[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"whale-0x61ea83757d03ad51fb01bcedc7f69d623960bbf7":3},{"stats":4,"positions":25,"signals":121,"history":122,"resolved":125,"resolvedSummary":642,"specialization":645,"meta":659},{"wallet_address":5,"total_trades":6,"resolved_trades":7,"win_rate":8,"roi":9,"brier_score":10,"p_value":11,"is_sharp":12,"updated_at":13,"is_profitable":14,"avg_position_size_usdc":15,"churn_ratio":16,"last_trade_at":17,"wash_suspect":12,"discovery_source":18,"avg_entry_price":19,"avg_edge":20,"total_pnl_usdc":21,"total_capital_usdc":22,"composite_score":23,"late_entry_share":24,"is_resolution_sniper":12},"0x61ea83757d03ad51fb01bcedc7f69d623960bbf7",1950,952,0.5273109243697479,0.4703233868970161,0.2670782120094226,0.0020000000000000018,0,"2026-10-02T19:37:25.900Z",1,210.6469647100839,2.0461699895068204,"2026-10-02T17:13:18.000Z","trades",0.3005426583156514,0.2267682660540962,94316.72857568579,200535.91040399988,20.03949020246979,0.005405405405405406,[26,39,48,56,65,74,82,90,98,107,114],{"token_id":27,"condition_id":28,"outcome":29,"size":30,"avg_price":31,"updated_at":32,"first_seen_at":33,"question":34,"event_slug":35,"active":14,"closed":12,"accepting_orders":14,"end_date_iso":36,"outcome_prices":37,"category":38},"19521088970261367195201520366397988280996640521852307176239892442414361500298","0x115374e9cb26f7c375f35cdfec08167024dbfc5a20f339806d81236ed25ab781","Yes",9554.1689,0.5646,"2026-10-06T12:56:14.919Z","2026-10-02T22:02:57.126Z","Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?","miguel-daz-canel-out-as-leader-of-cuba-by-june-30","2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","[\"0.12\", \"0.88\"]","Politics",{"token_id":40,"condition_id":41,"outcome":29,"size":42,"avg_price":43,"updated_at":32,"first_seen_at":33,"question":44,"event_slug":45,"active":14,"closed":12,"accepting_orders":14,"end_date_iso":46,"outcome_prices":47,"category":38},"38487155026041533062980821872238023790862908049855818921747904019478875496931","0x9345d5142a67f5541264c96515496affee02580f1c572680759eac9fd2a1588a",15181.4302,0.3447,"Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?","billionaire-one-time-wealth-tax-passes-in-california-election-2026","2026-11-04T04:59:00Z","[\"0.295\", \"0.705\"]",{"token_id":49,"condition_id":50,"outcome":29,"size":51,"avg_price":52,"updated_at":32,"first_seen_at":33,"question":53,"event_slug":54,"active":14,"closed":12,"accepting_orders":14,"end_date_iso":46,"outcome_prices":55,"category":38},"51939490109676186832507970701169130490548061087912630009168726706475001411420","0x86bfb53af7250a40928975c551d12c185b762fa4ce0b40c6a64a50c946d72587",10399.99,0.4902,"Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?","which-party-will-win-the-senate-in-2026","[\"0.355\", \"0.645\"]",{"token_id":57,"condition_id":58,"outcome":29,"size":59,"avg_price":60,"updated_at":32,"first_seen_at":33,"question":61,"event_slug":62,"active":14,"closed":12,"accepting_orders":14,"end_date_iso":63,"outcome_prices":64,"category":38},"109876868437950584369987384406356259939519193117253465815665152916226511121427","0x1a01bf78f56a507fcb666d564d8c8b91b0750679163ed6e96746102c9b7d285d",10799.9942,0.3059,"Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?","brazil-presidential-election","2026-10-05T03:59:00Z","[\"0.8465\", \"0.1535\"]",{"token_id":66,"condition_id":67,"outcome":29,"size":68,"avg_price":69,"updated_at":32,"first_seen_at":33,"question":70,"event_slug":71,"active":14,"closed":12,"accepting_orders":14,"end_date_iso":72,"outcome_prices":73,"category":38},"40081275558852222228080198821361202017557872256707631666334039001378518619916","0x18b1c135d0a40c5894da9412e77311827d9caf16cf4cd6591b247a34730af919",5399.9899,0.473,"Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?","republican-presidential-nominee-2028","2028-11-08T04:59:00Z","[\"0.5025\", \"0.4975\"]",{"token_id":75,"condition_id":76,"outcome":29,"size":77,"avg_price":78,"updated_at":32,"first_seen_at":33,"question":79,"event_slug":80,"active":14,"closed":12,"accepting_orders":14,"end_date_iso":46,"outcome_prices":81,"category":38},"6302359956133594764084277082169634158291609371270652093164054687145970756151","0x998bc71817b2d76921d1999ce0f3431cfd5945583667a371280ca2b430b0c06e",5000,0.31,"2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House","balance-of-power-2026-midterms","[\"0.265\", \"0.735\"]",{"token_id":83,"condition_id":84,"outcome":29,"size":85,"avg_price":86,"updated_at":32,"first_seen_at":33,"question":87,"event_slug":88,"active":14,"closed":12,"accepting_orders":14,"end_date_iso":36,"outcome_prices":89,"category":38},"99878393523957043401217108863095556720659532630565063651671026144852955005052","0x5c19f205507ce03ff5f3be08a8090a5969ea6870cc07b902a4ca2e61dfe48fdd",4400.0091,0.2402,"Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?","russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-agreement-by","[\"0.145\", \"0.855\"]",{"token_id":91,"condition_id":92,"outcome":29,"size":93,"avg_price":94,"updated_at":32,"first_seen_at":33,"question":95,"event_slug":96,"active":14,"closed":12,"accepting_orders":14,"end_date_iso":72,"outcome_prices":97,"category":38},"90227223115596293448966158151606153337847900483048338623540402385929720677904","0x61d9486c0f7e14ed98f3b177b6adcb3cd45646c92e8bbfbf209789b86472d4b6",57890.1255,0.0152,"Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?","democratic-presidential-nominee-2028","[\"0.0205\", \"0.9795\"]",{"token_id":99,"condition_id":100,"outcome":29,"size":101,"avg_price":102,"updated_at":32,"first_seen_at":33,"question":103,"event_slug":104,"active":14,"closed":12,"accepting_orders":14,"end_date_iso":105,"outcome_prices":106,"category":38},"111061902544814266207267295505639408607400625795891618462682726460921782993748","0xdf9bf27ee5757c55b44b8b9826ddc9ec3a8809aa3278634c45edbb7fc8f1a3e3",1600,0.54,"Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?","fed-decision-in-october-20260617190323537","2026-10-29T03:59:00Z","[\"0.815\", \"0.185\"]",{"token_id":108,"condition_id":109,"outcome":29,"size":110,"avg_price":111,"updated_at":32,"first_seen_at":33,"question":112,"event_slug":96,"active":14,"closed":12,"accepting_orders":14,"end_date_iso":72,"outcome_prices":113,"category":38},"107064985435494333113391038470401719113272800530429703182710416066774068907304","0xe6bcc2f1dd025ce5e1833190f7c60a71171c94f805df55b9ab0ded695ec93565",3199.9973,0.095,"Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?","[\"0.1795\", \"0.8205\"]",{"token_id":115,"condition_id":116,"outcome":29,"size":117,"avg_price":12,"updated_at":32,"first_seen_at":33,"question":118,"event_slug":119,"active":14,"closed":12,"accepting_orders":14,"end_date_iso":72,"outcome_prices":120,"category":38},"16040015440196279900485035793550429453516625694844857319147506590755961451627","0x7ad403c3508f8e3912940fd1a913f227591145ca0614074208e0b962d5fcc422",666.45,"Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?","presidential-election-winner-2028","[\"0.2025\", \"0.7975\"]",[],[123],{"recorded_date":124,"roi":9,"win_rate":8,"brier_score":10,"p_value":11,"resolved_trades":7,"is_sharp":12,"is_profitable":14},"2026-10-02",[126,135,142,149,156,163,168,174,179,187,194,199,202,209,216,219,226,233,239,245,252,257,260,266,271,276,279,285,292,297,304,310,316,322,328,335,337,344,349,352,358,363,369,377,384,391,397,404,411,417,423,430,437,443,448,455,461,466,471,478,484,489,496,501,506,511,516,522,529,534,540,545,551,557,564,569,574,579,586,592,598,603,607,613,618,624,630,635],{"condition_id":127,"outcome":29,"usdc":128,"entry_price":129,"won":12,"source":130,"end_date_iso":131,"captured_at":13,"question":132,"event_slug":133,"category":134},"0x04787bbd66241501604f377f11b897879c1593b019bb3363dac0a73e99b4a131",7.8,0.039,"backfill","2024-12-30T12:00:00Z","Will Fed cut interest rates 0 times in 2024?","how-many-fed-rate-cuts-this-year",null,{"condition_id":136,"outcome":29,"usdc":137,"entry_price":138,"won":14,"source":130,"end_date_iso":139,"captured_at":13,"question":140,"event_slug":141,"category":38},"0x04f1a10e79a106d18dc45e6087f0757456197ec5c6ffec2506cd066e8215fc62",3964.23987,0.8029135077,"2026-06-25T00:00:00Z","Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?","billionaire-one-time-wealth-tax-on-california-ballot",{"condition_id":143,"outcome":29,"usdc":144,"entry_price":145,"won":12,"source":130,"end_date_iso":146,"captured_at":13,"question":147,"event_slug":148,"category":134},"0x09cbe3e796661a1d820580145488ad2ccb9ad1e720efcd64b448bb77b97007c1",81.5994,0.2243097476,"2026-01-31T00:00:00Z","US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?","us-strikes-iran-by",{"condition_id":150,"outcome":29,"usdc":151,"entry_price":152,"won":12,"source":130,"end_date_iso":153,"captured_at":13,"question":154,"event_slug":155,"category":134},"0x0e1a1094091ba8905a5d11222796cf94d3d6d055076f0088886bd2386e6f88b8",99.999999,0.0710274349,"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?","who-will-be-next-supreme-leader-of-iran-515",{"condition_id":157,"outcome":29,"usdc":158,"entry_price":159,"won":12,"source":130,"end_date_iso":160,"captured_at":13,"question":161,"event_slug":162,"category":38},"0x0e4a0c937b8934c2475613b6322b3f8edc8dedc24762e01e42b0e6f87424a089",19301.95114600001,0.37083402496392837,"2026-05-31T00:00:00Z","US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?","us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by",{"condition_id":164,"outcome":29,"usdc":165,"entry_price":166,"won":12,"source":130,"end_date_iso":131,"captured_at":13,"question":167,"event_slug":133,"category":134},"0x1070c27e30447364ed6602778729203d29aaa8860cb0a24779eb3a26f68b245f",36.6,0.09149999999999998,"Will Fed cut interest rates 6+ times in 2024?",{"condition_id":169,"outcome":29,"usdc":170,"entry_price":171,"won":12,"source":130,"end_date_iso":172,"captured_at":13,"question":173,"event_slug":35,"category":38},"0x119db6dda44f109bcdc2ec5e1d9cb8c21fa1a7e66489f59b1190fdfb25c0d515",2665.5018860000005,0.5187515148342644,"2026-07-01T03:59:00Z","Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?",{"condition_id":175,"outcome":29,"usdc":176,"entry_price":177,"won":12,"source":130,"end_date_iso":131,"captured_at":13,"question":178,"event_slug":133,"category":134},"0x13d3e3531ecc4d6096ffe53c9a34f73ea56ed9b4404f87366e708d3d3a7be699",28.8,0.144,"Will Fed cut interest rates 5 times in 2024?",{"condition_id":180,"outcome":181,"usdc":182,"entry_price":183,"won":14,"source":130,"end_date_iso":184,"captured_at":13,"question":185,"event_slug":186,"category":134},"0x19489d6de9495485e7e11e37401b22759cb981f558913e5b9ebe30ae8630b09a","No",2972.8928769999998,0.3416073529291962,"2025-02-28T12:00:00Z","Will fewer than 50k federal employees accept the buyout?","how-many-federal-employees-will-accept-buyout",{"condition_id":188,"outcome":29,"usdc":189,"entry_price":190,"won":12,"source":130,"end_date_iso":191,"captured_at":13,"question":192,"event_slug":193,"category":134},"0x1d54eb5eac2cee8f595f3097c65da7d07f8ab5dee63d7c0c6883eb70e1e9af30",8972.188728,0.1677107450710486,"2026-03-31T00:00:00Z","Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?","russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-by-march-31-2026",{"condition_id":195,"outcome":181,"usdc":196,"entry_price":197,"won":14,"source":130,"end_date_iso":131,"captured_at":13,"question":198,"event_slug":133,"category":134},"0x260fd9d6b10746909a26c2af7a68b409f757c95a07dc57ddd480774a36c8399b",272,0.68,"Will Fed cut interest rates 3 times in 2024?",{"condition_id":195,"outcome":29,"usdc":200,"entry_price":201,"won":12,"source":130,"end_date_iso":131,"captured_at":13,"question":198,"event_slug":133,"category":134},1319.9999990000001,0.26316838172989027,{"condition_id":203,"outcome":29,"usdc":204,"entry_price":205,"won":14,"source":130,"end_date_iso":206,"captured_at":13,"question":207,"event_slug":208,"category":134},"0x26a6c7e4a905dfc13f23c44a8e41d0b96ad60569ef49869c46c237dfd8f3c003",847.996165,0.5300000003815216,"2026-08-25T23:59:00Z","Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?","south-carolina-republican-senate-special-primary-winner-20260712135206676",{"condition_id":210,"outcome":181,"usdc":211,"entry_price":212,"won":14,"source":130,"end_date_iso":213,"captured_at":13,"question":214,"event_slug":215,"category":134},"0x2a3a29b57597777e5d2941c419716b02a7b8c43b5c19c4ac746ae2d9c720cbe1",178,0.89,"2024-11-07T12:00:00Z","No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 November meeting?","fed-interest-rates-november-2024",{"condition_id":210,"outcome":29,"usdc":217,"entry_price":218,"won":12,"source":130,"end_date_iso":213,"captured_at":13,"question":214,"event_slug":215,"category":134},1076.934879,0.12129169957351645,{"condition_id":220,"outcome":29,"usdc":221,"entry_price":222,"won":14,"source":130,"end_date_iso":223,"captured_at":13,"question":224,"event_slug":225,"category":38},"0x2bde6486e7067f48ee21344d8b5c1af458732536eb4d080932c88c3a7c2d2126",15596.703183000001,0.6731120218675666,"2026-12-31T12:00:00Z","Starmer out by December 31, 2026?","starmer-out-in-2025",{"condition_id":227,"outcome":29,"usdc":228,"entry_price":229,"won":12,"source":130,"end_date_iso":230,"captured_at":13,"question":231,"event_slug":232,"category":38},"0x2f6a547524c1d290f8a2bbff80be2b0e8ca1b3b716dd3a0e74bf8ddb3e3fd6b7",4044.630765,0.2773938373366028,"2026-06-01T03:59:00Z","Iran leadership change by May 31?","iran-leadership-change-by",{"condition_id":234,"outcome":29,"usdc":235,"entry_price":236,"won":14,"source":130,"end_date_iso":146,"captured_at":13,"question":237,"event_slug":238,"category":134},"0x3488f31e6449f9803f99a8b5dd232c7ad883637f1c86e6953305a2ef19c77f20",1478.8945669999998,0.26695293191256547,"US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?","us-strikes-iran-by-february-28-2026-227-967-547-688-589-491-592-418-452-924-384-915-464-672-196-157-993-596-269-535-381-391-471-256-988-997-296-225-762-973-292-827-345-182-558-215-794-879-189-761",{"condition_id":240,"outcome":29,"usdc":241,"entry_price":242,"won":12,"source":130,"end_date_iso":243,"captured_at":13,"question":244,"event_slug":232,"category":38},"0x352559d5f5bdcad9f6dabdf84af660639ca144aef053166c923033d2345d884a",1279.529544,0.1301633952683546,"2026-03-14T03:59:00Z","Iran leadership change by March 13?",{"condition_id":246,"outcome":29,"usdc":247,"entry_price":248,"won":14,"source":130,"end_date_iso":249,"captured_at":13,"question":250,"event_slug":251,"category":134},"0x3b4b3c1b3c57646192cc82d219b984ba8ce3f659277e114d08066bfd9bfb935a",794.9999989999999,0.2526894863347272,"2026-01-15T00:00:00Z","US x Venezuela military engagement by January 15, 2026?","us-x-venezuela-military-engagement-by",{"condition_id":253,"outcome":181,"usdc":254,"entry_price":255,"won":12,"source":130,"end_date_iso":213,"captured_at":13,"question":256,"event_slug":215,"category":134},"0x3d31558105899ab4025075b92cfb127fae4be0e9644a6895466aa50e2de37e72",98,0.49,"Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2024 meeting?",{"condition_id":253,"outcome":29,"usdc":258,"entry_price":259,"won":14,"source":130,"end_date_iso":213,"captured_at":13,"question":256,"event_slug":215,"category":134},130,0.65,{"condition_id":261,"outcome":29,"usdc":262,"entry_price":263,"won":12,"source":130,"end_date_iso":264,"captured_at":13,"question":265,"event_slug":225,"category":38},"0x3f75f0ebdcde8371e64cb1462ad7e893aff45003415986d02c29d823132aebd9",123.90892,0.016552197439214923,"2026-06-15T12:00:00Z","Starmer out by June 15, 2026?",{"condition_id":267,"outcome":29,"usdc":268,"entry_price":269,"won":12,"source":130,"end_date_iso":146,"captured_at":13,"question":270,"event_slug":148,"category":134},"0x42911c6ff6bc9f36adb99592a9ecd5e31e14e7dfe9beef7c2b18c36b0db23cc4",117,0.13,"US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026?",{"condition_id":272,"outcome":181,"usdc":273,"entry_price":274,"won":14,"source":130,"end_date_iso":131,"captured_at":13,"question":275,"event_slug":133,"category":134},"0x42e7fa3bd683a276dae0292f0ab910ac18eb76ce7cf014ec9203f6539768735a",172,0.86,"Will Fed cut interest rates 2 times in 2024?",{"condition_id":272,"outcome":29,"usdc":277,"entry_price":278,"won":12,"source":130,"end_date_iso":131,"captured_at":13,"question":275,"event_slug":133,"category":134},2197.109381,0.07325544090974802,{"condition_id":280,"outcome":181,"usdc":281,"entry_price":282,"won":12,"source":130,"end_date_iso":146,"captured_at":13,"question":283,"event_slug":284,"category":134},"0x43ec78527bd98a0588dd9455685b2cc82f5743140cb3a154603dc03c02b57de5",1650,0.75,"US government shutdown Saturday?","will-there-be-another-us-government-shutdown-by-january-31",{"condition_id":286,"outcome":29,"usdc":287,"entry_price":288,"won":14,"source":130,"end_date_iso":289,"captured_at":13,"question":290,"event_slug":291,"category":134},"0x4c5701bcde0b8fb7d7f48c8e9d20245a6caa58c61a77f981fad98f2bfa0b1bc7",96.59973400000001,0.023000000004045357,"2026-04-07T00:00:00Z","US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?","us-x-iran-ceasefire-by-april-7",{"condition_id":293,"outcome":29,"usdc":294,"entry_price":295,"won":12,"source":130,"end_date_iso":184,"captured_at":13,"question":296,"event_slug":186,"category":134},"0x4cc059a109f32baae6fcc0dfd71625e8590ea59f28f1d70867f2c9f3165230cf",101.87272,0.017616875818959935,"Will 150-200k federal employees accept the buyout?",{"condition_id":298,"outcome":29,"usdc":299,"entry_price":300,"won":14,"source":130,"end_date_iso":301,"captured_at":13,"question":302,"event_slug":303,"category":134},"0x4d848bab2da79b9ff7f2b2b0d9ddb048bb1fb47e9f782887f16e91d27de41279",236,0.59,"2024-11-05T12:00:00Z","Will a Republican win Arizona Presidential Election?","arizona-presidential-election-winner",{"condition_id":305,"outcome":181,"usdc":306,"entry_price":307,"won":12,"source":130,"end_date_iso":153,"captured_at":13,"question":308,"event_slug":309,"category":134},"0x561cd8d035bac38ed04e23d7882a126da38d7ead9d6679f722ad62c0c9d54ad2",134.55,0.23,"Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?","will-iran-close-the-strait-of-hormuz-by-march-31",{"condition_id":311,"outcome":29,"usdc":312,"entry_price":313,"won":14,"source":130,"end_date_iso":153,"captured_at":13,"question":314,"event_slug":315,"category":134},"0x61b66d02793b4a68ab0cc25be60d65f517fe18c7d654041281bb130341244fcc",6232.760682999999,0.2882031449603822,"Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?","will-trump-nominate-kevin-warsh-as-the-next-fed-chair",{"condition_id":317,"outcome":29,"usdc":318,"entry_price":319,"won":12,"source":130,"end_date_iso":320,"captured_at":13,"question":321,"event_slug":251,"category":134},"0x62b0cd598091a179147acbd4616400f804acfdff6f76f029944b481b37cbd45f",1149.502075,0.1711520556282979,"2025-12-31T00:00:00Z","US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?",{"condition_id":323,"outcome":181,"usdc":324,"entry_price":325,"won":12,"source":130,"end_date_iso":153,"captured_at":13,"question":326,"event_slug":327,"category":134},"0x6747bae2269c348786d0c0c0f4286ac006f13f16325d4dcbab954b46de029f19",9.4428,0.016,"Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?","clavicular-pregnancy-in-2026",{"condition_id":329,"outcome":181,"usdc":330,"entry_price":331,"won":12,"source":130,"end_date_iso":332,"captured_at":13,"question":333,"event_slug":334,"category":134},"0x6cc501fa617e3a46ececf6e3990fe1afeeaa6bc897d3c7049c005fd1bdc42c2f",154,0.77,"2024-09-18T12:00:00Z","Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting?","fed-interest-rates-september-2024",{"condition_id":329,"outcome":29,"usdc":336,"entry_price":78,"won":14,"source":130,"end_date_iso":332,"captured_at":13,"question":333,"event_slug":334,"category":134},124,{"condition_id":338,"outcome":29,"usdc":339,"entry_price":340,"won":14,"source":130,"end_date_iso":341,"captured_at":13,"question":342,"event_slug":343,"category":134},"0x6d0e09d0f04572d9b1adad84703458b0297bc5603b69dccbde93147ee4443246",10534.087424999998,0.6164769047128883,"2026-04-30T00:00:00Z","US forces enter Iran by April 30?","us-forces-enter-iran-by-april-30-899",{"condition_id":345,"outcome":181,"usdc":346,"entry_price":347,"won":14,"source":130,"end_date_iso":332,"captured_at":13,"question":348,"event_slug":334,"category":134},"0x70357debf15a956d82d8b2022aaf5f868763d1d0716d2c6e5ce35712e49a3b0f",80,0.4,"Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2024 meeting?",{"condition_id":345,"outcome":29,"usdc":350,"entry_price":351,"won":12,"source":130,"end_date_iso":332,"captured_at":13,"question":348,"event_slug":334,"category":134},108.8838,0.7408069125051026,{"condition_id":353,"outcome":29,"usdc":354,"entry_price":355,"won":12,"source":130,"end_date_iso":153,"captured_at":13,"question":356,"event_slug":357,"category":134},"0x705371444684d676041d1010a94cae3a657340fa4809b4307de3c173a35e0957",2050.10175,0.11494640014204568,"Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?","who-will-trump-nominate-as-fed-chair",{"condition_id":359,"outcome":29,"usdc":360,"entry_price":361,"won":12,"source":130,"end_date_iso":206,"captured_at":13,"question":362,"event_slug":208,"category":134},"0x70831611831c0792bfb971d613ec2db2e06d59a234967b45f8302b3671b515cd",2576.2175009999996,0.25990464650554207,"Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?",{"condition_id":364,"outcome":29,"usdc":365,"entry_price":366,"won":14,"source":130,"end_date_iso":191,"captured_at":13,"question":367,"event_slug":368,"category":134},"0x70909f0ba8256a89c301da58812ae47203df54957a07c7f8b10235e877ad63c2",3464.68,0.2,"Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?","khamenei-out-as-supreme-leader-of-iran-by-march-31",{"condition_id":370,"outcome":181,"usdc":371,"entry_price":372,"won":14,"source":130,"end_date_iso":373,"captured_at":13,"question":374,"event_slug":375,"category":376},"0x7167b89a9b1362fb6ddba0f145199e55a91b3da384249fa0bf533d5cc076e6fc",2756.5168959999996,0.6782246994875415,"2026-04-01T03:59:00Z","Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 31?","mojtaba-khamenei-public-appearance-by","Geopolitics",{"condition_id":378,"outcome":29,"usdc":379,"entry_price":380,"won":12,"source":130,"end_date_iso":381,"captured_at":13,"question":382,"event_slug":383,"category":134},"0x71da2bbc04a7eae0d8ef739c17025d85917c0ea7db07646b6400a4f6ccb9f304",417.79799900000006,0.24281425404495605,"2024-12-18T12:00:00Z","No change in Fed interest rates after December 2024 meeting?","fed-interest-rates-december-2024",{"condition_id":385,"outcome":29,"usdc":386,"entry_price":387,"won":12,"source":130,"end_date_iso":388,"captured_at":13,"question":389,"event_slug":390,"category":134},"0x7434b22007745d99095c102119fdb6b975d34869212e9dda4c6c5c48db0683a7",4505.46154,0.058056797812945336,"2026-04-30","Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?","russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-by-april-30-2026",{"condition_id":392,"outcome":29,"usdc":393,"entry_price":394,"won":14,"source":130,"end_date_iso":301,"captured_at":13,"question":395,"event_slug":396,"category":134},"0x7606802127355512c8f8ff9c70ef27a2717a8554374d84452de4c7d28147338d",120,0.6,"Will a Republican win Georgia Presidential Election?","georgia-presidential-election-winner",{"condition_id":398,"outcome":29,"usdc":399,"entry_price":400,"won":14,"source":130,"end_date_iso":401,"captured_at":13,"question":402,"event_slug":403,"category":134},"0x773abaa5fe55e5cde51a261f444b7921652a4e059ead6b3be9fe56499c2d4609",3000,0.15,"2026-04-15T00:00:00Z","US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?","us-x-iran-ceasefire-by",{"condition_id":405,"outcome":29,"usdc":406,"entry_price":407,"won":12,"source":130,"end_date_iso":408,"captured_at":13,"question":409,"event_slug":410,"category":134},"0x78e302118fae27603c251cf31eff0b0c8fb1185533b7c4124984e663f4724c35",20.999999,0.0259999988,"2025-01-10T12:00:00Z","Will the Palisades wildfire be contained by Friday?","will-the-palisades-fire-be-contained-by-friday",{"condition_id":412,"outcome":29,"usdc":413,"entry_price":414,"won":14,"source":130,"end_date_iso":415,"captured_at":13,"question":416,"event_slug":403,"category":134},"0x80059ff4e694f878c0498f6f3a067ee7ca62dc2fc46251a4287b58355ce47bc5",1682,0.29,"","US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?",{"condition_id":418,"outcome":29,"usdc":419,"entry_price":420,"won":14,"source":130,"end_date_iso":421,"captured_at":13,"question":422,"event_slug":403,"category":134},"0x81b06cb917c9a2aabc67a7765bc3c640e88a699bbf451b29915049c0766cde04",2501.8938,0.5799999999999997,"2026-06-30T00:00:00Z","US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?",{"condition_id":424,"outcome":29,"usdc":425,"entry_price":426,"won":12,"source":130,"end_date_iso":427,"captured_at":13,"question":428,"event_slug":429,"category":134},"0x87ebcc9f6660a5b9613650c3d91bae01f4503b11eb61a782b993bbc3a5d41b04",10,0.05,"2024-12-29T00:00:00Z","Will 'Joker 2' gross most in 2024?","highest-grossing-movie-in-2024",{"condition_id":431,"outcome":29,"usdc":432,"entry_price":433,"won":12,"source":130,"end_date_iso":434,"captured_at":13,"question":435,"event_slug":436,"category":134},"0x8ee2f1640386310eb5e7ffa596ba9335f2d324e303d21b0dfea6998874445791",78.84229200000001,0.019385462508012062,"2025-12-31T12:00:00Z","Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?","russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-in-2025",{"condition_id":438,"outcome":181,"usdc":439,"entry_price":440,"won":14,"source":130,"end_date_iso":301,"captured_at":13,"question":441,"event_slug":442,"category":134},"0x8f20ff6ed2ba1e234f35e701a50c274ffb64fdd8d621254d017db0445486ab79",106,0.53,"Will a Democrat win Nevada Presidential Election?","nevada-presidential-election-winner",{"condition_id":444,"outcome":29,"usdc":445,"entry_price":446,"won":14,"source":130,"end_date_iso":131,"captured_at":13,"question":447,"event_slug":133,"category":134},"0x9d1f0296f3a016727193d2b45704e0debc3b8048fe0715f8bb1e91550d321872",12.0231,0.219,"Will Fed cut interest rates 4 times in 2024?",{"condition_id":449,"outcome":29,"usdc":450,"entry_price":451,"won":12,"source":130,"end_date_iso":452,"captured_at":13,"question":453,"event_slug":454,"category":38},"0xa3b36b2d6104d34af4e6c6215fc818e43352e78a748fbfb0b85e3a35f71dec9a",10656.71523,0.38723874150699306,"2026-09-16T00:00:00Z","Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?","fed-decision-in-september-762",{"condition_id":456,"outcome":29,"usdc":457,"entry_price":458,"won":14,"source":130,"end_date_iso":301,"captured_at":13,"question":459,"event_slug":460,"category":134},"0xa923afcb8297e3ade170f2f8c088f3c277557fadef2c67054d72cc59f8504b2b",90,0.45,"Will a Republican win Pennsylvania Presidential Election?","pennsylvania-presidential-election-winner",{"condition_id":462,"outcome":29,"usdc":463,"entry_price":464,"won":14,"source":130,"end_date_iso":160,"captured_at":13,"question":465,"event_slug":403,"category":134},"0xa9937410f8aae98cc6440a7480ad832be5a1a998afcf5a6e77c6f5aa4c0f259f",4784.6832,0.48,"US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?",{"condition_id":467,"outcome":29,"usdc":468,"entry_price":469,"won":12,"source":130,"end_date_iso":146,"captured_at":13,"question":470,"event_slug":148,"category":134},"0xabb86b080e9858dcb3f46954010e49b6f539c20036856c7f999395bfd58d01e6",92.4,0.14000000000000004,"US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?",{"condition_id":472,"outcome":29,"usdc":473,"entry_price":474,"won":14,"source":130,"end_date_iso":475,"captured_at":13,"question":476,"event_slug":477,"category":134},"0xacac1a4b66459802a709b2f2eeed96fed8f8982a6fa6a782c3bc29556cc5b5a0",1999.203699,0.33593122555853255,"2025-10-31T00:00:00Z","Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 31?","israel-x-hamas-ceasefire-by-october-31",{"condition_id":479,"outcome":29,"usdc":480,"entry_price":481,"won":14,"source":130,"end_date_iso":153,"captured_at":13,"question":482,"event_slug":483,"category":134},"0xaeea5f917fc5746387b5f9c0a4263dba035dbb3f0ac6ad72bf92183d21e26739",9487.4154,0.4176839564785946,"Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?","russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-before-2027",{"condition_id":485,"outcome":29,"usdc":486,"entry_price":487,"won":12,"source":130,"end_date_iso":146,"captured_at":13,"question":488,"event_slug":148,"category":134},"0xb02e8bc0b915c7d6fc79363f84ca301edeb3c5cd7a7c30cf9517cb4a49a96e35",1206.53,0.3900525337428271,"US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?",{"condition_id":490,"outcome":29,"usdc":491,"entry_price":492,"won":12,"source":130,"end_date_iso":493,"captured_at":13,"question":494,"event_slug":495,"category":134},"0xb050c89e1e5738c79e117d28da1f057ac2f193511aab87a01b517b466c7265dc",149.5,0.04,"2025-11-30T00:00:00Z","Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 30?","russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-by-november-30-513",{"condition_id":497,"outcome":29,"usdc":498,"entry_price":499,"won":12,"source":130,"end_date_iso":172,"captured_at":13,"question":500,"event_slug":232,"category":38},"0xb196a122933da9aff6cb8b0f3764d0dc5db1859f46c0481c711521eee8524291",2413.4959270000004,0.33000000019003484,"Iran leadership change by June 30?",{"condition_id":502,"outcome":29,"usdc":503,"entry_price":504,"won":12,"source":130,"end_date_iso":332,"captured_at":13,"question":505,"event_slug":334,"category":134},"0xb20072387cd12bc73f3a6fd30fdd5aa1644c8f72f958803d90fc05c51db0ac49",13.8,0.069,"No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?",{"condition_id":507,"outcome":29,"usdc":508,"entry_price":509,"won":12,"source":130,"end_date_iso":131,"captured_at":13,"question":510,"event_slug":133,"category":134},"0xb3e11395bc67c2ad811de3ea4f58d47778e7a7d209eb73bc04a21c5a7472c186",10.4,0.052,"Will Fed cut interest rates 1 time in 2024?",{"condition_id":512,"outcome":29,"usdc":513,"entry_price":366,"won":12,"source":130,"end_date_iso":514,"captured_at":13,"question":515,"event_slug":232,"category":38},"0xb412664463bbfe21be44b1963291205ab332afd4f7f6e0d027aec1ba7a9e6793",240,"2026-05-01T03:59:00Z","Iran leadership change by April 30?",{"condition_id":517,"outcome":29,"usdc":518,"entry_price":519,"won":12,"source":130,"end_date_iso":146,"captured_at":13,"question":520,"event_slug":521,"category":134},"0xb8c1bd306a8a4cedfb280e114e655c5092b3f37edccae05cd877d7f21a5774ce",1735.0019980000002,0.08428472522852894,"Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?","russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-by-january-31-2026",{"condition_id":523,"outcome":29,"usdc":524,"entry_price":525,"won":12,"source":130,"end_date_iso":526,"captured_at":13,"question":527,"event_slug":528,"category":134},"0xb8dd95abf4e54a9c86b51afa71291aafdbf46e74d36632aaef6519af6ef2448d",58.999998000000005,0.031379818243306844,"2025-12-19T00:00:00Z","No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after December 2025 meeting?","bank-of-japan-decision-in-december",{"condition_id":530,"outcome":29,"usdc":531,"entry_price":532,"won":12,"source":130,"end_date_iso":373,"captured_at":13,"question":533,"event_slug":35,"category":38},"0xbbdff003595b6febaef4b6cdfef66bf134c861e4c7c37f57099950ce1355e1a1",931.3199970000001,0.09442485834667992,"Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by March 31?",{"condition_id":535,"outcome":29,"usdc":536,"entry_price":537,"won":12,"source":130,"end_date_iso":172,"captured_at":13,"question":538,"event_slug":539,"category":38},"0xbca45186bc1f8ad2912f79f22c6e37c0946f6619bbfbd0f97ad93d9b525a6293",18.231689,0.06000000006616943,"Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, 2026?","ukraine-recognizes-russian-sovereignty-over-ukrainian-territory-in-2025",{"condition_id":541,"outcome":29,"usdc":542,"entry_price":543,"won":12,"source":130,"end_date_iso":427,"captured_at":13,"question":544,"event_slug":429,"category":134},"0xbce0ff6f8ee396ec39e76c8b60d747272e8bf4bd65f31d0e131b64aceb0be3b5",18.2,0.091,"Will 'Deadpool 3' gross most in 2024?",{"condition_id":546,"outcome":29,"usdc":547,"entry_price":548,"won":14,"source":130,"end_date_iso":153,"captured_at":13,"question":549,"event_slug":550,"category":134},"0xbe6525eb1b615ba8a490abc915d76cdffabb2aad4f71e26aaee5f57c3b096a71",3378.6919439999997,0.4532285069097201,"Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?","will-mojtaba-khamenei-be-the-next-supreme-leader-of-iran-573",{"condition_id":552,"outcome":29,"usdc":553,"entry_price":554,"won":14,"source":130,"end_date_iso":555,"captured_at":13,"question":556,"event_slug":225,"category":38},"0xbee2cd40473495f713c69b9dfbce9fc2837fa4011568222c83c83bb773e35053",5251.947521000002,0.3104056403028252,"2026-06-30T12:00:00Z","Starmer out by June 30, 2026?",{"condition_id":558,"outcome":29,"usdc":559,"entry_price":560,"won":14,"source":130,"end_date_iso":561,"captured_at":13,"question":562,"event_slug":563,"category":38},"0xc4c3dbcc37a957a817599b0bf9fb5bd6b62b19210b0f527fec57cb75c7ed150a",9892.2112,0.64,"2026-06-07T00:00:00Z","Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?","peru-presidential-election-winner",{"condition_id":565,"outcome":29,"usdc":566,"entry_price":567,"won":12,"source":130,"end_date_iso":388,"captured_at":13,"question":568,"event_slug":162,"category":38},"0xceb6dfaa2cf5abc9d47ebc867b984a7715104944249274e8a483a2e17473e5f5",9386.668680999997,0.35773490588150075,"US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?",{"condition_id":570,"outcome":29,"usdc":571,"entry_price":572,"won":12,"source":130,"end_date_iso":146,"captured_at":13,"question":573,"event_slug":148,"category":134},"0xd1047755d35a03b7ceea9923daae56ecf67784446daa63e87eebc471b4b9dbd9",525.721573,0.2920677237479447,"US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?",{"condition_id":575,"outcome":29,"usdc":576,"entry_price":577,"won":12,"source":130,"end_date_iso":493,"captured_at":13,"question":578,"event_slug":251,"category":134},"0xdb696d4fe889e38e950b9ff13d15f6c3f7fafea2f9dd8265f630385eb8c15367",272.929998,0.3699999991268091,"US x Venezuela military engagement by December 15?",{"condition_id":580,"outcome":29,"usdc":581,"entry_price":582,"won":12,"source":130,"end_date_iso":583,"captured_at":13,"question":584,"event_slug":585,"category":134},"0xdc6f95f94d2db24a1904537cb8cf83e0b25fa47bac926112891eef0df8fd06f2",450,0.09,"2026-04-10T00:00:00Z","US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026?","us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-833",{"condition_id":587,"outcome":181,"usdc":588,"entry_price":589,"won":14,"source":130,"end_date_iso":153,"captured_at":13,"question":590,"event_slug":591,"category":134},"0xdcc87b9ca36015e396bd0eebca29e854a136ed2b0b701049d1ee9da6bee3eb35",162.259999,0.2963472532392116,"Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?","will-trump-nominate-kevin-hassett-as-the-next-fed-chair",{"condition_id":593,"outcome":29,"usdc":594,"entry_price":595,"won":14,"source":130,"end_date_iso":301,"captured_at":13,"question":596,"event_slug":597,"category":134},"0xdd22472e552920b8438158ea7238bfadfa4f736aa4cee91a6b86c39ead110917",97.196898,0.4860000006848468,"Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?","presidential-election-winner-2024",{"condition_id":599,"outcome":29,"usdc":600,"entry_price":601,"won":14,"source":130,"end_date_iso":301,"captured_at":13,"question":602,"event_slug":442,"category":134},"0xdd2f4921a562fc4d18c0bde327d2a9315352a3ba4137656112b9b1770fd1f2a9",197.4598,0.5345853750981402,"Will a Republican win Nevada Presidential Election?",{"condition_id":604,"outcome":181,"usdc":605,"entry_price":300,"won":14,"source":130,"end_date_iso":301,"captured_at":13,"question":606,"event_slug":396,"category":134},"0xe2a9262148bec59cde1581988431069d083faeee3361779c4b0aa265138f7c44",118,"Will a Democrat win Georgia Presidential Election?",{"condition_id":608,"outcome":29,"usdc":609,"entry_price":610,"won":14,"source":130,"end_date_iso":421,"captured_at":13,"question":611,"event_slug":612,"category":134},"0xe546672750517f62c45a5a00067481981e62b9c20fa8220203232c9dc8fd2093",12913.882294000001,0.23723034034680832,"Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?","russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-by-june-30-2026",{"condition_id":614,"outcome":29,"usdc":615,"entry_price":616,"won":12,"source":130,"end_date_iso":184,"captured_at":13,"question":617,"event_slug":186,"category":134},"0xedead3c227817a54134cc77169e0af303054c1fa0b772c32e6f7aa713bc62763",41.089999,0.03677087987115933,"Will 100-150k federal employees accept the buyout?",{"condition_id":619,"outcome":29,"usdc":620,"entry_price":621,"won":12,"source":130,"end_date_iso":434,"captured_at":13,"question":622,"event_slug":623,"category":134},"0xf1f111ef03daf045896e26beb18882cf99b80f5ffb07b525ff8242d2bad47944",3.002999,0.04092911438569207,"Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair in 2025?","who-will-trump-announce-as-next-fed-chair",{"condition_id":625,"outcome":29,"usdc":626,"entry_price":627,"won":12,"source":130,"end_date_iso":191,"captured_at":13,"question":628,"event_slug":629,"category":134},"0xf64f880b571d7a70d858649d30f0843aa57307e304aeb617349df74ce34d044e",561.6039000000001,0.33,"Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?","will-crude-oil-cl-hit-high-120-by-end-of-march-766-813-597",{"condition_id":631,"outcome":29,"usdc":632,"entry_price":633,"won":12,"source":130,"end_date_iso":146,"captured_at":13,"question":634,"event_slug":148,"category":134},"0xfabc0ff190e456ad309ec0559554b4549f90aebcd636d9a6293a89abf5c78722",93.28699,0.08859920602317863,"US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026?",{"condition_id":636,"outcome":29,"usdc":637,"entry_price":638,"won":14,"source":130,"end_date_iso":639,"captured_at":13,"question":640,"event_slug":641,"category":38},"0xfbe85201ab2b4acff01cd5a3639039fc813d3448c64db081f70926bd9b9e74e9",11510.544048000007,0.7026104803547144,"2026-06-21T14:00:00Z","Will Abelardo de la Espriella  win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?","colombia-presidential-election",{"total":643,"wins":644},88,37,[646,652,657],{"category":647,"n":648,"wins":649,"hitRate":650,"roi":651},"Other",71,31,0.43661971830985913,1.127681189716881,{"category":38,"n":653,"wins":654,"hitRate":655,"roi":656},16,5,0.3125,-0.20981704260593959,{"category":376,"n":14,"wins":14,"hitRate":14,"roi":658},0.474437602693603,{"generatedAt":660},"2026-10-06T13:29:48.805Z"]