e4f",81.873846,0.10720709549390331,"Will Claude Code Commits be between 650.0k and 700.0k on June 30?",{"condition_id":179,"outcome":29,"usdc":180,"entry_price":181,"won":14,"source":75,"end_date_iso":170,"captured_at":13,"question":182,"event_slug":172,"category":86},"0xa7b5b123f9fd38f83fbe19773a5d04e38208b370ca66be27b9688155e7b5c60a",1.0285,0.05,"Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?",{"condition_id":184,"outcome":68,"usdc":185,"entry_price":186,"won":14,"source":75,"end_date_iso":83,"captured_at":13,"question":187,"event_slug":115,"category":86},"0xb5999d97638fa838e508e2f527f224c7cf99de664c4badf757633e78c0cb111b",14.379709,0.6299999973,"Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1540?",{"condition_id":189,"outcome":68,"usdc":190,"entry_price":191,"won":12,"source":75,"end_date_iso":192,"captured_at":13,"question":193,"event_slug":194,"category":38},"0xbbed59a986769ba4fa495c1549b28b0280733fe376e2c2ab1e9787b7ff6f8fe2",14.531468,0.0420115233242374,"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1450?","next-openai-model-arena-debut-685",{"condition_id":196,"outcome":68,"usdc":197,"entry_price":198,"won":12,"source":75,"end_date_iso":199,"captured_at":13,"question":200,"event_slug":201,"category":86},"0xc4cdd7f47de5d277b5b11d0b9ee59cbb31561b748e450d25ca59a3d1e52f2f46",8.29866,0.037760645816835046,"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","Will the next Grok model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1440 by December 31, 2026?","next-grok-model-text-arena-debut-20260708011851337",{"condition_id":203,"outcome":29,"usdc":204,"entry_price":205,"won":14,"source":75,"end_date_iso":76,"captured_at":13,"question":206,"event_slug":207,"category":165},"0xc77337b8412059d0a17bb75ea0de2d398bf756464c76161582b22afe4777e3cc",522.491375,0.8778908957778131,"Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?","best-chinese-ai-company-end-of-july",{"condition_id":209,"outcome":29,"usdc":210,"entry_price":211,"won":12,"source":75,"end_date_iso":107,"captured_at":13,"question":212,"event_slug":109,"category":86},"0xca64daec7c852c797c0b03196e18cff0b0003b01bc24404234ed7b32d651f66a",76.43244800000001,0.1469687985754814,"Will Claude Code Commits be between 700.0k and 750.0k on June 30?",{"condition_id":214,"outcome":68,"usdc":215,"entry_price":216,"won":12,"source":75,"end_date_iso":199,"captured_at":13,"question":217,"event_slug":201,"category":86},"0xd62329c73aa2f348f29c91d2d307f28a3bb7bda1e6bf4fd78a7958a8a9dd89d5",8.312509,0.0233818142,"Will the next Grok model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1450 by December 31, 2026?",{"condition_id":219,"outcome":29,"usdc":220,"entry_price":221,"won":14,"source":75,"end_date_iso":222,"captured_at":13,"question":223,"event_slug":224,"category":86},"0xeb9f5707eabf3c272097196b137d841fda958ec64aecff36283cc448a7e3e40b",19.999999,0.1383120343,"2026-07-09T23:59:00Z","Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?","iran-military-action-against-a-gulf-state-onptptpt-20260708212328295",{"condition_id":226,"outcome":29,"usdc":227,"entry_price":228,"won":14,"source":75,"end_date_iso":229,"captured_at":13,"question":230,"event_slug":231,"category":86},"0xfa337080f5b457a5b76f8451a80cef3c0ed36eabfe3f4d38403005c43825b1df",502.252008,0.8873992378,"2026-07-04T23:59:00Z","Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on July 4, 2026?","best-ai-model-on-july-4-20260626161107952",{"total":233,"wins":234},30,15,[236,242,247,250],{"category":237,"n":238,"wins":239,"hitRate":240,"roi":241},"Other",17,9,0.5294117647058824,1.4962326500882943,{"category":38,"n":243,"wins":244,"hitRate":245,"roi":246},10,4,0.4,-0.12325916194546761,{"category":165,"n":248,"wins":248,"hitRate":14,"roi":249},2,0.14732087168264893,{"category":97,"n":14,"wins":12,"hitRate":12,"roi":251},-1,{"generatedAt":253},"2026-09-30T18:21:24.918Z"]