[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"whale-0xcb48f490d8579832e56954cb31dfee630d59be6d":3},{"stats":4,"positions":25,"signals":320,"history":321,"resolved":338,"resolvedSummary":914,"specialization":917,"meta":942},{"wallet_address":5,"total_trades":6,"resolved_trades":7,"win_rate":8,"roi":9,"brier_score":10,"p_value":11,"is_sharp":12,"updated_at":13,"is_profitable":12,"avg_position_size_usdc":14,"churn_ratio":15,"last_trade_at":16,"wash_suspect":17,"discovery_source":18,"avg_entry_price":19,"avg_edge":20,"total_pnl_usdc":21,"total_capital_usdc":22,"composite_score":23,"late_entry_share":24,"is_resolution_sniper":17},"0xcb48f490d8579832e56954cb31dfee630d59be6d",3841,933,0.5230439442658092,0.05936310663611626,0.16371499362400999,0.0020000000000000018,1,"2026-10-23T13:54:59.908Z",24.69780357449087,3.637310606060606,"2026-10-23T22:50:00.000Z",0,"trades",0.46194458231875696,0.06109936194705261,1367.9070780032412,23043.050734999983,4.442492675412531,0.004333694474539545,[26,39,49,57,65,74,83,92,100,108,117,127,134,141,149,158,166,174,181,189,196,204,211,219,227,235,243,251,258,266,273,281,288,296,304,312],{"token_id":27,"condition_id":28,"outcome":29,"size":30,"avg_price":31,"updated_at":32,"first_seen_at":33,"question":34,"event_slug":35,"active":12,"closed":17,"accepting_orders":12,"end_date_iso":36,"outcome_prices":37,"category":38},"50100838739790041081725661928040962915463448028276518599259026195484819209006","0x2f579cbdf1c55ff2109b04263c73ba59c2e3395458fdf12165f179ba0e65a28b","Yes",713.79,0.5469,"2026-10-25T12:12:00.632Z","2026-10-24T08:42:17.533Z","Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?","which-company-has-the-best-ai-model-end-of-november","2026-12-01T04:59:00Z","[\"0.41\", \"0.59\"]","Tech",{"token_id":40,"condition_id":41,"outcome":42,"size":43,"avg_price":44,"updated_at":32,"first_seen_at":33,"question":45,"event_slug":46,"active":12,"closed":17,"accepting_orders":12,"end_date_iso":47,"outcome_prices":48,"category":38},"21008054712840984827897314242328299554168760521364896244705775989734810366903","0x7334d055fd7f83f8ced331b6d9c7b741da2104c2c07116304b17e7191922b686","No",425.57,0.8655,"Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1510 by June 30, 2027?","kimi-k3pt1-pro-text-arena-debut-20261023","2027-07-01T03:59:00Z","[\"0.05\", \"0.95\"]",{"token_id":50,"condition_id":51,"outcome":29,"size":52,"avg_price":53,"updated_at":32,"first_seen_at":33,"question":54,"event_slug":55,"active":12,"closed":17,"accepting_orders":12,"end_date_iso":47,"outcome_prices":56,"category":38},"95476403999933535095054223492436329403771554730112073474134312610178178504701","0x18bcf90d67455703c0328e3dde40929d267808db93a1814afd98115644b47ea5",389.34,0.857,"Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 20% or higher?","kimi-k3pt1-pro-hle-diamond-debut-20261023","[\"0.945\", \"0.055\"]",{"token_id":58,"condition_id":59,"outcome":42,"size":60,"avg_price":61,"updated_at":32,"first_seen_at":33,"question":62,"event_slug":63,"active":12,"closed":17,"accepting_orders":12,"end_date_iso":47,"outcome_prices":64,"category":38},"99911040068677088408839700507274873996284949736670100973199161838408821342979","0x2d869407c67070a62837ff4e83fb253eef7bee045b94cbbf94f004e9a91d63cf",410,0.7897,"Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher?","gpt-astra-6pt1-hle-diamond-debut-20261020","[\"0.22\", \"0.78\"]",{"token_id":66,"condition_id":67,"outcome":29,"size":68,"avg_price":69,"updated_at":32,"first_seen_at":33,"question":70,"event_slug":71,"active":12,"closed":17,"accepting_orders":12,"end_date_iso":72,"outcome_prices":73,"category":38},"58303097180947736953285193875575351577484018073942647648409092202156176467204","0xfe990a9fae13a3efbc2bb21684d129d6fb94b7f2336325515bfb17802bd44f7f",321.2,0.8571,"Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of October 2026?","which-company-has-the-best-code-arena-webdev-ai-model-end-of-october","2026-11-01T03:59:00Z","[\"0.9405\", \"0.0595\"]",{"token_id":75,"condition_id":76,"outcome":29,"size":77,"avg_price":78,"updated_at":32,"first_seen_at":33,"question":79,"event_slug":80,"active":12,"closed":17,"accepting_orders":12,"end_date_iso":81,"outcome_prices":82,"category":38},"78007359714894669113821951075750973725238962315221791769699382360288362031038","0x6fef965d3aa8c73d74e43eeea447fddf9c8511f9833f0946d4db4da7a7147c4c",400.17,0.6673,"Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on November 2, 2026?","best-ai-model-on-november-2","2026-11-03T04:59:00Z","[\"0.81\", \"0.19\"]",{"token_id":84,"condition_id":85,"outcome":42,"size":86,"avg_price":87,"updated_at":32,"first_seen_at":33,"question":88,"event_slug":89,"active":12,"closed":17,"accepting_orders":12,"end_date_iso":90,"outcome_prices":91,"category":38},"56280858321308425599533260939424532811927303957581839314339029877090682774493","0x356dd951d62105a067f97bd17a13b3034ae4df3ca8868b9f6ee9a33a9d98ce2e",361.9,0.6236,"Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?","will-any-ai-model-reach-math-arena-score-by-december-31","2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","[\"0.33\", \"0.67\"]",{"token_id":93,"condition_id":94,"outcome":42,"size":95,"avg_price":96,"updated_at":32,"first_seen_at":33,"question":97,"event_slug":98,"active":12,"closed":17,"accepting_orders":12,"end_date_iso":47,"outcome_prices":99,"category":38},"5614645330911263008555162569219287191292069135850748739562857966268652498381","0x7cefbc64b52dde9282ca624c59142a138991eeba249cc4c4c1fdc2aaf48f9842",385,0.4617,"Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) debut at a score of at least 1450 by June 30, 2027?","next-gpt-terra-model-5pt7-text-arena-debut-20261022","[\"0.565\", \"0.435\"]",{"token_id":101,"condition_id":102,"outcome":42,"size":103,"avg_price":104,"updated_at":32,"first_seen_at":33,"question":105,"event_slug":106,"active":12,"closed":17,"accepting_orders":12,"end_date_iso":90,"outcome_prices":107,"category":38},"64761539036327073891648093049447312782868164217541016633724887138235152922847","0x7d1eec1cf7a040965c30f71e84753b57ecd00d6819ac6d668c7bc3d736295bfa",274.93,0.5737,"Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?","highest-grok-score-on-humanitys-last-exam-in-2026-20260723191502948","[\"0.4\", \"0.6\"]",{"token_id":109,"condition_id":110,"outcome":42,"size":111,"avg_price":112,"updated_at":32,"first_seen_at":33,"question":113,"event_slug":114,"active":12,"closed":17,"accepting_orders":12,"end_date_iso":115,"outcome_prices":116,"category":38},"26667013601472649785918862077161526815468498408245236307132844694997454402909","0x2d98a5ffbd3bdf41a8f2f5daa241c821ce22c4529eba0a38176628c58ad72740",328.07,0.4592,"Muse Charm released by December 15, 2026?","muse-charm-released-by","2026-12-16T04:59:00Z","[\"0.8\", \"0.2\"]",{"token_id":118,"condition_id":119,"outcome":29,"size":120,"avg_price":121,"updated_at":32,"first_seen_at":33,"question":122,"event_slug":123,"active":12,"closed":17,"accepting_orders":12,"end_date_iso":124,"outcome_prices":125,"category":126},"8169066644348696082947674827291507049668202142072658095420744255648426033007","0xff98892eae3088f9a5a232548309ac22b84178ae000b2f14b7c144872f9a0092",252.87,0.5651,"Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?","best-chinese-ai-company-end-of-october","2026-10-31T16:00:00Z","[\"0.728\", \"0.272\"]","Geopolitics",{"token_id":128,"condition_id":129,"outcome":42,"size":130,"avg_price":131,"updated_at":32,"first_seen_at":32,"question":132,"event_slug":55,"active":12,"closed":17,"accepting_orders":12,"end_date_iso":47,"outcome_prices":133,"category":38},"108951050994595719859931875976058738020833690676476671483052333821336917365484","0x43a74036db2297577a79d4c4ae797b724a9bce1bb021b6383dae242981bfcc4f",150,0.78,"Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 35% or higher?","[\"0.175\", \"0.825\"]",{"token_id":135,"condition_id":136,"outcome":29,"size":137,"avg_price":138,"updated_at":32,"first_seen_at":32,"question":139,"event_slug":123,"active":12,"closed":17,"accepting_orders":12,"end_date_iso":124,"outcome_prices":140,"category":126},"45716727360086042230507439111913054021510548098774753949772504793739310065461","0x78c29ba8e37acdd426fb5dd351511d2f20c5cfcbe246fd1f02a5bca30d5423c2",381.6,0.2744,"Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?","[\"0.205\", \"0.795\"]",{"token_id":142,"condition_id":143,"outcome":42,"size":144,"avg_price":145,"updated_at":32,"first_seen_at":33,"question":146,"event_slug":147,"active":12,"closed":17,"accepting_orders":12,"end_date_iso":72,"outcome_prices":148,"category":38},"42682041853107621916766822303706630971031658285466251462090201504679539083441","0xd43add7620c35210517a0765718e014854f3dc4de50321cb4c261afb6af6f7f1",292.59,0.3425,"OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by October 31?","openai-reports-another-ai-sandbox-escape-byptptpt-20261019","[\"0.635\", \"0.365\"]",{"token_id":150,"condition_id":151,"outcome":29,"size":152,"avg_price":153,"updated_at":32,"first_seen_at":33,"question":154,"event_slug":155,"active":12,"closed":17,"accepting_orders":12,"end_date_iso":156,"outcome_prices":157,"category":38},"45517673568329213011628206692415591806951323843085365275618265124514828297886","0xdded1086ea6aca11f88b997328ff3b0f5bb9374e5ecb450422c862f67c9f3cbe",332.89,0.291,"Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?","anthropic-ipo-closing-market-cap-higher-strikes","2028-01-01T04:59:00Z","[\"0.3\", \"0.7\"]",{"token_id":159,"condition_id":160,"outcome":42,"size":161,"avg_price":162,"updated_at":32,"first_seen_at":33,"question":163,"event_slug":164,"active":12,"closed":17,"accepting_orders":12,"end_date_iso":90,"outcome_prices":165,"category":38},"42042542651490850191109451249805584030731682405270938581487095741144689088848","0x4669581cb5c701fd3632a5529ee702353d91d3d4320aba33a31683b388b83869",105.83,0.8299,"Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?","chatbot-arena-how-high-will-ai-score-by-december-31","[\"0.305\", \"0.695\"]",{"token_id":167,"condition_id":168,"outcome":42,"size":169,"avg_price":170,"updated_at":32,"first_seen_at":33,"question":171,"event_slug":172,"active":12,"closed":17,"accepting_orders":12,"end_date_iso":47,"outcome_prices":173,"category":38},"82169548338934717186011395162375519963693391885337465990999344896403941835209","0x0a9e0990377fad6dd541558d7d6f1ee8532dc44160806eef5b9691e7de0d65fb",355,0.2381,"Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut in the top 20 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?","kimi-k3pt1-pro-text-arena-rank-debut-20261023","[\"0.44\", \"0.56\"]",{"token_id":175,"condition_id":176,"outcome":42,"size":177,"avg_price":178,"updated_at":32,"first_seen_at":33,"question":179,"event_slug":106,"active":12,"closed":17,"accepting_orders":12,"end_date_iso":90,"outcome_prices":180,"category":38},"1347434368301380786216247046027463505607813014023736122052144539645642668712","0x7bbdd1da7d072e8edb1358702b4e629c3c154dfc9c1e4f433e283a46bc994779",96.11,0.8199,"Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?","[\"0.2\", \"0.8\"]",{"token_id":182,"condition_id":183,"outcome":42,"size":184,"avg_price":185,"updated_at":32,"first_seen_at":33,"question":186,"event_slug":187,"active":12,"closed":17,"accepting_orders":12,"end_date_iso":47,"outcome_prices":188,"category":38},"78816155935157207817767977078481434867891157770490444386105147311513010664049","0xd1fd3ef05f6c12c9c69a7586a2895e396cf12e3a53b73e34b1d606082c132302",119.99,0.63,"Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027?","gpt-astra-6pt1-text-arena-debut-20261020","[\"0.28\", \"0.72\"]",{"token_id":190,"condition_id":191,"outcome":29,"size":192,"avg_price":193,"updated_at":32,"first_seen_at":33,"question":194,"event_slug":155,"active":12,"closed":17,"accepting_orders":12,"end_date_iso":156,"outcome_prices":195,"category":38},"14887282092770509848305647762516934764168109933492314637062192765707086600213","0xe02dadd92c84112fce087b6f260d62c8df1648e071acaef35b0851c8dde64163",333.25,0.1969,"Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day?","[\"0.18\", \"0.82\"]",{"token_id":197,"condition_id":198,"outcome":42,"size":199,"avg_price":200,"updated_at":32,"first_seen_at":33,"question":201,"event_slug":202,"active":12,"closed":17,"accepting_orders":12,"end_date_iso":72,"outcome_prices":203,"category":38},"14638172704582630718706309723803475198105207678813499339869950047654198149002","0xdcf0dc76ed25470f8267318e950a1033e9074d79c4b17b3c7a084f0948cc20b8",62,0.9004,"Mistral announces a training pause by October 31?","which-ai-labs-announce-a-training-pause-by-october-31","[\"0.0805\", \"0.9195\"]",{"token_id":205,"condition_id":206,"outcome":42,"size":207,"avg_price":208,"updated_at":32,"first_seen_at":33,"question":209,"event_slug":98,"active":12,"closed":17,"accepting_orders":12,"end_date_iso":47,"outcome_prices":210,"category":38},"2052411183752040710419960684531836371888325350626430361257655234384784225544","0x98f8f1f32dab2e411688309e5ab1f33f3481f07b9c7c1d3a6c791ba0997c4dd2",89.78,0.61,"Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027?","[\"0.375\", \"0.625\"]",{"token_id":212,"condition_id":213,"outcome":42,"size":214,"avg_price":215,"updated_at":32,"first_seen_at":33,"question":216,"event_slug":217,"active":12,"closed":17,"accepting_orders":12,"end_date_iso":36,"outcome_prices":218,"category":38},"8305373872914052889549396698079605651074907076484241753129448682489405196857","0xc77e2cb7ee25b2ceaac65bdedf9e926b97fb84c66c086074686928cf1c350def",206.02,0.2382,"Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of November 2026?","which-company-has-the-best-code-arena-webdev-ai-model-end-of-november-2026","[\"0.76\", \"0.24\"]",{"token_id":220,"condition_id":221,"outcome":42,"size":222,"avg_price":223,"updated_at":32,"first_seen_at":33,"question":224,"event_slug":225,"active":12,"closed":17,"accepting_orders":12,"end_date_iso":47,"outcome_prices":226,"category":38},"2389863326658187329398561944057950586826728709780466197305450240513691023979","0xcbb9eb645c94fc66e62345f1335dc874fcbc772deb0a03e889c0d141a2eaaa35",116.73,0.4108,"Will the next Grok model (4.8+) debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027?","next-grok-model-4pt8-text-arena-debut","[\"0.535\", \"0.465\"]",{"token_id":228,"condition_id":229,"outcome":42,"size":230,"avg_price":231,"updated_at":32,"first_seen_at":33,"question":232,"event_slug":233,"active":12,"closed":17,"accepting_orders":12,"end_date_iso":156,"outcome_prices":234,"category":38},"99938474139504051247081423369189305348398632379478613528803803522989082219276","0xa1b504ea42655312c0e3b5b0d1ee97d7a3d0f414adc8b2c59fc94459ff051de1",200.3918,0.2312,"Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANT?","what-will-anthropics-public-ticker-be","[\"0.9925\", \"0.0075\"]",{"token_id":236,"condition_id":237,"outcome":42,"size":238,"avg_price":239,"updated_at":32,"first_seen_at":33,"question":240,"event_slug":241,"active":12,"closed":17,"accepting_orders":12,"end_date_iso":72,"outcome_prices":242,"category":38},"75525459945904932591421517151199741064013938950020885672800800127064119455635","0xef5f2e5be3c5b3aa325a72335857415d3a75a080e8b74a5c734ef651c044aa3b",51.5,0.8927,"Another Vatican x Anthropic meeting by October 31?","another-vatican-x-anthropic-meeting-by","[\"0.12\", \"0.88\"]",{"token_id":244,"condition_id":245,"outcome":29,"size":246,"avg_price":247,"updated_at":32,"first_seen_at":33,"question":248,"event_slug":249,"active":12,"closed":17,"accepting_orders":12,"end_date_iso":72,"outcome_prices":250,"category":38},"91512120739207194200181312180903695990280373919326482282606262144104242928642","0x01078120d65863f1b7a2ecf23d58735cb7262ededa8c0520fe812be7d91176e4",150.2529,0.2474,"Will Anthropic be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)?","3-ai-lab-end-of-october-style-control-on","[\"0.3125\", \"0.6875\"]",{"token_id":252,"condition_id":253,"outcome":42,"size":254,"avg_price":255,"updated_at":32,"first_seen_at":33,"question":256,"event_slug":164,"active":12,"closed":17,"accepting_orders":12,"end_date_iso":90,"outcome_prices":257,"category":38},"64585045408580006060972950251724577925745984782662932049026163588543980790989","0x0fe55fedea685f945d84614f47516732e7c95ccc890b9682b2eeb00a8c23ee2f",39.11,0.8399,"Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1540 by December 31?","[\"0.363\", \"0.637\"]",{"token_id":259,"condition_id":260,"outcome":29,"size":261,"avg_price":262,"updated_at":32,"first_seen_at":33,"question":263,"event_slug":264,"active":12,"closed":17,"accepting_orders":12,"end_date_iso":72,"outcome_prices":265,"category":38},"41881164235550170512319390833904027293889311455047359203670621607412497952347","0x4229c383fa8cd43a052c57b261c04accfccacef3980175859b7786729d43a62a",104.0063,0.2867,"Will Google be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?","second-best-text-arena-math-ai-lab-end-of-october","[\"0.255\", \"0.745\"]",{"token_id":267,"condition_id":268,"outcome":42,"size":269,"avg_price":270,"updated_at":32,"first_seen_at":32,"question":271,"event_slug":46,"active":12,"closed":17,"accepting_orders":12,"end_date_iso":47,"outcome_prices":272,"category":38},"101213593069017264958926865589866891504709583235279834022242483270934513354457","0xf09c6ec32d669912ecd752437167db7124e24b13dc33345f04fcd39c3bd5bee0",200,0.0825,"Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?","[\"0.785\", \"0.215\"]",{"token_id":274,"condition_id":275,"outcome":42,"size":276,"avg_price":277,"updated_at":32,"first_seen_at":33,"question":278,"event_slug":147,"active":12,"closed":17,"accepting_orders":12,"end_date_iso":279,"outcome_prices":280,"category":38},"73745309446780804072817301287404088216056369458125470460813334114843249935825","0x3227aa510c3a14d9bc93419c46910ac285f369963e7cb59dd327e2d405fa9350",151.64,0.1073,"OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by November 15?","2026-11-16T04:59:00Z","[\"0.79\", \"0.21\"]",{"token_id":282,"condition_id":283,"outcome":29,"size":284,"avg_price":285,"updated_at":32,"first_seen_at":33,"question":286,"event_slug":187,"active":12,"closed":17,"accepting_orders":12,"end_date_iso":47,"outcome_prices":287,"category":38},"98638534019813868395128369815768197938079818668305804306902818461052445043326","0x44de6dd4eed33c92baff0b6ab6132e57ccde9eee02b2b49b64bd697964d7ba32",20.11,0.5359,"Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027?","[\"0.575\", \"0.425\"]",{"token_id":289,"condition_id":290,"outcome":29,"size":291,"avg_price":292,"updated_at":32,"first_seen_at":33,"question":293,"event_slug":294,"active":12,"closed":17,"accepting_orders":12,"end_date_iso":124,"outcome_prices":295,"category":38},"115259396279115838784122216232451056238631574353820288254865029406753795237524","0x6bfaafe05727cfb17e52bd8e983a26e54d622968fb854f1bb9fd28bbdec0b63e",155.74,0.0565,"Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026?","which-company-has-1-ai-model-end-of-october-style-control-on","[\"0.056\", \"0.944\"]",{"token_id":297,"condition_id":298,"outcome":29,"size":299,"avg_price":300,"updated_at":32,"first_seen_at":33,"question":301,"event_slug":302,"active":12,"closed":17,"accepting_orders":12,"end_date_iso":124,"outcome_prices":303,"category":38},"34658384286827096553744803049577396056564976261626322594148652797517862186988","0x52d82844831ac22fa15838b42af36c7022001b24358fe38639576f7df0a9bb77",526.5014,0.0126,"Will Anthropic be the third-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?","third-best-ai-lab-end-of-october","[\"0.0295\", \"0.9705\"]",{"token_id":305,"condition_id":306,"outcome":29,"size":307,"avg_price":308,"updated_at":32,"first_seen_at":33,"question":309,"event_slug":310,"active":12,"closed":17,"accepting_orders":12,"end_date_iso":36,"outcome_prices":311,"category":38},"67951507296947189769443904734472330222921520261688843555565153588730607581303","0x48fb51389fbb30dab01458920a06b5fd711f4892d3ac54bf5df5358f8f1e9530",263.8,0.0129,"Will Alibaba (including Alibaba-ATH) have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of November 2026?","which-company-has-the-best-text-to-video-ai-end-of-november","[\"0.006\", \"0.994\"]",{"token_id":313,"condition_id":314,"outcome":42,"size":315,"avg_price":316,"updated_at":32,"first_seen_at":33,"question":317,"event_slug":318,"active":12,"closed":17,"accepting_orders":12,"end_date_iso":47,"outcome_prices":319,"category":38},"10474520494153449952613182670589262468070967928819995654415967418634279217649","0xdffc069c8980867ceac4202c5b5ff92921b4e7f7b98a7ab3e43d24ddce539a2e",26.85,0.015,"Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 50% or higher?","next-fable-model-5pt2-humanitys-last-exam-debut-20260928","[\"0.985\", \"0.015\"]",[],[322,329,336],{"recorded_date":323,"roi":324,"win_rate":325,"brier_score":326,"p_value":327,"resolved_trades":328,"is_sharp":17,"is_profitable":17},"2026-09-21",-0.16429427708263827,0.4983922829581994,0.11226182544217293,0.2005999999999999,311,{"recorded_date":330,"roi":331,"win_rate":332,"brier_score":333,"p_value":334,"resolved_trades":335,"is_sharp":17,"is_profitable":17},"2026-10-01",-0.11853185989649828,0.42900302114803623,0.13507076923871272,0.9361999999999999,662,{"recorded_date":337,"roi":9,"win_rate":8,"brier_score":10,"p_value":11,"resolved_trades":7,"is_sharp":12,"is_profitable":12},"2026-10-23",[339,346,349,358,366,373,380,383,389,395,402,408,415,418,425,430,437,444,451,454,462,469,476,482,488,493,499,506,511,514,520,526,532,538,543,546,553,560,566,573,580,586,593,599,606,612,619,626,631,637,644,651,656,659,665,671,676,682,686,692,697,703,710,715,720,724,730,735,740,743,749,755,758,764,770,776,783,789,794,800,803,810,816,819,824,831,835,842,849,854,859,865,871,878,883,888,893,899,902,907],{"condition_id":340,"outcome":42,"usdc":341,"entry_price":342,"won":12,"source":343,"end_date_iso":47,"captured_at":13,"question":344,"event_slug":345,"category":38},"0x001dbe01b0efec60aa43f777b3d7dbf7605f59fd7895ba9aee7a136405b53047",13.9975,0.55,"backfill","Will Mistral Large 4 debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?","mistral-large-4-text-arena-debut-20261007",{"condition_id":340,"outcome":29,"usdc":347,"entry_price":348,"won":17,"source":343,"end_date_iso":47,"captured_at":13,"question":344,"event_slug":345,"category":38},24.88691,0.32050558108995403,{"condition_id":350,"outcome":29,"usdc":351,"entry_price":352,"won":12,"source":343,"end_date_iso":353,"captured_at":354,"question":355,"event_slug":356,"category":357},"0x009cb79c526eff4af80e0e568c648a165a837c0417f4e1de3cde02bfc4a3ab42",0.189543,0.1700001256,"2026-06-30T00:00:00Z","2026-09-21T08:47:29.534Z","Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?","gemini-3pt5-released-by-june-30",null,{"condition_id":359,"outcome":29,"usdc":360,"entry_price":361,"won":17,"source":343,"end_date_iso":362,"captured_at":363,"question":364,"event_slug":365,"category":38},"0x0141393334ca9d16c7170bc7cf24dd5b7562bdae05b05d27bb83526ed9c85c62",0.5935,0.013,"2026-10-01T03:59:00Z","2026-10-01T08:10:27.715Z","Will DeepSeek be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of September 2026?","third-best-ai-agent-lab-end-of-september-20260812152722531",{"condition_id":367,"outcome":29,"usdc":368,"entry_price":369,"won":17,"source":343,"end_date_iso":370,"captured_at":363,"question":371,"event_slug":372,"category":38},"0x01b4ec752810197adfc15104ab664968bd348e22ac3e5949c61d5dac2aa3ca23",32.555,0.4,"2027-06-30T23:59:00Z","Will the next Grok model (4.7+) debut at a score of at least 1450 by June 30, 2027?","next-grok-model-4pt7-text-arena-debut",{"condition_id":374,"outcome":42,"usdc":375,"entry_price":376,"won":17,"source":343,"end_date_iso":377,"captured_at":13,"question":378,"event_slug":379,"category":38},"0x045fdf4be2f890a3f846357a5160834685bb7dfae65909d3d307e5547898e1ad",42.2194,0.41,"2026-10-17T03:59:00Z","Gemini 4.0 released by October 16, 2026?","gemini-4pt0-released-by-june-30-2026",{"condition_id":374,"outcome":29,"usdc":381,"entry_price":382,"won":12,"source":343,"end_date_iso":377,"captured_at":13,"question":378,"event_slug":379,"category":38},30,0.6,{"condition_id":384,"outcome":42,"usdc":385,"entry_price":386,"won":17,"source":343,"end_date_iso":90,"captured_at":363,"question":387,"event_slug":388,"category":38},"0x0630fc3f77c2db5ecc473cf4f782e58143a16db6440e714805c8619aa8073a71",8.94708,0.29,"Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1505 by December 31, 2026?","next-claude-opus-model-text-arena-debut-20261231",{"condition_id":390,"outcome":42,"usdc":391,"entry_price":392,"won":12,"source":343,"end_date_iso":47,"captured_at":13,"question":393,"event_slug":394,"category":38},"0x06fd2104695d577073c504d31b1fcbd30955d00d06cc2fabac6e2e8b695d484d",356.80555999999996,0.8059691505047069,"Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027?","next-claude-haiku-model-4pt6-text-arena-debut-20260930",{"condition_id":396,"outcome":42,"usdc":397,"entry_price":398,"won":12,"source":343,"end_date_iso":399,"captured_at":354,"question":400,"event_slug":401,"category":357},"0x07c81e8558ed7ce38c895d7fb00bc1a6051ef3c48e557726b017c4ea3638dcf1",51.917559999999995,0.8098464912280702,"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026?","next-grok-model-text-arena-debut-20260804194832572",{"condition_id":403,"outcome":42,"usdc":404,"entry_price":405,"won":12,"source":343,"end_date_iso":90,"captured_at":13,"question":406,"event_slug":407,"category":38},"0x0a657536c4e5c5d55faf0480f401496f1d36ac1f468355655b796af395ace49e",180.85423999999998,0.5326821636119803,"Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1490 by December 31, 2026?","next-sonnet-model-text-arena-debut-20260827110151621",{"condition_id":409,"outcome":42,"usdc":410,"entry_price":411,"won":17,"source":343,"end_date_iso":412,"captured_at":354,"question":413,"event_slug":414,"category":357},"0x0ca328688c590d82b80ec763d0a34353b9b9bd56dd2016243909c038c91d2615",37.00352000000001,0.2165186168607809,"2026-09-30T03:59:00Z","Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?","next-mythos-class-model-released-by",{"condition_id":409,"outcome":29,"usdc":416,"entry_price":417,"won":12,"source":343,"end_date_iso":412,"captured_at":354,"question":413,"event_slug":414,"category":357},14.12812,0.5760653702937526,{"condition_id":419,"outcome":29,"usdc":420,"entry_price":421,"won":17,"source":343,"end_date_iso":422,"captured_at":354,"question":423,"event_slug":424,"category":38},"0x0dcad5c0b7116b5a04e3f296fc20dd3d4c89f526fcd7c6359e01fa3b600319fb",32.64102,0.1885093315842824,"2026-08-22T03:59:00Z","Will GPT-6 be released by August 21, 2026?","gpt-6-released-by",{"condition_id":426,"outcome":29,"usdc":427,"entry_price":428,"won":17,"source":343,"end_date_iso":47,"captured_at":13,"question":429,"event_slug":345,"category":38},"0x0edb2842978e65dc8ab149c7c5f2a86899ea895ada224f37a7024210f7504818",295.38164,0.6912941176470588,"Will Mistral Large 4 debut at a score of at least 1450 by June 30, 2027?",{"condition_id":431,"outcome":42,"usdc":432,"entry_price":433,"won":17,"source":343,"end_date_iso":434,"captured_at":363,"question":435,"event_slug":436,"category":38},"0x0f3ae5d23882fb840762fd35de11fc31b0fbdc9e41e8666cdfae9d627f93f517",4.999999,0.2699999681,"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?","elon-musk-trillionaire-before-2027",{"condition_id":438,"outcome":29,"usdc":439,"entry_price":440,"won":17,"source":343,"end_date_iso":441,"captured_at":354,"question":442,"event_slug":443,"category":38},"0x0fc751446629fdf52b5ce3f816a52d443dafe0e6dc68a4001ec14bdb38fb39d5",21.77102,0.653,"2026-06-28T00:00:00Z","Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?","when-will-gpt-5pt6-be-released",{"condition_id":445,"outcome":42,"usdc":446,"entry_price":447,"won":12,"source":343,"end_date_iso":448,"captured_at":354,"question":449,"event_slug":450,"category":357},"0x11b117ac8c42ff5a998dbf18fffb1674e79682ce886b1d575f998931de20f0db",30.4829,0.6054200595829196,"2026-05-03T00:00:00Z","Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 27 - May 3?","how-many-5pt5-or-above-earthquakes-april-27-may-3",{"condition_id":445,"outcome":29,"usdc":452,"entry_price":453,"won":17,"source":343,"end_date_iso":448,"captured_at":354,"question":449,"event_slug":450,"category":357},20.06,0.17,{"condition_id":455,"outcome":29,"usdc":456,"entry_price":457,"won":12,"source":343,"end_date_iso":458,"captured_at":354,"question":459,"event_slug":460,"category":461},"0x178b29c0bb3a1c482f37f42e2420a1aa686b960ef0004e9ed07d7f46581779c9",819.8401519999999,0.759300903416531,"2026-07-01T17:00:00Z","Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?","claude-fable-5-restored-for-us-customers-by-20260613193753196","Politics",{"condition_id":463,"outcome":42,"usdc":464,"entry_price":465,"won":12,"source":343,"end_date_iso":466,"captured_at":13,"question":467,"event_slug":468,"category":38},"0x179eb1cb19e5204e1a81a8b24a11c08097dbe9c3ca412d74b6d70568a5f4f84b",27.26129,0.7575611672278338,"2026-10-07T03:59:00Z","Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 6, 2026?","next-fable-model-5pt2-released-onptptpt-20261002",{"condition_id":470,"outcome":42,"usdc":471,"entry_price":472,"won":17,"source":343,"end_date_iso":473,"captured_at":363,"question":474,"event_slug":475,"category":38},"0x17b5aa1a75422f7de5f7d2e323a4ccfd1b82f1a09655fcd3d423de36a4d96800",35.071,0.2125,"2026-09-28T03:59:00Z","Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 27, 2026?","next-claude-opus-released-byptptpt-20260727142323912",{"condition_id":477,"outcome":29,"usdc":478,"entry_price":479,"won":12,"source":343,"end_date_iso":36,"captured_at":13,"question":480,"event_slug":481,"category":38},"0x18dca309aa82e29bb28d9ca780222f1e3a23e7b1d2eb3251381d5781e9f9c9aa",101.64289,0.8712189196174722,"Gemini Argon released by November 30, 2026?","gemini-argon-released-byptptpt",{"condition_id":483,"outcome":29,"usdc":484,"entry_price":485,"won":17,"source":343,"end_date_iso":353,"captured_at":354,"question":486,"event_slug":487,"category":38},"0x198d1d520cf88f5ea7c10aac8bd164bb9982a1aecbf8c00c4497babe1f6acff0",19.541919999999998,0.1936734693877551,"Will Meta have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?","which-company-has-the-3-ai-model-end-of-june-style-control-on",{"condition_id":489,"outcome":29,"usdc":490,"entry_price":491,"won":17,"source":343,"end_date_iso":362,"captured_at":363,"question":492,"event_slug":365,"category":38},"0x1b3b1c9bfea0928c2cb9257d6a0d3b2b624dbfbd4f85eee32191927e55bbf0eb",90.79714000000001,0.8327850630813151,"Will Moonshot be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of September 2026?",{"condition_id":494,"outcome":42,"usdc":495,"entry_price":496,"won":12,"source":343,"end_date_iso":497,"captured_at":354,"question":498,"event_slug":460,"category":461},"0x1bc721516922d9319293bbb2eeb8b11b3e20495c3aab31964ea8984879bcdfee",458.33029999999997,0.8531718190829428,"2026-06-15T17:00:00Z","Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?",{"condition_id":500,"outcome":42,"usdc":501,"entry_price":502,"won":12,"source":343,"end_date_iso":503,"captured_at":13,"question":504,"event_slug":505,"category":38},"0x1cfd39818e187caf0cb654201acdd81e377ecbdc7e90622335a7f5faf1b02ceb",135.53055999999998,0.8124541062801932,"2026-10-22T03:59:00Z","Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 21, 2026?","next-fable-model-5pt2-released-byptptpt",{"condition_id":507,"outcome":42,"usdc":508,"entry_price":509,"won":17,"source":343,"end_date_iso":90,"captured_at":363,"question":510,"event_slug":388,"category":38},"0x1d0882c6d5aef7647c7ca1cdb2ad1fe9f85c8c078c688a9994d590e36853276b",268.37257,0.49588830478774526,"Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026?",{"condition_id":507,"outcome":29,"usdc":512,"entry_price":513,"won":12,"source":343,"end_date_iso":90,"captured_at":363,"question":510,"event_slug":388,"category":38},6.57408,0.32,{"condition_id":515,"outcome":42,"usdc":516,"entry_price":517,"won":12,"source":343,"end_date_iso":370,"captured_at":363,"question":518,"event_slug":519,"category":38},"0x1e6ba10636972611b90244495568c2f818fc314a2f285ff04639f38df2a17098",95.67168000000001,0.7825742574257425,"Will the next GPT Sol model (5.7+) debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?","next-gpt-sol-model-5pt7-text-arena-debut-20260921193139678",{"condition_id":521,"outcome":42,"usdc":522,"entry_price":523,"won":12,"source":343,"end_date_iso":524,"captured_at":354,"question":525,"event_slug":475,"category":38},"0x1e6dc009746b67e8821a9af08117d6c23941cff319ef83bbcfd9db6eab264bc8",78.928153,0.7900000112936053,"2026-09-21T03:59:00Z","Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 20, 2026?",{"condition_id":527,"outcome":29,"usdc":528,"entry_price":529,"won":17,"source":343,"end_date_iso":353,"captured_at":354,"question":530,"event_slug":531,"category":38},"0x1ea03c4c7961402d2e494e7382aa127ed94745f08e11f21829f0e622fc1874a4",34.5987,0.37,"Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?","which-companies-will-have-a-1-ai-model-by-june-30",{"condition_id":533,"outcome":42,"usdc":534,"entry_price":535,"won":12,"source":343,"end_date_iso":399,"captured_at":363,"question":536,"event_slug":537,"category":357},"0x1eef96307cc02084bdb459885661746dbafd0c11b70403ca08fe5d16663974dc",81.48938,0.89,"Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?","next-grok-model-4pt6-humanitys-last-exam-debut-20260810180408165",{"condition_id":539,"outcome":42,"usdc":540,"entry_price":541,"won":12,"source":343,"end_date_iso":353,"captured_at":354,"question":542,"event_slug":531,"category":38},"0x20923dc0347ba0d72fef151d71911780b54eb15efc8499692f494e1e36a279ce",16,0.8,"Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?",{"condition_id":539,"outcome":29,"usdc":544,"entry_price":545,"won":17,"source":343,"end_date_iso":353,"captured_at":354,"question":542,"event_slug":531,"category":38},20.760726000000002,0.13797516418101588,{"condition_id":547,"outcome":29,"usdc":548,"entry_price":549,"won":12,"source":343,"end_date_iso":550,"captured_at":363,"question":551,"event_slug":552,"category":357},"0x211250145129ca494755a89d2bb0638a76c06f5041646b9803ac2f9b9d154fa8",47.6215,0.787,"2026-08-31T00:00:00Z","Next Google Gemini Flash Model released by August 31, 2026?","next-google-gemini-flash-model-3pt7-released-byptptpt",{"condition_id":554,"outcome":42,"usdc":555,"entry_price":556,"won":12,"source":343,"end_date_iso":557,"captured_at":13,"question":558,"event_slug":559,"category":38},"0x2166dc1ecfa29b5f548a62f00ca0ea1d78bcd7c5f649b68044f143bacf5f4fe1",13.77408,0.68,"2026-10-06T03:59:00Z","OpenAI resumes training by October 5, 2026?","openai-resumes-training-by",{"condition_id":561,"outcome":42,"usdc":562,"entry_price":563,"won":17,"source":343,"end_date_iso":564,"captured_at":363,"question":565,"event_slug":475,"category":38},"0x21bf1efeebc29453cbf2fddc7aad97bcb44b6219c2f20d8b6b6ac299b7830dd1",123.41008,0.2844800594615939,"2026-09-25T03:59:00Z","Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 24, 2026?",{"condition_id":567,"outcome":42,"usdc":568,"entry_price":569,"won":17,"source":343,"end_date_iso":570,"captured_at":363,"question":571,"event_slug":572,"category":38},"0x251caae983a3f50c832c2c02e38043c445c8175f2c0faff2e5926b86632b5488",69.747476,0.5591093161603601,"2026-09-29T03:59:00Z","Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released on September 28, 2026?","next-claude-sonnet-released-onptptpt-20260921225443",{"condition_id":574,"outcome":29,"usdc":575,"entry_price":576,"won":17,"source":343,"end_date_iso":577,"captured_at":363,"question":578,"event_slug":579,"category":126},"0x2617cadbd861eb62a1c7bedd55c00c7d23efc266e9d9330c5ac76396f4d326bb",47.8962,0.59,"2026-09-30T16:00:00Z","Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?","best-chinese-ai-company-end-of-september-20260717140852824",{"condition_id":581,"outcome":42,"usdc":582,"entry_price":583,"won":12,"source":343,"end_date_iso":584,"captured_at":13,"question":585,"event_slug":379,"category":38},"0x269f6dcc7ebcfd0fc589c671356b4399fc222b78def4281f85b6f5e40c8018e6",45.92112,0.8345454545454545,"2026-10-10T03:59:00Z","Gemini 4.0 released by October 9, 2026?",{"condition_id":587,"outcome":29,"usdc":588,"entry_price":589,"won":17,"source":343,"end_date_iso":590,"captured_at":363,"question":591,"event_slug":592,"category":357},"0x2b19fc6b6b8a65e5fa3cce108615c2bf5d85f4a3422fdf0e5aeb6688956ac98a",21.54168,0.35,"","Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1490 and 1500?","claude-opus-4pt8-arena-debut",{"condition_id":594,"outcome":29,"usdc":595,"entry_price":453,"won":17,"source":343,"end_date_iso":596,"captured_at":13,"question":597,"event_slug":598,"category":38},"0x2b1a3354c516a8650800ec48e38d52c39a5f4c13abcb5fdcc6d72d03302d7937",21.07728,"2026-10-20T03:59:00Z","Will any other model be the best AI model on October 19, 2026?","best-ai-model-on-october-19-20261006t124330088z",{"condition_id":600,"outcome":29,"usdc":601,"entry_price":602,"won":17,"source":343,"end_date_iso":362,"captured_at":363,"question":603,"event_slug":604,"category":605},"0x2d3857c63af0dbcbe2b16e64a244ce46fd609af984d80f50cdb3b9bab3b5c323",3.94941,0.037,"Will $LAPTOP reach $10 by September 30, 2026?","what-price-will-laptop-hit-in-september-2026","Crypto",{"condition_id":607,"outcome":29,"usdc":608,"entry_price":609,"won":12,"source":343,"end_date_iso":362,"captured_at":354,"question":610,"event_slug":611,"category":38},"0x2ef481c2bb5b69beb5ff2160b4c3a31ca17eb31c2d08abbbbef82d854814248b",91.51734,0.36428571428571427,"Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?","will-any-ai-model-reach-overall-arena-score-by-september-30",{"condition_id":613,"outcome":42,"usdc":614,"entry_price":615,"won":12,"source":343,"end_date_iso":616,"captured_at":363,"question":617,"event_slug":618,"category":357},"0x32a9214a40b89dfb9ed00c1d771adab28434ffe01e9a1ba908559c6fa25e545f",31.7584,0.26320570197248466,"2026-06-06T00:00:00Z","Will OpenAI file for an IPO by June 5, 2026?","openai-files-ipo-by",{"condition_id":620,"outcome":29,"usdc":621,"entry_price":622,"won":12,"source":343,"end_date_iso":623,"captured_at":354,"question":624,"event_slug":625,"category":357},"0x33202ea27cf7fbf8d387c6ef1e0eb956dc999ffb96385b6fe67b84ea4a364952",118.85254,0.4433475479744137,"2026-07-19T23:59:00Z","Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?","will-anthropic-extend-claude-fable-5-paid-plan-access-again-by-july-19-20260712201937544",{"condition_id":627,"outcome":42,"usdc":628,"entry_price":629,"won":12,"source":343,"end_date_iso":90,"captured_at":13,"question":630,"event_slug":407,"category":38},"0x338fddd433928b5ab4d55a9d629a3295b23464b31db1e1b54018e05e05621124",43.41331,0.8292307692307693,"Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026?",{"condition_id":632,"outcome":29,"usdc":633,"entry_price":634,"won":12,"source":343,"end_date_iso":47,"captured_at":13,"question":635,"event_slug":636,"category":38},"0x35e36003e6d7a759cf7a7bd37b4c529e6de57fbe7dbe8d6160814df4e006316f",43.73374,0.86,"Will Gemini Argon debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 50% or higher?","gemini-argon-humanitys-last-exam-debut-20261002",{"condition_id":638,"outcome":29,"usdc":639,"entry_price":640,"won":17,"source":343,"end_date_iso":641,"captured_at":354,"question":642,"event_slug":643,"category":605},"0x3733a1b647e7364095736ab0966465d896a84cf3b6bc1695ca1f26c3239b3868",34.872,0.12,"2026-07-01T04:00:00Z","MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?","microstrategy-sell-any-bitcoin-in-2025",{"condition_id":645,"outcome":42,"usdc":646,"entry_price":647,"won":17,"source":343,"end_date_iso":648,"captured_at":363,"question":649,"event_slug":650,"category":357},"0x3900e3acc7c1bfcb6490ff6befe532b6c90d35f418bb76631a09e1f681be709f",266.10582,0.31368460560566624,"2026-09-02T23:59:00Z","Next Google Gemini Flash Model (3.8+) released by September 2, 2026?","next-google-gemini-flash-model-3pt8-released-byptptpt",{"condition_id":652,"outcome":42,"usdc":653,"entry_price":654,"won":12,"source":343,"end_date_iso":47,"captured_at":13,"question":655,"event_slug":394,"category":38},"0x3a2e70ca0e2ef6e81ea24c749affe96f7cc2218f665e4feab8b5208453cb6a47",490.65835000000004,0.33521146623085357,"Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027?",{"condition_id":652,"outcome":29,"usdc":657,"entry_price":658,"won":17,"source":343,"end_date_iso":47,"captured_at":13,"question":655,"event_slug":394,"category":38},12.12473,0.48794250513347015,{"condition_id":660,"outcome":42,"usdc":661,"entry_price":662,"won":12,"source":343,"end_date_iso":663,"captured_at":13,"question":664,"event_slug":505,"category":38},"0x3ce7fcccc9417cd3f73f421a08b134acf17502bf97bfaf4221d179e904ae0fd3",101.55502,0.5438167938931299,"2026-10-18T03:59:00Z","Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026?",{"condition_id":666,"outcome":42,"usdc":667,"entry_price":668,"won":12,"source":343,"end_date_iso":362,"captured_at":363,"question":669,"event_slug":670,"category":38},"0x3e17b452536476db05dc4a38d16aa50113006c347d42519e1561c4e41b869593",89.4376,0.5123953040126161,"Will Google be the third-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?","third-best-ai-lab-end-of-september-20260722221654811",{"condition_id":672,"outcome":29,"usdc":673,"entry_price":674,"won":17,"source":343,"end_date_iso":353,"captured_at":354,"question":675,"event_slug":487,"category":38},"0x3e2450588be1051f60a6ef4197370578c89e48940a2b40829955f8da6f4a296f",4.8876290000000004,0.05900654331799768,"Will OpenAI have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?",{"condition_id":677,"outcome":42,"usdc":678,"entry_price":679,"won":12,"source":343,"end_date_iso":353,"captured_at":354,"question":680,"event_slug":681,"category":461},"0x3f0bc2757babb8bb9971c9f782fe81f9db734c12d84822f1120a90681c991ff8",17.6,0.88,"Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?","israeli-parliament-dissolved-by-october-31",{"condition_id":683,"outcome":29,"usdc":432,"entry_price":684,"won":12,"source":343,"end_date_iso":685,"captured_at":354,"question":357,"event_slug":357,"category":357},"0x4450e282179e0c5bfa886412c6bc3571726b446690c954a6bc3398411ada1146",0.4399999648,"2026-04-24",{"condition_id":687,"outcome":42,"usdc":688,"entry_price":689,"won":12,"source":343,"end_date_iso":362,"captured_at":363,"question":690,"event_slug":691,"category":38},"0x45bbb5de81d631faff6507f7267e273eb449c3b906f948b44eb235066d9e2099",239.31374,0.7041243794405304,"Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?","ai-lab-announces-another-millennium-prize-solution-by",{"condition_id":693,"outcome":42,"usdc":694,"entry_price":695,"won":12,"source":343,"end_date_iso":412,"captured_at":363,"question":696,"event_slug":572,"category":38},"0x48fbe89f7e1c5d6eb2d4cbd282dede48f6f685f85a8ec0dd4956e37f1a6871cf",12.247200000000001,0.54,"Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released on September 29, 2026?",{"condition_id":698,"outcome":42,"usdc":699,"entry_price":700,"won":17,"source":343,"end_date_iso":701,"captured_at":13,"question":702,"event_slug":379,"category":38},"0x4a385ded605f77a8b019fe84ae313896987174523617465c6729cbdd3a19b295",75.69032,0.3973684210526316,"2026-10-15T03:59:00Z","Gemini 4.0 released by October 14, 2026?",{"condition_id":704,"outcome":29,"usdc":705,"entry_price":706,"won":17,"source":343,"end_date_iso":707,"captured_at":354,"question":708,"event_slug":709,"category":357},"0x4a8c3c53e6fa4ee4bb684fee96445825966d261dcd750622b6ce5fc1a8680fb5",6.13755,0.09782941862402132,"2026-05-10T00:00:00Z","Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in April 2026?","april-2026-temperature-increase-c",{"condition_id":711,"outcome":29,"usdc":712,"entry_price":342,"won":12,"source":343,"end_date_iso":362,"captured_at":363,"question":713,"event_slug":714,"category":38},"0x4aef7452ee32d7aa96c18d468eab867b01d25daf432cfb178b99a550ec0d2667",55,"Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of September 2026?","which-company-has-the-best-ai-model-on-livebench-coding-end-of-september-20260728165808281",{"condition_id":716,"outcome":42,"usdc":717,"entry_price":718,"won":12,"source":343,"end_date_iso":90,"captured_at":13,"question":719,"event_slug":407,"category":38},"0x4b5601d10e5804c56fc174efbbc8ed35fdbf0e3352ce8d3f8d3758b1d001dda0",690.59547,0.5964053152102334,"Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1480 by December 31, 2026?",{"condition_id":721,"outcome":29,"usdc":369,"entry_price":722,"won":17,"source":343,"end_date_iso":596,"captured_at":13,"question":723,"event_slug":598,"category":38},"0x4e8d31289f653abd3ed9f0eafdacc956ec52288cc417ea8cb7e722814d62f960",0.02,"Will claude-opus-5.5-high be the best AI model on October 19, 2026?",{"condition_id":725,"outcome":42,"usdc":726,"entry_price":727,"won":12,"source":343,"end_date_iso":577,"captured_at":363,"question":728,"event_slug":729,"category":38},"0x51001e33ac97da61e423b92b88e5441d93a8d5ec0a55bd03160006f35c72a747",222.68887999999998,0.718499135371464,"Will Moonshot be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?","second-best-code-arena-webdev-ai-lab-end-of-september-20260722215814727",{"condition_id":731,"outcome":29,"usdc":732,"entry_price":679,"won":12,"source":343,"end_date_iso":733,"captured_at":363,"question":734,"event_slug":552,"category":357},"0x5251dbef886735cb92be0f5e1e4b7b0e5d85aa54c6a44e5e3fe9344dd5a55b21",88,"2026-08-15T23:59:00Z","Next Google Gemini Flash Model released by August 15, 2026?",{"condition_id":736,"outcome":42,"usdc":737,"entry_price":738,"won":17,"source":343,"end_date_iso":707,"captured_at":354,"question":739,"event_slug":709,"category":357},"0x52b778f18fff7ecc7cfc0a1cdc389ee65f5ef98b2222030a8b132cfcdb6d4369",53.8528,0.5747363927427962,"Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in April 2026?",{"condition_id":736,"outcome":29,"usdc":741,"entry_price":742,"won":12,"source":343,"end_date_iso":707,"captured_at":354,"question":739,"event_slug":709,"category":357},47.4272,0.7207692307692309,{"condition_id":744,"outcome":29,"usdc":745,"entry_price":746,"won":12,"source":343,"end_date_iso":577,"captured_at":363,"question":747,"event_slug":748,"category":38},"0x5356a8b0fb19306f9169a74d6578088d7d7d6438c821234abcd0900aa81890ec",76.70643,0.4856924071082391,"Will Meta be the #2 AI lab at the end of September 2026?","2-ai-lab-end-of-september-style-control-on-20260722222005322",{"condition_id":750,"outcome":42,"usdc":751,"entry_price":752,"won":17,"source":343,"end_date_iso":577,"captured_at":363,"question":753,"event_slug":754,"category":38},"0x537df24dbae425e973a421983b6ee570d582cac06b5fdbebef099d3d07913985",31.02,0.15,"Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?","which-company-has-the-best-ai-model-end-of-september-20260717143435868",{"condition_id":750,"outcome":29,"usdc":756,"entry_price":757,"won":12,"source":343,"end_date_iso":577,"captured_at":363,"question":753,"event_slug":754,"category":38},101.00752,0.87,{"condition_id":759,"outcome":29,"usdc":760,"entry_price":761,"won":12,"source":343,"end_date_iso":362,"captured_at":363,"question":762,"event_slug":763,"category":38},"0x53dcc4ebc77570254ef6088a5b93f2a2589eb2c37d7026e6f80f89d8e06fb511",8.37696,0.416802444,"Will OpenAI resume US ChatGPT Pro signups by September 30, 2026?","openai-resumes-us-chatgpt-pro-20x-signups-byptptpt",{"condition_id":765,"outcome":42,"usdc":766,"entry_price":767,"won":17,"source":343,"end_date_iso":590,"captured_at":354,"question":768,"event_slug":769,"category":357},"0x5444d004368f72aa8e64d1774399c8bd2606652eecb950872a5bd0072e2fb1ac",12.9646,0.039634920634920634,"Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1530?","claude-mythos-arena-debut",{"condition_id":771,"outcome":42,"usdc":772,"entry_price":773,"won":12,"source":343,"end_date_iso":590,"captured_at":363,"question":774,"event_slug":775,"category":357},"0x54644fe42bf2db082bd02694ba14f6acd0b610cf0559287166933523cef6c47e",45.768613,0.5700000019968279,"US announces new Iran agreement\u002Fceasefire extension by May 24?","us-announces-new-iran-agreementceasefire-extension-by",{"condition_id":777,"outcome":29,"usdc":778,"entry_price":779,"won":17,"source":343,"end_date_iso":780,"captured_at":354,"question":781,"event_slug":782,"category":38},"0x54932d5d01139e72c7bc93bb9573df278b0100738e292d1f7c19771eea74deda",16.486828,0.1494544650890185,"2026-05-31T00:00:00Z","Will Google have the #3 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?","which-company-has-the-3-ai-model-end-of-may-style-control-on",{"condition_id":784,"outcome":42,"usdc":785,"entry_price":786,"won":17,"source":343,"end_date_iso":362,"captured_at":363,"question":787,"event_slug":788,"category":461},"0x56fda0f04440ef5a2b8f4cb1d33e256f0e28d5cb635d812b1314c8078a0a1b1d",23.2,0.58,"Trump renames AI by September 30?","trump-renames-ai-by-september-30",{"condition_id":790,"outcome":29,"usdc":791,"entry_price":792,"won":17,"source":343,"end_date_iso":353,"captured_at":354,"question":793,"event_slug":487,"category":38},"0x572d474a2eaef4e5f26c31a3129e7d089883cddfd120d9ab5546d99953cc97b7",108.68524000000001,0.3389336009685847,"Will Google have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?",{"condition_id":795,"outcome":42,"usdc":796,"entry_price":797,"won":12,"source":343,"end_date_iso":590,"captured_at":354,"question":798,"event_slug":799,"category":357},"0x5840df9420fd17bc2513782e3b7372a4ae09f1e3260c71e450767d9c2a81238e",50.13043,0.2,"Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480?","openais-astra-model-text-arena-debut",{"condition_id":795,"outcome":29,"usdc":801,"entry_price":802,"won":17,"source":343,"end_date_iso":590,"captured_at":354,"question":798,"event_slug":799,"category":357},901.2261899999999,0.6782956733513451,{"condition_id":804,"outcome":29,"usdc":805,"entry_price":806,"won":12,"source":343,"end_date_iso":807,"captured_at":354,"question":808,"event_slug":809,"category":38},"0x5a2f58c07be8f99012ca65766c9c727afecbe61d30914210f91d0cf704267b62",398.8730099999999,0.7839110390193713,"2026-07-31T00:00:00Z","Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of July 2026?","which-company-has-the-2-ai-model-end-of-july-style-control-on",{"condition_id":811,"outcome":42,"usdc":812,"entry_price":813,"won":12,"source":343,"end_date_iso":814,"captured_at":13,"question":815,"event_slug":379,"category":38},"0x5a67813b0f2dd140deb556c582e5c4f727565e6b235b5effe336aab1a11f7bcc",91.49676999999998,0.6126838011498139,"2026-10-11T03:59:00Z","Gemini 4.0 released by October 10, 2026?",{"condition_id":811,"outcome":29,"usdc":817,"entry_price":818,"won":17,"source":343,"end_date_iso":814,"captured_at":13,"question":815,"event_slug":379,"category":38},1.2309269999999999,0.029999999999999995,{"condition_id":820,"outcome":29,"usdc":821,"entry_price":822,"won":17,"source":343,"end_date_iso":399,"captured_at":363,"question":823,"event_slug":537,"category":357},"0x5c751136f8a0de402aba5c586a3687bac0d2646c55101ece39d87e1170436d49",313.57946,0.5258618453610006,"Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 40% or higher?",{"condition_id":825,"outcome":29,"usdc":826,"entry_price":827,"won":17,"source":343,"end_date_iso":828,"captured_at":13,"question":829,"event_slug":830,"category":38},"0x5e00766716611ceeb1122fe25dc948a847a0bd055bbb93427d266178618a791f",24.16352,0.39333333333333337,"2026-10-05T23:59:00Z","Will claude-fable-5.1-max be the best AI model on October 5, 2026?","best-ai-model-on-october-5",{"condition_id":832,"outcome":42,"usdc":833,"entry_price":757,"won":12,"source":343,"end_date_iso":701,"captured_at":13,"question":834,"event_slug":505,"category":38},"0x5ec99fe0d43cfdbd8b3052f113d06e13bcc481d94abd3618429dae514f6b2445",21.8631,"Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026?",{"condition_id":836,"outcome":42,"usdc":837,"entry_price":838,"won":17,"source":343,"end_date_iso":839,"captured_at":13,"question":840,"event_slug":841,"category":38},"0x60d964a1d5a77456e7a03dc6732460f92923e7a70e8bb7ae5f054076320e2b90",50.67364,0.77,"2026-10-16T03:59:00Z","OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by October 15?","openai-reports-another-ai-sandbox-escape-byptptpt-20261003",{"condition_id":843,"outcome":29,"usdc":844,"entry_price":845,"won":12,"source":343,"end_date_iso":846,"captured_at":354,"question":847,"event_slug":848,"category":357},"0x616841e9a65363fcc9a59ddd8adfecc7f3592a18689b95f2f5807dc43174f282",152.04066,0.6397872340425532,"2026-09-01T03:59:00Z","Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?","best-chinese-ai-company-end-of-august-20260717004241592",{"condition_id":850,"outcome":42,"usdc":851,"entry_price":852,"won":12,"source":343,"end_date_iso":90,"captured_at":13,"question":853,"event_slug":407,"category":38},"0x6684a9238fe94d1d86c8c4d75956ec0c8483dd4f68da83d94a378334a054b28c",261.51668,0.7036266123557366,"Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?",{"condition_id":855,"outcome":42,"usdc":856,"entry_price":857,"won":12,"source":343,"end_date_iso":362,"captured_at":363,"question":858,"event_slug":379,"category":38},"0x6753180082c3024e0727352387066cabf13fd2ebea317ec4394baa8d8a86c1ea",85.49999999999999,0.8549999999999999,"Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?",{"condition_id":860,"outcome":42,"usdc":861,"entry_price":589,"won":17,"source":343,"end_date_iso":862,"captured_at":363,"question":863,"event_slug":864,"category":357},"0x697ee11b54dd9ecb1250ddf7390fe6bacdbad7540cdef76f3993c7bdfea947a9",2.28746,"2026-06-08T00:00:00Z","Will Apple announce all six next-generation operating systems during the WWDC 2026 keynote?","what-will-apple-announce-at-apple-wwdc-2026",{"condition_id":866,"outcome":42,"usdc":867,"entry_price":868,"won":17,"source":343,"end_date_iso":362,"captured_at":363,"question":869,"event_slug":870,"category":38},"0x6b0142f2a37f6d576452e7c2a98a46fdca2ab0ed309a2edc3d160c6f2dcb8d0a",49.4592,0.24,"Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by September 30, 2026?","next-google-gemini-pro-model-released-onptptpt-20260817141404356",{"condition_id":872,"outcome":29,"usdc":873,"entry_price":874,"won":12,"source":343,"end_date_iso":875,"captured_at":363,"question":876,"event_slug":877,"category":357},"0x6ee04b6b579501f37cc59873e2407a6f1c4fc2fd5c237b1e1084aade945d04e1",29.24754,0.83,"2026-06-06T16:00:00Z","Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking have the best AI model on June 6, 2026?","best-ai-model-on-june-6-style-control-off",{"condition_id":879,"outcome":42,"usdc":432,"entry_price":880,"won":17,"source":343,"end_date_iso":90,"captured_at":13,"question":881,"event_slug":882,"category":38},"0x7209592f294c2b3a7230ea66a4483ecfe1a57ae79144e5e735654829e00cfc68",0.1899999726,"Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?","will-apple-release-a-foldable-iphone-before-2027",{"condition_id":884,"outcome":42,"usdc":885,"entry_price":886,"won":12,"source":343,"end_date_iso":814,"captured_at":13,"question":887,"event_slug":559,"category":38},"0x73b75bcd715537d54e1718ee9978ff4c168a41d118a308a86ed7cccd603a90e7",25.22504,0.5242270224481154,"OpenAI resumes training by October 10, 2026?",{"condition_id":889,"outcome":42,"usdc":890,"entry_price":891,"won":17,"source":343,"end_date_iso":701,"captured_at":13,"question":892,"event_slug":481,"category":38},"0x7813494eb8d9097d9f396d09ae4ad835e818f26f9adb720d78c9ae88a25188c6",7.8096,0.48,"Gemini Argon released by October 14, 2026?",{"condition_id":894,"outcome":42,"usdc":895,"entry_price":896,"won":17,"source":343,"end_date_iso":90,"captured_at":363,"question":897,"event_slug":898,"category":38},"0x79307c54be4721fda43bac290c137d32a674a4b0322940e86a94524f0c1fc268",10.30698,0.08949604031677466,"Will Google have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?","which-companies-will-have-a-1-ai-model-by-december-31",{"condition_id":894,"outcome":29,"usdc":900,"entry_price":901,"won":12,"source":343,"end_date_iso":90,"captured_at":363,"question":897,"event_slug":898,"category":38},17.56809,0.874,{"condition_id":903,"outcome":29,"usdc":904,"entry_price":905,"won":17,"source":343,"end_date_iso":577,"captured_at":363,"question":906,"event_slug":748,"category":38},"0x79b038f0b10a53c2668eca7315b8a14af20f3d49aa3cc6fd8ff623bbe67ec24f",4.246449999999999,0.19877777777777778,"Will Alibaba be the #2 AI lab at the end of September 2026?",{"condition_id":908,"outcome":42,"usdc":909,"entry_price":910,"won":17,"source":343,"end_date_iso":911,"captured_at":354,"question":912,"event_slug":913,"category":357},"0x7b2b0ac174514a7ec6351f91a01edd5064cf670c29f539cdfcc4d88bdb9937d0",11.10593,0.21893677576743242,"2026-07-31T23:59:00Z","Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 31, 2026?","next-claude-opus-released-byptptpt-20260701204710232",{"total":915,"wins":916},220,108,[918,923,928,933,937,940],{"category":38,"n":919,"wins":920,"hitRate":921,"roi":922},138,68,0.4927536231884058,0.24589949384992815,{"category":924,"n":199,"wins":925,"hitRate":926,"roi":927},"Other",33,0.532258064516129,-0.05204269416434561,{"category":461,"n":929,"wins":930,"hitRate":931,"roi":932},7,4,0.5714285714285714,-0.40919167667502343,{"category":126,"n":929,"wins":934,"hitRate":935,"roi":936},3,0.42857142857142855,-0.18568256483760132,{"category":605,"n":938,"wins":17,"hitRate":17,"roi":939},5,-1,{"category":941,"n":12,"wins":17,"hitRate":17,"roi":939},"Culture",{"generatedAt":943},"2026-10-26T18:03:48.921Z"]