[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"whale-0x21847e62996173449d295bc00c5d5f427fb500df":3},{"stats":4,"positions":25,"signals":369,"history":370,"resolved":373,"resolvedSummary":950,"specialization":953,"meta":981},{"wallet_address":5,"total_trades":6,"resolved_trades":7,"win_rate":8,"roi":9,"brier_score":10,"p_value":11,"is_sharp":12,"updated_at":13,"is_profitable":12,"avg_position_size_usdc":14,"churn_ratio":15,"last_trade_at":16,"wash_suspect":17,"discovery_source":18,"avg_entry_price":19,"avg_edge":20,"total_pnl_usdc":21,"total_capital_usdc":22,"composite_score":23,"late_entry_share":24,"is_resolution_sniper":17},"0x21847e62996173449d295bc00c5d5f427fb500df",2499,1349,0.3988139362490734,0.4260528743739714,0.12437927413063202,0.0020000000000000018,1,"2026-09-25T01:41:33.242Z",3.062997756856929,1.59375,"2026-09-23T16:00:05.000Z",0,"trades",0.3361217776779099,0.06269215857116382,1760.4436489898837,4131.983973999997,3.7785229774843225,0.040769230769230766,[26,39,48,57,65,73,84,92,100,109,118,125,134,140,147,154,163,170,178,187,196,204,211,219,227,235,242,250,257,264,271,277,287,292,298,305,312,318,328,333,341,348,356,363],{"token_id":27,"condition_id":28,"outcome":29,"size":30,"avg_price":31,"updated_at":32,"first_seen_at":33,"question":34,"event_slug":35,"active":12,"closed":17,"accepting_orders":12,"end_date_iso":36,"outcome_prices":37,"category":38},"56465933220082022835700817063946174635909725507734416248556389304448520396318","0x30174f3f46398e37c96a07b45916e01eab9a8a854ecb624ac73a91a8490fd074","No",191.96,0.42,"2026-09-26T16:49:21.894Z","2026-09-25T02:35:27.491Z","US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?","us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-byptptpt-20260713152715080","2026-10-01T03:59:00Z","[\"0.0415\", \"0.9585\"]","Politics",{"token_id":40,"condition_id":41,"outcome":29,"size":42,"avg_price":43,"updated_at":32,"first_seen_at":33,"question":44,"event_slug":45,"active":12,"closed":17,"accepting_orders":12,"end_date_iso":46,"outcome_prices":47,"category":38},"48727431314333088243693016929623363710488980152833544156961659445129455301311","0x5c79dfde05559b79a9cb9f7c4187e4d49632dd042572ae676952f812732591cc",202.76,0.2726,"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?","strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31","2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","[\"0.205\", \"0.795\"]",{"token_id":49,"condition_id":50,"outcome":29,"size":51,"avg_price":52,"updated_at":32,"first_seen_at":33,"question":53,"event_slug":54,"active":12,"closed":17,"accepting_orders":12,"end_date_iso":46,"outcome_prices":55,"category":56},"7372974787747703468363173511100619071382102470973414293127030322668458888034","0x6f3c4a19afe0621f5bfd39a18625ec392dcd695c34a708f02a52c96ed3436773",77.22,0.6955,"Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?","which-companies-will-have-a-1-ai-model-by-december-31","[\"0.195\", \"0.805\"]","Tech",{"token_id":58,"condition_id":59,"outcome":29,"size":60,"avg_price":61,"updated_at":32,"first_seen_at":33,"question":62,"event_slug":63,"active":12,"closed":17,"accepting_orders":12,"end_date_iso":46,"outcome_prices":64,"category":38},"76326875711147697076353707331532227929486722415800396469798548611383212234361","0xf2bf04609e7458df56c9bb4b1e051286dea11da1c944bbc1dafbcc6b76904e52",49.8955,0.7764,"NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?","nato-x-russia-military-clash-in-2025","[\"0.295\", \"0.705\"]",{"token_id":66,"condition_id":67,"outcome":29,"size":68,"avg_price":69,"updated_at":32,"first_seen_at":33,"question":70,"event_slug":71,"active":12,"closed":17,"accepting_orders":12,"end_date_iso":46,"outcome_prices":72,"category":38},"1910830010387565971650098373488592514702818137344973088263643820608151819241","0x5db999fad322cea2914535aae5517060c3f80ad6d8c0231cde2124a434d16846",32.37,0.7774,"Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?","will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027","[\"0.165\", \"0.835\"]",{"token_id":74,"condition_id":75,"outcome":76,"size":77,"avg_price":78,"updated_at":32,"first_seen_at":33,"question":79,"event_slug":80,"active":12,"closed":17,"accepting_orders":12,"end_date_iso":81,"outcome_prices":82,"category":83},"113490599713343239474742133261226316445685307560192467398065406223877237611912","0xa1c436770d0eab2961940d7320b769c57bd0c2fd6ef8387207de99a20c821702","Yes",55.07,0.4399,"Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in September?","what-price-will-wti-hit-in-september-2026","2026-10-01T03:59:59.999Z","[\"0.085\", \"0.915\"]","Other",{"token_id":85,"condition_id":86,"outcome":29,"size":87,"avg_price":88,"updated_at":32,"first_seen_at":33,"question":89,"event_slug":90,"active":12,"closed":17,"accepting_orders":12,"end_date_iso":46,"outcome_prices":91,"category":38},"72433435487515814631344400459815549868044734165082020724691045649454520502781","0xbe9d61d80c767264a0adc8a16453fbcaf0413e673e665cc7c14701691143fac0",23.77,0.89,"Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?","will-ukraine-recapture-crimean-territory-by-june-30-2026","[\"0.0345\", \"0.9655\"]",{"token_id":93,"condition_id":94,"outcome":76,"size":95,"avg_price":96,"updated_at":32,"first_seen_at":33,"question":97,"event_slug":98,"active":12,"closed":17,"accepting_orders":12,"end_date_iso":99,"outcome_prices":82,"category":38},"6220545533865458838439353925905089798175804014497201461345552520180406649867","0x9bb80411fb159d9f3798fe125672a61af141f7dc7d5465c14a5936e4ba878e49",151.42,0.1395,"Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?","bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by","2026-11-01T03:59:00Z",{"token_id":101,"condition_id":102,"outcome":76,"size":103,"avg_price":104,"updated_at":32,"first_seen_at":33,"question":105,"event_slug":106,"active":12,"closed":17,"accepting_orders":12,"end_date_iso":36,"outcome_prices":107,"category":108},"72553231469503258934682335115918345236910461135264323052802687282932120691754","0x6f04e616ffd50454ef05e49c23098c3f1d2fbd5bc154cb2f240660df8290aa73",54.4,0.3374,"Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?","strc-hits-100-by-20260618001620693","[\"0.08\", \"0.92\"]","Crypto",{"token_id":110,"condition_id":111,"outcome":76,"size":112,"avg_price":113,"updated_at":32,"first_seen_at":33,"question":114,"event_slug":115,"active":12,"closed":17,"accepting_orders":12,"end_date_iso":116,"outcome_prices":117,"category":38},"59469762577014994344194653703640155028433303239421426759172783613957227351480","0xb892396ad371095964a0f3106a6b338e26c645dcf11dea14e162ebc7f7aa25b4",70.94,0.2572,"Will Anna Kelly be the next White House Press Secretary?","who-will-trump-pick-as-the-next-press-secretary-20260812210729848","2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","[\"0.16\", \"0.84\"]",{"token_id":119,"condition_id":120,"outcome":29,"size":121,"avg_price":122,"updated_at":32,"first_seen_at":33,"question":123,"event_slug":54,"active":12,"closed":17,"accepting_orders":12,"end_date_iso":46,"outcome_prices":124,"category":56},"87776551521086909015404743795861053336332516477385720525496340588765026194632","0xec0012c7d5a63f984424b8d00e60e8b09e43ed12f55c0f10803a7756e06ac2f5",19.31,0.9398,"Will Meituan have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?","[\"0.0255\", \"0.9745\"]",{"token_id":126,"condition_id":127,"outcome":76,"size":128,"avg_price":129,"updated_at":32,"first_seen_at":33,"question":130,"event_slug":131,"active":12,"closed":17,"accepting_orders":12,"end_date_iso":132,"outcome_prices":133,"category":108},"81376564113205313962670402623035723408891351486682543183723967037757376935125","0x89b80e42d59b2fd03f3ee592ab7e0114b2d96beb6fa14ba51cfce53b5f6279df",38.08,0.4554,"Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81","will-microstrategy-announce-holding-800k-btc-by-december-31-2026","2027-01-01T05:00:00Z","[\"0.075\", \"0.925\"]",{"token_id":135,"condition_id":136,"outcome":29,"size":137,"avg_price":138,"updated_at":32,"first_seen_at":33,"question":139,"event_slug":63,"active":12,"closed":17,"accepting_orders":12,"end_date_iso":99,"outcome_prices":72,"category":38},"66797176836865406644675050248194264952001579179703527537658211196864343226792","0x2a4fcda5c1598fc8621cf96cabc410f9f23a2d0336c3bff5070a37a663d39e94",17.08,0.9182,"NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?",{"token_id":141,"condition_id":142,"outcome":29,"size":143,"avg_price":144,"updated_at":32,"first_seen_at":33,"question":145,"event_slug":54,"active":12,"closed":17,"accepting_orders":12,"end_date_iso":46,"outcome_prices":146,"category":56},"34196034233397903439062324176478808036092931875798802757020802056702398852308","0xff372e02c13dfbbe388958727c0d7e37a3ff00d6349031e2854427d83fc0c8ce",16.31,0.9597,"Will Mistral have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?","[\"0.0245\", \"0.9755\"]",{"token_id":148,"condition_id":149,"outcome":29,"size":150,"avg_price":151,"updated_at":32,"first_seen_at":33,"question":152,"event_slug":54,"active":12,"closed":17,"accepting_orders":12,"end_date_iso":46,"outcome_prices":153,"category":56},"100095507697121393965523155687850692743109582661831101435385757438810131716267","0xd9eaacb65adac13538f933532cb6fe4415dba2d42a9f460457a7ecb10ea63374",14.8,0.9007,"Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?","[\"0.055\", \"0.945\"]",{"token_id":155,"condition_id":156,"outcome":76,"size":157,"avg_price":158,"updated_at":32,"first_seen_at":33,"question":159,"event_slug":160,"active":12,"closed":17,"accepting_orders":12,"end_date_iso":161,"outcome_prices":162,"category":56},"5021614414922553267909991362622767100415129036441921357925291384449897495066","0xe16d6ef2442a8877d457ad2292e6f9832f569911685d5f2e7b0c89fbcf75cb7b",50.81,0.2462,"Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?","which-company-has-the-best-code-arena-webdev-ai-model-end-of-september-20260717140116512","2026-09-30T16:00:00Z","[\"0.982\", \"0.018\"]",{"token_id":164,"condition_id":165,"outcome":29,"size":166,"avg_price":167,"updated_at":32,"first_seen_at":33,"question":168,"event_slug":35,"active":12,"closed":17,"accepting_orders":12,"end_date_iso":99,"outcome_prices":169,"category":38},"77737603049704371401985143030203551130624520784925815473217168646825527075459","0xcee04ba47d02f6c64642369b34193c355f64de1b9ae425c71ea4efef1989d271",33.26,0.3697,"US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?","[\"0.275\", \"0.725\"]",{"token_id":171,"condition_id":172,"outcome":29,"size":173,"avg_price":174,"updated_at":32,"first_seen_at":33,"question":175,"event_slug":176,"active":12,"closed":17,"accepting_orders":12,"end_date_iso":177,"outcome_prices":153,"category":38},"106457173661711072800954463114296112322414039881870249204907915075846013240261","0x7a611b2ae4e3b871580dececcf7cf126eead47fe58ebea15b1865a7c8a881376",13.2,0.91,"Iran leadership change by November 30?","iran-leadership-change-by","2026-12-01T04:59:00Z",{"token_id":179,"condition_id":180,"outcome":29,"size":181,"avg_price":182,"updated_at":32,"first_seen_at":33,"question":183,"event_slug":184,"active":12,"closed":17,"accepting_orders":12,"end_date_iso":185,"outcome_prices":186,"category":38},"74076568846866714142503847026760702713555643778038790220454009063912340064073","0x84c625fdccf5c5246a15e476361e4563033906ee225800e1136c0d737596a72f",14.46,0.83,"Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?","russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-by","2024-11-28T04:59:00Z","[\"0.135\", \"0.865\"]",{"token_id":188,"condition_id":189,"outcome":76,"size":190,"avg_price":191,"updated_at":32,"first_seen_at":33,"question":192,"event_slug":193,"active":12,"closed":17,"accepting_orders":12,"end_date_iso":99,"outcome_prices":194,"category":195},"28124160639561291369865852757900361591346814138837883756455228145975719395425","0xb818eb1084fdbc85161dda72c93e1e2da6eb3cc675aa815becb69f45f30683c9",40.47,0.27,"Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?","iran-charges-hormuz-fees-byptptpt-20260625175035466","[\"0.105\", \"0.895\"]","Geopolitics",{"token_id":197,"condition_id":198,"outcome":29,"size":199,"avg_price":200,"updated_at":32,"first_seen_at":33,"question":201,"event_slug":202,"active":12,"closed":17,"accepting_orders":12,"end_date_iso":46,"outcome_prices":203,"category":38},"18702020867581976905619984893323736143098724607754292117438927457109238679413","0xe846dd72f8a654ef137a3e23a88226400b42cc0ca817ab4390a615860e08cafa",16.35,0.6388,"Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?","iran-agrees-to-surrender-enriched-uranium-stockpile-by","[\"0.065\", \"0.935\"]",{"token_id":205,"condition_id":206,"outcome":76,"size":207,"avg_price":208,"updated_at":32,"first_seen_at":33,"question":209,"event_slug":193,"active":12,"closed":17,"accepting_orders":12,"end_date_iso":36,"outcome_prices":210,"category":195},"44007830652896102192190752247260840647145635365565932624201614697565663183502","0x6b6fc067a481ea2426eab480e4041751f2d21b3af575e08be54d20f6dcdfe783",46.16,0.15,"Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?","[\"0.019\", \"0.981\"]",{"token_id":212,"condition_id":213,"outcome":29,"size":214,"avg_price":215,"updated_at":32,"first_seen_at":33,"question":216,"event_slug":217,"active":12,"closed":17,"accepting_orders":12,"end_date_iso":46,"outcome_prices":218,"category":56},"54606743820663580146767842026841210666064038872184147302547411093987823418871","0xdf246fb418f8f1ab06eab9b1c0e2c6e9bef099f18b8fb74c3eceffbd7410413d",13.46,0.491,"Will SpaceX have between 140-159 launches in 2026?","how-many-spacex-launches-in-2026","[\"0.771\", \"0.229\"]",{"token_id":220,"condition_id":221,"outcome":29,"size":222,"avg_price":223,"updated_at":32,"first_seen_at":33,"question":224,"event_slug":225,"active":12,"closed":17,"accepting_orders":12,"end_date_iso":36,"outcome_prices":226,"category":38},"111344475342969784116702975577723982549674037196345086059563486202499238579830","0xa08a5ce99e14ce0b22767af6f16c08a2ab012249444c20887193a9a3e98e11fc",14.29,0.43,"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?","strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-september-30-20260702154339440","[\"0.0045\", \"0.9955\"]",{"token_id":228,"condition_id":229,"outcome":29,"size":230,"avg_price":231,"updated_at":32,"first_seen_at":33,"question":232,"event_slug":233,"active":12,"closed":17,"accepting_orders":12,"end_date_iso":177,"outcome_prices":234,"category":38},"106375876055695859045413141458606643340242853794519126089005356920987236120368","0xd64b917e1f7cdf1ad3f51326cf8985ce80e140291d2eaf2bf62821ef02231550",8.83,0.69,"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?","strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-november-30-20260810151158765","[\"0.13\", \"0.87\"]",{"token_id":236,"condition_id":237,"outcome":29,"size":238,"avg_price":239,"updated_at":32,"first_seen_at":33,"question":240,"event_slug":241,"active":12,"closed":17,"accepting_orders":12,"end_date_iso":99,"outcome_prices":133,"category":38},"112428165813371561912833460698436648539922320261306010177252036814838759682453","0x405b56fc75f56d7635a94df9836d6cb6f9b9571d1fd33eb165c1e59d1d11801f",8,0.76,"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?","strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-october-31-20260810151043583",{"token_id":243,"condition_id":244,"outcome":29,"size":245,"avg_price":246,"updated_at":32,"first_seen_at":33,"question":247,"event_slug":248,"active":12,"closed":17,"accepting_orders":12,"end_date_iso":46,"outcome_prices":249,"category":195},"102786085887857979139535483943398860886101437713725608378274903006411942857480","0x5eb3964d1bb946a1034c6c32c8df4d5ac5e0b76a676e7e16280c1737aee06d2d",6.98,0.87,"Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?","which-countries-will-recognize-israel-by-december-31","[\"0.1\", \"0.9\"]",{"token_id":251,"condition_id":252,"outcome":29,"size":253,"avg_price":254,"updated_at":32,"first_seen_at":33,"question":255,"event_slug":54,"active":12,"closed":17,"accepting_orders":12,"end_date_iso":46,"outcome_prices":256,"category":56},"13400318834997091556647785726226883067460379889678560807092035158206698321980","0x5ea9363a7dcccda830cad72d005d5afa597857fecda881b998b433c02c27b513",6.46,0.9399,"Will Microsoft have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?","[\"0.045\", \"0.955\"]",{"token_id":258,"condition_id":259,"outcome":29,"size":260,"avg_price":261,"updated_at":32,"first_seen_at":33,"question":262,"event_slug":35,"active":12,"closed":17,"accepting_orders":12,"end_date_iso":46,"outcome_prices":263,"category":38},"39147524522707536456910747992621671433032838141439193264830818731544404472030","0x46ca741da4abd7ffa993f59ac65bfe83de43ae027accac71d263a493e44064e7",29.91,0.203,"US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?","[\"0.5745\", \"0.4255\"]",{"token_id":265,"condition_id":266,"outcome":29,"size":267,"avg_price":268,"updated_at":32,"first_seen_at":33,"question":269,"event_slug":54,"active":12,"closed":17,"accepting_orders":12,"end_date_iso":46,"outcome_prices":270,"category":56},"36136059052713963055376455066088612405225737607621775103472565534306327538275","0xd6e6a84dff227314b82e5ebc66f62611ef4f6c25a349c591f16bd699184a1e83",6.6,0.9199,"Will Moonshot have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?","[\"0.0325\", \"0.9675\"]",{"token_id":272,"condition_id":273,"outcome":29,"size":274,"avg_price":174,"updated_at":32,"first_seen_at":33,"question":275,"event_slug":276,"active":12,"closed":17,"accepting_orders":12,"end_date_iso":46,"outcome_prices":203,"category":38},"106181075047366745139197108801635573283215248045056329679360376976893016488727","0xbb4d51e6364066d92eb6f9b8413dd7193de70966736044463b205834805a1f3b",6.67,"Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?","will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-the-end-of-2026",{"token_id":278,"condition_id":279,"outcome":29,"size":280,"avg_price":281,"updated_at":32,"first_seen_at":33,"question":282,"event_slug":283,"active":12,"closed":17,"accepting_orders":12,"end_date_iso":284,"outcome_prices":285,"category":286},"10387082384623460395105998262869803827673430000053837049704050347550307230927","0xa37893b16f97b1775e1e9c66e4574202586bcae0508f908ea303219cc8dd0f92",6.32,0.9599,"Will a hurricane make landfall in New York by November 30, 2026?","where-will-a-hurricane-make-landfall-in-the-us-during-the-2026-hurricane-season","2026-12-08T04:59:00Z","[\"0.033\", \"0.967\"]","Science",{"token_id":288,"condition_id":289,"outcome":29,"size":280,"avg_price":281,"updated_at":32,"first_seen_at":33,"question":290,"event_slug":283,"active":12,"closed":17,"accepting_orders":12,"end_date_iso":284,"outcome_prices":291,"category":286},"81622777219119655652340708258040006860761849394845798475419939086342198216662","0xa015179a9c8dbcf7e8354b4a19c883bd094dfb118178085f95d94ca870776169","Will a hurricane make landfall in Connecticut by November 30, 2026?","[\"0.026\", \"0.974\"]",{"token_id":293,"condition_id":294,"outcome":29,"size":253,"avg_price":295,"updated_at":32,"first_seen_at":33,"question":296,"event_slug":297,"active":12,"closed":17,"accepting_orders":12,"end_date_iso":46,"outcome_prices":203,"category":83},"55646219597856189899881677374172135376492662817148728033424581863530537477107","0x32e869cb0f7316273417ec79aa94c8a139f8c390ebff8a24150a18753d257f8e",0.9299,"Will GameStop acquire eBay?","will-gamestop-acquire-ebay",{"token_id":299,"condition_id":300,"outcome":29,"size":301,"avg_price":302,"updated_at":32,"first_seen_at":33,"question":303,"event_slug":304,"active":12,"closed":17,"accepting_orders":12,"end_date_iso":36,"outcome_prices":226,"category":56},"62936310840105689108717822718501557258089837447110279895441357410068926836944","0x8e2ae8908d9492fd0e6006d5bcdf46ff9b95f67254d8bda8da8fe89086c49fb5",6.37,0.9429,"Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in September?","will-claude-go-down-on-days-in-september",{"token_id":306,"condition_id":307,"outcome":29,"size":308,"avg_price":309,"updated_at":32,"first_seen_at":33,"question":310,"event_slug":176,"active":12,"closed":17,"accepting_orders":12,"end_date_iso":46,"outcome_prices":311,"category":38},"60499458684380641857666641513383149627633695110197406276308452075860198022694","0x377e7fe65cf198a7fc4fdae3f2136b74729279267858daaf96718b23bc2a5607",7.15,0.84,"Iran leadership change by December 31?","[\"0.115\", \"0.885\"]",{"token_id":313,"condition_id":314,"outcome":29,"size":308,"avg_price":315,"updated_at":32,"first_seen_at":33,"question":316,"event_slug":317,"active":12,"closed":17,"accepting_orders":12,"end_date_iso":46,"outcome_prices":133,"category":195},"48536131737315453741171594009376383990142554346916924101466379487979001336178","0xbef8c052aca381908541276ef2e56f3b1920599750b1d7e10dbd306f65b08c70",0.8399,"Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027?","will-wildberries-announce-bankruptcy-before-2027-20260723171611669",{"token_id":319,"condition_id":320,"outcome":321,"size":322,"avg_price":323,"updated_at":32,"first_seen_at":33,"question":324,"event_slug":325,"active":12,"closed":17,"accepting_orders":12,"end_date_iso":326,"outcome_prices":327,"category":56},"51304003362239709880504968390039580061990214698769992358487552410838121726408","0xc289a877bc155123069739b21d690b3e8dc220b98f6ae3924468bbcbdfaf98dc","Anthropic",7.7,0.7799,"Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?","will-anthropic-or-openai-ipo-first","2028-01-01T04:59:00Z","[\"0.952\", \"0.048\"]",{"token_id":329,"condition_id":330,"outcome":29,"size":245,"avg_price":331,"updated_at":32,"first_seen_at":33,"question":332,"event_slug":184,"active":12,"closed":17,"accepting_orders":12,"end_date_iso":185,"outcome_prices":256,"category":38},"66115275931876214717212754719566717986599297258235137414466645861814839112268","0xde5c4c7f05b34f4774d07fec9aa9cf880555f95ddcce4c7830ab09daecc493c4",0.86,"Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?",{"token_id":334,"condition_id":335,"outcome":76,"size":336,"avg_price":337,"updated_at":32,"first_seen_at":33,"question":338,"event_slug":339,"active":12,"closed":17,"accepting_orders":12,"end_date_iso":99,"outcome_prices":340,"category":56},"68078935114524021997910962679757987638473539130247054589847481924647902196800","0x092f0fc94b42a22d82d38ea96a905a3624bb57d8f5fea2d503a7a3f0230cb766",8.96,0.6699,"Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?","gemini-4pt0-released-by-june-30-2026","[\"0.735\", \"0.265\"]",{"token_id":342,"condition_id":343,"outcome":76,"size":344,"avg_price":345,"updated_at":32,"first_seen_at":33,"question":346,"event_slug":80,"active":12,"closed":17,"accepting_orders":12,"end_date_iso":81,"outcome_prices":347,"category":83},"89542488140701002795860247565641013960145453279785346506670235100882608783461","0xc102a040f2842be662d0544d0b68f048e805d0210fe2a3b1cb83521d29584f2d",30,0.2,"Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in September?","[\"0.0145\", \"0.9855\"]",{"token_id":349,"condition_id":350,"outcome":29,"size":351,"avg_price":352,"updated_at":32,"first_seen_at":33,"question":353,"event_slug":354,"active":12,"closed":17,"accepting_orders":12,"end_date_iso":36,"outcome_prices":355,"category":56},"105498034969114562563845696055773597805208225964315627442199399082270230172417","0x248b833b63690e2987378ec6661acdca0cdfc77eef1b38bbba3b2925277dcd77",6.52,0.92,"Will SpaceX have 15+ launches in September 2026?","how-many-spacex-launches-in-september-2026","[\"0.0015\", \"0.9985\"]",{"token_id":357,"condition_id":358,"outcome":76,"size":359,"avg_price":360,"updated_at":32,"first_seen_at":33,"question":361,"event_slug":362,"active":12,"closed":17,"accepting_orders":12,"end_date_iso":46,"outcome_prices":117,"category":195},"91347242536105459969213788769929618447748782724898414007495579710952664644740","0x3de0f3d7d7efb40cde68e814d40a0b232832083653c8e78260eb999baa967de0",15.07,0.18,"US strike on Cuba by December 31?","us-strike-on-cuba-by",{"token_id":364,"condition_id":365,"outcome":29,"size":366,"avg_price":268,"updated_at":32,"first_seen_at":33,"question":367,"event_slug":54,"active":12,"closed":17,"accepting_orders":12,"end_date_iso":46,"outcome_prices":368,"category":56},"32307345914009260064876743711940227861457551618575662927746078574273624512389","0x076729655c5138c73a60e73e2633cddf2b72fa055deb452b3f07bd608df06fa9",1.33,"Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?","[\"0.07\", \"0.93\"]",[],[371],{"recorded_date":372,"roi":9,"win_rate":8,"brier_score":10,"p_value":11,"resolved_trades":7,"is_sharp":12,"is_profitable":12},"2026-09-25",[374,383,390,397,403,410,417,422,429,435,441,448,455,460,467,474,481,484,489,495,500,505,511,516,521,528,535,542,545,552,559,566,574,579,585,592,597,603,608,614,619,626,631,637,640,645,651,656,663,666,673,680,686,691,696,702,709,715,718,724,727,733,738,744,751,758,761,767,772,778,781,788,795,800,807,814,817,823,828,833,838,842,848,854,860,865,870,877,883,889,892,899,904,910,916,921,927,932,938,944],{"condition_id":375,"outcome":29,"usdc":376,"entry_price":377,"won":17,"source":378,"end_date_iso":379,"captured_at":13,"question":380,"event_slug":381,"category":382},"0x044f2bc7ad15a4f257818c06d52809f657225b33c5f383ba5f69148763284fae",3.1229080000000002,0.14100000438360843,"backfill","2026-04-01T22:00:00Z","Will Trump say \"Hormuz\" during Address to the Nation?","what-will-trump-say-during-address-to-the-nation-on-april-1",null,{"condition_id":384,"outcome":29,"usdc":385,"entry_price":386,"won":17,"source":378,"end_date_iso":387,"captured_at":13,"question":388,"event_slug":389,"category":382},"0x05e5da8d450e07ecd1f4d490715961c9972a99bd4fbd06ef2961bbd9316c51a5",2.6796,0.22,"2026-03-27T00:00:00Z","Will Trump say \"Tractor\" during National Agriculture Day events?","what-will-trump-say-during-national-agriculture-day-events-on-march-27",{"condition_id":391,"outcome":76,"usdc":392,"entry_price":393,"won":17,"source":378,"end_date_iso":394,"captured_at":13,"question":395,"event_slug":396,"category":382},"0x0a2d679061801f07c1ec866fe3b0a699b76a79553d004fd8ce1d43ea9bf8454d",1.2729,0.03,"2026-04-30T00:00:00Z","Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?","avg-of-ships-transiting-strait-of-hormuz-end-of-april",{"condition_id":398,"outcome":76,"usdc":399,"entry_price":393,"won":17,"source":378,"end_date_iso":400,"captured_at":13,"question":401,"event_slug":402,"category":195},"0x0aa39356ae41f2915cdca46ac972c96d7d5779a5f936bbe79af9e17e998f826b",1.1964,"2026-05-31T00:00:00Z","Will Canada send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?","which-countries-will-send-warships-through-the-strait-of-hormuz-by-may-31",{"condition_id":404,"outcome":76,"usdc":405,"entry_price":406,"won":17,"source":378,"end_date_iso":407,"captured_at":13,"question":408,"event_slug":409,"category":56},"0x0bd1b836a2494f80aaee62927cf01e5f6fceb19114e96fc517c6440aea4576e4",297.00942999999995,0.09535175813168865,"2026-06-30T00:00:00Z","Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?","which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-june",{"condition_id":411,"outcome":76,"usdc":412,"entry_price":413,"won":12,"source":378,"end_date_iso":414,"captured_at":13,"question":415,"event_slug":416,"category":382},"0x0de3f76fe9b60857833856bec4f30d815cdb0c283361112b46e13b759cd8ef38",6.016,0.8,"2026-04-10T00:00:00Z","US x Iran ceasefire by April 10?","us-x-iran-ceasefire-by",{"condition_id":418,"outcome":29,"usdc":419,"entry_price":239,"won":12,"source":378,"end_date_iso":400,"captured_at":13,"question":420,"event_slug":421,"category":38},"0x0e4a0c937b8934c2475613b6322b3f8edc8dedc24762e01e42b0e6f87424a089",9.0136,"US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?","us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by",{"condition_id":423,"outcome":29,"usdc":424,"entry_price":425,"won":12,"source":378,"end_date_iso":426,"captured_at":13,"question":427,"event_slug":428,"category":38},"0x0f4f0fe506891f560fb594af964dc5f75e378c22341b4c6311f73bf0ea6d0eb5",1.6405,0.85,"2026-08-01T03:59:00Z","US charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026?","us-charges-hormuz-fees-byptptpt-20260713151243232",{"condition_id":430,"outcome":76,"usdc":431,"entry_price":432,"won":12,"source":378,"end_date_iso":400,"captured_at":13,"question":433,"event_slug":434,"category":38},"0x1167bc7dd9cf2ae83a22c2f4ca73e53d73dabffdb32922c5002e93b3fa5c5c7e",6.00768,0.894,"Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in May?","who-will-trump-speak-to-in-may",{"condition_id":436,"outcome":76,"usdc":437,"entry_price":345,"won":12,"source":378,"end_date_iso":438,"captured_at":13,"question":439,"event_slug":440,"category":382},"0x136f4e242faeb42f66fa6baf4c192fbfa0b5788ed47a2bf1a3d3a2051b87715a",6.002,"2026-07-31T23:59:00Z","Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?","us-announces-blockade-on-iran-byptptpt-20260622191049039",{"condition_id":442,"outcome":29,"usdc":443,"entry_price":444,"won":12,"source":378,"end_date_iso":445,"captured_at":13,"question":446,"event_slug":447,"category":382},"0x1507c50c86fb307e4f1acd9d740b2be66d98773f90d161e94907d8ef2c5699b3",6.083,0.79,"2026-04-21","Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?","trump-announces-end-of-military-operations-against-iran-by",{"condition_id":449,"outcome":76,"usdc":450,"entry_price":451,"won":12,"source":378,"end_date_iso":452,"captured_at":13,"question":453,"event_slug":454,"category":382},"0x1508aaec300bbf690ee9b8d53f17d484773bb6448c8a5cf3b0e2edceb751a3a1",0.0552,0.23,"2026-03-25T00:00:00Z","Will Trump say \"Cheat\" or \"Cheater\" or \"Cheated\" or \"Cheating\" 10+ times at the NRCC Dinner on March 25?","what-will-trump-say-during-nrcc-dinner-on-march-25",{"condition_id":456,"outcome":29,"usdc":457,"entry_price":458,"won":12,"source":378,"end_date_iso":379,"captured_at":13,"question":459,"event_slug":381,"category":382},"0x17a327228d0b68ed039f00b8ab4834ed8e4c21a1dc2093e3eeb6926e326fa375",30.597342,0.6837831717561524,"Will Trump say \"MAGA\" or \"Make America Great Again\" during Address to the Nation?",{"condition_id":461,"outcome":76,"usdc":462,"entry_price":463,"won":17,"source":378,"end_date_iso":464,"captured_at":13,"question":465,"event_slug":466,"category":382},"0x186733e78213058e9e5bcb47085f6fffdf491f72a8e233cbc6f2fa107090f4b0",30.459210000000002,0.04837252255113708,"2026-05-03T00:00:00Z","Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?","how-many-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-week-of-apr-27",{"condition_id":468,"outcome":29,"usdc":469,"entry_price":470,"won":12,"source":378,"end_date_iso":471,"captured_at":13,"question":472,"event_slug":473,"category":382},"0x19966af675c9fd1a4db02b3cf7da257cfe505c0ff67332131471e9e03849c520",40.7616,0.5689782244556114,"2026-04-12T00:00:00Z","Will 60 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12?","how-many-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-this-week-apr-6-12",{"condition_id":475,"outcome":29,"usdc":476,"entry_price":477,"won":17,"source":378,"end_date_iso":478,"captured_at":13,"question":479,"event_slug":480,"category":382},"0x1cb2d865f0ee15752a25591ca7cdc28cfa21232915bcb195014dc5b9d2b28b92",29.343485,0.11478736540013199,"2026-08-13T23:59:00Z","Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?","kai-and-speed-beat-minecraft-challenge-byptptpt-20260807141254095",{"condition_id":475,"outcome":76,"usdc":482,"entry_price":483,"won":12,"source":378,"end_date_iso":478,"captured_at":13,"question":479,"event_slug":480,"category":382},6.420310000000001,0.14620556449988503,{"condition_id":485,"outcome":76,"usdc":366,"entry_price":345,"won":12,"source":378,"end_date_iso":486,"captured_at":13,"question":487,"event_slug":488,"category":382},"0x1d6519817ab0fb662a1851a48a8203bc3068f2ee10180be46d109cc3ae811d56","2026-04-19T00:00:00Z","Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be between 12 and 15 on April 19, 2026?","avg-of-ships-transiting-strait-of-hormuz-on-april-19",{"condition_id":490,"outcome":29,"usdc":491,"entry_price":492,"won":12,"source":378,"end_date_iso":493,"captured_at":13,"question":494,"event_slug":421,"category":38},"0x1db02ba50e2312a62b4104de691cc7a76065d8d0da40decf93eb1b914a3217b7",6.0147,0.815,"2026-05-15T00:00:00Z","US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?",{"condition_id":496,"outcome":76,"usdc":497,"entry_price":498,"won":17,"source":378,"end_date_iso":400,"captured_at":13,"question":499,"event_slug":402,"category":195},"0x1db0aa493f422a594d476d6e7a4bd7a8e32d776077cffaa5183e51b5fff1881b",0.5316,0.04,"Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?",{"condition_id":501,"outcome":76,"usdc":502,"entry_price":503,"won":17,"source":378,"end_date_iso":471,"captured_at":13,"question":504,"event_slug":473,"category":382},"0x1dd421987f66dbe0ab3e9ba57b4ff7583e90b88ac3335c3d5fe9ace7e75bc0ca",10.708810000000001,0.028397045954761217,"Will 20-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12?",{"condition_id":506,"outcome":29,"usdc":507,"entry_price":508,"won":12,"source":378,"end_date_iso":407,"captured_at":13,"question":509,"event_slug":510,"category":56},"0x1ea03c4c7961402d2e494e7382aa127ed94745f08e11f21829f0e622fc1874a4",25.328699999999998,0.722438676554478,"Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?","which-companies-will-have-a-1-ai-model-by-june-30",{"condition_id":512,"outcome":76,"usdc":513,"entry_price":514,"won":17,"source":378,"end_date_iso":379,"captured_at":13,"question":515,"event_slug":381,"category":382},"0x2010c3c04e78d655317922635679c4dfbd5b7238c2b26382281a6a8ac96a6a03",10.571,0.2852401511063141,"Will Trump say \"Kharg\" or \"Island\" during Address to the Nation?",{"condition_id":517,"outcome":76,"usdc":518,"entry_price":223,"won":12,"source":378,"end_date_iso":519,"captured_at":13,"question":520,"event_slug":421,"category":38},"0x20af55ab35186377b81219db6cb8615240cba42cea41731091be9484a5f5b122",12.0056,"2026-07-31T00:00:00Z","US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?",{"condition_id":522,"outcome":29,"usdc":523,"entry_price":524,"won":17,"source":378,"end_date_iso":525,"captured_at":13,"question":526,"event_slug":527,"category":56},"0x21bf1efeebc29453cbf2fddc7aad97bcb44b6219c2f20d8b6b6ac299b7830dd1",5.99323,0.38,"2026-09-25T03:59:00Z","Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 24, 2026?","next-claude-opus-released-byptptpt-20260727142323912",{"condition_id":529,"outcome":76,"usdc":530,"entry_price":531,"won":17,"source":378,"end_date_iso":532,"captured_at":13,"question":533,"event_slug":534,"category":382},"0x22aea1ae66f31c2151e45c78e43f4bb3b146115aa46821de743b0815d1db5430",0.17825,0.023,"2026-05-10T00:00:00Z","Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10?","how-many-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-week-of-may-4",{"condition_id":536,"outcome":29,"usdc":537,"entry_price":538,"won":17,"source":378,"end_date_iso":539,"captured_at":13,"question":540,"event_slug":541,"category":38},"0x2358809f9f612f8fb4f224b342ba2841ca644a6e3c46adb4c3bcee910cc31632",4.3626000000000005,0.20510578279266575,"2026-06-30T16:00:00Z","Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?","will-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-by-june-30",{"condition_id":536,"outcome":76,"usdc":543,"entry_price":544,"won":12,"source":378,"end_date_iso":539,"captured_at":13,"question":540,"event_slug":541,"category":38},30.2808,0.847726763717805,{"condition_id":546,"outcome":76,"usdc":547,"entry_price":548,"won":17,"source":378,"end_date_iso":549,"captured_at":13,"question":550,"event_slug":551,"category":195},"0x23591cceaef52994b5cc694e439eb68e205ed068b2d3902b94b223c312cce8e2",5.122370999999999,0.017109462640480327,"2026-06-01T00:00:00Z","Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1?","how-many-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-week-of-may-25",{"condition_id":553,"outcome":29,"usdc":554,"entry_price":555,"won":12,"source":378,"end_date_iso":556,"captured_at":13,"question":557,"event_slug":558,"category":38},"0x274cec202608757e62a0cf64ec63a3a814a6cc23a1bff1819b437362c5c16732",3.01368,0.433,"","Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?","which-countries-will-recognize-israel-by-june-30",{"condition_id":560,"outcome":29,"usdc":561,"entry_price":562,"won":17,"source":378,"end_date_iso":563,"captured_at":13,"question":564,"event_slug":565,"category":382},"0x27eaf8537f9019846eaf3d6d3377930f06d0a81d25bf2db7b93719a299595fcd",6.14554,0.643,"2026-09-30T23:59:00Z","Will Kai and Speed have between 30 and 49 total in-game deaths during their Minecraft marathon?","of-in-game-deaths-during-kai-and-speed-minecraft-marathon-20260807224247497",{"condition_id":567,"outcome":76,"usdc":568,"entry_price":569,"won":17,"source":378,"end_date_iso":570,"captured_at":13,"question":571,"event_slug":572,"category":573},"0x293ed83ff451fbfd454eb09985f6707c5c33a30cf79ba98bf45ccf2fa553438f",6.30705,0.34,"2026-06-12T02:00:00Z","Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11?","fifwc-kr-cze-2026-06-11","Sports",{"condition_id":575,"outcome":76,"usdc":576,"entry_price":386,"won":17,"source":378,"end_date_iso":407,"captured_at":13,"question":577,"event_slug":578,"category":382},"0x29b3fe40c6be708ba307e621698f5eea25e8e7fa4e45320c0f675405b3eabac0",3.1103,"Will SpaceX have exactly 13 launches in June 2026?","how-many-spacex-launches-in-june-2026",{"condition_id":580,"outcome":76,"usdc":581,"entry_price":582,"won":17,"source":378,"end_date_iso":400,"captured_at":13,"question":583,"event_slug":584,"category":56},"0x2ae22e1fd29651ed6f049114672a0be94b907e833485a7a6d0c7df2dc7f03ce9",23.146299999999997,0.17,"Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?","which-company-has-the-best-ai-model-end-of-may",{"condition_id":586,"outcome":29,"usdc":587,"entry_price":588,"won":17,"source":378,"end_date_iso":589,"captured_at":13,"question":590,"event_slug":591,"category":382},"0x2b3f7a15096d6026fb4a1b974bf3aceebd831074a1d9d254fdf0c1f07dc0f3bc",9.64403,0.05390356247449129,"2026-05-19T04:00:00Z","Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 12-18?","will-microstrategy-announce-a-bitcoin-purchase-may-12-18",{"condition_id":593,"outcome":76,"usdc":594,"entry_price":239,"won":17,"source":378,"end_date_iso":556,"captured_at":13,"question":595,"event_slug":596,"category":382},"0x2c1849a3164b5d121ce386f72d3ea1580caedc239f4be2f63c9d9183dc47556b",13.34752,"Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1480?","next-google-gemini-model-arena-debut",{"condition_id":598,"outcome":29,"usdc":599,"entry_price":600,"won":12,"source":378,"end_date_iso":394,"captured_at":13,"question":601,"event_slug":602,"category":38},"0x2d7ff3eaa920d560debfac34e360670462e1e5ab35f653c9da992b45a854058b",40.5553,0.8583132275132276,"Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by March 31?","bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-march-31",{"condition_id":604,"outcome":76,"usdc":605,"entry_price":606,"won":17,"source":378,"end_date_iso":426,"captured_at":13,"question":607,"event_slug":193,"category":195},"0x3029c39e379d8b803324ca969a972810ecc8c6078fe56b52c082f8e535645b9f",8.5272,0.05999999999999999,"Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 31?",{"condition_id":609,"outcome":29,"usdc":610,"entry_price":386,"won":17,"source":378,"end_date_iso":611,"captured_at":13,"question":612,"event_slug":613,"category":38},"0x3088733a3d7f03d026035f6dd7df44a82c59eeb95545dda3889b65baa9a36e82",9.497399999999999,"2026-06-21T00:00:00Z","US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?","us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-329",{"condition_id":615,"outcome":76,"usdc":616,"entry_price":617,"won":12,"source":378,"end_date_iso":471,"captured_at":13,"question":618,"event_slug":473,"category":382},"0x30a5bc9701d7a29237f05fd6a76678d139413124a12092b7d1c334926f7a5425",5.65752,0.14286666666666667,"Will 40-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12?",{"condition_id":620,"outcome":29,"usdc":621,"entry_price":622,"won":12,"source":378,"end_date_iso":623,"captured_at":13,"question":624,"event_slug":625,"category":382},"0x328d4deb2696a72d4acf38bd030df0012a199afdd21ed7e86337de1f0ccad63e",5.47279,0.887,"2026-04-30","Will SpaceX have exactly 16 launches in April?","how-many-spacex-launches-in-april",{"condition_id":627,"outcome":29,"usdc":628,"entry_price":629,"won":17,"source":378,"end_date_iso":379,"captured_at":13,"question":630,"event_slug":381,"category":382},"0x33995cb475afc041bc8ab7df04845aca749f110eaa94be7d584210402fe0553c",5.8262,0.5445046728971963,"Will Trump say \"God\" 3+ times during Address to the Nation?",{"condition_id":632,"outcome":29,"usdc":633,"entry_price":634,"won":12,"source":378,"end_date_iso":407,"captured_at":13,"question":635,"event_slug":636,"category":195},"0x348cd9adf4f6855f58bd9c6dbf9ff251c4142ef77233a5dc95c65b4b61cd2187",130.1715,0.7798903600742916,"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?","strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-end-of-june",{"condition_id":632,"outcome":76,"usdc":638,"entry_price":639,"won":17,"source":378,"end_date_iso":407,"captured_at":13,"question":635,"event_slug":636,"category":195},93.6275,0.16999999999999998,{"condition_id":641,"outcome":29,"usdc":642,"entry_price":643,"won":12,"source":378,"end_date_iso":556,"captured_at":13,"question":644,"event_slug":596,"category":382},"0x354d2fabf6f9c52f57aca5eaa8af025a7f27b27a3614482127a1fdac14976bff",10.98597,0.8055187637969095,"Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1520?",{"condition_id":646,"outcome":76,"usdc":647,"entry_price":648,"won":17,"source":378,"end_date_iso":649,"captured_at":13,"question":650,"event_slug":421,"category":38},"0x366f89649caea042c96ee741b185461ec7faa408a2664ec44469a0061924b537",6.1908,0.33,"2026-06-07T00:00:00Z","US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?",{"condition_id":652,"outcome":76,"usdc":653,"entry_price":654,"won":12,"source":378,"end_date_iso":452,"captured_at":13,"question":655,"event_slug":454,"category":382},"0x3704e11cca183c77fa5c2898047f560c6d3ba5ca1882439e3ef547c46420ca75",18.105135,0.6931008630621117,"Will Trump say \"Hell\" 8+ times at the NRCC Dinner on March 25?",{"condition_id":657,"outcome":29,"usdc":658,"entry_price":659,"won":12,"source":378,"end_date_iso":660,"captured_at":13,"question":661,"event_slug":662,"category":108},"0x3733a1b647e7364095736ab0966465d896a84cf3b6bc1695ca1f26c3239b3868",87.84279699999999,0.32959930751385863,"2026-07-01T04:00:00Z","MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?","microstrategy-sell-any-bitcoin-in-2025",{"condition_id":657,"outcome":76,"usdc":664,"entry_price":665,"won":17,"source":378,"end_date_iso":660,"captured_at":13,"question":661,"event_slug":662,"category":108},259.84902,0.4299106723721772,{"condition_id":667,"outcome":76,"usdc":668,"entry_price":669,"won":17,"source":378,"end_date_iso":670,"captured_at":13,"question":671,"event_slug":672,"category":382},"0x381524becb55184eb4a11bb0863f3a9c4b08d0f2dfb26b4e4a82cd09783e6e54",1.32507,0.72,"2026-07-27T23:59:00Z","Will Trump say \"Hell\" 7+ times during Michigan remarks?","what-will-trump-say-during-remarks-in-michigan-20260724162420350",{"condition_id":674,"outcome":29,"usdc":675,"entry_price":676,"won":12,"source":378,"end_date_iso":677,"captured_at":13,"question":678,"event_slug":679,"category":108},"0x387b775380721c2fa05dbd2e57b309bc4194261e218c883fa316fd013f71eb28",2.10238,0.049999999999999996,"2026-06-02T04:00:00Z","Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 26-June 1?","will-microstrategy-announce-a-bitcoin-purchase-may-26-june-1",{"condition_id":681,"outcome":76,"usdc":682,"entry_price":683,"won":12,"source":378,"end_date_iso":486,"captured_at":13,"question":684,"event_slug":685,"category":382},"0x3941412b11ae9b812dec52db55e99b1465a7f4a3b95e364d58ce7c943bf95018",4.11704,0.424,"Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19?","how-many-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-this-week-apr-13-19",{"condition_id":687,"outcome":29,"usdc":688,"entry_price":689,"won":12,"source":378,"end_date_iso":556,"captured_at":13,"question":690,"event_slug":416,"category":382},"0x3c6bcb7da14ea576e5af25547dbd96f2bb24ac34e748e76aecff2ee9195dd1ac",44.049526,0.7558929049697353,"US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?",{"condition_id":692,"outcome":76,"usdc":693,"entry_price":694,"won":17,"source":378,"end_date_iso":379,"captured_at":13,"question":695,"event_slug":381,"category":382},"0x3c8f8375b9e279afb6892797a2967d897a5a2664a118f7530ef5db237b8f0255",18.1586,0.849723912026205,"Will Trump say \"NATO\" during Address to the Nation?",{"condition_id":697,"outcome":76,"usdc":698,"entry_price":699,"won":17,"source":378,"end_date_iso":400,"captured_at":13,"question":700,"event_slug":701,"category":38},"0x3f0743b88ef23a678e1d07fd2fb92badcbbb17aeca7110f188533b081afbd6af",12.449311,0.055281174054455005,"Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?","what-iranian-demands-will-trump-agree-to-by-may-31",{"condition_id":703,"outcome":76,"usdc":704,"entry_price":705,"won":17,"source":378,"end_date_iso":706,"captured_at":13,"question":707,"event_slug":708,"category":382},"0x448067cbd40d6a20f39b6ca24737bfe711059b251f8f7f1663ac8734cc6b9972",5.4798,0.4355961844197138,"2026-05-24T00:00:00Z","Will 20-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24?","how-many-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-week-of-may-18",{"condition_id":710,"outcome":29,"usdc":711,"entry_price":712,"won":12,"source":378,"end_date_iso":471,"captured_at":13,"question":713,"event_slug":714,"category":382},"0x462d6690e064dbd7ee3722658470b9ee1955db208486c7029ecf7871d9e46bf0",5.2074,0.66,"Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8–12?","will-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-april-8-12",{"condition_id":710,"outcome":76,"usdc":716,"entry_price":717,"won":17,"source":378,"end_date_iso":471,"captured_at":13,"question":713,"event_slug":714,"category":382},9.296683999999999,0.1283155043901317,{"condition_id":719,"outcome":29,"usdc":720,"entry_price":721,"won":12,"source":378,"end_date_iso":394,"captured_at":13,"question":722,"event_slug":723,"category":382},"0x471e2fa06bd8975b77be49a36781bc41286d57bffa84de55173f4eacdbd52b28",24.13642,0.8932797927418579,"Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?","will-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-by-end-of-april",{"condition_id":719,"outcome":76,"usdc":725,"entry_price":726,"won":17,"source":378,"end_date_iso":394,"captured_at":13,"question":722,"event_slug":723,"category":382},4.16232,0.047,{"condition_id":728,"outcome":29,"usdc":729,"entry_price":730,"won":12,"source":378,"end_date_iso":731,"captured_at":13,"question":732,"event_slug":35,"category":38},"0x47ec761ae98d7c28b20c0222f1507e3af0f198a904f86b4a264b2e987f0b80c7",55.515199999999986,0.6799999999999997,"2026-09-01T03:59:00Z","US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?",{"condition_id":734,"outcome":29,"usdc":735,"entry_price":246,"won":12,"source":378,"end_date_iso":394,"captured_at":13,"question":736,"event_slug":737,"category":382},"0x48fbf70c1713e71a405052bc4641e26dbba435fa557672c4040763c901cbf606",4.785,"Will Trump visit China by April 30?","will-trump-visit-china-by",{"condition_id":739,"outcome":76,"usdc":740,"entry_price":741,"won":17,"source":378,"end_date_iso":706,"captured_at":13,"question":742,"event_slug":743,"category":38},"0x4ba348328e4d4ddee9e6734c9a369b2e8138611651f9f6dc8f59dea51df6c734",27.0515,0.8177599758162031,"Iran closes its airspace by May 24?","iran-closes-its-airspace-by",{"condition_id":745,"outcome":29,"usdc":746,"entry_price":747,"won":12,"source":378,"end_date_iso":748,"captured_at":13,"question":749,"event_slug":750,"category":195},"0x4befb52f7cd2b606c63731ad74e677325ff0ed0f48f1104552a34f0f54619ea3",18.1361,0.8266226071103008,"2026-03-31T00:00:00Z","Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?","kharg-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-by-march-31",{"condition_id":752,"outcome":29,"usdc":753,"entry_price":754,"won":17,"source":378,"end_date_iso":755,"captured_at":13,"question":756,"event_slug":757,"category":382},"0x4c5701bcde0b8fb7d7f48c8e9d20245a6caa58c61a77f981fad98f2bfa0b1bc7",12.01774,0.8409895031490553,"2026-04-07T00:00:00Z","US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?","us-x-iran-ceasefire-by-april-7",{"condition_id":752,"outcome":76,"usdc":759,"entry_price":760,"won":12,"source":378,"end_date_iso":755,"captured_at":13,"question":756,"event_slug":757,"category":382},12.61834,0.7722362301101591,{"condition_id":762,"outcome":76,"usdc":763,"entry_price":231,"won":12,"source":378,"end_date_iso":764,"captured_at":13,"question":765,"event_slug":766,"category":573},"0x4cd77d456c83e7d8c569a8fb8f6396c3f40154f657e6d970733e2b1b6a7110ff",18.7545,"2026-06-11T19:00:00Z","Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?","fifwc-mex-rsa-2026-06-11",{"condition_id":768,"outcome":76,"usdc":769,"entry_price":770,"won":17,"source":378,"end_date_iso":471,"captured_at":13,"question":771,"event_slug":473,"category":382},"0x4f3be223a7fb240b7ceb9afc13f440792d3b2cb18a64cb192c58e7cfacf44108",6.76651,0.08707386436752027,"Will 30-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12?",{"condition_id":773,"outcome":29,"usdc":774,"entry_price":775,"won":12,"source":378,"end_date_iso":400,"captured_at":13,"question":776,"event_slug":777,"category":195},"0x518a5b030b205706b8ffe6bbad9bd3de59548348e5c0471827f5de21e513333c",10.985,0.460973562736047,"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?","strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-end-of-may",{"condition_id":773,"outcome":76,"usdc":779,"entry_price":780,"won":17,"source":378,"end_date_iso":400,"captured_at":13,"question":776,"event_slug":777,"category":195},8.15792,0.1517470238095238,{"condition_id":782,"outcome":76,"usdc":783,"entry_price":784,"won":17,"source":378,"end_date_iso":785,"captured_at":13,"question":786,"event_slug":787,"category":382},"0x518df6d694ad4658fe6c284850c029c6f00c9b3609cf05f7757d1fecba1641f8",36.4498,0.5088622085718275,"2026-08-20T23:59:00Z","US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?","us-iran-60-day-negotiation-period-extended-20260624044855448",{"condition_id":789,"outcome":76,"usdc":790,"entry_price":791,"won":12,"source":378,"end_date_iso":792,"captured_at":13,"question":793,"event_slug":794,"category":382},"0x54206d4a5d865649a7fd42a88358348a194cdd3c33f74b59604c5cf658fff0f8",6.0144,0.895,"2026-03-24T04:00:00Z","Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase March 17-23?","will-microstrategy-announce-a-bitcoin-purchase-march-17-23",{"condition_id":796,"outcome":29,"usdc":797,"entry_price":223,"won":17,"source":378,"end_date_iso":556,"captured_at":13,"question":798,"event_slug":799,"category":382},"0x5444d004368f72aa8e64d1774399c8bd2606652eecb950872a5bd0072e2fb1ac",6.1447,"Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1530?","claude-mythos-arena-debut",{"condition_id":801,"outcome":76,"usdc":802,"entry_price":803,"won":17,"source":378,"end_date_iso":804,"captured_at":13,"question":805,"event_slug":806,"category":382},"0x54e38e5dd8d631184d91b39c2b4b757fce025425d91f985b37b62ece2d6bdadd",85.46777899999998,0.14403984862947802,"2026-03-16T00:00:00Z","Will 40-44 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?","how-many-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-this-week-mar-10-16",{"condition_id":808,"outcome":29,"usdc":809,"entry_price":810,"won":12,"source":378,"end_date_iso":811,"captured_at":13,"question":812,"event_slug":813,"category":382},"0x55937e321733f53af84a7c74884fc86801b97def5b14be888250e7d5057f4be8",136.728102,0.543704676441557,"2026-09-01T03:59:59.999Z","Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?","what-price-will-wti-hit-in-august-2026",{"condition_id":808,"outcome":76,"usdc":815,"entry_price":816,"won":17,"source":378,"end_date_iso":811,"captured_at":13,"question":812,"event_slug":813,"category":382},11.471119999999999,0.18546826308020337,{"condition_id":818,"outcome":29,"usdc":819,"entry_price":820,"won":12,"source":378,"end_date_iso":556,"captured_at":13,"question":821,"event_slug":822,"category":382},"0x5840df9420fd17bc2513782e3b7372a4ae09f1e3260c71e450767d9c2a81238e",21.9602,0.19000000000000003,"Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480?","openais-astra-model-text-arena-debut",{"condition_id":824,"outcome":29,"usdc":825,"entry_price":360,"won":17,"source":378,"end_date_iso":438,"captured_at":13,"question":826,"event_slug":827,"category":382},"0x5a9395dae6c7643ea06e7a555580a5526e81073aea9c9306363529c5b76a8f8b",6.0012,"US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?","us-x-iran-effective-ceasfire-byptptpt-2-week-pause-20260715194822042",{"condition_id":829,"outcome":76,"usdc":830,"entry_price":831,"won":12,"source":378,"end_date_iso":532,"captured_at":13,"question":832,"event_slug":534,"category":382},"0x5c34d9826992a9c141776ad3c467bfd85432b1f92b76e134f7790a173208e374",23.50599,0.8425086021505376,"Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10?",{"condition_id":834,"outcome":29,"usdc":835,"entry_price":836,"won":12,"source":378,"end_date_iso":623,"captured_at":13,"question":837,"event_slug":202,"category":38},"0x5d37825716832a4a54f89450932e89510f26cf4be59aeec3149d2c49e5fdf44d",6.01388,0.772,"Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?",{"condition_id":839,"outcome":76,"usdc":443,"entry_price":840,"won":12,"source":378,"end_date_iso":452,"captured_at":13,"question":841,"event_slug":454,"category":382},"0x5da06d9f92d297902bec82d96668f19a928b31890e19bcf9a8eca918de509b74",0.7,"Will Trump say \"Democrat\" 15+ times at the NRCC Dinner on March 25?",{"condition_id":843,"outcome":76,"usdc":844,"entry_price":845,"won":17,"source":378,"end_date_iso":519,"captured_at":13,"question":846,"event_slug":847,"category":56},"0x5de3afac10b31162a24d1c3dd10cd823d9bbe2fd9aa6e734f07755d2f1cbbaa6",5.86387,0.004384145345989692,"Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?","which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-july-299",{"condition_id":849,"outcome":76,"usdc":850,"entry_price":851,"won":17,"source":378,"end_date_iso":438,"captured_at":13,"question":852,"event_slug":853,"category":382},"0x5f55fb4898ca3fae3f87c99eb5530baed89334cc413e650766526cb7c494c04c",6.2491,0.28917630726515503,"Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?","which-countries-will-send-warships-through-the-strait-of-hormuz-by-july-31-20260701001952738",{"condition_id":855,"outcome":76,"usdc":856,"entry_price":857,"won":12,"source":378,"end_date_iso":858,"captured_at":13,"question":859,"event_slug":480,"category":382},"0x60613b262912ce2e3138ec5610a31a2f932b6300843c094053cb33aaff9f2238",16.30801,0.21459356246590292,"2026-08-17T23:59:00Z","Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?",{"condition_id":861,"outcome":76,"usdc":862,"entry_price":863,"won":12,"source":378,"end_date_iso":400,"captured_at":13,"question":864,"event_slug":421,"category":38},"0x6114a8a3f9ac214f48a7e20d169f1c7a5c84082cb6f7058ed9fe1137b11fd0e7",14.836400000000001,0.37589054978464653,"US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?",{"condition_id":866,"outcome":76,"usdc":867,"entry_price":868,"won":12,"source":378,"end_date_iso":81,"captured_at":13,"question":869,"event_slug":80,"category":83},"0x62cf9f20cd870e990e8f369e96d3a57b82caa931e248355e843239a7ee7fd211",6.05328,0.754,"Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in September?",{"condition_id":871,"outcome":29,"usdc":872,"entry_price":873,"won":17,"source":378,"end_date_iso":874,"captured_at":13,"question":875,"event_slug":876,"category":56},"0x6619036865c2d27f1b1c00cd565ce74f6aa72ef93be29c315be36941d3559c59",6.207,0.3,"2027-12-31T00:00:00Z","SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?","spacex-ipo-closing-market-cap-above",{"condition_id":878,"outcome":29,"usdc":879,"entry_price":360,"won":17,"source":378,"end_date_iso":880,"captured_at":13,"question":881,"event_slug":882,"category":382},"0x6747bae2269c348786d0c0c0f4286ac006f13f16325d4dcbab954b46de029f19",6.3522,"2026-12-31T00:00:00Z","Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?","clavicular-pregnancy-in-2026",{"condition_id":884,"outcome":29,"usdc":885,"entry_price":886,"won":17,"source":378,"end_date_iso":36,"captured_at":13,"question":887,"event_slug":888,"category":56},"0x6a98ff5d9296b7130ba3c6d5978e0777b98f0550341706bef86f7eb390def16b",6.39574,0.523,"Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?","will-any-ai-model-reach-overall-arena-score-by-september-30",{"condition_id":884,"outcome":76,"usdc":890,"entry_price":891,"won":12,"source":378,"end_date_iso":36,"captured_at":13,"question":887,"event_slug":888,"category":56},62.70141600000001,0.4849672305411101,{"condition_id":893,"outcome":76,"usdc":894,"entry_price":895,"won":17,"source":378,"end_date_iso":896,"captured_at":13,"question":897,"event_slug":898,"category":573},"0x6b864f35765706986a861d22fcc207872062186ddcb5fbc20275e991b20ff6ab",6.03631,0.81,"2026-06-13T19:00:00Z","Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?","fifwc-qat-che-2026-06-13",{"condition_id":900,"outcome":29,"usdc":901,"entry_price":88,"won":12,"source":378,"end_date_iso":556,"captured_at":13,"question":902,"event_slug":903,"category":56},"0x6bb06254e8b5d8102d2e57030404a40efeea4e8ad6f39f05801621bd4891326e",17.0702,"Will SpaceX list on the NYSE?","which-exchange-will-spacex-list-on",{"condition_id":905,"outcome":76,"usdc":906,"entry_price":907,"won":17,"source":378,"end_date_iso":908,"captured_at":13,"question":909,"event_slug":202,"category":38},"0x6cb3ec9e0fb1c258898f648f8b33422f59ba3e8a71aee551449d7cb147bb8ead",31.967297999999996,0.3115712063838743,"2026-07-01T03:59:00Z","Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?",{"condition_id":911,"outcome":29,"usdc":912,"entry_price":913,"won":17,"source":378,"end_date_iso":394,"captured_at":13,"question":914,"event_slug":915,"category":382},"0x6d0e09d0f04572d9b1adad84703458b0297bc5603b69dccbde93147ee4443246",14.529899999999998,0.20999999999999996,"US forces enter Iran by April 30?","us-forces-enter-iran-by-april-30-899",{"condition_id":917,"outcome":29,"usdc":918,"entry_price":919,"won":17,"source":378,"end_date_iso":556,"captured_at":13,"question":920,"event_slug":799,"category":382},"0x6fd7deaf6c94cbcdbe1b0e4289c3c6a1482e743759b346fef42df38330e1a52c",16.553269999999998,0.40710480887792844,"Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520?",{"condition_id":922,"outcome":76,"usdc":923,"entry_price":924,"won":12,"source":378,"end_date_iso":623,"captured_at":13,"question":925,"event_slug":926,"category":382},"0x704a7b123805bc24337695f260c664effc8135bfb294336c6415958ab9ceeb77",18.9224,0.8202167316861725,"Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026?","gpt-5pt5-released-on",{"condition_id":928,"outcome":76,"usdc":929,"entry_price":930,"won":12,"source":378,"end_date_iso":379,"captured_at":13,"question":931,"event_slug":381,"category":382},"0x7059202b56c33677ea2df71422506923685c3c5b60c931c8f5bff7460b8b48b4",27.988751999999998,0.6747146997526703,"Will Trump say \"Regime Change\" during Address to the Nation?",{"condition_id":933,"outcome":76,"usdc":934,"entry_price":413,"won":12,"source":378,"end_date_iso":935,"captured_at":13,"question":936,"event_slug":937,"category":382},"0x7519e7850f91515037f4a27b430323eaeb18ebb16b7906f44a4a10b4f7f5f75b",1.79376,"2026-08-31T23:59:00Z","Will Kai or Speed die to a creeper?","which-mobs-will-eliminate-kai-or-speed-20260807215900135",{"condition_id":939,"outcome":29,"usdc":940,"entry_price":941,"won":17,"source":378,"end_date_iso":942,"captured_at":13,"question":943,"event_slug":416,"category":382},"0x773abaa5fe55e5cde51a261f444b7921652a4e059ead6b3be9fe56499c2d4609",32.7869,0.2538668215253581,"2026-04-15T00:00:00Z","US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?",{"condition_id":945,"outcome":76,"usdc":946,"entry_price":947,"won":12,"source":378,"end_date_iso":394,"captured_at":13,"question":948,"event_slug":949,"category":382},"0x77791e343f0c9befba6344921e846af705e5b63937c475d105707dd24a758902",18.08185,0.8288186409550046,"Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?","who-will-trump-talk-to-in-april",{"total":951,"wins":952},203,105,[954,959,964,968,972,977],{"category":83,"n":955,"wins":956,"hitRate":957,"roi":958},123,65,0.5284552845528455,0.24579511084707303,{"category":38,"n":960,"wins":961,"hitRate":962,"roi":963},31,20,0.6451612903225806,0.24508887826398235,{"category":56,"n":961,"wins":965,"hitRate":966,"roi":967},7,0.35,-0.587304086543819,{"category":195,"n":961,"wins":969,"hitRate":970,"roi":971},9,0.45,3.8111820969683774,{"category":108,"n":973,"wins":974,"hitRate":975,"roi":976},5,3,0.6,0.05190898040737189,{"category":573,"n":978,"wins":12,"hitRate":979,"roi":980},4,0.25,-0.2713115891343867,{"generatedAt":982},"2026-09-26T17:23:40.328Z"]